Rose Bowl

Advanced Stats Bowl Season 2014: New Years and everything else

All the rest of the bowls are here in this giant extravaganza! Will S+P beat FEI? Who else will go to the Natty? And what is a Belk?

By kalon Dec 29, 2014, 12:22pm PST

Better be right about that playing football, Cardale.

FEI is the Fremeau Efficiency Index, created by Brian Fremeau. Brian Fremeau is an author at Football Outsiders,ESPN and BCFToys. FEI is an advanced statistical measure for college football that tracks drive efficiency instead of per-play success.
S+P is created by Bill Connelly. Bill Connelly is an author at SBNation, RockMNation, Football Study Hall and Football Outsiders. S+P is an advanced statistical measure which combines success rate, explosiveness per play and opponent adjustments.

New! If you're curious what these numbers mean, here's a glossary, stolen happily from our friends at Roll Bama Roll.

FEI: The Fremeau Efficiency Index, an overall team quality metric that is drive-based and opponent-adjusted. For a more detailed discussion of FEI, check out the PTN primer.
OFEI: The offensive component of FEI.
DFEI: The defensive component of FEI.
FPA: FEI Field Position Advantage, a measure of how much field position value a team earned against its opponents.
STE: FEI Special Teams Efficiency, a composite measure of a team's efficiency in all facets of special teams (kicking, punting, and returning), based on points per game.

S&P+:S&P+ is primarily play-based and consists of three components: Success Rate, Equivalent Net Points per Play, and a drive efficiency component. The "+" refers to opponent adjustments. For a more detailed discussion of S&P+, check out the PTN primer.
OS&P+: The offensive component of S&P+.
DS&P+: The defensive component of S&P+.

Rush OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on rushing plays for the offense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at running the ball.
Rush DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on rushing plays for the defense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at stopping the run.
Pass OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing plays for the offense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at throwing the ball.
Pass DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing plays for the defense — a good measure of a team's effectiveness at defending the pass.

PD: Passing Downs, defined as later downs with medium yardage or more to go (3rd, 4th downs in excess of 5 yards to go), as well as 2nd down with more than 8 yards to go.
SD: Standard Downs, defined as all downs that are not Passing Downs.

SD OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on standard downs for the offense — a good measure of a team's offensive effectiveness on earlier downs and short yardage.
SD DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on standard downs for the defense — a good measure of a team's defensive effectiveness on earlier downs and short yardage.
PD OS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing downs for the offense — a good measure of a team's offensive effectiveness on later downs and long yardage.
PD DS&P+: S&P+ calculated on passing downs for the defense — a good measure of a team's defensive effectiveness on later downs and long yardage.

F/+: The F/+ combined ratings combine FEI and S&P+ into one metric that serves as Football Outsiders' official rankings for college football. For a more detailed discussion of F/+, check out the PTN primer.
Off. F/+: The offensive component of F/+.
Def. F/+: The defensive component of F/+.
ST F/+: The special teams component of F/+.

Music City Bowl: Notre Dame at LSU

	OVERALL		When Notre Dame has the ball		When LSU has the ball
Category	Notre Dame	LSU	ND Off	LSU Def	ND Def	LSU Off
F/+ Rk	36 (11.0%)	18 (19.4%)	32 (7.2%)	11 (14.0%)	50 (2.9%)	48 (3.0%)
S&P+	37 (213.8)	17 (234.0)	24 (112.2)	8 (124.9)	56 (101.5)	35 (109.2)
Play Efficiency			19 (122.8)	5 (139.4)	60 (101.6)	41 (109.6)
Rushing S&P+			31 (116.0)	15 (126.1)	48 (106.1)	27 (116.8)
Passing S&P+			17 (126.2)	5 (152.9)	84 (94.7)	49 (106.0)
Std. Downs S&P+			20 (121.2)	2 (139.7)	63 (101.0)	47 (106.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+			22 (128.1)	12 (130.3)	67 (100.6)	38 (115.9)
Drive Efficiency			34 (114.4)	17 (136.4)	43 (111.7)	8 (135.2)

	OVERALL		When Notre Dame has the ball		When LSU has the ball
Category	Notre Dame	LSU	ND Off	LSU Def	ND Def	LSU Off
F/+ Rk	36 (11.0%)	18 (19.4%)	32 (7.2%)	11 (14.0%)	50 (2.9%)	48 (3.0%)
FEI Rk	44 (.079)	27 (.135)	35 (.245)	13 (-.474)	47 (-.170)	57 (.045)
Field Position	43 (.509)	19 (.534)
Raw Efficiency	47 (.050)	34 (.073)	39 (.179)	16 (-.378)	65 (-.012)	89 (-.171)
First Down rate			24 (.734)	13 (.571)	61 (.667)	106 (.603)
Available Yards rate			19 (.535)	10 (.337)	61 (.447)	101 (.393)
Explosive Drives			29 (.175)	40 (.111)	70 (.135)	104 (.095)
Methodical Drives			60 (.147)	4 (.063)	63 (.142)	79 (.127)
Value Drives			14 (.504)	11 (.267)	80 (.412)	83 (.348)
Special Team rank	46 (.514)	19 (1.375)
Field Goal efficiency	114 (-.430)	73 (-.063)
Punt Return efficiency	25 (.029)	29 (.021)
Kickoff return efficiency	33 (-.080)	40 (-.102)
punt efficiency	57 (-.115)	70 (-.091)
kickoff efficiency	49 (-.186)	10 (-.300)

Do you like defensive domination? Do you like watching Notre Dame get beaten into the dirt? THIS is THE GAME FOR YOU. LSU's offense is decent but not great, and likely matches up well with ND - but boy does that LSU defense have a good shot at crushing Everett Golson (or whoever else they put out there). Even against the pass they have an over 20 point advantage. And Les Miles' special teams are just as good as ever. Watch for the schadenfreude, but not for a particularly good game.

