FEI is the Fremeau Efficiency Index, created by Brian Fremeau. Brian Fremeau is an author at Football Outsiders,ESPN and BCFToys. FEI is an advanced statistical measure for college football that tracks drive efficiency instead of per-play success. S+P is created by Bill Connelly. Bill Connelly is an author at SBNation, RockMNation, Football Study Hall and Football Outsiders. S+P is an advanced statistical measure which combines success rate, explosiveness per play and opponent adjustments.
New! If you're curious what these numbers mean, here's a glossary, stolen happily from our friends at Roll Bama Roll.
FEI: The Fremeau Efficiency Index, an overall team quality metric that is drive-based and opponent-adjusted. For a more detailed discussion of FEI, check out the PTN primer.
OFEI: The offensive component of FEI.
DFEI: The defensive component of FEI.
FPA: FEI Field Position Advantage, a measure of how much field position value a team earned against its opponents.
STE: FEI Special Teams Efficiency, a composite measure of a team's efficiency in all facets of special teams (kicking, punting, and returning), based on points per game.
S&P+:S&P+ is primarily play-based and consists of three components: Success Rate, Equivalent Net Points per Play, and a drive efficiency component. The "+" refers to opponent adjustments. For a more detailed discussion of S&P+, check out the PTN primer.
OS&P+: The offensive component of S&P+.
DS&P+: The defensive component of S&P+.
Rush OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on rushing plays for the offense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at running the ball.
Rush DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on rushing plays for the defense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at stopping the run.
Pass OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing plays for the offense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at throwing the ball.
Pass DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing plays for the defense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at defending the pass.
PD: Passing Downs, defined as later downs with medium yardage or more to go (3rd, 4th downs in excess of 5 yards to go), as well as 2nd down with more than 8 yards to go.
SD: Standard Downs, defined as all downs that are not Passing Downs.
SD OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on standard downs for the offense — a good measure of a team's offensive effectiveness on earlier downs and short yardage.
SD DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on standard downs for the defense — a good measure of a team's defensive effectiveness on earlier downs and short yardage.
PD OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing downs for the offense — a good measure of a team's offensive effectiveness on later downs and long yardage.
PD DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing downs for the defense — a good measure of a team's defensive effectiveness on later downs and long yardage.
F/+: The F/+ combined ratings combine FEI and S&P+ into one metric that serves as Football Outsiders' official rankings for college football. For a more detailed discussion of F/+, check out the PTN primer.
Off. F/+: The offensive component of F/+.
Def. F/+: The defensive component of F/+.
ST F/+: The special teams component of F/+.
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl: Illinois at Louisiana Tech
OVERALL
When Illinois has the ball
When Louisiana Tech has the ball
Category
Illinois
Louisiana Tech
UI Off
LT Def
UI Def
LT Off
F/+ Rk
78 (-6.6%)
48 (5.4%)
67 (-1.8%)
23 (9.8%)
89 (-5.4%)
88 (-5.0%)
S&P+
80 (192.6)
27 (220.1)
72 (97.7)
17 (119.4)
86 (94.8)
59 (100.6)
Play Efficiency
53 (103.5)
13 (124.1)
67 (98.9)
72 (98.7)
Rushing S&P+
72 (99.9)
10 (129.5)
77 (98.0)
74 (99.3)
Passing S&P+
53 (105.0)
20 (120.1)
68 (98.7)
75 (96.7)
Std. Downs S&P+
58 (103.4)
13 (121.0)
62 (101.0)
75 (97.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+
56 (104.1)
16 (127.3)
86 (92.9)
52 (105.3)
Drive Efficiency
79 (96.4)
20 (132.0)
85 (93.6)
53 (106.0)
OVERALL
When Illinois has the ball
When Louisiana Tech has the ball
Category
Illinois
Louisiana Tech
UI Off
LT Def
UI Def
LT Off
F/+ Rk
78 (-6.6%)
48 (5.4%)
67 (-1.8%)
23 (9.8%)
89 (-5.4%)
88 (-5.0%)
FEI Rk
78 (-.056)
56 (.024)
65 (-.061)
28 (-.312)
89 (.211)
102 (-.291)
Field Position
61 (.500)
5 (.561)
Raw Efficiency
95 (-.089)
17 (.144)
92 (-.196)
21 (-.360)
91 (.176)
59 (.056)
First Down rate
115 (.579)
35 (.621)
94 (.711)
48 (.688)
Available Yards rate
99 (.397)
24 (.376)
93 (.504)
49 (.477)
Explosive Drives
71 (.120)
31 (.100)
99 (.178)
17 (.194)
Methodical Drives
95 (.113)
101 (.171)
85 (.156)
121 (.083)
Value Drives
90 (.336)
28 (.317)
98 (.450)
55 (.404)
Special Team rank
57 (.301)
56 (.311)
Field Goal efficiency
120 (-.578)
74 (-.083)
Punt Return efficiency
27 (.026)
51 (-.042)
Kickoff return efficiency
17 (-.043)
3 (.122)
punt efficiency
35 (-.166)
119 (.167)
kickoff efficiency
82 (-.107)
60 (-.167)
Despite the Power 5 cred, the Illini should be in serious trouble against Louisiana Tech. S+P in particular thinks that LT is a seriously good team, especially on defense. They're not quite as good on offense (and FEI thinks they're pretty poor) but they're still going to be a match for Illinois. Both teams have really good kick return games and poor kick coverage, so there might be a return for a TD here. Otherwise this will likely be another big-10 loss and another lopsided game.
