Advanced Stats Saturday: Week 14 2014

PAC-12 Action:

Arizona State at Arizona

	OVERALL		When Arizona State has the ball		When Arizona has the ball
Category	Arizona State	Arizona	ASU Off	UA Def	ASU Def	UA Off
F/+ Rk	23 (19.0%)	29 (14.2%)	25 (8.4%)	42 (6.0%)	24 (9.4%)	28 (7.7%)
S&P+	29 (220.9)	45 (209.7)	35 (109.0)	46 (104.7)	31 (111.9)	42 (105.1)
Play Efficiency			47 (109.0)	48 (107.3)	34 (112.1)	72 (99.8)
Rushing S&P+			74 (99.0)	39 (109.8)	56 (105.1)	62 (102.4)
Passing S&P+			31 (117.7)	57 (102.4)	31 (115.9)	76 (96.9)
Std. Downs S&P+			44 (109.4)	50 (104.6)	42 (109.1)	71 (99.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			50 (106.7)	43 (112.5)	37 (115.9)	62 (101.5)
Drive Efficiency			25 (116.3)	48 (107.3)	26 (120.6)	24 (117.6)

	OVERALL		When Arizona State has the ball		When Arizona has the ball
Category	Arizona State	Arizona	ASU Off	UA Def	ASU Def	UA Off
F/+ Rk	23 (19.0%)	29 (14.2%)	25 (8.4%)	42 (6.0%)	24 (9.4%)	28 (7.7%)
FEI Rk	15 (.190)	13 (.218)	22 (.363)	33 (-.302)	22 (-.389)	18 (.382)
Field Position	23 (.532)	9 (.554)
Raw Efficiency	38 (.076)	23 (.110)	50 (.087)	64 (.011)	33 (-.217)	21 (.375)
First Down rate			32 (.705)	76 (.679)	75 (.677)	4 (.799)
Available Yards rate			40 (.488)	63 (.442)	47 (.424)	20 (.544)
Explosive Drives			54 (.147)	65 (.129)	74 (.138)	21 (.187)
Methodical Drives			80 (.124)	71 (.143)	47 (.131)	37 (.158)
Value Drives			55 (.404)	61 (.365)	39 (.341)	23 (.480)
Special Team rank	39 (.709)	58 (.240)
Field Goal efficiency	22 (.337)	90 (-.206)
Punt Return efficiency	45 (-.022)	72 (-.095)
Kickoff return efficiency	99 (-.213)	89 (-.192)
punt efficiency	29 (-.185)	35 (-.170)
kickoff efficiency	86 (-.098)	21 (-.235)

One of the better games this weekend happens a day early. We still won't know which team is going to play Oregon, but we'll at least know which team will be rooting hardest for Stanford. S+P believes that ASU is a better team overall, specifically on defense - where they have advantages everywhere and very big advantages against the pass an d on passing downs. Arizona's defense is decent, but has a 15-point deficiency against the pass.

FEI paints a different picture entirely, seeing Arizona's offense as very close to ASU's defense - and in particular, very good at getting explosive drives. ASU's offense and Arizona's defense are also very close, with a slight advantage to ASU - mostly in their ability to get field position advantages. Special teams doesn't really favor either team that much save that ASU is better at kicking field goals. If Arizona can get a couple of big plays I think they'll win the game, seeing as it's at home. If ASU can keep them bottled up I think they're better overall.

Stanford at UCLA

	OVERALL		When Stanford has the ball		When UCLA has the ball
Category	Stanford	UCLA	FURD Off	UCLA Def	FURD Def	UCLA Off
F/+ Rk	36 (12.0%)	15 (22.8%)	60 (-0.6%)	33 (7.4%)	12 (13.4%)	10 (14.9%)
S&P+	23 (222.6)	24 (222.1)	62 (99.1)	34 (109.8)	10 (123.5)	29 (112.2)
Play Efficiency			74 (98.9)	27 (116.9)	2 (148.0)	22 (121.9)
Rushing S&P+			88 (94.6)	41 (108.2)	3 (142.3)	21 (123.6)
Passing S&P+			53 (104.4)	16 (125.0)	5 (148.8)	25 (124.1)
Std. Downs S&P+			65 (101.2)	33 (112.4)	5 (133.2)	18 (123.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+			92 (93.3)	23 (126.0)	1 (180.7)	43 (112.1)
Drive Efficiency			48 (106.0)	37 (112.7)	39 (112.3)	26 (115.7)