BELK BOWL BELK BOWL BELK BOWL: Georgia at Louisville

	OVERALL		When Georgia has the ball		When Louisville has the ball
Category	Georgia	Louisville	UG Off	UL Def	UG Def	UL Off
F/+ Rk	7 (27.6%)	16 (19.9%)	8 (14.4%)	5 (16.1%)	22 (10.0%)	42 (4.8%)
S&P+	14 (234.6)	18 (232.5)	13 (119.2)	16 (122.0)	23 (115.4)	32 (110.5)
Play Efficiency			11 (128.4)	21 (119.6)	37 (110.5)	34 (115.4)
Rushing S&P+			7 (134.7)	23 (118.0)	69 (100.8)	26 (119.6)
Passing S&P+			24 (123.3)	18 (121.9)	11 (128.1)	38 (113.0)
Std. Downs S&P+			14 (124.2)	14 (120.1)	34 (110.5)	21 (121.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+			13 (134.9)	35 (116.6)	42 (111.6)	62 (101.8)
Drive Efficiency			18 (128.1)	11 (143.6)	13 (143.3)	21 (125.9)

	OVERALL		When Georgia has the ball		When Louisville has the ball
Category	Georgia	Louisville	UG Off	UL Def	UG Def	UL Off
F/+ Rk	7 (27.6%)	16 (19.9%)	8 (14.4%)	5 (16.1%)	22 (10.0%)	42 (4.8%)
FEI Rk	6 (.256)	15 (.176)	10 (.558)	4 (-.636)	21 (-.381)	47 (.129)
Field Position	1 (.585)	109 (.472)
Raw Efficiency	8 (.213)	28 (.088)	11 (.465)	3 (-.621)	46 (-.161)	88 (-.169)
First Down rate			14 (.750)	3 (.503)	28 (.609)	101 (.610)
Available Yards rate			6 (.592)	3 (.311)	31 (.391)	104 (.385)
Explosive Drives			14 (.202)	26 (.097)	17 (.087)	43 (.158)
Methodical Drives			18 (.183)	8 (.076)	89 (.157)	116 (.089)
Value Drives			8 (.540)	10 (.264)	40 (.343)	99 (.323)
Special Team rank	11 (1.802)	88 (-.498)
Field Goal efficiency	70 (-.043)	32 (.236)
Punt Return efficiency	7 (.141)	95 (-.180)
Kickoff return efficiency	19 (-.051)	12 (-.007)
punt efficiency	61 (-.108)	118 (.153)
kickoff efficiency	40 (-.200)	67 (-.146)

This is either going to be a great close matchup or a a blowout by Georgia, depending on if you like FEI or S+P more. S+P thinks both teams on defense have advantages, though Louisville should be able to run effectively thanks to Michael Dyer. FEI looks at a far harder schedule for Georgia and thinks they are much better overall - especially on defense. Special teams also favors Georgia quite a bit, and we could see a punt return TD here. I think Georgia wins comfortably.

Foster Farms Bowl: Maryland at Stanford

	OVERALL		When Maryland has the ball		When Stanford has the ball
Category	Maryland	Stanford	UM Off	FURD Def	UM Def	FURD Off
F/+ Rk	45 (6.3%)	23 (16.9%)	54 (1.6%)	8 (15.0%)	61 (0.2%)	50 (2.7%)
S&P+	59 (203.3)	20 (229.6)	63 (99.7)	7 (126.3)	48 (103.5)	49 (103.3)
Play Efficiency			45 (108.1)	3 (146.1)	46 (107.9)	60 (102.2)
Rushing S&P+			28 (116.4)	5 (139.6)	67 (101.2)	84 (96.4)
Passing S&P+			61 (101.9)	6 (148.2)	30 (115.1)	43 (109.2)
Std. Downs S&P+			37 (111.7)	6 (132.1)	52 (103.5)	60 (103.4)
Pass. Downs S&P+			68 (99.4)	1 (176.2)	29 (119.9)	71 (99.3)
Drive Efficiency			68 (100.8)	29 (119.4)	67 (101.7)	46 (111.3)

