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Advanced Stats Saturday: Week 14 2014

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Rivalry week brings us hugely important PAC-12 action and some crazy good games around the college football world. This is an extra specially big A.S.S.. And most importantly - who is Oregon going to face in the Pac 12 championship?

He's, like, .9 Osweilers
He's, like, .9 Osweilers
Christian Petersen/Getty Images

PAC-12 Action:

Arizona State at Arizona


OVERALL When Arizona State has the ball When Arizona has the ball
Category Arizona State

Arizona

ASU Off UA Def ASU Def UA Off
F/+ Rk 23 (19.0%) 29 (14.2%) 25 (8.4%) 42 (6.0%) 24 (9.4%) 28 (7.7%)
S&P+ 29 (220.9) 45 (209.7) 35 (109.0) 46 (104.7) 31 (111.9) 42 (105.1)
Play Efficiency

47 (109.0) 48 (107.3) 34 (112.1) 72 (99.8)
Rushing S&P+

74 (99.0) 39 (109.8) 56 (105.1) 62 (102.4)
Passing S&P+

31 (117.7) 57 (102.4) 31 (115.9) 76 (96.9)
Std. Downs S&P+

44 (109.4) 50 (104.6) 42 (109.1) 71 (99.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+

50 (106.7) 43 (112.5) 37 (115.9) 62 (101.5)
Drive Efficiency

25 (116.3) 48 (107.3) 26 (120.6) 24 (117.6)

OVERALL When Arizona State has the ball When Arizona has the ball
Category Arizona State

Arizona

ASU Off UA Def ASU Def UA Off
F/+ Rk 23 (19.0%) 29 (14.2%) 25 (8.4%) 42 (6.0%) 24 (9.4%) 28 (7.7%)
FEI Rk 15 (.190) 13 (.218) 22 (.363) 33 (-.302) 22 (-.389) 18 (.382)
Field Position 23 (.532) 9 (.554)



Raw Efficiency 38 (.076) 23 (.110) 50 (.087) 64 (.011) 33 (-.217) 21 (.375)
First Down rate

32 (.705) 76 (.679) 75 (.677) 4 (.799)
Available Yards rate

40 (.488) 63 (.442) 47 (.424) 20 (.544)
Explosive Drives

54 (.147) 65 (.129) 74 (.138) 21 (.187)
Methodical Drives

80 (.124) 71 (.143) 47 (.131) 37 (.158)
Value Drives

55 (.404) 61 (.365) 39 (.341) 23 (.480)
Special Team rank 39 (.709) 58 (.240)



Field Goal efficiency 22 (.337) 90 (-.206)



Punt Return efficiency 45 (-.022) 72 (-.095)



Kickoff return efficiency 99 (-.213) 89 (-.192)



punt efficiency 29 (-.185) 35 (-.170)



kickoff efficiency 86 (-.098) 21 (-.235)



One of the better games this weekend happens a day early. We still won't know which team is going to play Oregon, but we'll at least know which team will be rooting hardest for Stanford. S+P believes that ASU is a better team overall, specifically on defense - where they have advantages everywhere and very big advantages against the pass an d on passing downs. Arizona's defense is decent, but has a 15-point deficiency against the pass.

FEI paints a different picture entirely, seeing Arizona's offense as very close to ASU's defense - and in particular, very good at getting explosive drives. ASU's offense and Arizona's defense are also very close, with a slight advantage to ASU - mostly in their ability to get field position advantages. Special teams doesn't really favor either team that much save that ASU is better at kicking field goals. If Arizona can get a couple of big plays I think they'll win the game, seeing as it's at home. If ASU can keep them bottled up I think they're better overall.

Stanford at UCLA


OVERALL When Stanford has the ball When UCLA has the ball
Category Stanford

UCLA

FURD Off UCLA Def FURD Def UCLA Off
F/+ Rk 36 (12.0%) 15 (22.8%) 60 (-0.6%) 33 (7.4%) 12 (13.4%) 10 (14.9%)
S&P+ 23 (222.6) 24 (222.1) 62 (99.1) 34 (109.8) 10 (123.5) 29 (112.2)
Play Efficiency

74 (98.9) 27 (116.9) 2 (148.0) 22 (121.9)
Rushing S&P+

88 (94.6) 41 (108.2) 3 (142.3) 21 (123.6)
Passing S&P+

53 (104.4) 16 (125.0) 5 (148.8) 25 (124.1)
Std. Downs S&P+

65 (101.2) 33 (112.4) 5 (133.2) 18 (123.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+

92 (93.3) 23 (126.0) 1 (180.7) 43 (112.1)
Drive Efficiency

48 (106.0) 37 (112.7) 39 (112.3) 26 (115.7)