	OVERALL		When Stanford has the ball		When UCLA has the ball
Category	Stanford	UCLA	FURD Off	UCLA Def	FURD Def	UCLA Off
F/+ Rk	36 (12.0%)	15 (22.8%)	60 (-0.6%)	33 (7.4%)	12 (13.4%)	10 (14.9%)
FEI Rk	35 (.120)	5 (.254)	61 (-.015)	32 (-.306)	14 (-.452)	5 (.692)
Field Position	45 (.508)	68 (.496)
Raw Efficiency	40 (.070)	36 (.079)	71 (-.091)	60 (-.046)	16 (-.379)	28 (.302)
First Down rate			53 (.685)	61 (.667)	80 (.685)	9 (.770)
Available Yards rate			59 (.461)	54 (.429)	19 (.365)	35 (.496)
Explosive Drives			78 (.111)	8 (.058)	15 (.083)	33 (.173)
Methodical Drives			72 (.130)	122 (.203)	84 (.157)	49 (.151)
Value Drives			44 (.418)	35 (.325)	8 (.250)	47 (.415)
Special Team rank	83 (-.416)	55 (.280)
Field Goal efficiency	73 (-.045)	44 (.110)
Punt Return efficiency	67 (-.093)	105 (-.228)
Kickoff return efficiency	80 (-.177)	21 (-.059)
punt efficiency	108 (.055)	55 (-.124)
kickoff efficiency	18 (-.246)	55 (-.181)

Here's another one of those which methodologies suits you better. By S+P this is an even matchup. Both defenses are significantly better than both offenses - but Stanford's defense is way better in every place save standard downs, where they only have a 10 point advantage. That's exactly true for UCLA's defense vs Stanford's offense as well. It might come down, simply, to UCLA's ability to finish drives vs. Stanford's inability to finish drives - UCLA has a small advantage in both offense and defense.

FEI thinks that this is a fairly easy win for UCLA. This is mostly because of schedule; UCLA has still played a very hard set  of defenses and has by FEI the 5th ranked offense in the nation. Because of this, UCLA has distinct advantages on both offense (200 points) and defense (200 points). UCLA will likely have no success on big plays but may get a couple of long drives. Stanford will have almost no chance at all in getting big plays. Special teams also favors UCLA, though both teams match up pretty well on strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness, with the big difference coming down to Stanford's bad field goal kicks. Because this is at UCLA I'd say that they win, but it'll be a close game.

Utah at Colorado

	OVERALL		When Utah has the ball		When Colorado has the ball
Category	Utah	Colorado	Utah Off	UCB Def	Utah Def	UCB Off
F/+ Rk	38 (11.5%)	79 (-8.1%)	74 (-3.4%)	90 (-5.9%)	21 (10.1%)	65 (-1.3%)
S&P+	58 (202.7)	87 (188.8)	85 (94.6)	88 (93.6)	38 (108.1)	82 (95.2)
Play Efficiency			83 (96.3)	71 (99.3)	22 (118.5)	71 (99.9)
Rushing S&P+			71 (99.6)	93 (92.2)	51 (105.9)	84 (95.6)
Passing S&P+			86 (94.1)	52 (104.4)	11 (127.0)	58 (102.3)
Std. Downs S&P+			78 (97.1)	89 (94.2)	15 (120.1)	66 (100.8)
Pass. Downs S&P+			84 (95.6)	35 (116.5)	47 (110.2)	77 (97.2)
Drive Efficiency			65 (101.7)	77 (96.9)	54 (104.6)	84 (94.0)

	OVERALL		When Utah has the ball		When Colorado has the ball
Category	Utah	Colorado	Utah Off	UCB Def	Utah Def	UCB Off
F/+ Rk	38 (11.5%)	79 (-8.1%)	74 (-3.4%)	90 (-5.9%)	21 (10.1%)	65 (-1.3%)
FEI Rk	19 (.170)	75 (-.052)	70 (-.106)	91 (.228)	11 (-.484)	59 (.006)
Field Position	18 (.535)	117 (.455)
Raw Efficiency	56 (.024)	101 (-.115)	110 (-.346)	108 (.329)	26 (-.281)	68 (-.045)
First Down rate			97 (.615)	105 (.734)	47 (.638)	49 (.687)
Available Yards rate			111 (.370)	105 (.529)	35 (.402)	65 (.449)
Explosive Drives			107 (.085)	124 (.238)	53 (.118)	109 (.082)
Methodical Drives			81 (.123)	8 (.070)	85 (.157)	28 (.163)
Value Drives			107 (.295)	102 (.468)	22 (.295)	63 (.380)
Special Team rank	5 (2.659)	87 (-.479)
Field Goal efficiency	4 (.601)	56 (.067)
Punt Return efficiency	7 (.134)	86 (-.150)
Kickoff return efficiency	46 (-.128)	77 (-.171)
punt efficiency	8 (-.294)	66 (-.096)
kickoff efficiency	93 (-.079)	85 (-.102)

Sorry, Buffs, but this doesn't look very good. Utah's fairly meh offense matches up okay with Colorado's defense, but the Colorado offense is likely to hit a brick wall against Utah. Utah's one weakness is against the run, but Colorado isn't particularly good at running the ball - and Utah is great against the pass in general. FEI favors Utah even further, with an even bigger discrepancy towards Utah's defense. Special teams also favors Utah, especially on punt returns, punting, and field goals. This looks like a fairly easy Utah win.