Quick Lane Bowl: Rutgers at North Carolina
OVERALL
When Rutgers has the ball
When North Carolina has the ball
Category
Rutgers
North Carolina
RUT Off
UNC Def
RUT Def
UNC Off
F/+ Rk
73 (-4.4%)
74 (-4.5%)
60 (-0.3%)
108 (-9.9%)
78 (-4.2%)
29 (7.7%)
S&P+
67 (198.6)
79 (193.0)
46 (104.4)
105 (90.6)
90 (94.2)
53 (102.4)
Play Efficiency
32 (116.3)
91 (93.1)
76 (97.1)
35 (115.4)
Rushing S&P+
56 (105.0)
86 (95.6)
83 (96.1)
35 (113.4)
Passing S&P+
10 (133.8)
102 (89.2)
90 (93.9)
29 (119.1)
Std. Downs S&P+
34 (112.4)
72 (98.7)
68 (99.5)
33 (112.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+
28 (123.1)
115 (80.5)
104 (88.7)
32 (121.5)
Drive Efficiency
75 (97.4)
85 (93.6)
78 (95.9)
86 (93.4)
OVERALL
When Rutgers has the ball
When North Carolina has the ball
Category
Rutgers
North Carolina
RUT Off
UNC Def
RUT Def
UNC Off
F/+ Rk
73 (-4.4%)
74 (-4.5%)
60 (-0.3%)
108 (-9.9%)
78 (-4.2%)
29 (7.7%)
FEI Rk
88 (-.091)
60 (.013)
67 (-.074)
111 (.411)
77 (.131)
16 (.421)
Field Position
105 (.476)
37 (.513)
Raw Efficiency
97 (-.093)
101 (-.108)
77 (-.096)
126 (.607)
100 (.233)
38 (.186)
First Down rate
103 (.608)
112 (.746)
101 (.720)
60 (.674)
Available Yards rate
92 (.410)
107 (.543)
101 (.521)
57 (.468)
Explosive Drives
80 (.108)
124 (.231)
122 (.229)
46 (.155)
Methodical Drives
41 (.158)
120 (.201)
20 (.093)
21 (.178)
Value Drives
86 (.343)
112 (.500)
94 (.441)
56 (.403)
Special Team rank
66 (.036)
110 (-1.334)
Field Goal efficiency
53 (.067)
126 (-.777)
Punt Return efficiency
24 (.035)
118 (-.257)
Kickoff return efficiency
47 (-.114)
78 (-.168)
punt efficiency
83 (-.035)
53 (-.125)
kickoff efficiency
106 (-.033)
13 (-.264)
One of the best chances for a Big-10 team to get a win, this has two very even teams - at least by F+. FEI likes NC much better, particularly with a very powerful offense that has faced hard defenses all year long. Both defenses are really bad so there should be a lot of points scored. NC also has horrible special teams, including one of the worst field goal kicking teams in the nation. I think Rutgers can win this due to simply being a smidgen better at fundamental play.
Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl: NC State at Central Florida
OVERALL
When NC State has the ball
When Central Florida has the ball
Category
NC State
Central Florida
NCST Off
UCF Def
NCST Def
UCF Off
F/+ Rk
49 (5.2%)
52 (3.9%)
40 (5.8%)
35 (6.3%)
70 (-2.2%)
68 (-1.9%)
S&P+
50 (208.6)
51 (208.1)
31 (110.9)
37 (108.4)
72 (97.6)
64 (99.7)
Play Efficiency
31 (116.5)
70 (98.6)
77 (96.9)
64 (101.6)
Rushing S&P+
9 (132.6)
73 (99.6)
98 (91.1)
82 (96.9)
Passing S&P+
58 (102.4)
73 (98.1)
62 (102.1)
44 (108.2)
Std. Downs S&P+
19 (121.4)
83 (97.1)
73 (98.5)
87 (94.9)
Pass. Downs S&P+
58 (103.2)
58 (105.7)
88 (92.8)
29 (122.3)
Drive Efficiency
44 (111.7)
33 (118.3)
63 (102.6)
56 (104.3)
OVERALL
When North Carolina State has the ball
When Central Florida has the ball
Category
North Carolina State
Central Florida
NCST Off
UCF Def
NCST Def
UCF Off
F/+ Rk
49 (5.2%)
52 (3.9%)
40 (5.8%)
35 (6.3%)
70 (-2.2%)
68 (-1.9%)
FEI Rk
59 (.016)
54 (.026)
41 (.179)
35 (-.272)
69 (.069)
71 (-.099)
Field Position
77 (.491)
58 (.503)
Raw Efficiency
61 (.022)
29 (.087)
30 (.255)
4 (-.599)
90 (.172)
95 (-.202)
First Down rate
74 (.658)
5 (.525)
20 (.587)
46 (.689)
Available Yards rate
48 (.479)
4 (.318)
76 (.467)
75 (.438)
Explosive Drives
61 (.135)
2 (.043)
39 (.110)
78 (.111)
Methodical Drives
32 (.162)
45 (.129)
127 (.229)
89 (.119)
Value Drives
38 (.429)
7 (.261)
90 (.433)
72 (.373)
Special Team rank
31 (.964)
76 (-.275)
Field Goal efficiency
37 (.208)
90 (-.218)
Punt Return efficiency
99 (-.197)
106 (-.229)
Kickoff return efficiency
59 (-.138)
4 (.095)
punt efficiency
11 (-.280)
92 (.003)
kickoff efficiency
46 (-.192)
71 (-.139)
Just so you know - I hate NC State. Not because of anything about them - but because in the S+P and FEI tables, they are spelled either NC State, N. C. State, or North Carolina State. So I hope they lose. Chances are about a coin flip on this one. FEI likes UCF a bit more, FEI likes NCState barely. Special teams are in favor of NC State, especially on punting. Both teams match up very well and evenly with each other, with the offenses having the overall advantages but not by a whole lot. I'm going with UCF because of my hatred of N C. Carolina State State.
Military Bowl: Cincinnati at Virginia Tech
OVERALL
When Cincinnati has the ball
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Category
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
CIN Off
VT Def
CIN Def
VT Off
F/+ Rk
46 (5.6%)
32 (12.7%)
25 (8.4%)
4 (18.1%)
88 (-5.4%)
91 (-5.4%)
S&P+
47 (210.0)
30 (218.7)
26 (112.1)
10 (124.4)
69 (97.9)
89 (94.3)
Play Efficiency
23 (120.1)
4 (140.8)
87 (94.5)
93 (90.5)
Rushing S&P+
47 (109.2)
13 (127.4)
92 (92.7)
104 (88.0)
Passing S&P+
14 (128.6)
2 (156.5)
82 (95.5)
82 (93.5)
Std. Downs S&P+
28 (114.8)
4 (133.5)
75 (98.4)
79 (96.7)
Pass. Downs S&P+
14 (134.5)
8 (150.6)
106 (87.3)
114 (79.1)
Drive Efficiency
31 (115.3)
22 (129.0)
48 (108.7)
48 (111.0)
OVERALL
When Cincinnati has the ball
When Virginia Tech has the ball
Category
Cincinnati
Virginia Tech
CIN Off
VT Def
CIN Def
VT Off
F/+ Rk
46 (5.6%)
32 (12.7%)
25 (8.4%)
4 (18.1%)
88 (-5.4%)
91 (-5.4%)
FEI Rk
62 (.001)
25 (.144)
25 (.315)
2 (-.721)
97 (.255)
91 (-.224)
Field Position
75 (.493)
97 (.483)
Raw Efficiency
38 (.063)
64 (.011)
22 (.341)
11 (-.413)
76 (.099)
117 (-.485)
First Down rate
16 (.745)
8 (.550)
88 (.703)
116 (.566)
Available Yards rate
34 (.502)
16 (.368)
89 (.494)
119 (.338)
Explosive Drives
50 (.153)
43 (.114)
74 (.138)
124 (.059)
Methodical Drives
110 (.095)
5 (.067)
58 (.138)
102 (.105)
Value Drives
40 (.427)
48 (.357)
76 (.405)
122 (.244)
Special Team rank
17 (1.451)
67 (-.001)
Field Goal efficiency
11 (.421)
84 (-.154)
Punt Return efficiency
9 (.116)
62 (-.067)
Kickoff return efficiency
121 (-.286)
127 (-.349)
punt efficiency
44 (-.148)
45 (-.148)
kickoff efficiency
39 (-.200)
7 (-.321)
Virginia Tech, despite their record and occasionally atrocious gameplay, is a fairly good team statistically. Part of that is that they look like worldbeaters against Ohio State, but part of it is that they have had a great defense all season. Both defenses have big advantages over both offenses, but VTech's advantages are much bigger - over 20 points. Cinci is opportunistic and will get some turnovers, but it's probably not enough. The only trick here is that Cinci has good special teams - especially on punt returns - whereas Beamer Ball has uncharacteristically mediocre special teams. Still, VTech should win in a close, ugly game.