OVERALL When Stanford has the ball When UCLA has the ball
Category Stanford

UCLA

FURD Off UCLA Def FURD Def UCLA Off
F/+ Rk 36 (12.0%) 15 (22.8%) 60 (-0.6%) 33 (7.4%) 12 (13.4%) 10 (14.9%)
FEI Rk 35 (.120) 5 (.254) 61 (-.015) 32 (-.306) 14 (-.452) 5 (.692)
Field Position 45 (.508) 68 (.496)



Raw Efficiency 40 (.070) 36 (.079) 71 (-.091) 60 (-.046) 16 (-.379) 28 (.302)
First Down rate

53 (.685) 61 (.667) 80 (.685) 9 (.770)
Available Yards rate

59 (.461) 54 (.429) 19 (.365) 35 (.496)
Explosive Drives

78 (.111) 8 (.058) 15 (.083) 33 (.173)
Methodical Drives

72 (.130) 122 (.203) 84 (.157) 49 (.151)
Value Drives

44 (.418) 35 (.325) 8 (.250) 47 (.415)
Special Team rank 83 (-.416) 55 (.280)



Field Goal efficiency 73 (-.045) 44 (.110)



Punt Return efficiency 67 (-.093) 105 (-.228)



Kickoff return efficiency 80 (-.177) 21 (-.059)



punt efficiency 108 (.055) 55 (-.124)



kickoff efficiency 18 (-.246) 55 (-.181)



Here's another one of those which methodologies suits you better. By S+P this is an even matchup. Both defenses are significantly better than both offenses - but Stanford's defense is way better in every place save standard downs, where they only have a 10 point advantage. That's exactly true for UCLA's defense vs Stanford's offense as well. It might come down, simply, to UCLA's ability to finish drives vs. Stanford's inability to finish drives - UCLA has a small advantage in both offense and defense.

FEI thinks that this is a fairly easy win for UCLA. This is mostly because of schedule; UCLA has still played a very hard set  of defenses and has by FEI the 5th ranked offense in the nation. Because of this, UCLA has distinct advantages on both offense (200 points) and defense (200 points). UCLA will likely have no success on big plays but may get a couple of long drives. Stanford will have almost no chance at all in getting big plays. Special teams also favors UCLA, though both teams match up pretty well on strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness, with the big difference coming down to Stanford's bad field goal kicks. Because this is at UCLA I'd say that they win, but it'll be a close game.

Utah at Colorado


OVERALL When Utah has the ball When Colorado has the ball
Category Utah

Colorado

Utah Off UCB Def Utah Def UCB Off
F/+ Rk 38 (11.5%) 79 (-8.1%) 74 (-3.4%) 90 (-5.9%) 21 (10.1%) 65 (-1.3%)
S&P+ 58 (202.7) 87 (188.8) 85 (94.6) 88 (93.6) 38 (108.1) 82 (95.2)
Play Efficiency

83 (96.3) 71 (99.3) 22 (118.5) 71 (99.9)
Rushing S&P+

71 (99.6) 93 (92.2) 51 (105.9) 84 (95.6)
Passing S&P+

86 (94.1) 52 (104.4) 11 (127.0) 58 (102.3)
Std. Downs S&P+

78 (97.1) 89 (94.2) 15 (120.1) 66 (100.8)
Pass. Downs S&P+

84 (95.6) 35 (116.5) 47 (110.2) 77 (97.2)
Drive Efficiency

65 (101.7) 77 (96.9) 54 (104.6) 84 (94.0)

OVERALL When Utah has the ball When Colorado has the ball
Category Utah

Colorado

Utah Off UCB Def Utah Def UCB Off
F/+ Rk 38 (11.5%) 79 (-8.1%) 74 (-3.4%) 90 (-5.9%) 21 (10.1%) 65 (-1.3%)
FEI Rk 19 (.170) 75 (-.052) 70 (-.106) 91 (.228) 11 (-.484) 59 (.006)
Field Position 18 (.535) 117 (.455)



Raw Efficiency 56 (.024) 101 (-.115) 110 (-.346) 108 (.329) 26 (-.281) 68 (-.045)
First Down rate

97 (.615) 105 (.734) 47 (.638) 49 (.687)
Available Yards rate

111 (.370) 105 (.529) 35 (.402) 65 (.449)
Explosive Drives

107 (.085) 124 (.238) 53 (.118) 109 (.082)
Methodical Drives

81 (.123) 8 (.070) 85 (.157) 28 (.163)
Value Drives

107 (.295) 102 (.468) 22 (.295) 63 (.380)
Special Team rank 5 (2.659) 87 (-.479)



Field Goal efficiency 4 (.601) 56 (.067)