	OVERALL		When Maryland has the ball		When Stanford has the ball
Category	Maryland	Stanford	UM Off	FURD Def	UM Def	FURD Off
F/+ Rk	45 (6.3%)	23 (16.9%)	54 (1.6%)	8 (15.0%)	61 (0.2%)	50 (2.7%)
FEI Rk	58 (.017)	20 (.161)	51 (.104)	11 (-.512)	66 (.011)	50 (.117)
Field Position	73 (.494)	49 (.506)
Raw Efficiency	75 (-.027)	26 (.092)	96 (-.216)	14 (-.395)	56 (-.094)	64 (-.007)
First Down rate			117 (.562)	82 (.690)	78 (.683)	45 (.690)
Available Yards rate			114 (.363)	19 (.371)	69 (.457)	51 (.475)
Explosive Drives			66 (.124)	15 (.086)	23 (.092)	77 (.112)
Methodical Drives			122 (.080)	105 (.172)	83 (.155)	47 (.155)
Value Drives			117 (.273)	8 (.262)	52 (.362)	34 (.434)
Special Team rank	6 (2.506)	86 (-.488)
Field Goal efficiency	1 (.869)	67 (-.001)
Punt Return efficiency	4 (.173)	77 (-.123)
Kickoff return efficiency	39 (-.101)	83 (-.178)
punt efficiency	75 (-.080)	105 (.063)
kickoff efficiency	84 (-.102)	16 (-.255)

The records are identical. The teams? not so much. Stanford's defense is still one of the best in the country. Maryland also exists in the country. Stanford's offense is mediocre but that should be enough to score something. Maryland is great at special teams and field goal kicking and punt returns, but that's probably not going to be enough to close the gap.

Peach Bowl: Ole Miss at TCU

	OVERALL		When Ole Miss has the ball		When TCU has the ball
Category	Ole Miss	TCU	Miss Off	TCU Def	Miss Def	TCU Off
F/+ Rk	4 (29.3%)	5 (28.7%)	21 (9.2%)	6 (15.9%)	3 (18.8%)	20 (9.6%)
S&P+	7 (248.2)	10 (239.5)	12 (119.7)	13 (123.2)	5 (128.5)	16 (116.3)
Play Efficiency			15 (125.0)	17 (121.8)	2 (146.7)	26 (118.5)
Rushing S&P+			37 (112.7)	6 (134.5)	4 (140.0)	13 (127.7)
Passing S&P+			9 (133.9)	34 (112.5)	3 (155.2)	36 (113.7)
Std. Downs S&P+			16 (123.8)	18 (119.1)	3 (138.6)	25 (116.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+			23 (126.4)	26 (121.6)	2 (169.3)	27 (123.6)
Drive Efficiency			3 (147.0)	9 (149.1)	15 (140.5)	13 (131.4)

	OVERALL		When Mississippi has the ball		When TCU has the ball
Category	Mississippi	TCU	Miss Off	TCU Def	Miss Def	TCU Off
F/+ Rk	4 (29.3%)	5 (28.7%)	21 (9.2%)	6 (15.9%)	3 (18.8%)	20 (9.6%)
FEI Rk	7 (.242)	8 (.229)	34 (.251)	6 (-.607)	3 (-.699)	23 (.324)
Field Position	18 (.534)	4 (.568)
Raw Efficiency	11 (.164)	4 (.225)	56 (.062)	6 (-.488)	5 (-.574)	27 (.286)
First Down rate			56 (.680)	6 (.541)	29 (.611)	15 (.748)
Available Yards rate			53 (.472)	12 (.345)	8 (.335)	14 (.556)
Explosive Drives			23 (.192)	71 (.135)	4 (.056)	15 (.201)
Methodical Drives			104 (.104)	25 (.101)	30 (.111)	117 (.086)
Value Drives			52 (.405)	20 (.290)	5 (.244)	19 (.487)
Special Team rank	39 (.715)	10 (1.837)
Field Goal efficiency	79 (-.120)	10 (.465)
Punt Return efficiency	121 (-.282)	19 (.053)
Kickoff return efficiency	43 (-.108)	90 (-.197)
punt efficiency	22 (-.227)	38 (-.160)
kickoff efficiency	4 (-.346)	24 (-.226)

Now this is a game worth watching. Two top 10 teams as close as they can be. The key will be whether Dr. Bo can pass well against the somewhat vulnerable pass defense of TCU and whether TCU can do anything against Ole Miss's great defense. FEI agrees largely, though discounts Ole Miss's offense as being propped up by weak competition. Special teams are still a big win for TCU, especially on punting. Ole Miss should win this in a close, defensive struggle.

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State at Arizona

	OVERALL		When Boise State has the ball		When Arizona has the ball
Category	Boise State	Arizona	fBSU Off	UA Def	fBSU Def	UA Off
F/+ Rk	25 (15.9%)	33 (12.7%)	31 (7.3%)	37 (6.2%)	26 (9.1%)	33 (6.9%)
S&P+	13 (235.6)	44 (210.9)	14 (119.0)	43 (106.3)	19 (116.6)	44 (104.6)
Play Efficiency			12 (128.3)	27 (114.1)	30 (112.8)	68 (100.5)
Rushing S&P+			16 (126.9)	31 (114.1)	28 (115.6)	67 (102.0)
Passing S&P+			12 (131.3)	37 (111.9)	40 (110.1)	71 (98.7)
Std. Downs S&P+			7 (130.0)	27 (112.2)	49 (106.0)	65 (102.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			33 (121.0)	36 (116.4)	14 (129.3)	80 (96.8)
Drive Efficiency			19 (127.8)	44 (111.7)	11 (143.6)	22 (123.4)