Sun Bowl: Arizona State at Duke
OVERALL
When Arizona State has the ball
When Duke has the ball
Category
Arizona State
Duke
ASU Off
Duke Def
ASU Def
Duke Off
F/+ Rk
26 (15.7%)
28 (13.7%)
35 (6.6%)
44 (4.5%)
29 (7.9%)
47 (3.1%)
S&P+
35 (214.1)
66 (198.8)
45 (104.5)
67 (98.0)
32 (109.7)
58 (100.8)
Play Efficiency
50 (106.8)
101 (91.4)
36 (110.8)
61 (102.1)
Rushing S&P+
77 (98.3)
109 (84.6)
53 (105.2)
42 (111.3)
Passing S&P+
37 (113.2)
64 (99.5)
32 (113.7)
80 (95.0)
Std. Downs S&P+
45 (107.1)
97 (92.6)
44 (108.1)
54 (104.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+
54 (105.0)
94 (91.3)
39 (113.9)
83 (95.7)
Drive Efficiency
48 (111.0)
52 (107.7)
27 (121.0)
55 (105.6)
OVERALL
When Arizona State has the ball
When Duke has the ball
Category
Arizona State
Duke
ASU Off
Duke Def
ASU Def
Duke Off
F/+ Rk
26 (15.7%)
28 (13.7%)
35 (6.6%)
44 (4.5%)
29 (7.9%)
47 (3.1%)
FEI Rk
16 (.175)
26 (.140)
24 (.324)
27 (-.320)
24 (-.346)
42 (.175)
Field Position
21 (.532)
10 (.549)
Raw Efficiency
39 (.063)
24 (.107)
58 (.057)
38 (-.186)
41 (-.181)
61 (.053)
First Down rate
27 (.722)
36 (.628)
67 (.671)
52 (.683)
Available Yards rate
46 (.481)
46 (.429)
44 (.417)
55 (.469)
Explosive Drives
58 (.139)
7 (.062)
75 (.140)
103 (.095)
Methodical Drives
98 (.111)
112 (.178)
36 (.119)
40 (.159)
Value Drives
61 (.393)
39 (.342)
35 (.336)
59 (.400)
Special Team rank
41 (.691)
1 (3.440)
Field Goal efficiency
29 (.253)
15 (.397)
Punt Return efficiency
54 (-.045)
14 (.070)
Kickoff return efficiency
101 (-.218)
15 (-.026)
punt efficiency
21 (-.233)
5 (-.351)
kickoff efficiency
85 (-.102)
33 (-.210)
If you're thinking that this might give some clue as to how Oregon and Florida State will matchup - well, maybe. It's mostly a view into which stat system is more right. S+P has Arizona State rolling easily over Duke, particularly when ASU is defending. FEI has them almost neck and neck, with ASU having a slight advantage. The big win is Duke's special teams, which are first overall in the nation. You might recall a team that was high in special teams a couple years back which Oregon played - and it turned out that special teams are important, but not super predictive as Oregon returned a kickoff for a TD right at the start. Duke is great at special teams in every aspect, but I don't see that being enough of an advantage over ASU to win.
