Advanced Stats Saturday: Week 11 2014

FEI is the Fremeau Efficiency Index, created by Brian Fremeau. Brian Fremeau is an author at Football Outsiders,ESPN and BCFToys. FEI is an advanced statistical measure for college football that tracks drive efficiency instead of per-play success.

S+P is created by Bill Connelly. Bill Connelly is an author at SBNation, RockMNation, Football Study Hall and Football Outsiders. S+P is an advanced statistical measure which combines success rate, explosiveness per play and opponent adjustments.

Lots of good games to jump into this week and a likely decider of several conferences' playoff hopes.

Notre Dame at Arizona State

	OVERALL		When Notre Dame has the ball		When Arizona State has the ball
Category	Notre Dame	Arizona State	ND Off	ASU Def	ND Def	ASU Off
F/+ Rk	22 (20.2%)	21 (20.7%)	28 (7.9%)	38 (7.1%)	20 (11.2%)	13 (12.9%)
S&P+	22 (230.5)	29 (221.6)	17 (117.2)	33 (111.1)	27 (113.4)	34 (110.5)
Play Efficiency			19 (124.7)	46 (110.4)	32 (116.6)	34 (116.3)
Rushing S&P+			30 (119.1)	49 (105.9)	16 (127.2)	60 (104.8)
Passing S&P+			19 (128.0)	41 (113.5)	59 (104.5)	23 (125.0)
Std. Downs S&P+			14 (124.6)	62 (101.8)	32 (115.2)	32 (117.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+			27 (125.5)	19 (131.7)	44 (116.0)	39 (114.3)
Drive Efficiency			21 (117.7)	28 (116.9)	24 (121.1)	27 (113.3)

	OVERALL		When Notre Dame has the ball		When Arizona State has the ball
Category	Notre Dame	Arizona State	ND Off	ASU Def	ND Def	ASU Off
F/+ Rk	22 (20.2%)	21 (20.7%)	28 (7.9%)	38 (7.1%)	20 (11.2%)	13 (12.9%)
FEI Rk	25 (.167)	14 (.224)	35 (.218)	40 (-.270)	16 (-.471)	8 (.600)
Field Position	27 (.522)	44 (.507)
Raw Efficiency	16 (.163)	38 (.066)	26 (.350)	33 (-.271)	42 (-.217)	45 (.106)
First Down rate			22 (.734)	71 (.674)	34 (.602)	26 (.727)
Available Yards rate			14 (.563)	44 (.408)	40 (.394)	26 (.525)
Explosive Drives			41 (.160)	51 (.116)	44 (.108)	71 (.125)
Methodical Drives			21 (.181)	78 (.151)	62 (.140)	48 (.148)
Value Drives			16 (.513)	43 (.329)	53 (.352)	35 (.434)
Special Team rank	40 (.787)	51 (.497)
Field Goal efficiency	83 (-.144)	31 (.333)
Punt Return efficiency	49 (-.026)	48 (-.024)
Kickoff return efficiency	32 (-.073)	61 (-.156)
punt efficiency	53 (-.129)	47 (-.147)
kickoff efficiency	55 (-.182)	104 (-.035)

This is about as even as they come. S+P significantly favors Notre Dame on both offense and defense. FEI thinks that ASU's offense is much better than Notre Dame's and much better in general, while the ASU defense matches up pretty evenly with Notre Dame's offense. This is another good test of which methodology is right - as well as a sort of bellwether for the PAC-12 in general. If ASU can beat Notre Dame in a similar fashion to FSU, we have a much better idea of where FSU and the PAC-12 stand. If they can't, well, we'll also know.

The big advantage that ND has is on standard downs, where ASU just doesn't get a lot of stops - and ND is super efficient. ND is great at methodical drives too; expect a whole lot of long drives with decent scores at the end. ASU is almost as methodical, however, and has a massive advantage passing the ball against the weakest part of the ND defense. Both teams' major offensive strength is the other team's major defensive weakness, so expect something of a race here. Neither team is particularly special in special teams play save in one area - ASU is horrible at kickoffs. That might be the kind of difference that decides this game.