	OVERALL		When Boise State has the ball		When Arizona has the ball
Category	Boise State	Arizona	fBSU Off	UA Def	fBSU Def	UA Off
F/+ Rk	25 (15.9%)	33 (12.7%)	31 (7.3%)	37 (6.2%)	26 (9.1%)	33 (6.9%)
FEI Rk	36 (.107)	14 (.183)	44 (.148)	33 (-.295)	29 (-.310)	20 (.341)
Field Position	31 (.518)	22 (.531)
Raw Efficiency	16 (.148)	36 (.069)	18 (.401)	68 (.032)	28 (-.235)	28 (.276)
First Down rate			33 (.713)	90 (.707)	11 (.565)	12 (.755)
Available Yards rate			16 (.541)	70 (.458)	22 (.374)	32 (.503)
Explosive Drives			20 (.194)	67 (.132)	65 (.131)	26 (.178)
Methodical Drives			56 (.150)	37 (.120)	32 (.113)	70 (.135)
Value Drives			20 (.486)	63 (.376)	27 (.316)	33 (.434)
Special Team rank	74 (-.247)	75 (-.254)
Field Goal efficiency	69 (-.042)	87 (-.206)
Punt Return efficiency	64 (-.072)	85 (-.140)
Kickoff return efficiency	123 (-.294)	97 (-.212)
punt efficiency	42 (-.152)	49 (-.129)
kickoff efficiency	54 (-.180)	23 (-.235)

Huh. I didn't think BSU was that good this year. This is another 'what stat system do you trust' question, and so far FEI has been winning that war. S+P sees a Boise team that has crushed their weak competition handily and is better on offense and much better on defense than Arizona, pretty much everywhere. FEI sees an Arizona team with one of the hardest schedules in the land and has advantages everywhere. Special teams are a wash, though Arizona should be able to get good value on kickoffs against a 123rd ranked return team. I'm going with FEI on this one and another PAC-12 win.

Orange Bowl: Mississippi State at Georgia Tech

	OVERALL		When Mississippi State has the ball		When Georgia Tech has the ball
Category	Mississippi State	Georgia Tech	MSST Off	GT Def	MSST Def	GT Off
F/+ Rk	6 (27.8%)	10 (25.8%)	14 (12.2%)	58 (0.9%)	9 (14.8%)	1 (22.8%)
S&P+	5 (250.7)	23 (224.3)	4 (125.9)	58 (99.9)	9 (124.9)	5 (124.3)
Play Efficiency			7 (133.6)	89 (94.2)	20 (119.9)	4 (139.2)
Rushing S&P+			5 (135.8)	96 (91.3)	21 (118.8)	4 (137.8)
Passing S&P+			8 (134.2)	81 (95.7)	16 (122.3)	6 (144.3)
Std. Downs S&P+			6 (130.0)	79 (97.5)	29 (111.9)	3 (133.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			11 (138.0)	107 (86.7)	11 (137.3)	4 (149.2)
Drive Efficiency			4 (146.2)	23 (125.1)	6 (162.5)	17 (128.3)

	OVERALL		When Mississippi State has the ball		When Georgia Tech has the ball
Category	Mississippi State	Georgia Tech	MSST Off	GT Def	MSST Def	GT Off
F/+ Rk	6 (27.8%)	10 (25.8%)	14 (12.2%)	58 (0.9%)	9 (14.8%)	1 (22.8%)
FEI Rk	10 (.218)	3 (.266)	21 (.333)	57 (-.080)	10 (-.518)	1 (.968)
Field Position	24 (.526)	15 (.541)
Raw Efficiency	9 (.198)	18 (.143)	26 (.303)	92 (.183)	10 (-.421)	5 (.615)
First Down rate			37 (.706)	93 (.709)	32 (.618)	2 (.826)
Available Yards rate			23 (.529)	106 (.541)	28 (.384)	3 (.611)
Explosive Drives			28 (.176)	80 (.145)	57 (.125)	31 (.174)
Methodical Drives			50 (.154)	126 (.222)	14 (.083)	3 (.217)
Value Drives			26 (.457)	116 (.514)	18 (.288)	4 (.545)
Special Team rank	48 (.462)	23 (1.224)
Field Goal efficiency	89 (-.208)	94 (-.250)
Punt Return efficiency	109 (-.234)	6 (.156)
Kickoff return efficiency	22 (-.056)	68 (-.151)
punt efficiency	50 (-.127)	40 (-.154)
kickoff efficiency	8 (-.319)	47 (-.188)

Another S+P vs. FEI battle. GT is seen as the darling in FEI (ranked #3), mostly due to their great offense (#1). S+P has MSST with an over 25 point advantage - while GT's offense is still great, their defense is still horrible. I think FEI gets this one wrong and that it's Mississippi State in a landslide.