Notre Dame at USC

	OVERALL		When Notre Dame has the ball		When USC has the ball
Category	Notre Dame	USC	ND Off	USC Def	ND Def	USC Off
F/+ Rk	24 (18.8%)	27 (15.6%)	20 (10.3%)	34 (7.4%)	36 (7.2%)	30 (7.3%)
S&P+	22 (225.2)	28 (221.6)	16 (117.6)	36 (109.4)	42 (107.7)	30 (112.2)
Play Efficiency			12 (127.2)	47 (107.5)	50 (105.3)	37 (114.1)
Rushing S&P+			25 (121.5)	59 (103.2)	36 (111.5)	75 (98.7)
Passing S&P+			13 (130.0)	44 (110.0)	72 (97.3)	21 (127.0)
Std. Downs S&P+			12 (126.0)	56 (103.4)	45 (107.2)	70 (99.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+			22 (130.8)	27 (122.3)	72 (98.2)	5 (149.1)
Drive Efficiency			21 (120.4)	23 (121.0)	24 (120.7)	19 (121.1)

	OVERALL		When Notre Dame has the ball		When USC has the ball
Category	Notre Dame	USC	ND Off	USC Def	ND Def	USC Off
F/+ Rk	24 (18.8%)	27 (15.6%)	20 (10.3%)	34 (7.4%)	36 (7.2%)	30 (7.3%)
FEI Rk	28 (.150)	16 (.187)	23 (.345)	31 (-.309)	26 (-.327)	33 (.255)
Field Position	36 (.514)	39 (.512)
Raw Efficiency	32 (.088)	25 (.104)	34 (.222)	59 (-.062)	53 (-.105)	25 (.338)
First Down rate			17 (.741)	95 (.718)	51 (.647)	56 (.683)
Available Yards rate			14 (.550)	65 (.446)	52 (.427)	34 (.496)
Explosive Drives			25 (.178)	16 (.084)	62 (.128)	41 (.163)
Methodical Drives			54 (.148)	105 (.176)	55 (.135)	17 (.179)
Value Drives			9 (.522)	48 (.350)	68 (.390)	59 (.393)
Special Team rank	35 (.739)	50 (.506)
Field Goal efficiency	106 (-.369)	25 (.319)
Punt Return efficiency	30 (.026)	20 (.055)
Kickoff return efficiency	23 (-.067)	32 (-.095)
punt efficiency	52 (-.133)	94 (.001)
kickoff efficiency	52 (-.186)	104 (-.046)

Well, good news Notre Dame fans - advanced stats don't think you suck that much. By S+P you're better than USC, even. Both offenses have small advantages over both defenses. Notre Dame has big wins running and passing, whereas USC is mostly good at passing here and will likely get bottled up on the run. USC is great on  passing downs, so I would expect success on USC's drives even if they're stopped early in the count. FEI thinks much more highly of USC's chances, though looking at the numbers it looks very odd. USC is 16th overall despite having much worse numbers than Notre Dame everywhere. Seriously,  Notre Dame is better on offense, defense and special teams. I don't get it. If Notre Dame has success it'll be on longer drives; same is true for USC. ND also has some small advantages on punts but a big, whopping advantage on kick returns. If Notre Dame can get big plays in the kicking game I can see them winning on the road and making sure we have seven-win Steve again.

BYU at California

	OVERALL		When BYU has the ball		When California has the ball
Category	BYU	California	BYU Off	Cal Def	BYU Def	Cal Off
F/+ Rk	42 (7.7%)	56 (2.2%)	35 (6.6%)	78 (-4.2%)	62 (0.0%)	38 (6.0%)
S&P+	47 (208.2)	64 (200.3)	37 (108.5)	95 (92.7)	59 (99.7)	38 (107.7)
Play Efficiency			35 (115.6)	108 (88.8)	69 (99.5)	24 (120.6)
Rushing S&P+			27 (120.7)	79 (97.3)	45 (106.9)	40 (111.9)
Passing S&P+			42 (111.3)	114 (84.1)	78 (96.5)	23 (124.5)
Std. Downs S&P+			45 (109.2)	96 (91.7)	77 (97.7)	36 (112.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+			14 (136.6)	113 (81.8)	63 (102.8)	6 (144.5)
Drive Efficiency			40 (110.3)	49 (106.3)	67 (99.8)	74 (98.4)