Washington State at Oregon State

	OVERALL		When Washington State has the ball		When Oregon State has the ball
Category	Washington State	Oregon State	WSU Off	OSU Def	WSU Def	OSU Off
F/+ Rk	78 (-6.7%)	70 (-3.1%)	27 (8.4%)	80 (-3.0%)	90 (-7.8%)	58 (0.4%)
S&P+	66 (200.8)	81 (192.6)	47 (104.5)	85 (95.1)	79 (96.2)	77 (97.5)
Play Efficiency			45 (111.5)	77 (96.3)	70 (98.1)	66 (102.4)
Rushing S&P+			100 (90.2)	126 (74.2)	75 (98.0)	31 (117.1)
Passing S&P+			36 (113.8)	25 (120.1)	69 (100.3)	93 (91.6)
Std. Downs S&P+			40 (111.1)	105 (89.5)	91 (93.1)	56 (105.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+			43 (112.7)	45 (115.4)	49 (113.7)	93 (90.3)
Drive Efficiency			65 (101.3)	91 (92.3)	65 (100.3)	82 (95.3)

	OVERALL		When Washington State has the ball		When Oregon State has the ball
Category	Washington State	Oregon State	WSU Off	OSU Def	WSU Def	OSU Off
F/+ Rk	78 (-6.7%)	70 (-3.1%)	27 (8.4%)	80 (-3.0%)	90 (-7.8%)	58 (0.4%)
FEI Rk	57 (.023)	60 (.005)	14 (.434)	75 (.068)	96 (.357)	52 (.080)
Field Position	125 (.434)	102 (.472)
Raw Efficiency	105 (-.128)	80 (-.052)	38 (.175)	67 (.004)	118 (.450)	74 (-.075)
First Down rate			50 (.689)	26 (.588)	96 (.726)	46 (.695)
Available Yards rate			35 (.505)	61 (.436)	100 (.532)	75 (.422)
Explosive Drives			43 (.155)	23 (.082)	109 (.200)	60 (.134)
Methodical Drives			13 (.204)	67 (.141)	106 (.179)	105 (.098)
Value Drives			38 (.429)	79 (.413)	113 (.512)	80 (.342)
Special Team rank	126 (-5.268)	80 (-.303)
Field Goal efficiency	102 (-.367)	7 (.594)
Punt Return efficiency	112 (-.273)	92 (-.184)
Kickoff return efficiency	73 (-.166)	42 (-.105)
punt efficiency	128 (.437)	119 (.151)
kickoff efficiency	123 (.129)	61 (-.172)

This probably isn't that useful to run due to Connor Halliday's tragic injury. All signs point to it being a WSU blowout, as WSU's decent offense comes up against a bad defense, while OSU's decent to horrible offense goes against a decent to horrible defense depending on what methodology you like. Washington State is also worst in the nation on special teams, so you might get a couple good kick returns from OSU.

UCLA at Washington

	OVERALL		When UCLA has the ball		When Washington has the ball
Category	UCLA	Washington	UCLA Off	UW Def	UCLA Def	UW Off
F/+ Rk	16 (22.0%)	60 (0.1%)	11 (13.6%)	41 (6.6%)	35 (8.1%)	99 (-8.0%)
S&P+	28 (222.2)	72 (197.8)	35 (110.4)	58 (101.3)	32 (111.7)	81 (96.5)
Play Efficiency			36 (115.8)	48 (108.3)	27 (119.2)	74 (97.6)
Rushing S&P+			24 (123.1)	52 (105.3)	35 (114.6)	66 (102.9)
Passing S&P+			37 (112.7)	47 (110.5)	22 (122.8)	81 (94.6)
Std. Downs S&P+			30 (117.4)	48 (105.3)	29 (116.6)	71 (100.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+			51 (106.6)	43 (116.6)	30 (122.7)	96 (90.2)
Drive Efficiency			26 (114.4)	86 (94.7)	35 (111.3)	79 (97.1)