Punt Return efficiency 7 (.134) 86 (-.150)



Kickoff return efficiency 46 (-.128) 77 (-.171)



punt efficiency 8 (-.294) 66 (-.096)



kickoff efficiency 93 (-.079) 85 (-.102)



Sorry, Buffs, but this doesn't look very good. Utah's fairly meh offense matches up okay with Colorado's defense, but the Colorado offense is likely to hit a brick wall against Utah. Utah's one weakness is against the run, but Colorado isn't particularly good at running the ball - and Utah is great against the pass in general. FEI favors Utah even further, with an even bigger discrepancy towards Utah's defense. Special teams also favors Utah, especially on punt returns, punting, and field goals. This looks like a fairly easy Utah win.

Notre Dame at USC


OVERALL When Notre Dame has the ball When USC has the ball
Category Notre Dame

USC

ND Off USC Def ND Def USC Off
F/+ Rk 24 (18.8%) 27 (15.6%) 20 (10.3%) 34 (7.4%) 36 (7.2%) 30 (7.3%)
S&P+ 22 (225.2) 28 (221.6) 16 (117.6) 36 (109.4) 42 (107.7) 30 (112.2)
Play Efficiency

12 (127.2) 47 (107.5) 50 (105.3) 37 (114.1)
Rushing S&P+

25 (121.5) 59 (103.2) 36 (111.5) 75 (98.7)
Passing S&P+

13 (130.0) 44 (110.0) 72 (97.3) 21 (127.0)
Std. Downs S&P+

12 (126.0) 56 (103.4) 45 (107.2) 70 (99.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+

22 (130.8) 27 (122.3) 72 (98.2) 5 (149.1)
Drive Efficiency

21 (120.4) 23 (121.0) 24 (120.7) 19 (121.1)

OVERALL When Notre Dame has the ball When USC has the ball
Category Notre Dame

USC

ND Off USC Def ND Def USC Off
F/+ Rk 24 (18.8%) 27 (15.6%) 20 (10.3%) 34 (7.4%) 36 (7.2%) 30 (7.3%)
FEI Rk 28 (.150) 16 (.187) 23 (.345) 31 (-.309) 26 (-.327) 33 (.255)
Field Position 36 (.514) 39 (.512)



Raw Efficiency 32 (.088) 25 (.104) 34 (.222) 59 (-.062) 53 (-.105) 25 (.338)
First Down rate

17 (.741) 95 (.718) 51 (.647) 56 (.683)
Available Yards rate

14 (.550) 65 (.446) 52 (.427) 34 (.496)
Explosive Drives

25 (.178) 16 (.084) 62 (.128) 41 (.163)
Methodical Drives

54 (.148) 105 (.176) 55 (.135) 17 (.179)
Value Drives

9 (.522) 48 (.350) 68 (.390) 59 (.393)
Special Team rank 35 (.739) 50 (.506)



Field Goal efficiency 106 (-.369) 25 (.319)



Punt Return efficiency 30 (.026) 20 (.055)



Kickoff return efficiency 23 (-.067) 32 (-.095)



punt efficiency 52 (-.133) 94 (.001)



kickoff efficiency 52 (-.186) 104 (-.046)



Well, good news Notre Dame fans - advanced stats don't think you suck that much. By S+P you're better than USC, even. Both offenses have small advantages over both defenses. Notre Dame has big wins running and passing, whereas USC is mostly good at passing here and will likely get bottled up on the run. USC is great on  passing downs, so I would expect success on USC's drives even if they're stopped early in the count. FEI thinks much more highly of USC's chances, though looking at the numbers it looks very odd. USC is 16th overall despite having much worse numbers than Notre Dame everywhere. Seriously,  Notre Dame is better on offense, defense and special teams. I don't get it. If Notre Dame has success it'll be on longer drives; same is true for USC. ND also has some small advantages on punts but a big, whopping advantage on kick returns. If Notre Dame can get big plays in the kicking game I can see them winning on the road and making sure we have seven-win Steve again.