Outback Bowl: Auburn at Wisconsin

	OVERALL		When Auburn has the ball		When Wisconsin has the ball
Category	Auburn	Wisconsin	AUB Off	UW Def	AUB Def	UW Off
F/+ Rk	12 (23.5%)	17 (19.8%)	5 (18.0%)	18 (10.5%)	38 (6.1%)	18 (10.0%)
S&P+	16 (234.2)	9 (243.3)	6 (122.4)	14 (122.7)	29 (111.8)	9 (120.7)
Play Efficiency			5 (136.8)	26 (114.2)	29 (113.5)	18 (124.2)
Rushing S&P+			12 (127.9)	29 (114.7)	18 (120.5)	10 (131.8)
Passing S&P+			2 (160.8)	31 (113.7)	47 (107.9)	42 (109.7)
Std. Downs S&P+			13 (124.8)	54 (102.9)	41 (108.8)	9 (129.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+			2 (171.8)	9 (144.7)	18 (126.2)	49 (106.4)
Drive Efficiency			12 (131.5)	7 (156.5)	16 (138.9)	6 (138.4)

	OVERALL		When Auburn has the ball		When Wisconsin has the ball
Category	Auburn	Wisconsin	AUB Off	UW Def	AUB Def	UW Off
F/+ Rk	12 (23.5%)	17 (19.8%)	5 (18.0%)	18 (10.5%)	38 (6.1%)	18 (10.0%)
FEI Rk	11 (.214)	30 (.127)	2 (.722)	31 (-.301)	41 (-.208)	31 (.281)
Field Position	52 (.505)	95 (.484)
Raw Efficiency	33 (.073)	13 (.159)	14 (.443)	15 (-.390)	82 (.133)	21 (.355)
First Down rate			5 (.775)	7 (.544)	57 (.664)	63 (.672)
Available Yards rate			9 (.574)	7 (.330)	85 (.486)	28 (.511)
Explosive Drives			24 (.192)	68 (.132)	97 (.172)	2 (.299)
Methodical Drives			27 (.167)	3 (.059)	71 (.148)	103 (.104)
Value Drives			11 (.524)	3 (.223)	93 (.440)	28 (.449)
Special Team rank	79 (-.340)	80 (-.371)
Field Goal efficiency	85 (-.172)	8 (.489)
Punt Return efficiency	45 (-.024)	65 (-.072)
Kickoff return efficiency	120 (-.277)	102 (-.222)
punt efficiency	64 (-.105)	113 (.119)
kickoff efficiency	51 (-.185)	56 (-.171)

Another place where the stats disagree. Seeing a trend? This happens because the advanced stats fall in love with certain conferences and hate others, and that only gets reinforced as the season goes on. So all Big-10 schools are much more loved by S+P than FEI. All ACC schools are much loved by FEI and disliked by S+P. My theory is that when two great teams meet S+P is more predictive, but when you get things like Boise State, it tends to be wrong. ANyway - Auburn is loved by FEI and only liked by S+P. The main problem is that Auburn isn't good at defense all that much - but where they are good is against the run. I can't see Wisconsin doing well passing against Auburn. And I can't see them stopping Nick Marshall all that well.

Cotton Bowl: Michigan State at Baylor

	OVERALL		When Michigan State has the ball		When Baylor has the ball
Category	Michigan State	Baylor	MSU Off	Baylor Def	MSU Def	Baylor Off
F/+ Rk	11 (23.6%)	9 (27.0%)	15 (11.1%)	16 (11.7%)	24 (9.7%)	11 (13.7%)
S&P+	6 (248.9)	8 (243.9)	8 (121.5)	11 (123.9)	6 (127.4)	11 (120.0)
Play Efficiency			9 (132.9)	28 (113.9)	8 (131.9)	14 (125.7)
Rushing S&P+			17 (124.5)	19 (120.3)	14 (126.5)	23 (121.1)
Passing S&P+			4 (145.9)	45 (108.2)	8 (135.0)	11 (131.4)
Std. Downs S&P+			10 (128.4)	40 (109.6)	20 (117.6)	15 (123.8)
Pass. Downs S&P+			7 (144.1)	24 (122.5)	5 (158.7)	24 (125.3)
Drive Efficiency			20 (127.4)	5 (167.0)	8 (151.0)	9 (134.0)

	OVERALL		When Michigan State has the ball		When Baylor has the ball
Category	Michigan State	Baylor	MSU Off	Baylor Def	MSU Def	Baylor Off
F/+ Rk	11 (23.6%)	9 (27.0%)	15 (11.1%)	16 (11.7%)	24 (9.7%)	11 (13.7%)
FEI Rk	19 (.165)	9 (.218)	22 (.333)	23 (-.353)	43 (-.187)	12 (.504)
Field Position	9 (.549)	7 (.553)
Raw Efficiency	6 (.216)	5 (.223)	23 (.324)	35 (-.206)	19 (-.362)	10 (.537)
First Down rate			10 (.764)	12 (.566)	4 (.508)	3 (.793)
Available Yards rate			17 (.538)	29 (.385)	6 (.327)	4 (.604)
Explosive Drives			47 (.154)	94 (.169)	79 (.145)	11 (.207)
Methodical Drives			85 (.122)	22 (.096)	1 (.032)	6 (.207)
Value Drives			18 (.495)	31 (.323)	13 (.270)	6 (.542)
Special Team rank	14 (1.556)	33 (.913)
Field Goal efficiency	95 (-.250)	39 (.168)
Punt Return efficiency	70 (-.099)	79 (-.126)
Kickoff return efficiency	6 (.048)	28 (-.070)
punt efficiency	19 (-.243)	17 (-.247)
kickoff efficiency	29 (-.216)	90 (-.090)

As with Wisconsin, MIchigan State is brought down due to the Big-10 effect - though we've seen the big-10 so far be a bit more competitive than we had thought they might be. One deciding factor here is how Baylor will defend Connor Cook and the passing game, which has a 40 point advantage. MSU's defense is dominant across the board via stats. FEI thinks the big advantage is going to be Baylor's offense vs. a weak MSU defense. Special teams favor MSU quite a bit, especially on kick returns - a problem Baylor has had all year. I think MSU can at least cover, and I suspect they'll win.