	OVERALL		When UCLA has the ball		When Washington has the ball
Category	UCLA	Washington	UCLA Off	UW Def	UCLA Def	UW Off
F/+ Rk	16 (22.0%)	60 (0.1%)	11 (13.6%)	41 (6.6%)	35 (8.1%)	99 (-8.0%)
FEI Rk	7 (.236)	45 (.068)	7 (.639)	24 (-.387)	34 (-.321)	108 (-.383)
Field Position	55 (.502)	11 (.555)
Raw Efficiency	46 (.049)	36 (.068)	37 (.211)	25 (-.356)	66 (-.001)	101 (-.296)
First Down rate			8 (.776)	48 (.633)	73 (.678)	105 (.593)
Available Yards rate			44 (.486)	42 (.399)	65 (.440)	103 (.382)
Explosive Drives			29 (.181)	5 (.051)	13 (.068)	82 (.110)
Methodical Drives			65 (.138)	89 (.163)	116 (.203)	95 (.110)
Value Drives			61 (.376)	37 (.318)	47 (.333)	105 (.295)
Special Team rank	62 (.180)	32 (1.113)
Field Goal efficiency	79 (-.077)	54 (.115)
Punt Return efficiency	105 (-.221)	21 (.081)
Kickoff return efficiency	35 (-.085)	71 (-.164)
punt efficiency	60 (-.091)	58 (-.096)
kickoff efficiency	14 (-.271)	51 (-.189)

Oh, Washington. You continue to amuse me. Washington's defense is still the strength of the team, but that strength is married to a completely horrible offense. UCLA has big advantages (about 15 points of S+P) on each side of the ball and in particular should be able to run effectively, though they might get bogged down if they get into passing situations too much. Washington, meanwhile, doesn't do anything particularly good and is especially bad at turning the ball over. UW's defense is one of the best in the country at stopping explosive plays, so UCLA may have to get points a fairly hard way for them - but it shouldn't be too bad, as I don't see how UW is going to actually do anything. The best shot UW has is on punt returns, where they could get some yardage. The likelihood is that they'd just squander it on their offense.

Colorado at Arizona

	OVERALL		When Colorado has the ball		When Arizona has the ball
Category	Colorado	Arizona	UCB Off	UA Def	UCB Def	UA Off
F/+ Rk	76 (-5.6%)	28 (15.7%)	56 (0.7%)	39 (7.0%)	85 (-5.2%)	29 (7.9%)
S&P+	84 (192.1)	42 (211.2)	73 (98.4)	47 (105.5)	89 (93.7)	44 (105.7)
Play Efficiency			63 (103.1)	39 (111.6)	81 (95.4)	67 (102.1)
Rushing S&P+			83 (95.2)	39 (112.7)	96 (90.4)	71 (100.8)
Passing S&P+			45 (109.8)	53 (108.1)	75 (98.3)	65 (101.3)
Std. Downs S&P+			68 (101.2)	42 (107.7)	107 (88.5)	60 (103.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+			49 (107.2)	37 (118.9)	36 (119.1)	71 (99.1)
Drive Efficiency			85 (95.0)	45 (107.6)	74 (97.6)	23 (117.0)

	OVERALL		When Colorado has the ball		When Arizona has the ball
Category	Colorado	Arizona	UCB Off	UA Def	UCB Def	UA Off
F/+ Rk	76 (-5.6%)	28 (15.7%)	56 (0.7%)	39 (7.0%)	85 (-5.2%)	29 (7.9%)
FEI Rk	66 (-.015)	12 (.225)	49 (.086)	31 (-.351)	86 (.170)	19 (.385)
Field Position	114 (.462)	13 (.546)
Raw Efficiency	89 (-.076)	29 (.093)	57 (.014)	79 (.158)	90 (.246)	15 (.470)
First Down rate			33 (.712)	94 (.720)	77 (.694)	5 (.790)
Available Yards rate			54 (.468)	74 (.465)	82 (.499)	15 (.562)
Explosive Drives			111 (.072)	68 (.130)	122 (.231)	36 (.170)
Methodical Drives			28 (.168)	64 (.140)	10 (.058)	17 (.190)
Value Drives			56 (.391)	64 (.371)	89 (.442)	14 (.517)
Special Team rank	90 (-.814)	50 (.567)
Field Goal efficiency	52 (.116)	97 (-.293)
Punt Return efficiency	96 (-.197)	46 (-.022)
Kickoff return efficiency	87 (-.188)	85 (-.181)
punt efficiency	72 (-.063)	44 (-.156)
kickoff efficiency	85 (-.111)	16 (-.263)