BYU at California


OVERALL When BYU has the ball When California has the ball
Category BYU

California

BYU Off Cal Def BYU Def Cal Off
F/+ Rk 42 (7.7%) 56 (2.2%) 35 (6.6%) 78 (-4.2%) 62 (0.0%) 38 (6.0%)
S&P+ 47 (208.2) 64 (200.3) 37 (108.5) 95 (92.7) 59 (99.7) 38 (107.7)
Play Efficiency

35 (115.6) 108 (88.8) 69 (99.5) 24 (120.6)
Rushing S&P+

27 (120.7) 79 (97.3) 45 (106.9) 40 (111.9)
Passing S&P+

42 (111.3) 114 (84.1) 78 (96.5) 23 (124.5)
Std. Downs S&P+

45 (109.2) 96 (91.7) 77 (97.7) 36 (112.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+

14 (136.6) 113 (81.8) 63 (102.8) 6 (144.5)
Drive Efficiency

40 (110.3) 49 (106.3) 67 (99.8) 74 (98.4)

OVERALL When BYU has the ball When California has the ball
Category BYU

California

BYU Off Cal Def BYU Def Cal Off
F/+ Rk 42 (7.7%) 56 (2.2%) 35 (6.6%) 78 (-4.2%) 62 (0.0%) 38 (6.0%)
FEI Rk 50 (.047) 54 (.042) 32 (.267) 77 (.114) 61 (-.025) 35 (.247)
Field Position 71 (.493) 74 (.491)



Raw Efficiency 47 (.050) 85 (-.060) 57 (.038) 113 (.424) 45 (-.168) 38 (.180)
First Down rate

86 (.640) 122 (.774) 74 (.677) 12 (.759)
Available Yards rate

56 (.463) 121 (.579) 46 (.423) 32 (.500)
Explosive Drives

56 (.144) 107 (.188) 23 (.090) 31 (.173)
Methodical Drives

65 (.136) 104 (.173) 96 (.165) 27 (.165)
Value Drives

40 (.421) 121 (.526) 37 (.333) 48 (.414)
Special Team rank 45 (.585) 62 (.153)



Field Goal efficiency 63 (.021) 61 (.037)



Punt Return efficiency 101 (-.207) 32 (.019)



Kickoff return efficiency 36 (-.109) 19 (-.057)



punt efficiency 13 (-.262) 100 (.012)



kickoff efficiency 60 (-.171) 98 (-.071)



This is another close game that might be decided by home field advantage. Both defenses are at disadvantage too, meaning that this should be a fun game to watch. BYU has about 20 point advantages everywhere on offense; Cal has almost a 30 point advantage passing the ball. They're almost precisely even via FEI as well. BYU is very bad against methodical drives, so Cal should grind out a few here and there - but not be able to get home run threats. Special teams are very close too, though Cal's kickoff returns have a decent advantage. I think Cal can win this game at home and get to bowl eligibility.

Washington at Washington State


OVERALL When Washington has the ball When Washington State has the ball
Category Washington

Washington State

UW Off WSU Def UW Def WSU Off
F/+ Rk 60 (1.7%) 83 (-8.7%) 88 (-5.4%) 98 (-7.3%) 46 (4.6%) 34 (7.2%)
S&P+ 79 (190.8) 69 (196.6) 89 (94.0) 91 (93.2) 74 (96.8) 49 (103.4)
Play Efficiency

77 (98.1) 83 (95.1) 55 (104.4) 44 (109.6)
Rushing S&P+

65 (102.3) 81 (96.9) 43 (107.5) 116 (82.8)
Passing S&P+

77 (96.3) 83 (95.9) 58 (102.2) 36 (115.6)
Std. Downs S&P+

67 (100.6) 98 (91.0) 60 (102.7) 47 (107.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+

100 (91.2) 49 (108.5) 51 (107.9) 38 (114.6)
Drive Efficiency

86 (93.4) 72 (98.0) 92 (91.7) 58 (103.3)

OVERALL When Washington has the ball When Washington State has the ball
Category Washington

Washington State

UW Off WSU Def UW Def WSU Off
F/+ Rk 60 (1.7%) 83 (-8.7%) 88 (-5.4%) 98 (-7.3%) 46 (4.6%) 34 (7.2%)
FEI Rk 45 (.070) 59 (.014) 88 (-.214) 97 (.305) 25 (-.333) 19 (.375)
Field Position 17 (.536) 125 (.435)



Raw Efficiency 45 (.052) 103 (-.119) 89 (-.193) 115 (.430) 27 (-.257) 36 (.212)
First Down rate

103 (.600) 89 (.708) 54 (.652) 35 (.703)
Available Yards rate

90 (.406) 101 (.518) 41 (.415) 30 (.513)
Explosive Drives

70 (.120) 117 (.208) 13 (.074) 45 (.156)
Methodical Drives

58 (.144) 86 (.158) 80 (.156) 5 (.211)
Value Drives

73 (.360) 116 (.514) 51 (.355) 32 (.439)
Special Team rank 20 (1.364) 127 (-4.743)



Field Goal efficiency 28 (.296) 108 (-.381)



Punt Return efficiency 35 (.011) 123 (-.299)



Kickoff return efficiency 17 (-.051) 79 (-.176)



punt efficiency 63 (-.104) 127 (.375)



kickoff efficiency 73 (-.130) 121 (.041)



Good think Washington beat Oregon State, because this looks like a WSU win. S+P favors WSU slightly; the WSU defense is very close to UW with small disadvantages against the run and on standard downs. The bit advantages come against the UW defense, where WSU is great on passing, standard and passing downs against a meh defense. UW is also not very  good at stopping drives, so the usual disadvantage of WSU is probably not so big of a deal. FEI thinks more highly of UW but it's still quite close - and in particular, WSU's ability to grind out long drives should work well here. The one big advantage is on special teams, where UW should be able to get good returns on punts and kicks and have big advantages on field goals. If UW wins, chances are good it's going to be because of hidden yards on returns. Otherwise on the road, I don't like their chances.