	OVERALL		When BYU has the ball		When California has the ball
Category	BYU	California	BYU Off	Cal Def	BYU Def	Cal Off
F/+ Rk	42 (7.7%)	56 (2.2%)	35 (6.6%)	78 (-4.2%)	62 (0.0%)	38 (6.0%)
FEI Rk	50 (.047)	54 (.042)	32 (.267)	77 (.114)	61 (-.025)	35 (.247)
Field Position	71 (.493)	74 (.491)
Raw Efficiency	47 (.050)	85 (-.060)	57 (.038)	113 (.424)	45 (-.168)	38 (.180)
First Down rate			86 (.640)	122 (.774)	74 (.677)	12 (.759)
Available Yards rate			56 (.463)	121 (.579)	46 (.423)	32 (.500)
Explosive Drives			56 (.144)	107 (.188)	23 (.090)	31 (.173)
Methodical Drives			65 (.136)	104 (.173)	96 (.165)	27 (.165)
Value Drives			40 (.421)	121 (.526)	37 (.333)	48 (.414)
Special Team rank	45 (.585)	62 (.153)
Field Goal efficiency	63 (.021)	61 (.037)
Punt Return efficiency	101 (-.207)	32 (.019)
Kickoff return efficiency	36 (-.109)	19 (-.057)
punt efficiency	13 (-.262)	100 (.012)
kickoff efficiency	60 (-.171)	98 (-.071)

This is another close game that might be decided by home field advantage. Both defenses are at disadvantage too, meaning that this should be a fun game to watch. BYU has about 20 point advantages everywhere on offense; Cal has almost a 30 point advantage passing the ball. They're almost precisely even via FEI as well. BYU is very bad against methodical drives, so Cal should grind out a few here and there - but not be able to get home run threats. Special teams are very close too, though Cal's kickoff returns have a decent advantage. I think Cal can win this game at home and get to bowl eligibility.

Washington at Washington State

	OVERALL		When Washington has the ball		When Washington State has the ball
Category	Washington	Washington State	UW Off	WSU Def	UW Def	WSU Off
F/+ Rk	60 (1.7%)	83 (-8.7%)	88 (-5.4%)	98 (-7.3%)	46 (4.6%)	34 (7.2%)
S&P+	79 (190.8)	69 (196.6)	89 (94.0)	91 (93.2)	74 (96.8)	49 (103.4)
Play Efficiency			77 (98.1)	83 (95.1)	55 (104.4)	44 (109.6)
Rushing S&P+			65 (102.3)	81 (96.9)	43 (107.5)	116 (82.8)
Passing S&P+			77 (96.3)	83 (95.9)	58 (102.2)	36 (115.6)
Std. Downs S&P+			67 (100.6)	98 (91.0)	60 (102.7)	47 (107.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			100 (91.2)	49 (108.5)	51 (107.9)	38 (114.6)
Drive Efficiency			86 (93.4)	72 (98.0)	92 (91.7)	58 (103.3)

	OVERALL		When Washington has the ball		When Washington State has the ball
Category	Washington	Washington State	UW Off	WSU Def	UW Def	WSU Off
F/+ Rk	60 (1.7%)	83 (-8.7%)	88 (-5.4%)	98 (-7.3%)	46 (4.6%)	34 (7.2%)
FEI Rk	45 (.070)	59 (.014)	88 (-.214)	97 (.305)	25 (-.333)	19 (.375)
Field Position	17 (.536)	125 (.435)
Raw Efficiency	45 (.052)	103 (-.119)	89 (-.193)	115 (.430)	27 (-.257)	36 (.212)
First Down rate			103 (.600)	89 (.708)	54 (.652)	35 (.703)
Available Yards rate			90 (.406)	101 (.518)	41 (.415)	30 (.513)
Explosive Drives			70 (.120)	117 (.208)	13 (.074)	45 (.156)
Methodical Drives			58 (.144)	86 (.158)	80 (.156)	5 (.211)
Value Drives			73 (.360)	116 (.514)	51 (.355)	32 (.439)
Special Team rank	20 (1.364)	127 (-4.743)
Field Goal efficiency	28 (.296)	108 (-.381)
Punt Return efficiency	35 (.011)	123 (-.299)
Kickoff return efficiency	17 (-.051)	79 (-.176)
punt efficiency	63 (-.104)	127 (.375)
kickoff efficiency	73 (-.130)	121 (.041)

Good think Washington beat Oregon State, because this looks like a WSU win. S+P favors WSU slightly; the WSU defense is very close to UW with small disadvantages against the run and on standard downs. The bit advantages come against the UW defense, where WSU is great on passing, standard and passing downs against a meh defense. UW is also not very  good at stopping drives, so the usual disadvantage of WSU is probably not so big of a deal. FEI thinks more highly of UW but it's still quite close - and in particular, WSU's ability to grind out long drives should work well here. The one big advantage is on special teams, where UW should be able to get good returns on punts and kicks and have big advantages on field goals. If UW wins, chances are good it's going to be because of hidden yards on returns. Otherwise on the road, I don't like their chances.