I am contractually obligated to provide data about Colorado. Actually, that's not fair - while Colorado is not a great team they're not the hideous mess that they were last year (76th overall in F+) and are comparable to WSU and OSU, and within striking distance of Washington. That being said, this isn't a good matchup against one of the better teams in the PAC-12. They are at best even when passing the ball on offense and fairly outclassed on defense, though not by so much. If Colorado can keep Arizona behind the count, they can get some stops. FEI, however, sees Arizona as a methodical killing machine on offense with an almost 600 point differential. Colorado is great at stopping methodical drives - but only because they're so horrible at stopping explosive ones. Expect a lot of big plays for Arizona.

Clemson at Wake Forest

	OVERALL		When Clemson has the ball		When Wake Forest has the ball
Category	Clemson	Wake Forest	CLEM Off	WAKE Def	CLEM Def	WAKE Off
F/+ Rk	13 (24.4%)	84 (-10.0%)	47 (3.8%)	51 (3.0%)	1 (21.9%)	126 (-17.6%)
S&P+	14 (238.0)	113 (176.1)	46 (104.8)	57 (101.3)	3 (133.2)	126 (74.8)
Play Efficiency			76 (97.5)	51 (107.3)	2 (154.7)	128 (66.1)
Rushing S&P+			110 (85.4)	44 (108.7)	2 (152.1)	128 (47.9)
Passing S&P+			49 (108.0)	60 (104.3)	4 (155.8)	121 (76.0)
Std. Downs S&P+			79 (96.8)	55 (103.4)	4 (139.4)	128 (69.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			76 (98.1)	38 (118.0)	2 (182.3)	127 (63.2)
Drive Efficiency			11 (123.4)	88 (94.0)	21 (122.5)	88 (94.4)

	OVERALL		When Clemson has the ball		When Wake Forest has the ball
Category	Clemson	Wake Forest	CLEM Off	WAKE Def	CLEM Def	WAKE Off
F/+ Rk	13 (24.4%)	84 (-10.0%)	47 (3.8%)	51 (3.0%)	1 (21.9%)	126 (-17.6%)
FEI Rk	16 (.216)	86 (-.087)	44 (.167)	47 (-.183)	1 (-.787)	126 (-.604)
Field Position	36 (.513)	106 (.469)
Raw Efficiency	34 (.078)	110 (-.138)	91 (-.200)	40 (-.224)	6 (-.534)	127 (-.827)
First Down rate			115 (.564)	80 (.700)	3 (.490)	127 (.435)
Available Yards rate			100 (.389)	68 (.443)	1 (.265)	128 (.211)
Explosive Drives			88 (.106)	28 (.088)	71 (.133)	127 (.035)
Methodical Drives			26 (.170)	57 (.138)	5 (.051)	118 (.082)
Value Drives			76 (.349)	61 (.361)	3 (.205)	128 (.147)
Special Team rank	91 (-.882)	4 (3.295)
Field Goal efficiency	63 (.043)	6 (.642)
Punt Return efficiency	77 (-.119)	16 (.097)
Kickoff return efficiency	121 (-.312)	77 (-.173)
punt efficiency	19 (-.231)	21 (-.228)
kickoff efficiency	114 (-.010)	7 (-.339)

I was curious how bad Wake Forest is. Wake Forest is bad. Real bad. Worse than any team in the PAC-12 bad. The Wake forest defense actually has a decent shot against a meh Clemson offense, but Clemson has the highest ranked defense in the nation by FEI (artificially bolstered by doing well against Jameis Winston's backups) and Wake Forest has by FEI the worst offense in the country. This might be entertaining in the way that watching a 5 year old try and beat up a sumo wrestler is entertaining.