The best of the rest:

TCU at Texas


OVERALL When TCU has the ball When Texas has the ball
Category TCU

Texas

TCU Off UT Def TCU Def UT Off
F/+ Rk 5 (30.4%) 55 (3.3%) 14 (12.5%) 19 (10.6%) 8 (15.0%) 81 (-4.4%)
S&P+ 10 (244.3) 35 (215.1) 10 (122.4) 22 (114.5) 15 (121.8) 58 (100.6)
Play Efficiency

15 (125.5) 11 (128.7) 28 (116.3) 56 (103.9)
Rushing S&P+

2 (143.9) 49 (106.6) 14 (127.0) 44 (110.5)
Passing S&P+

40 (113.2) 3 (156.2) 47 (108.2) 69 (99.5)
Std. Downs S&P+

19 (123.0) 10 (122.7) 31 (113.5) 48 (107.2)
Pass. Downs S&P+

24 (129.8) 9 (145.0) 34 (118.3) 89 (93.8)
Drive Efficiency

10 (130.0) 42 (110.6) 6 (143.0) 45 (107.3)

OVERALL When TCU has the ball When Texas has the ball
Category TCU

Texas

TCU Off UT Def TCU Def UT Off
F/+ Rk 5 (30.4%) 55 (3.3%) 14 (12.5%) 19 (10.6%) 8 (15.0%) 81 (-4.4%)
FEI Rk 7 (.242) 64 (-.007) 17 (.403) 18 (-.423) 8 (-.571) 96 (-.257)
Field Position 7 (.557) 96 (.483)



Raw Efficiency 10 (.201) 61 (.010) 26 (.325) 12 (-.408) 17 (-.371) 92 (-.203)
First Down rate

24 (.733) 18 (.579) 9 (.554) 99 (.610)
Available Yards rate

13 (.554) 14 (.346) 24 (.371) 99 (.392)
Explosive Drives

12 (.207) 10 (.068) 87 (.157) 110 (.081)
Methodical Drives

110 (.095) 95 (.165) 32 (.116) 56 (.147)
Value Drives

20 (.489) 17 (.281) 28 (.313) 87 (.345)
Special Team rank 14 (1.567) 114 (-1.637)



Field Goal efficiency 16 (.409) 99 (-.287)



Punt Return efficiency 10 (.099) 59 (-.070)



Kickoff return efficiency 90 (-.197) 125 (-.302)



punt efficiency 76 (-.070) 79 (-.061)



kickoff efficiency 25 (-.230) 102 (-.063)



Many people are picking this as an upset special, but I don't see it. S+P and FEI both think that Texas's defense can do well against the TCU offense to a point - TCU is murderously good running the ball (better than Oregon, even). Where the problem for Texas is is on offense, where they are either fairly overmatched or absurdly overmatched depending on if you like S+P or FEI more. TCU is also great at special teams and can get good punt returns.

Arkansas at Missouri


OVERALL When Arkansas has the ball When Missouri has the ball
Category Arkansas

Missouri

ARK Off UM Def ARK Def UM Off
F/+ Rk 22 (19.4%) 33 (12.7%) 22 (9.6%) 15 (12.2%) 16 (11.2%) 62 (-1.0%)
S&P+ 18 (233.7) 37 (213.1) 18 (116.4) 23 (114.5) 19 (117.3) 66 (98.6)
Play Efficiency

16 (124.9) 10 (128.9) 12 (127.4) 69 (100.2)
Rushing S&P+

17 (126.1) 9 (131.1) 5 (139.6) 66 (102.2)
Passing S&P+

26 (123.7) 15 (125.7) 24 (119.9) 65 (100.9)
Std. Downs S&P+

26 (118.8) 13 (120.4) 11 (122.6) 63 (102.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+

11 (141.7) 8 (149.1) 13 (133.9) 73 (98.4)
Drive Efficiency

17 (123.0) 45 (108.3) 15 (128.6) 55 (103.7)