Citrus Bowl: Missouri at Minnesota

	OVERALL		When Missouri has the ball		When Minnesota has the ball
Category	Missouri	Minnesota	Mizz Off	Minn Def	Mizz Def	Minn Off
F/+ Rk	31 (13.2%)	35 (12.1%)	52 (2.1%)	42 (5.0%)	21 (10.1%)	44 (3.8%)
S&P+	33 (217.3)	40 (212.0)	50 (103.0)	42 (107.0)	25 (114.4)	43 (105.0)
Play Efficiency			62 (102.1)	34 (112.1)	12 (124.3)	42 (109.1)
Rushing S&P+			48 (107.9)	30 (114.7)	11 (128.3)	41 (111.4)
Passing S&P+			66 (100.2)	43 (108.7)	22 (119.6)	51 (105.8)
Std. Downs S&P+			66 (102.0)	32 (110.6)	22 (116.4)	42 (109.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			53 (105.3)	40 (113.4)	10 (143.2)	55 (104.5)
Drive Efficiency			29 (117.7)	45 (111.3)	35 (116.7)	38 (113.3)

	OVERALL		When Missouri has the ball		When Minnesota has the ball
Category	Missouri	Minnesota	Mizz Off	Minn Def	Mizz Def	Minn Off
F/+ Rk	31 (13.2%)	35 (12.1%)	52 (2.1%)	42 (5.0%)	21 (10.1%)	44 (3.8%)
FEI Rk	23 (.148)	34 (.115)	53 (.086)	40 (-.213)	19 (-.405)	43 (.154)
Field Position	78 (.490)	11 (.547)
Raw Efficiency	32 (.078)	41 (.061)	57 (.061)	47 (-.144)	24 (-.278)	67 (-.040)
First Down rate			84 (.647)	27 (.608)	70 (.674)	85 (.646)
Available Yards rate			74 (.438)	41 (.414)	25 (.376)	76 (.437)
Explosive Drives			60 (.135)	86 (.152)	30 (.099)	89 (.102)
Methodical Drives			20 (.180)	38 (.120)	87 (.156)	42 (.157)
Value Drives			88 (.341)	34 (.330)	22 (.299)	96 (.330)
Special Team rank	45 (.530)	9 (1.861)
Field Goal efficiency	36 (.216)	110 (-.399)
Punt Return efficiency	39 (-.010)	23 (.042)
Kickoff return efficiency	20 (-.052)	14 (-.021)
punt efficiency	81 (-.045)	14 (-.266)
kickoff efficiency	102 (-.059)	21 (-.239)

This should be another paint grow game - two great defenses, two struggling offenses that run the ball a lot. Missouri is favored by both S+P and FEI, mostly because of their stronger defense. Special teams favors Minnesota on kick returns especially, and I think that's probably the difference in this game - a Minnesota win.

Sugar Bowl: Alabama at Ohio State

	OVERALL		When Alabama has the ball		When Ohio State has the ball
Category	Alabama	Ohio State	BAMA Off	OSU Def	BAMA Def	OSU Off
F/+ Rk	1 (38.4%)	2 (36.5%)	3 (19.8%)	7 (15.4%)	2 (19.7%)	4 (18.8%)
S&P+	1 (270.7)	2 (266.0)	2 (133.1)	4 (129.7)	1 (137.6)	1 (136.3)
Play Efficiency			2 (142.1)	19 (120.5)	9 (131.0)	1 (154.6)
Rushing S&P+			8 (133.4)	37 (110.0)	1 (159.7)	1 (148.3)
Passing S&P+			3 (154.9)	10 (129.8)	26 (116.9)	1 (163.8)
Std. Downs S&P+			2 (137.9)	19 (119.1)	5 (132.7)	1 (141.1)
Pass. Downs S&P+			6 (144.3)	33 (117.5)	17 (126.2)	1 (184.8)
Drive Efficiency			1 (163.3)	3 (177.1)	2 (188.7)	2 (153.2)