Baylor at Oklahoma

	OVERALL		When Baylor has the ball		When Oklahoma has the ball
Category	Baylor	Oklahoma	BAY Off	OU Def	BAY Def	OU Off
F/+ Rk	18 (21.7%)	6 (32.0%)	20 (10.1%)	25 (9.7%)	23 (10.0%)	5 (18.8%)
S&P+	16 (237.0)	7 (250.9)	22 (115.6)	17 (121.0)	14 (121.4)	5 (129.9)
Play Efficiency			28 (118.4)	15 (124.9)	31 (117.0)	3 (143.9)
Rushing S&P+			49 (108.8)	14 (131.3)	28 (115.7)	2 (145.5)
Passing S&P+			20 (127.6)	23 (122.3)	28 (118.2)	7 (143.5)
Std. Downs S&P+			26 (118.8)	16 (121.6)	39 (108.6)	5 (137.2)
Pass. Downs S&P+			36 (117.3)	23 (128.3)	15 (134.9)	6 (158.1)
Drive Efficiency			20 (119.6)	16 (127.8)	5 (136.1)	8 (129.3)

	OVERALL		When Baylor has the ball		When Oklahoma has the ball
Category	Baylor	Oklahoma	BAY Off	OU Def	BAY Def	OU Off
F/+ Rk	18 (21.7%)	6 (32.0%)	20 (10.1%)	25 (9.7%)	23 (10.0%)	5 (18.8%)
FEI Rk	23 (.176)	6 (.243)	21 (.365)	38 (-.274)	37 (-.284)	6 (.650)
Field Position	7 (.564)	20 (.539)
Raw Efficiency	5 (.243)	9 (.225)	24 (.383)	28 (-.334)	15 (-.452)	14 (.495)
First Down rate			10 (.772)	33 (.602)	5 (.506)	43 (.702)
Available Yards rate			9 (.582)	20 (.359)	9 (.318)	20 (.539)
Explosive Drives			11 (.207)	41 (.102)	60 (.126)	30 (.181)
Methodical Drives			19 (.185)	33 (.112)	13 (.069)	75 (.128)
Value Drives			12 (.526)	26 (.286)	8 (.250)	18 (.506)
Special Team rank	28 (1.186)	8 (2.529)
Field Goal efficiency	55 (.106)	34 (.296)
Punt Return efficiency	74 (-.111)	17 (.090)
Kickoff return efficiency	16 (-.010)	1 (.197)
punt efficiency	18 (-.235)	94 (.004)
kickoff efficiency	87 (-.103)	71 (-.150)

On rankings, Baylor is way ahead here. Good thing advanced stats care nothing for pollsters, because this is a big ol upset alert for Baylor. That it's on the road is not a good sign for the Bears. That Oklahoma has the 5th best offense by S+P is even worse. Baylor is good on defense but has a 30 point differential against the run here. That's bad news. S+P thinks that the Oklahoma defense is equal to the Baylor offense, having big advantages against the run and on passing downs and essentially even against the pass. FEI thinks the Baylor offense is much better than that, predicting something of a shootout - but a shootout Oklahoma will win. Another problem is that Oklahoma is best in the nation on returning kicks against Baylor's 87th' ranked kick coverage team. While Baylor usually gets the advantage of field position I'd expect Oklahoma to do well here as well.

Georgia at Kentucky

	OVERALL		When Georgia has the ball		When Kentucky has the ball
Category	Georgia	Kentucky	UG Off	KU Def	UG Def	KU Off
F/+ Rk	20 (21.1%)	63 (-0.6%)	10 (14.7%)	49 (3.8%)	48 (4.6%)	75 (-3.1%)
S&P+	24 (228.5)	45 (210.1)	13 (120.0)	46 (106.4)	41 (108.5)	49 (103.7)
Play Efficiency			9 (134.6)	50 (107.8)	55 (103.9)	50 (107.4)
Rushing S&P+			3 (144.7)	62 (102.9)	68 (100.5)	40 (114.2)
Passing S&P+			25 (122.5)	38 (114.1)	50 (108.8)	60 (103.5)
Std. Downs S&P+			8 (129.5)	43 (107.5)	41 (108.3)	35 (114.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+			12 (139.2)	58 (105.5)	83 (93.6)	97 (90.1)
Drive Efficiency			22 (117.1)	43 (107.7)	27 (118.0)	44 (109.0)