The best of the rest:

TCU at Texas

	OVERALL		When TCU has the ball		When Texas has the ball
Category	TCU	Texas	TCU Off	UT Def	TCU Def	UT Off
F/+ Rk	5 (30.4%)	55 (3.3%)	14 (12.5%)	19 (10.6%)	8 (15.0%)	81 (-4.4%)
S&P+	10 (244.3)	35 (215.1)	10 (122.4)	22 (114.5)	15 (121.8)	58 (100.6)
Play Efficiency			15 (125.5)	11 (128.7)	28 (116.3)	56 (103.9)
Rushing S&P+			2 (143.9)	49 (106.6)	14 (127.0)	44 (110.5)
Passing S&P+			40 (113.2)	3 (156.2)	47 (108.2)	69 (99.5)
Std. Downs S&P+			19 (123.0)	10 (122.7)	31 (113.5)	48 (107.2)
Pass. Downs S&P+			24 (129.8)	9 (145.0)	34 (118.3)	89 (93.8)
Drive Efficiency			10 (130.0)	42 (110.6)	6 (143.0)	45 (107.3)

	OVERALL		When TCU has the ball		When Texas has the ball
Category	TCU	Texas	TCU Off	UT Def	TCU Def	UT Off
F/+ Rk	5 (30.4%)	55 (3.3%)	14 (12.5%)	19 (10.6%)	8 (15.0%)	81 (-4.4%)
FEI Rk	7 (.242)	64 (-.007)	17 (.403)	18 (-.423)	8 (-.571)	96 (-.257)
Field Position	7 (.557)	96 (.483)
Raw Efficiency	10 (.201)	61 (.010)	26 (.325)	12 (-.408)	17 (-.371)	92 (-.203)
First Down rate			24 (.733)	18 (.579)	9 (.554)	99 (.610)
Available Yards rate			13 (.554)	14 (.346)	24 (.371)	99 (.392)
Explosive Drives			12 (.207)	10 (.068)	87 (.157)	110 (.081)
Methodical Drives			110 (.095)	95 (.165)	32 (.116)	56 (.147)
Value Drives			20 (.489)	17 (.281)	28 (.313)	87 (.345)
Special Team rank	14 (1.567)	114 (-1.637)
Field Goal efficiency	16 (.409)	99 (-.287)
Punt Return efficiency	10 (.099)	59 (-.070)
Kickoff return efficiency	90 (-.197)	125 (-.302)
punt efficiency	76 (-.070)	79 (-.061)
kickoff efficiency	25 (-.230)	102 (-.063)

Many people are picking this as an upset special, but I don't see it. S+P and FEI both think that Texas's defense can do well against the TCU offense to a point - TCU is murderously good running the ball (better than Oregon, even). Where the problem for Texas is is on offense, where they are either fairly overmatched or absurdly overmatched depending on if you like S+P or FEI more. TCU is also great at special teams and can get good punt returns.

Arkansas at Missouri

	OVERALL		When Arkansas has the ball		When Missouri has the ball
Category	Arkansas	Missouri	ARK Off	UM Def	ARK Def	UM Off
F/+ Rk	22 (19.4%)	33 (12.7%)	22 (9.6%)	15 (12.2%)	16 (11.2%)	62 (-1.0%)
S&P+	18 (233.7)	37 (213.1)	18 (116.4)	23 (114.5)	19 (117.3)	66 (98.6)
Play Efficiency			16 (124.9)	10 (128.9)	12 (127.4)	69 (100.2)
Rushing S&P+			17 (126.1)	9 (131.1)	5 (139.6)	66 (102.2)
Passing S&P+			26 (123.7)	15 (125.7)	24 (119.9)	65 (100.9)
Std. Downs S&P+			26 (118.8)	13 (120.4)	11 (122.6)	63 (102.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			11 (141.7)	8 (149.1)	13 (133.9)	73 (98.4)
Drive Efficiency			17 (123.0)	45 (108.3)	15 (128.6)	55 (103.7)