OVERALL When Arkansas has the ball When Missouri has the ball
Category Arkansas

Missouri

ARK Off UM Def ARK Def UM Off
F/+ Rk 22 (19.4%) 33 (12.7%) 22 (9.6%) 15 (12.2%) 16 (11.2%) 62 (-1.0%)
FEI Rk 20 (.169) 25 (.156) 26 (.326) 10 (-.512) 20 (-.412) 62 (-.027)
Field Position 34 (.518) 57 (.501)



Raw Efficiency 28 (.094) 24 (.107) 37 (.193) 22 (-.358) 44 (-.173) 49 (.093)
First Down rate

45 (.692) 49 (.645) 24 (.594) 81 (.646)
Available Yards rate

41 (.487) 17 (.354) 33 (.400) 70 (.438)
Explosive Drives

74 (.115) 24 (.091) 66 (.129) 51 (.150)
Methodical Drives

4 (.212) 69 (.140) 27 (.099) 34 (.159)
Value Drives

38 (.429) 21 (.282) 49 (.351) 81 (.350)
Special Team rank 94 (-.758) 31 (.852)



Field Goal efficiency 111 (-.401) 48 (.099)



Punt Return efficiency 126 (-.338) 27 (.036)



Kickoff return efficiency 24 (-.067) 13 (-.026)



punt efficiency 3 (-.362) 75 (-.073)



kickoff efficiency 114 (-.016) 100 (-.066)



If you were looking at this from a win-loss perspective you're looking in the wrong place. Arkansas is a much better team by both stats measures than Missouri and should dominate on defense. The Arkansas offense vs Missouri defense is a close one by comparison and Arkansas will have some difficulty getting drives together - but chances are good they'll at least get some. The one shining light for missouri is on special teams, where Arkansas is horrible at kicking off and Missouri is good getting returns. Still probably not enough.

Georgia Tech at Georgia


OVERALL When Georgia Tech has the ball When Georgia has the ball
Category Georgia Tech

Georgia

GT Off UG Def GT Def UG Off
F/+ Rk 12 (24.6%) 6 (30.3%) 1 (21.7%) 23 (9.4%) 61 (0.3%) 7 (16.5%)
S&P+ 27 (221.7) 14 (237.0) 7 (124.1) 25 (113.2) 68 (97.6) 8 (123.8)
Play Efficiency

3 (139.8) 40 (109.7) 101 (90.7) 4 (139.1)
Rushing S&P+

7 (138.0) 74 (99.7) 108 (85.7) 1 (148.2)
Passing S&P+

4 (147.4) 18 (124.0) 84 (95.8) 12 (131.3)
Std. Downs S&P+

8 (129.0) 32 (113.5) 92 (93.1) 3 (134.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+

3 (168.6) 64 (102.6) 105 (86.6) 7 (143.1)
Drive Efficiency

23 (118.7) 16 (127.4) 31 (115.3) 18 (122.8)

OVERALL When Georgia Tech has the ball When Georgia has the ball
Category Georgia Tech

Georgia

GT Off UG Def GT Def UG Off
F/+ Rk 12 (24.6%) 6 (30.3%) 1 (21.7%) 23 (9.4%) 61 (0.3%) 7 (16.5%)
FEI Rk 6 (.247) 3 (.273) 1 (.910) 24 (-.371) 58 (-.075) 7 (.616)
Field Position 8 (.556) 1 (.591)



Raw Efficiency 14 (.164) 5 (.241) 5 (.616) 41 (-.194) 81 (.131) 10 (.518)
First Down rate

1 (.830) 25 (.596) 82 (.690) 18 (.740)
Available Yards rate

4 (.611) 23 (.370) 92 (.506) 9 (.577)
Explosive Drives

15 (.191) 19 (.087) 67 (.130) 11 (.208)
Methodical Drives

13 (.191) 53 (.135) 115 (.190) 41 (.156)
Value Drives

4 (.550) 33 (.323) 103 (.468) 11 (.519)
Special Team rank 17 (1.445) 6 (2.437)



Field Goal efficiency 101 (-.295) 62 (.032)



Punt Return efficiency 3 (.198) 6 (.145)



Kickoff return efficiency 39 (-.113) 6 (.066)



punt efficiency 27 (-.197) 61 (-.107)



kickoff efficiency 74 (-.129) 49 (-.188)



Georgia is absolutely beloved by the advanced stats, especially FEI. GT is good but not great. The big thing to consider is that GT's offense has a 40 point advantage running the ball - but Georgia has a 65-point advantage running the ball (and by S+P is the best team in the nation running). Georgia's defense isn't particularly good, but GT's defense is horrible. That being said, GT does do one thing well - get turnovers and drive stops. FEI sees a similar situation, where GT's great offense goes up against a decent defense but Georgia's great offense goes up against a bad defense. Both teams are great on returns as well. This should have a ton of highlight stuff and should be great to watch, but this being at Georgia likely means GT loses.