Duck Commander Independence Bowl: Miami-FL at South Carolina
OVERALL
When Miami-FL has the ball
When South Carolina has the ball
Category
Miami-FL
South Carolina
Miami Off
SCAR Def
Miami Def
SCAR Off
F/+ Rk
24 (16.2%)
56 (3.0%)
17 (10.1%)
117 (-12.5%)
34 (7.0%)
9 (14.2%)
S&P+
21 (225.1)
57 (204.1)
28 (111.9)
100 (91.9)
27 (113.2)
25 (112.2)
Play Efficiency
36 (115.0)
113 (87.3)
16 (122.6)
16 (124.8)
Rushing S&P+
55 (105.6)
117 (81.6)
34 (112.8)
15 (127.2)
Passing S&P+
19 (125.3)
85 (94.6)
7 (136.1)
21 (125.0)
Std. Downs S&P+
32 (112.8)
117 (85.5)
15 (119.9)
22 (120.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+
31 (121.9)
75 (96.6)
13 (129.8)
17 (133.1)
Drive Efficiency
27 (119.4)
57 (104.7)
31 (118.8)
37 (113.7)
OVERALL
When Miami has the ball
When South Carolina has the ball
Category
Miami
South Carolina
Miami Off
SCAR Def
Miami Def
SCAR Off
F/+ Rk
24 (16.2%)
56 (3.0%)
17 (10.1%)
117 (-12.5%)
34 (7.0%)
9 (14.2%)
FEI Rk
33 (.117)
43 (.082)
17 (.416)
124 (.583)
38 (-.238)
6 (.652)
Field Position
99 (.481)
76 (.491)
Raw Efficiency
42 (.057)
63 (.016)
33 (.242)
111 (.368)
50 (-.118)
25 (.303)
First Down rate
58 (.678)
103 (.726)
68 (.672)
13 (.752)
Available Yards rate
26 (.518)
117 (.565)
43 (.416)
22 (.532)
Explosive Drives
13 (.203)
52 (.120)
25 (.092)
22 (.192)
Methodical Drives
105 (.102)
100 (.171)
75 (.151)
26 (.168)
Value Drives
25 (.463)
113 (.510)
37 (.336)
12 (.509)
Special Team rank
87 (-.497)
38 (.752)
Field Goal efficiency
22 (.338)
21 (.340)
Punt Return efficiency
102 (-.206)
52 (-.044)
Kickoff return efficiency
96 (-.208)
62 (-.142)
punt efficiency
28 (-.201)
39 (-.154)
kickoff efficiency
111 (-.002)
94 (-.084)
I also hate Miami, which is alternately Miami-FL or Miami depending. Ugh. My hatred will not power them to a loss though; Miami is a very good team with a very good up and coming QB in Brad Kayaa, and their offense has absurd advantages over a frankly terrible South Carolina defense - especially in the passing game, where it's about 30 points. The SC offense is pretty decent, but only has an advantage running the ball. FEI likes the SC offense better than S+P, but not nearly as much as it likes the Miami offense. Expect Miami-FL(not OH) to roll.
And duck commander?
Pinstripe Bowl: Boston College at Penn State
OVERALL
When Boston College has the ball
When Penn State has the ball
Category
Boston College
Penn State
BC Off
PSU Def
BC Def
PSU Off
F/+ Rk
29 (13.7%)
54 (3.6%)
22 (9.2%)
10 (14.2%)
45 (4.4%)
104 (-7.9%)
S&P+
29 (219.0)
34 (215.0)
33 (110.4)
15 (122.2)
36 (108.7)
91 (92.8)
Play Efficiency
28 (118.0)
6 (134.8)
38 (110.4)
96 (90.2)
Rushing S&P+
25 (120.0)
3 (141.4)
32 (113.6)
106 (86.6)
Passing S&P+
32 (117.8)
9 (129.9)
41 (109.3)
83 (93.4)
Std. Downs S&P+
30 (113.1)
9 (124.3)
30 (111.2)
102 (88.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+
18 (130.8)
4 (163.9)
55 (106.8)
90 (94.1)
Drive Efficiency
25 (120.5)
28 (119.6)
30 (119.0)
47 (111.3)
OVERALL
When Boston College has the ball
When Penn State has the ball
Category
Boston College
Penn State
BC Off
PSU Def
BC Def
PSU Off
F/+ Rk
29 (13.7%)
54 (3.6%)
22 (9.2%)
10 (14.2%)
45 (4.4%)
104 (-7.9%)
FEI Rk
28 (.133)
51 (.032)
18 (.386)
9 (-.525)
49 (-.154)
106 (-.344)
Field Position
60 (.500)
92 (.485)
Raw Efficiency
56 (.038)
57 (.037)
53 (.071)
2 (-.641)
49 (-.138)
116 (-.480)
First Down rate
100 (.610)
1 (.497)
15 (.576)
93 (.620)
Available Yards rate
68 (.447)
2 (.282)
32 (.392)
113 (.364)
Explosive Drives
49 (.154)
1 (.027)
34 (.104)
115 (.073)
Methodical Drives
49 (.154)
16 (.087)
44 (.128)
94 (.113)
Value Drives
39 (.429)
1 (.184)
25 (.311)
112 (.281)
Special Team rank
65 (.067)
112 (-1.522)
Field Goal efficiency
112 (-.416)
17 (.384)
Punt Return efficiency
68 (-.093)
49 (-.032)
Kickoff return efficiency
51 (-.122)
126 (-.300)
punt efficiency
73 (-.083)
106 (.072)
kickoff efficiency
12 (-.279)
118 (.037)
Sorry, Big-10, but that national narrative of y'all sucking? Not going to be helped by this game, either. BC is a feisty team and has been all year, especially in running the ball. PSU has one of the better defenses of the NCAA but has no offense to speak of. Yards and points are going to be hard to come by in this one, but they'll be harder for PSU. PSU having the 112th ranked special teams and being 92nd in field position doesn't help either. I expect BC to win, but probably not too easily - by a TD or so.