	OVERALL		When Arkansas has the ball		When Missouri has the ball
Category	Arkansas	Missouri	ARK Off	UM Def	ARK Def	UM Off
F/+ Rk	22 (19.4%)	33 (12.7%)	22 (9.6%)	15 (12.2%)	16 (11.2%)	62 (-1.0%)
FEI Rk	20 (.169)	25 (.156)	26 (.326)	10 (-.512)	20 (-.412)	62 (-.027)
Field Position	34 (.518)	57 (.501)
Raw Efficiency	28 (.094)	24 (.107)	37 (.193)	22 (-.358)	44 (-.173)	49 (.093)
First Down rate			45 (.692)	49 (.645)	24 (.594)	81 (.646)
Available Yards rate			41 (.487)	17 (.354)	33 (.400)	70 (.438)
Explosive Drives			74 (.115)	24 (.091)	66 (.129)	51 (.150)
Methodical Drives			4 (.212)	69 (.140)	27 (.099)	34 (.159)
Value Drives			38 (.429)	21 (.282)	49 (.351)	81 (.350)
Special Team rank	94 (-.758)	31 (.852)
Field Goal efficiency	111 (-.401)	48 (.099)
Punt Return efficiency	126 (-.338)	27 (.036)
Kickoff return efficiency	24 (-.067)	13 (-.026)
punt efficiency	3 (-.362)	75 (-.073)
kickoff efficiency	114 (-.016)	100 (-.066)

If you were looking at this from a win-loss perspective you're looking in the wrong place. Arkansas is a much better team by both stats measures than Missouri and should dominate on defense. The Arkansas offense vs Missouri defense is a close one by comparison and Arkansas will have some difficulty getting drives together - but chances are good they'll at least get some. The one shining light for missouri is on special teams, where Arkansas is horrible at kicking off and Missouri is good getting returns. Still probably not enough.

Georgia Tech at Georgia

	OVERALL		When Georgia Tech has the ball		When Georgia has the ball
Category	Georgia Tech	Georgia	GT Off	UG Def	GT Def	UG Off
F/+ Rk	12 (24.6%)	6 (30.3%)	1 (21.7%)	23 (9.4%)	61 (0.3%)	7 (16.5%)
S&P+	27 (221.7)	14 (237.0)	7 (124.1)	25 (113.2)	68 (97.6)	8 (123.8)
Play Efficiency			3 (139.8)	40 (109.7)	101 (90.7)	4 (139.1)
Rushing S&P+			7 (138.0)	74 (99.7)	108 (85.7)	1 (148.2)
Passing S&P+			4 (147.4)	18 (124.0)	84 (95.8)	12 (131.3)
Std. Downs S&P+			8 (129.0)	32 (113.5)	92 (93.1)	3 (134.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+			3 (168.6)	64 (102.6)	105 (86.6)	7 (143.1)
Drive Efficiency			23 (118.7)	16 (127.4)	31 (115.3)	18 (122.8)

	OVERALL		When Georgia Tech has the ball		When Georgia has the ball
Category	Georgia Tech	Georgia	GT Off	UG Def	GT Def	UG Off
F/+ Rk	12 (24.6%)	6 (30.3%)	1 (21.7%)	23 (9.4%)	61 (0.3%)	7 (16.5%)
FEI Rk	6 (.247)	3 (.273)	1 (.910)	24 (-.371)	58 (-.075)	7 (.616)
Field Position	8 (.556)	1 (.591)
Raw Efficiency	14 (.164)	5 (.241)	5 (.616)	41 (-.194)	81 (.131)	10 (.518)
First Down rate			1 (.830)	25 (.596)	82 (.690)	18 (.740)
Available Yards rate			4 (.611)	23 (.370)	92 (.506)	9 (.577)
Explosive Drives			15 (.191)	19 (.087)	67 (.130)	11 (.208)
Methodical Drives			13 (.191)	53 (.135)	115 (.190)	41 (.156)
Value Drives			4 (.550)	33 (.323)	103 (.468)	11 (.519)
Special Team rank	17 (1.445)	6 (2.437)
Field Goal efficiency	101 (-.295)	62 (.032)
Punt Return efficiency	3 (.198)	6 (.145)
Kickoff return efficiency	39 (-.113)	6 (.066)
punt efficiency	27 (-.197)	61 (-.107)
kickoff efficiency	74 (-.129)	49 (-.188)

Georgia is absolutely beloved by the advanced stats, especially FEI. GT is good but not great. The big thing to consider is that GT's offense has a 40 point advantage running the ball - but Georgia has a 65-point advantage running the ball (and by S+P is the best team in the nation running). Georgia's defense isn't particularly good, but GT's defense is horrible. That being said, GT does do one thing well - get turnovers and drive stops. FEI sees a similar situation, where GT's great offense goes up against a decent defense but Georgia's great offense goes up against a bad defense. Both teams are great on returns as well. This should have a ton of highlight stuff and should be great to watch, but this being at Georgia likely means GT loses.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss

	OVERALL		When Mississippi State has the ball		When Ole Miss has the ball
Category	Mississippi State	Ole Miss	MSST Off	MISS Def	MSST Def	MISS Off
F/+ Rk	4 (31.0%)	9 (28.0%)	12 (13.0%)	4 (18.8%)	6 (17.0%)	27 (7.9%)
S&P+	3 (255.7)	4 (250.2)	4 (128.7)	4 (129.9)	7 (127.0)	14 (120.3)
Play Efficiency			9 (136.2)	3 (144.6)	15 (124.3)	18 (123.5)
Rushing S&P+			5 (139.4)	7 (135.0)	11 (128.3)	51 (108.0)
Passing S&P+			8 (135.5)	2 (156.9)	19 (123.5)	10 (133.5)
Std. Downs S&P+			6 (131.6)	2 (138.7)	17 (119.5)	22 (120.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+			10 (142.0)	3 (161.0)	16 (131.1)	21 (130.8)
Drive Efficiency			5 (134.8)	13 (133.8)	5 (147.0)	2 (140.3)

	OVERALL		When Mississippi State has the ball		When Ole Miss has the ball
Category	Mississippi State	Ole Miss	MSST Off	MISS Def	MSST Def	MISS Off
F/+ Rk	4 (31.0%)	9 (28.0%)	12 (13.0%)	4 (18.8%)	6 (17.0%)	27 (7.9%)
FEI Rk	10 (.229)	12 (.219)	24 (.341)	4 (-.669)	5 (-.610)	43 (.165)
Field Position	25 (.530)	16 (.537)
Raw Efficiency	6 (.233)	13 (.166)	22 (.365)	4 (-.595)	9 (-.481)	56 (.041)
First Down rate			34 (.705)	26 (.598)	35 (.615)	54 (.685)
Available Yards rate			21 (.544)	7 (.326)	25 (.372)	53 (.468)
Explosive Drives			19 (.189)	6 (.054)	40 (.108)	24 (.180)
Methodical Drives			42 (.156)	29 (.107)	17 (.085)	101 (.108)
Value Drives			25 (.471)	5 (.229)	14 (.277)	51 (.408)
Special Team rank	49 (.527)	37 (.727)
Field Goal efficiency	87 (-.157)	92 (-.224)
Punt Return efficiency	115 (-.250)	122 (-.287)
Kickoff return efficiency	14 (-.033)	34 (-.106)
punt efficiency	64 (-.104)	19 (-.248)
kickoff efficiency	7 (-.331)	4 (-.364)

On paper this looks like a great matchup. S+P has these two teams within one spot. Mississippi State is very good on offense, but Ole Miss is still brutal on defense had has advantages most everywhere save against the run. Ole Miss will almost certainly not be able to run the ball, but they should have some success passing. In general, MSST should be able to move the ball more often than Ole Miss does. FEI says a similar thing, though both defenses are favored here - but Ole Miss's offense is what is bringing things down. Both teams are good at special teams too. This being at Ole Miss means that the game is going to be very close, but I'd probably favor Mississippi State to pull it off.

Minnesota at Wisconsin

	OVERALL		When Minnesota has the ball		When Wisconsin has the ball
Category	Minnesota	Wisconsin	UM Off	UW Def	UM Def	UW Off
F/+ Rk	31 (13.9%)	13 (24.0%)	46 (4.4%)	13 (13.3%)	38 (7.0%)	19 (10.4%)
S&P+	40 (212.4)	12 (242.9)	43 (104.6)	12 (122.8)	41 (107.8)	15 (120.1)
Play Efficiency			48 (108.7)	26 (117.0)	31 (113.0)	19 (123.5)
Rushing S&P+			41 (111.0)	26 (116.2)	34 (112.0)	9 (133.3)
Passing S&P+			48 (105.8)	27 (117.8)	34 (113.2)	50 (105.5)
Std. Downs S&P+			46 (108.5)	41 (109.2)	37 (111.0)	10 (127.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+			56 (104.2)	12 (134.7)	39 (115.0)	46 (109.4)
Drive Efficiency			42 (109.7)	11 (135.4)	44 (108.7)	13 (125.0)