	OVERALL		When Alabama has the ball		When Ohio State has the ball
Category	Alabama	Ohio State	BAMA Off	OSU Def	BAMA Def	OSU Off
F/+ Rk	1 (38.4%)	2 (36.5%)	3 (19.8%)	7 (15.4%)	2 (19.7%)	4 (18.8%)
FEI Rk	2 (.315)	5 (.257)	5 (.666)	12 (-.487)	5 (-.617)	9 (.560)
Field Position	87 (.487)	3 (.576)
Raw Efficiency	7 (.215)	1 (.295)	8 (.562)	17 (-.374)	7 (-.462)	4 (.618)
First Down rate			30 (.715)	10 (.552)	44 (.634)	6 (.772)
Available Yards rate			15 (.554)	5 (.322)	17 (.368)	2 (.643)
Explosive Drives			27 (.177)	27 (.097)	10 (.075)	6 (.243)
Methodical Drives			34 (.162)	13 (.083)	113 (.179)	109 (.096)
Value Drives			13 (.508)	4 (.237)	9 (.263)	3 (.593)
Special Team rank	91 (-.595)	20 (1.275)
Field Goal efficiency	99 (-.287)	77 (-.110)
Punt Return efficiency	117 (-.252)	34 (.004)
Kickoff return efficiency	89 (-.192)	93 (-.202)
punt efficiency	9 (-.289)	8 (-.298)
kickoff efficiency	75 (-.125)	30 (-.213)

While we naturally talk about Noles and Oregon a lot more, by stats this is the main game, and Oregon and FSU are just playing for the right to be beaten. S+P sees OSU as the second best team in the nation and barely worse than Alabama. Both teams have massive advantages passing the ball, though OSU's advantage is a bit more (almost 50 points). The problem is that OSU will run into the brick wall that is the Bama rushing defense. While OSU's defense is solid, they are disadvantagedeverywhere across the board - and having a balanced attack tends to be stronger than having one advantage in one place. FEI sees this as being even more in favor of Bama, again due to the Big-10 effect. Onebig advantage OSU does have is on special teams, particularly in punting the ball. I don't think that's enough, especially with Cardale Jones making his second start.

Armed Forces Bowl: Houston at Pittsburgh

	OVERALL		When Houston has the ball		When Pittsburgh has the ball
Category	Houston	Pittsburgh	HOU Off	PITT Def	HOU Def	PITT Off
F/+ Rk	79 (-7.1%)	39 (9.8%)	74 (-3.2%)	73 (-3.4%)	69 (-2.1%)	13 (12.9%)
S&P+	86 (190.9)	36 (213.9)	83 (95.3)	68 (97.9)	81 (95.6)	17 (116.0)
Play Efficiency			92 (91.1)	86 (94.6)	111 (88.6)	10 (128.7)
Rushing S&P+			63 (103.5)	93 (92.2)	111 (84.1)	6 (135.7)
Passing S&P+			116 (80.0)	76 (97.6)	93 (92.7)	25 (122.5)
Std. Downs S&P+			82 (95.8)	107 (89.6)	115 (86.8)	11 (127.3)
Pass. Downs S&P+			112 (81.9)	43 (110.9)	74 (96.8)	30 (122.2)
Drive Efficiency			65 (101.4)	56 (104.7)	74 (97.3)	42 (112.7)

	OVERALL		When Houston has the ball		When Pittsburgh has the ball
Category	Houston	Pittsburgh	HOU Off	PITT Def	HOU Def	PITT Off
F/+ Rk	79 (-7.1%)	39 (9.8%)	74 (-3.2%)	73 (-3.4%)	69 (-2.1%)	13 (12.9%)
FEI Rk	63 (-.007)	37 (.103)	72 (-.111)	78 (.143)	67 (.029)	11 (.522)
Field Position	51 (.505)	41 (.512)
Raw Efficiency	46 (.051)	65 (.011)	73 (-.072)	83 (.137)	26 (-.258)	40 (.153)
First Down rate			94 (.618)	63 (.669)	43 (.634)	19 (.740)
Available Yards rate			70 (.446)	55 (.439)	33 (.398)	25 (.522)
Explosive Drives			75 (.115)	88 (.161)	24 (.092)	48 (.154)
Methodical Drives			17 (.183)	78 (.153)	47 (.130)	10 (.195)
Value Drives			54 (.405)	59 (.372)	32 (.327)	27 (.452)
Special Team rank	101 (-1.011)	60 (.180)
Field Goal efficiency	86 (-.192)	59 (.037)
Punt Return efficiency	86 (-.154)	78 (-.124)
Kickoff return efficiency	113 (-.261)	27 (-.069)
punt efficiency	68 (-.093)	71 (-.087)
kickoff efficiency	57 (-.171)	74 (-.130)

So after the awesomeness that is New Years' bowl games, we get...a lot of bleh. I don't get this scheduling at all. Anyway, Pittsburgh should be able to obliterate Houston, especially running the ball. There's not a lot more that needs to be said about this game. This is one of the very last college football games for the season. You'll watch it, and be grateful, you greedy jerks.