Mississippi State at Ole Miss


OVERALL When Mississippi State has the ball When Ole Miss has the ball
Category Mississippi State

Ole Miss

MSST Off MISS Def MSST Def MISS Off
F/+ Rk 4 (31.0%) 9 (28.0%) 12 (13.0%) 4 (18.8%) 6 (17.0%) 27 (7.9%)
S&P+ 3 (255.7) 4 (250.2) 4 (128.7) 4 (129.9) 7 (127.0) 14 (120.3)
Play Efficiency

9 (136.2) 3 (144.6) 15 (124.3) 18 (123.5)
Rushing S&P+

5 (139.4) 7 (135.0) 11 (128.3) 51 (108.0)
Passing S&P+

8 (135.5) 2 (156.9) 19 (123.5) 10 (133.5)
Std. Downs S&P+

6 (131.6) 2 (138.7) 17 (119.5) 22 (120.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+

10 (142.0) 3 (161.0) 16 (131.1) 21 (130.8)
Drive Efficiency

5 (134.8) 13 (133.8) 5 (147.0) 2 (140.3)

OVERALL When Mississippi State has the ball When Ole Miss has the ball
Category Mississippi State

Ole Miss

MSST Off MISS Def MSST Def MISS Off
F/+ Rk 4 (31.0%) 9 (28.0%) 12 (13.0%) 4 (18.8%) 6 (17.0%) 27 (7.9%)
FEI Rk 10 (.229) 12 (.219) 24 (.341) 4 (-.669) 5 (-.610) 43 (.165)
Field Position 25 (.530) 16 (.537)



Raw Efficiency 6 (.233) 13 (.166) 22 (.365) 4 (-.595) 9 (-.481) 56 (.041)
First Down rate

34 (.705) 26 (.598) 35 (.615) 54 (.685)
Available Yards rate

21 (.544) 7 (.326) 25 (.372) 53 (.468)
Explosive Drives

19 (.189) 6 (.054) 40 (.108) 24 (.180)
Methodical Drives

42 (.156) 29 (.107) 17 (.085) 101 (.108)
Value Drives

25 (.471) 5 (.229) 14 (.277) 51 (.408)
Special Team rank 49 (.527) 37 (.727)



Field Goal efficiency 87 (-.157) 92 (-.224)



Punt Return efficiency 115 (-.250) 122 (-.287)



Kickoff return efficiency 14 (-.033) 34 (-.106)



punt efficiency 64 (-.104) 19 (-.248)



kickoff efficiency 7 (-.331) 4 (-.364)



On paper this looks like a great matchup. S+P has these two teams within one spot. Mississippi State is very good on offense, but Ole Miss is still brutal on defense had has advantages most everywhere save against the run. Ole Miss will almost certainly not be able to run the ball, but they should have some success passing. In general, MSST should be able to move the ball more often than Ole Miss does. FEI says a similar thing, though both defenses are favored here - but Ole Miss's offense is what is bringing things down. Both teams are good at special teams too. This being at Ole Miss means that the game is going to be very close, but I'd probably favor Mississippi State to pull it off.

Minnesota at Wisconsin


OVERALL When Minnesota has the ball When Wisconsin has the ball
Category Minnesota

Wisconsin

UM Off UW Def UM Def UW Off
F/+ Rk 31 (13.9%) 13 (24.0%) 46 (4.4%) 13 (13.3%) 38 (7.0%) 19 (10.4%)
S&P+ 40 (212.4) 12 (242.9) 43 (104.6) 12 (122.8) 41 (107.8) 15 (120.1)
Play Efficiency

48 (108.7) 26 (117.0) 31 (113.0) 19 (123.5)
Rushing S&P+

41 (111.0) 26 (116.2) 34 (112.0) 9 (133.3)
Passing S&P+

48 (105.8) 27 (117.8) 34 (113.2) 50 (105.5)
Std. Downs S&P+

46 (108.5) 41 (109.2) 37 (111.0) 10 (127.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

56 (104.2) 12 (134.7) 39 (115.0) 46 (109.4)
Drive Efficiency

42 (109.7) 11 (135.4) 44 (108.7) 13 (125.0)

OVERALL When Minnesota has the ball When Wisconsin has the ball
Category Minnesota

Wisconsin

UM Off UW Def UM Def UW Off
F/+ Rk 31 (13.9%) 13 (24.0%) 46 (4.4%) 13 (13.3%) 38 (7.0%) 19 (10.4%)
FEI Rk 30 (.133) 17 (.181) 39 (.197) 13 (-.459) 30 (-.310) 29 (.313)
Field Position 12 (.543) 56 (.501)