	OVERALL		When Georgia has the ball		When Kentucky has the ball
Category	Georgia	Kentucky	UG Off	KU Def	UG Def	KU Off
F/+ Rk	20 (21.1%)	63 (-0.6%)	10 (14.7%)	49 (3.8%)	48 (4.6%)	75 (-3.1%)
FEI Rk	11 (.226)	65 (-.014)	13 (.564)	51 (-.153)	50 (-.165)	88 (-.208)
Field Position	2 (.590)	49 (.505)
Raw Efficiency	13 (.215)	60 (.007)	21 (.399)	53 (-.129)	44 (-.204)	86 (-.158)
First Down rate			35 (.711)	39 (.619)	22 (.575)	67 (.660)
Available Yards rate			19 (.546)	43 (.400)	22 (.363)	84 (.414)
Explosive Drives			13 (.205)	11 (.062)	32 (.092)	61 (.134)
Methodical Drives			50 (.145)	91 (.165)	34 (.115)	90 (.113)
Value Drives			19 (.486)	36 (.318)	41 (.325)	91 (.326)
Special Team rank	26 (1.293)	94 (-.948)
Field Goal efficiency	77 (-.067)	37 (.270)
Punt Return efficiency	22 (.077)	91 (-.181)
Kickoff return efficiency	9 (.046)	72 (-.165)
punt efficiency	97 (.023)	81 (-.037)
kickoff efficiency	50 (-.191)	110 (-.020)

Another one I was curious about. Kentucky isn't bad, but they're not a great match. I don't know why Mississippi State struggled with them so much. Georgia should have an easy time of it provided they remember to stop the run now and then. They have a 40 point advantage running the ball. Kentucky has a 15 point advantage when they run, but that shouldn't be so hideous that Georgia gives up. FEI sees it as about the same only more so, and gives Georgia some big advantages in the return game to boot.

Kansas State at TCU

	OVERALL		When Kansas State has the ball		When TCU has the ball
Category	Kansas State	TCU	KSU Off	TCU Def	KSU Def	TCU Off
F/+ Rk	15 (24.2%)	10 (27.4%)	24 (9.1%)	8 (15.7%)	18 (12.2%)	22 (9.8%)
S&P+	25 (228.4)	12 (239.8)	30 (111.4)	18 (120.5)	21 (116.9)	14 (119.3)
Play Efficiency			44 (111.7)	25 (120.4)	20 (122.2)	16 (125.6)
Rushing S&P+			44 (110.9)	18 (125.9)	11 (131.9)	4 (140.3)
Passing S&P+			34 (114.6)	37 (114.4)	32 (115.8)	33 (115.6)
Std. Downs S&P+			48 (107.5)	36 (113.1)	33 (114.6)	29 (117.9)
Pass. Downs S&P+			31 (124.3)	16 (134.8)	10 (144.9)	10 (142.6)
Drive Efficiency			25 (115.7)	7 (135.6)	18 (124.7)	15 (122.6)