Holiday Bowl: Nebraska at USC
OVERALL
When Nebraska has the ball
When USC has the ball
Category
Nebraska
USC
NEB Off
USC Def
NEB Def
USC Off
F/+ Rk
27 (15.1%)
22 (16.9%)
39 (6.0%)
28 (8.0%)
41 (5.4%)
28 (7.9%)
S&P+
31 (218.6)
26 (220.1)
29 (111.3)
34 (108.8)
41 (107.3)
30 (111.3)
Play Efficiency
21 (120.5)
39 (110.3)
49 (107.2)
33 (115.7)
Rushing S&P+
21 (122.5)
57 (103.6)
84 (95.7)
70 (100.5)
Passing S&P+
34 (116.6)
29 (115.2)
17 (122.1)
16 (128.0)
Std. Downs S&P+
27 (115.6)
50 (105.6)
47 (106.6)
62 (102.9)
Pass. Downs S&P+
19 (129.8)
15 (127.8)
52 (107.2)
5 (146.5)
Drive Efficiency
43 (112.3)
26 (122.7)
32 (118.6)
23 (122.7)
OVERALL
When Nebraska has the ball
When USC has the ball
Category
Nebraska
USC
NEB Off
USC Def
NEB Def
USC Off
F/+ Rk
27 (15.1%)
22 (16.9%)
39 (6.0%)
28 (8.0%)
41 (5.4%)
28 (7.9%)
FEI Rk
29 (.130)
13 (.203)
40 (.188)
22 (-.363)
39 (-.231)
28 (.302)
Field Position
6 (.556)
32 (.516)
Raw Efficiency
20 (.135)
19 (.135)
52 (.076)
55 (-.103)
25 (-.259)
16 (.412)
First Down rate
55 (.681)
95 (.712)
16 (.581)
38 (.702)
Available Yards rate
35 (.498)
51 (.439)
21 (.374)
27 (.514)
Explosive Drives
39 (.163)
16 (.086)
69 (.132)
35 (.168)
Methodical Drives
108 (.096)
106 (.173)
29 (.110)
16 (.183)
Value Drives
30 (.440)
42 (.344)
30 (.320)
43 (.417)
Special Team rank
7 (2.082)
44 (.535)
Field Goal efficiency
102 (-.318)
25 (.319)
Punt Return efficiency
1 (.432)
17 (.055)
Kickoff return efficiency
41 (-.103)
37 (-.099)
punt efficiency
78 (-.059)
95 (.005)
kickoff efficiency
61 (-.167)
100 (-.060)
This feels like it should be a bigger deal. It's a good game on paper - both teams are top 30 and both are pretty close. It's the holiday bowl, which has had good matchups most of the time. But the loss of Bo Pelini, the malaiase of Steve Sarkisian and the inconsistencies of both teams make this a bit sadder to think about. USC is slightly favored by S+P, especially when they have the ball - though Nebraska's defense is best against the pass, which hurts USC a bit. Nebraska also has a 20 point advantage when they run the ball. FEI rates USC's defense significantly better and thinks USC is significantly better overall save in one place - special teams, where Ameer Abdullah continues to shine on punt returns. I think USC wins simply because of the lack of Pelini and the presence of Mike Riley, though the numbers suggest that Nebraska might match up too well against USC. This might be the Big-10's best shot at a win until the playoffs, and it's really not that good of one.