Raw Efficiency 35 (.079) 7 (.232) 62 (-.003) 8 (-.525) 36 (-.209) 17 (.432)
First Down rate

70 (.658) 7 (.530) 23 (.593) 48 (.688)
Available Yards rate

62 (.452) 3 (.304) 34 (.401) 19 (.545)
Explosive Drives

95 (.096) 31 (.096) 55 (.124) 2 (.304)
Methodical Drives

38 (.158) 2 (.052) 39 (.124) 89 (.116)
Value Drives

84 (.347) 2 (.186) 27 (.311) 19 (.490)
Special Team rank 19 (1.387) 63 (.142)



Field Goal efficiency 117 (-.483) 11 (.478)



Punt Return efficiency 34 (.014) 23 (.047)



Kickoff return efficiency 10 (.017) 95 (-.201)



punt efficiency 31 (-.181) 116 (.130)



kickoff efficiency 20 (-.238) 67 (-.157)



If you were hoping for Melvin Gordon to not have a good game, you're probably not going to have a good time. Wisconsin has a 20 point advantage running the ball and is in general better on offense across the board, save (unsurprisingly) on passing. UW's defense also has nice advantages across the board. FEI thinks that UW's offense isn't quite so good but sees UW's defense as much better. Minnesota can get some gains returning kicks and punts, but that only goes so far, especially on the road. Wisconsin should win this decisively.

Auburn at Alabama:


OVERALL When Auburn has the ball When Alabama has the ball
Category Auburn

Alabama

AUB Off BAMA Def AUB Def BAMA Off
F/+ Rk 8 (28.4%) 1 (35.7%) 3 (20.4%) 2 (19.0%) 26 (9.1%) 4 (18.1%)
S&P+ 9 (246.6) 1 (266.7) 5 (128.4) 1 (136.1) 16 (118.2) 3 (130.6)
Play Efficiency

8 (136.3) 6 (138.2) 23 (118.2) 7 (136.6)
Rushing S&P+

20 (125.2) 1 (158.6) 21 (124.7) 12 (129.6)
Passing S&P+

1 (159.6) 12 (127.0) 38 (112.7) 3 (147.7)
Std. Downs S&P+

16 (124.4) 1 (139.4) 36 (111.2) 2 (135.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+

2 (169.9) 15 (133.2) 10 (136.6) 19 (132.5)
Drive Efficiency

4 (137.0) 1 (151.8) 8 (138.6) 1 (144.8)

OVERALL When Auburn has the ball When Alabama has the ball
Category Auburn

Alabama

AUB Off BAMA Def AUB Def BAMA Off
F/+ Rk 8 (28.4%) 1 (35.7%) 3 (20.4%) 2 (19.0%) 26 (9.1%) 4 (18.1%)
FEI Rk 9 (.231) 2 (.297) 2 (.773) 7 (-.592) 38 (-.278) 8 (.605)
Field Position 51 (.504) 101 (.481)



Raw Efficiency 26 (.103) 9 (.205) 11 (.500) 7 (-.530) 71 (.046) 13 (.463)
First Down rate

10 (.766) 32 (.613) 55 (.652) 47 (.692)
Available Yards rate

12 (.565) 11 (.336) 75 (.470) 23 (.540)
Explosive Drives

26 (.178) 4 (.045) 97 (.165) 35 (.168)
Methodical Drives

51 (.150) 101 (.171) 83 (.157) 36 (.159)
Value Drives

12 (.516) 4 (.224) 88 (.429) 17 (.495)
Special Team rank 90 (-.589) 97 (-.777)



Field Goal efficiency 105 (-.361) 89 (-.190)



Punt Return efficiency 39 (-.005) 121 (-.284)



Kickoff return efficiency 127 (-.311) 102 (-.221)



punt efficiency 56 (-.124) 10 (-.279)



kickoff efficiency 46 (-.190) 77 (-.125)



Remember when we thought this was going to potentially be a game to decide the championship in the SEC West? Oh well. Those were good times. Alabama is currently the big darling of S+P - having the best defense and the third best offense. Alabama's offense is where the biggest advantage lies, especially on passing (over 30 points) and on drive efficiency. Alabama's defense is incredibly strong as well and has a 25 point advantage against the run. While Auburn is great passing they don't do it very often, and their success largely stems from having a strong run game. I don't see that happening. It's a smidgen closer from FEI, where Auburn may be able to do better offensively. But again, Auburn's defense pulls them down. Neither team is good at special teams. This being at Alabama I would expect a good win by Alabama, probably in the 10-15 point range.