	OVERALL		When Kansas State has the ball		When TCU has the ball
Category	Kansas State	TCU	KSU Off	TCU Def	KSU Def	TCU Off
F/+ Rk	15 (24.2%)	10 (27.4%)	24 (9.1%)	8 (15.7%)	18 (12.2%)	22 (9.8%)
FEI Rk	17 (.202)	13 (.225)	20 (.372)	7 (-.622)	15 (-.477)	29 (.291)
Field Position	16 (.543)	6 (.565)
Raw Efficiency	4 (.248)	14 (.205)	8 (.558)	13 (-.471)	37 (-.248)	33 (.250)
First Down rate			21 (.735)	18 (.567)	25 (.586)	44 (.702)
Available Yards rate			11 (.573)	28 (.370)	33 (.379)	22 (.533)
Explosive Drives			21 (.191)	94 (.165)	7 (.057)	14 (.202)
Methodical Drives			36 (.162)	46 (.124)	83 (.157)	98 (.106)
Value Drives			5 (.557)	40 (.322)	18 (.273)	23 (.473)
Special Team rank	11 (2.069)	25 (1.422)
Field Goal efficiency	80 (-.098)	20 (.402)
Punt Return efficiency	2 (.330)	34 (.016)
Kickoff return efficiency	10 (.031)	65 (-.160)
punt efficiency	112 (.108)	70 (-.065)
kickoff efficiency	35 (-.217)	25 (-.248)

This is TCU's last real chance to prove themselves to the committee, and fortunately they get Kansas State at home. This is a very even matchup, but TCU has a slight edge. In particular TCU should be able to run the ball (15 points), get points (20 points - meaning no turnovers and a lot more TDs than FGs), stop KSU's running attack (6 points), and otherwise hold serve. FEI sees their matchup as almost precisely even on offense and defense with both defenses being better than both offenses. A very atypical smashmouth kind of game, in other words. Special teams may come into major play here, and here's where TCU has a big advantage - they're 20th in kicking field goals compared to 80th for KState, and KState is 112th in punting vs TCU's 34th. KState is no slouch on special teams either and may get a big punt return as well; they're second in the nation on punt returns.

Alabama at LSU

	OVERALL		When Alabama has the ball		When LSU has the ball
Category	Alabama	LSU	ALA Off	LSU Def	ALA Def	LSU Off
F/+ Rk	5 (33.4%)	9 (27.8%)	7 (18.1%)	14 (14.0%)	6 (16.8%)	19 (10.7%)
S&P+	1 (267.2)	8 (248.7)	4 (132.1)	7 (127.6)	1 (135.1)	11 (121.1)
Play Efficiency			6 (140.3)	7 (134.2)	6 (139.4)	14 (126.9)
Rushing S&P+			20 (126.0)	19 (123.9)	1 (167.3)	27 (121.9)
Passing S&P+			2 (161.9)	5 (146.4)	18 (126.5)	11 (139.4)
Std. Downs S&P+			1 (139.1)	6 (134.9)	2 (143.4)	15 (124.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+			13 (138.3)	26 (125.2)	20 (129.8)	26 (126.2)
Drive Efficiency			2 (141.3)	6 (135.8)	1 (145.7)	5 (134.8)

	OVERALL		When Alabama has the ball		When LSU has the ball
Category	Alabama	LSU	ALA Off	LSU Def	ALA Def	LSU Off
F/+ Rk	5 (33.4%)	9 (27.8%)	7 (18.1%)	14 (14.0%)	6 (16.8%)	19 (10.7%)
FEI Rk	5 (.253)	20 (.184)	12 (.576)	21 (-.420)	17 (-.470)	28 (.320)
Field Position	99 (.474)	21 (.538)
Raw Efficiency	3 (.250)	25 (.122)	3 (.733)	18 (-.400)	7 (-.525)	66 (-.044)
First Down rate			9 (.775)	31 (.596)	47 (.631)	100 (.606)
Available Yards rate			6 (.607)	13 (.338)	10 (.330)	92 (.401)
Explosive Drives			15 (.200)	74 (.138)	8 (.060)	79 (.117)
Methodical Drives			25 (.175)	2 (.032)	70 (.143)	106 (.096)
Value Drives			7 (.547)	16 (.261)	4 (.213)	79 (.345)
Special Team rank	96 (-1.091)	10 (2.222)
Field Goal efficiency	75 (-.045)	17 (.412)
Punt Return efficiency	126 (-.354)	13 (.129)
Kickoff return efficiency	119 (-.290)	41 (-.100)
punt efficiency	6 (-.330)	79 (-.050)
kickoff efficiency	88 (-.102)	18 (-.257)

Sorry guys, but this doesn't look like an upset at all. Alabama is the top rated team by S+P and one of the best by FEI. LSU is highly ranked in S+P and not loved at all by FEI. Alabama has slight advantages on offense - mostly in the passing game and on passing downs. Alabama has big advantages on defense, where they have the best rushing defense in the nation. They are potentially vulnerable to a passing attack, and LSU does have a 15 point advantage when passing. Alabama is also one of the most efficient in drives on both offense and defense - forcing stops, turnovers, etc.