Liberty Bowl: Texas A&M at West Virginia
OVERALL
When Texas A&M has the ball
When West Virginia has the ball
Category
Texas A&M
West Virginia
TAM Off
WVU Def
TAM Def
WVU Off
F/+ Rk
53 (3.8%)
34 (12.6%)
30 (7.5%)
25 (9.4%)
90 (-5.4%)
49 (2.8%)
S&P+
49 (209.2)
22 (224.5)
23 (113.5)
22 (115.6)
80 (95.7)
37 (108.9)
Play Efficiency
17 (124.3)
14 (123.4)
74 (98.0)
40 (110.1)
Rushing S&P+
20 (122.5)
17 (123.9)
110 (84.4)
62 (103.6)
Passing S&P+
20 (125.1)
14 (122.7)
24 (117.3)
30 (118.2)
Std. Downs S&P+
17 (122.6)
10 (122.1)
86 (95.2)
39 (110.7)
Pass. Downs S&P+
25 (125.0)
23 (122.8)
53 (107.1)
48 (107.1)
Drive Efficiency
33 (114.7)
21 (130.5)
65 (102.2)
15 (129.2)
OVERALL
When Texas A&M has the ball
When West Virginia has the ball
Category
Texas A&M
West Virginia
TAM Off
WVU Def
TAM Def
WVU Off
F/+ Rk
53 (3.8%)
34 (12.6%)
30 (7.5%)
25 (9.4%)
90 (-5.4%)
49 (2.8%)
FEI Rk
52 (.027)
38 (.098)
36 (.244)
25 (-.345)
91 (.225)
58 (.037)
Field Position
71 (.494)
107 (.473)
Raw Efficiency
77 (-.033)
58 (.030)
31 (.245)
40 (-.182)
118 (.477)
72 (-.070)
First Down rate
44 (.690)
54 (.656)
117 (.759)
35 (.711)
Available Yards rate
56 (.469)
45 (.419)
112 (.563)
59 (.468)
Explosive Drives
32 (.172)
50 (.119)
117 (.207)
37 (.164)
Methodical Drives
68 (.138)
15 (.086)
69 (.147)
64 (.145)
Value Drives
66 (.380)
43 (.346)
106 (.481)
36 (.431)
Special Team rank
32 (.942)
59 (.192)
Field Goal efficiency
28 (.285)
9 (.480)
Punt Return efficiency
61 (-.066)
128 (-.333)
Kickoff return efficiency
100 (-.218)
10 (.015)
punt efficiency
33 (-.185)
94 (.003)
kickoff efficiency
34 (-.209)
44 (-.193)
Ah, a classic Big-12 matchup that isn't. Remember when A&M was ranked #6 in the nation to start the season? Good times, good times. West Virginia doesn't have the best record but has done it against some very hard competition (Baylor, TCU, Bama and KState is not a fun schedule) and looks much better than an underqualified SEC has-been. A&M's offense against WVU's defense is about as close as you can get - but WV's offense has big advantages when running against the 110th ranked aggie defense. FEI essentially agrees completely. Expect another SEC loss.
Russell Athletic Bowl: Oklahoma at Clemson
OVERALL
When Oklahoma has the ball
When Clemson has the ball
Category
Oklahoma
Clemson
OU Off
CLEM Def
OU Def
CLEM Off
F/+ Rk
13 (22.3%)
14 (21.1%)
10 (13.8%)
1 (23.4%)
36 (6.3%)
58 (-0.1%)
S&P+
12 (237.3)
11 (238.8)
7 (122.1)
2 (135.4)
24 (115.1)
48 (103.4)
Play Efficiency
6 (133.7)
1 (150.4)
23 (116.0)
90 (94.4)
Rushing S&P+
2 (139.7)
2 (142.0)
20 (119.9)
109 (85.5)
Passing S&P+
13 (129.0)
1 (158.6)
28 (115.4)
54 (103.7)
Std. Downs S&P+
5 (131.1)
1 (139.8)
28 (112.1)
91 (92.7)
Pass. Downs S&P+
15 (133.9)
3 (165.4)
22 (123.7)
72 (99.0)
Drive Efficiency
14 (129.9)
14 (141.5)
19 (134.8)
16 (128.6)
OVERALL
When Oklahoma has the ball
When Clemson has the ball
Category
Oklahoma
Clemson
OU Off
CLEM Def
OU Def
CLEM Off
F/+ Rk
13 (22.3%)
14 (21.1%)
10 (13.8%)
1 (23.4%)
36 (6.3%)
58 (-0.1%)
FEI Rk
22 (.155)
18 (.168)
13 (.482)
1 (-.867)
46 (-.170)
63 (-.049)
Field Position
30 (.522)
64 (.498)
Raw Efficiency
10 (.170)
25 (.095)
15 (.425)
1 (-.646)
32 (-.216)
86 (-.162)
First Down rate
64 (.671)
2 (.500)
18 (.585)