	OVERALL		When Minnesota has the ball		When Wisconsin has the ball
Category	Minnesota	Wisconsin	UM Off	UW Def	UM Def	UW Off
F/+ Rk	31 (13.9%)	13 (24.0%)	46 (4.4%)	13 (13.3%)	38 (7.0%)	19 (10.4%)
FEI Rk	30 (.133)	17 (.181)	39 (.197)	13 (-.459)	30 (-.310)	29 (.313)
Field Position	12 (.543)	56 (.501)
Raw Efficiency	35 (.079)	7 (.232)	62 (-.003)	8 (-.525)	36 (-.209)	17 (.432)
First Down rate			70 (.658)	7 (.530)	23 (.593)	48 (.688)
Available Yards rate			62 (.452)	3 (.304)	34 (.401)	19 (.545)
Explosive Drives			95 (.096)	31 (.096)	55 (.124)	2 (.304)
Methodical Drives			38 (.158)	2 (.052)	39 (.124)	89 (.116)
Value Drives			84 (.347)	2 (.186)	27 (.311)	19 (.490)
Special Team rank	19 (1.387)	63 (.142)
Field Goal efficiency	117 (-.483)	11 (.478)
Punt Return efficiency	34 (.014)	23 (.047)
Kickoff return efficiency	10 (.017)	95 (-.201)
punt efficiency	31 (-.181)	116 (.130)
kickoff efficiency	20 (-.238)	67 (-.157)

If you were hoping for Melvin Gordon to not have a good game, you're probably not going to have a good time. Wisconsin has a 20 point advantage running the ball and is in general better on offense across the board, save (unsurprisingly) on passing. UW's defense also has nice advantages across the board. FEI thinks that UW's offense isn't quite so good but sees UW's defense as much better. Minnesota can get some gains returning kicks and punts, but that only goes so far, especially on the road. Wisconsin should win this decisively.

Auburn at Alabama:

	OVERALL		When Auburn has the ball		When Alabama has the ball
Category	Auburn	Alabama	AUB Off	BAMA Def	AUB Def	BAMA Off
F/+ Rk	8 (28.4%)	1 (35.7%)	3 (20.4%)	2 (19.0%)	26 (9.1%)	4 (18.1%)
S&P+	9 (246.6)	1 (266.7)	5 (128.4)	1 (136.1)	16 (118.2)	3 (130.6)
Play Efficiency			8 (136.3)	6 (138.2)	23 (118.2)	7 (136.6)
Rushing S&P+			20 (125.2)	1 (158.6)	21 (124.7)	12 (129.6)
Passing S&P+			1 (159.6)	12 (127.0)	38 (112.7)	3 (147.7)
Std. Downs S&P+			16 (124.4)	1 (139.4)	36 (111.2)	2 (135.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+			2 (169.9)	15 (133.2)	10 (136.6)	19 (132.5)
Drive Efficiency			4 (137.0)	1 (151.8)	8 (138.6)	1 (144.8)

	OVERALL		When Auburn has the ball		When Alabama has the ball
Category	Auburn	Alabama	AUB Off	BAMA Def	AUB Def	BAMA Off
F/+ Rk	8 (28.4%)	1 (35.7%)	3 (20.4%)	2 (19.0%)	26 (9.1%)	4 (18.1%)
FEI Rk	9 (.231)	2 (.297)	2 (.773)	7 (-.592)	38 (-.278)	8 (.605)
Field Position	51 (.504)	101 (.481)
Raw Efficiency	26 (.103)	9 (.205)	11 (.500)	7 (-.530)	71 (.046)	13 (.463)
First Down rate			10 (.766)	32 (.613)	55 (.652)	47 (.692)
Available Yards rate			12 (.565)	11 (.336)	75 (.470)	23 (.540)
Explosive Drives			26 (.178)	4 (.045)	97 (.165)	35 (.168)
Methodical Drives			51 (.150)	101 (.171)	83 (.157)	36 (.159)
Value Drives			12 (.516)	4 (.224)	88 (.429)	17 (.495)
Special Team rank	90 (-.589)	97 (-.777)
Field Goal efficiency	105 (-.361)	89 (-.190)
Punt Return efficiency	39 (-.005)	121 (-.284)
Kickoff return efficiency	127 (-.311)	102 (-.221)
punt efficiency	56 (-.124)	10 (-.279)
kickoff efficiency	46 (-.190)	77 (-.125)

Remember when we thought this was going to potentially be a game to decide the championship in the SEC West? Oh well. Those were good times. Alabama is currently the big darling of S+P - having the best defense and the third best offense. Alabama's offense is where the biggest advantage lies, especially on passing (over 30 points) and on drive efficiency. Alabama's defense is incredibly strong as well and has a 25 point advantage against the run. While Auburn is great passing they don't do it very often, and their success largely stems from having a strong run game. I don't see that happening. It's a smidgen closer from FEI, where Auburn may be able to do better offensively. But again, Auburn's defense pulls them down. Neither team is good at special teams. This being at Alabama I would expect a good win by Alabama, probably in the 10-15 point range.