FEI doesn't think quite so highly of Alabama due to their fairly weak schedule so far, but they're still highly rated. And LSU...isn't. One big advantage LSU has is on special teams, where Alabama is rated 96th and LSU is 10th. Alabama is great at punting but horrible at punt returns and kick returns, which LSU is very good at. If LSU can somehow hold back the tide to take advantage of their hidden yards they can make a game out of it, but otherwise Alabama should win.

Ohio State at Michigan State

	OVERALL		When Ohio State has the ball		When Michigan State has the ball
Category	Ohio State	Michigan State	tOSU Off	MSU Def	tOSU Def	MSU Off
F/+ Rk	7 (28.9%)	11 (26.3%)	15 (12.4%)	7 (15.8%)	17 (12.4%)	18 (10.9%)
S&P+	9 (248.4)	4 (258.0)	6 (126.6)	4 (132.4)	12 (121.8)	8 (125.6)
Play Efficiency			7 (137.4)	5 (147.1)	26 (119.7)	8 (135.4)
Rushing S&P+			13 (129.5)	3 (149.4)	57 (104.4)	19 (127.7)
Passing S&P+			4 (149.2)	8 (139.4)	11 (132.9)	5 (148.2)
Std. Downs S&P+			9 (128.1)	11 (125.0)	27 (116.9)	2 (139.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+			5 (159.7)	1 (192.6)	31 (122.6)	29 (124.4)
Drive Efficiency			9 (126.9)	10 (134.2)	12 (134.0)	18 (120.3)

	OVERALL		When Ohio State has the ball		When Michigan State has the ball
Category	Ohio State	Michigan State	tOSU Off	MSU Def	tOSU Def	MSU Off
F/+ Rk	7 (28.9%)	11 (26.3%)	15 (12.4%)	7 (15.8%)	17 (12.4%)	18 (10.9%)
FEI Rk	18 (.194)	24 (.172)	26 (.335)	19 (-.453)	22 (-.415)	32 (.261)
Field Position	1 (.595)	19 (.540)
Raw Efficiency	2 (.301)	8 (.227)	18 (.434)	10 (-.480)	12 (-.472)	28 (.323)
First Down rate			6 (.776)	2 (.476)	8 (.534)	13 (.759)
Available Yards rate			3 (.633)	6 (.300)	5 (.299)	23 (.532)
Explosive Drives			45 (.153)	83 (.155)	21 (.080)	63 (.133)
Methodical Drives			107 (.094)	1 (.012)	17 (.080)	116 (.084)
Value Drives			4 (.576)	9 (.253)	7 (.241)	24 (.471)
Special Team rank	6 (2.905)	79 (-.238)
Field Goal efficiency	64 (.039)	104 (-.380)
Punt Return efficiency	6 (.191)	79 (-.122)
Kickoff return efficiency	26 (-.046)	28 (-.058)
punt efficiency	14 (-.256)	74 (-.062)
kickoff efficiency	37 (-.208)	52 (-.187)

This one is almost as close as the Notre Dame - ASU game. It's also another test of which methodology is better. Michigan State is favored by S+P on both offense and defense. Ohio State should be able to find some room to pass the ball and get explosive plays (10 point advantage) but not a whole lot else, and MSU has the best passing down defense in the nation. MSU on offense is going to have a big advantage running the ball (23 points) as well as significant advantages passing (16 points) and on standard downs (23 points). FEI disagrees almost completely, thinking that OSU's defense is much better than MSU's offense, even though they have a weak schedule. Ohio State is 1st in the nation on field position and 6th in special teams; expect good punt returns and kick returns against a meh MSU kicking game.