108 (.599)
Available Yards rate
21 (.534)
1 (.266)
20 (.374)
94 (.408)
Explosive Drives
21 (.193)
36 (.106)
41 (.113)
92 (.102)
Methodical Drives
86 (.121)
2 (.056)
42 (.127)
51 (.153)
Value Drives
15 (.504)
2 (.200)
24 (.305)
74 (.368)
Special Team rank
24 (1.210)
107 (-1.263)
Field Goal efficiency
52 (.068)
50 (.076)
Punt Return efficiency
20 (.051)
115 (-.240)
Kickoff return efficiency
2 (.135)
116 (-.265)
punt efficiency
112 (.114)
27 (-.207)
kickoff efficiency
66 (-.153)
110 (-.012)
Now this might have been a treat. Two teams that are close in all three stat systems. It'll be interesting to see how good Clemson's defense is against a good but wildly inconsistent Oklahoma offense. The big question is whether or not Good Clemson (with Deshaun Watson) or Bad Clemson shows up on offense. Watson isn't playing, so expect bad Clemson. Oklahoma has the biggest advantage on defense in the matchup too. In addition to that, Trevor Knight will be back. The numbers are averages from Oklahoma's bad games without Knight and Clemson's good games with Watson - so I expect Oklahoma to roll, eventually.
Texas Bowl: Arkansas at Texas
OVERALL
When Arkansas has the ball
When Texas has the ball
Category
Arkansas
Texas
ARK Off
UT Def
ARK Def
UT Off
F/+ Rk
20 (18.6%)
57 (3.0%)
23 (8.9%)
14 (11.9%)
19 (10.3%)
94 (-5.7%)
S&P+
19 (230.9)
32 (217.7)
18 (114.7)
18 (118.2)
20 (116.2)
66 (99.6)
Play Efficiency
20 (121.3)
7 (132.1)
11 (124.4)
74 (98.6)
Rushing S&P+
18 (123.6)
33 (113.0)
7 (132.1)
51 (107.2)
Passing S&P+
28 (119.6)
4 (154.0)
21 (120.0)
86 (92.3)
Std. Downs S&P+
29 (113.7)
8 (125.1)
11 (122.0)
67 (100.9)
Pass. Downs S&P+
9 (143.4)
7 (150.9)
19 (126.0)
92 (92.2)
Drive Efficiency
11 (132.3)
34 (118.1)
18 (136.2)
40 (112.7)
OVERALL
When Arkansas has the ball
When Texas has the ball
Category
Arkansas
Texas
ARK Off
UT Def
ARK Def
UT Off
F/+ Rk
20 (18.6%)
57 (3.0%)
23 (8.9%)
14 (11.9%)
19 (10.3%)
94 (-5.7%)
FEI Rk
17 (.171)
64 (-.010)
26 (.309)
15 (-.453)
20 (-.388)
104 (-.318)
Field Position
28 (.525)
113 (.466)
Raw Efficiency
31 (.078)
74 (-.012)
44 (.122)
13 (-.408)
44 (-.166)
100 (-.276)
First Down rate
39 (.702)
23 (.596)
25 (.604)
112 (.589)
Available Yards rate
45 (.481)
13 (.351)
38 (.410)
110 (.374)
Explosive Drives
76 (.114)
9 (.068)
47 (.117)
111 (.079)
Methodical Drives
5 (.211)
74 (.151)
54 (.135)
73 (.132)
Value Drives
51 (.408)
14 (.277)
44 (.346)
97 (.328)
Special Team rank
81 (-.385)
117 (-1.841)
Field Goal efficiency
111 (-.401)
88 (-.206)
Punt Return efficiency
120 (-.275)
74 (-.121)
Kickoff return efficiency
23 (-.060)
122 (-.289)
punt efficiency
3 (-.364)
85 (-.020)
kickoff efficiency
109 (-.023)
96 (-.071)
The first SEC win of this page comes against a weak, overrated Texas team. Their defense is excellent - top 20 in the country, and on par with Oregon's (on paper) - but their offense is mediocre and is going up against a top 20 defense as well. Arkansas has also apparently figured out how to win in their last few weeks. FEI in particular loves Arkansas and sees this as an easy win. I don't know about easy, but I don't see how Texas can pull this off; they're even bad in special teams (117th overall).
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