Taxslayer Bowl: Iowa at Tennessee

	OVERALL		When Iowa has the ball		When Tennessee has the ball
Category	Iowa	Tennessee	Iowa Off	UT Def	Iowa Def	UT Off
F/+ Rk	55 (3.4%)	43 (7.5%)	56 (0.7%)	31 (7.6%)	47 (4.1%)	69 (-2.0%)
S&P+	61 (201.7)	39 (212.5)	76 (97.0)	30 (111.7)	47 (104.7)	57 (100.8)
Play Efficiency			84 (95.4)	18 (121.4)	42 (109.0)	52 (106.2)
Rushing S&P+			102 (88.4)	22 (118.4)	24 (118.0)	50 (107.6)
Passing S&P+			55 (103.6)	13 (123.9)	65 (99.3)	47 (107.1)
Std. Downs S&P+			98 (91.5)	17 (119.5)	42 (108.5)	49 (105.5)
Pass. Downs S&P+			45 (109.0)	20 (124.5)	56 (106.1)	44 (111.1)
Drive Efficiency			61 (102.7)	38 (115.0)	59 (103.4)	51 (109.9)

	OVERALL		When Iowa has the ball		When Tennessee has the ball
Category	Iowa	Tennessee	Iowa Off	UT Def	Iowa Def	UT Off
F/+ Rk	55 (3.4%)	43 (7.5%)	56 (0.7%)	31 (7.6%)	47 (4.1%)	69 (-2.0%)
FEI Rk	45 (.061)	42 (.084)	52 (.095)	32 (-.296)	42 (-.196)	77 (-.122)
Field Position	83 (.487)	20 (.533)
Raw Efficiency	48 (.047)	62 (.018)	54 (.067)	48 (-.138)	34 (-.206)	87 (-.166)
First Down rate			50 (.685)	22 (.594)	14 (.575)	86 (.645)
Available Yards rate			54 (.470)	23 (.375)	14 (.367)	95 (.404)
Explosive Drives			70 (.121)	73 (.138)	33 (.102)	116 (.071)
Methodical Drives			23 (.177)	12 (.080)	34 (.118)	71 (.135)
Value Drives			58 (.402)	17 (.283)	15 (.282)	79 (.358)
Special Team rank	95 (-.784)	27 (1.102)
Field Goal efficiency	76 (-.095)	43 (.102)
Punt Return efficiency	42 (-.021)	46 (-.028)
Kickoff return efficiency	87 (-.183)	71 (-.159)
punt efficiency	117 (.134)	51 (-.125)
kickoff efficiency	43 (-.198)	14 (-.262)

This game might be a bit closer. Both defenses have advantages over both offenses - S+P sees Tennessee as being the better team, FEI sees Iowa. When it doubt, check the special teams - and sure enough, Tennessee has it in the bag here, especially on field goals and kicks. I think Tennessee pulls it out.

Alamo Bowl: Kansas State at UCLA

	OVERALL		When Kansas State has the ball		When UCLA has the ball
Category	Kansas State	UCLA	KSU Off	UCLA Def	KSU Def	UCLA Off
F/+ Rk	21 (17.5%)	19 (18.8%)	16 (10.5%)	49 (3.0%)	51 (2.1%)	7 (15.0%)
S&P+	25 (220.3)	24 (221.6)	27 (112.0)	40 (107.6)	38 (108.3)	20 (114.1)
Play Efficiency			30 (116.8)	31 (112.8)	40 (110.0)	13 (125.7)
Rushing S&P+			45 (109.3)	54 (105.2)	27 (115.9)	11 (130.0)
Passing S&P+			23 (123.6)	23 (119.2)	51 (107.2)	18 (125.3)
Std. Downs S&P+			36 (112.4)	37 (110.2)	43 (108.4)	12 (126.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+			20 (128.7)	32 (118.0)	37 (115.9)	34 (118.0)
Drive Efficiency			24 (120.7)	42 (113.0)	23 (125.1)	26 (120.2)

	OVERALL		When Kansas State has the ball		When UCLA has the ball
Category	Kansas State	UCLA	KSU Off	UCLA Def	KSU Def	UCLA Off
F/+ Rk	21 (17.5%)	19 (18.8%)	16 (10.5%)	49 (3.0%)	51 (2.1%)	7 (15.0%)
FEI Rk	24 (.146)	12 (.208)	15 (.440)	54 (-.090)	60 (-.027)	4 (.667)
Field Position	12 (.546)	66 (.497)
Raw Efficiency	14 (.159)	43 (.056)	13 (.453)	67 (.016)	70 (.047)	29 (.255)
First Down rate			21 (.738)	66 (.671)	47 (.636)	8 (.769)
Available Yards rate			12 (.564)	58 (.441)	66 (.452)	38 (.494)
Explosive Drives			34 (.168)	6 (.062)	22 (.091)	33 (.170)
Methodical Drives			57 (.150)	125 (.219)	116 (.191)	31 (.163)
Value Drives			10 (.526)	41 (.343)	65 (.385)	45 (.416)
Special Team rank	4 (2.750)	49 (.450)
Field Goal efficiency	44 (.099)	40 (.156)
Punt Return efficiency	2 (.341)	104 (-.211)
Kickoff return efficiency	13 (-.019)	32 (-.080)
punt efficiency	88 (-.013)	43 (-.150)
kickoff efficiency	27 (-.218)	53 (-.182)

Now this is an intriguing matchup. FEI loves the PAC-12 but otherwise this game is very even. Both offenses have about a 5 point advantage on both defenses via S+P, though UCLA has bigger advantages on running and passing. The big difference is that KSU gets stops. KSU is of course good at special teams - this will always be the way with a Bill Snyder coached team - but I don't think it's enough to put KState over the top. I think UCLA wins this one, though the opportunity for Mora to crap the bed is high.

Cactus Bowl: Washington at Oklahoma State

	OVERALL		When Washington has the ball		When Oklahoma State has the ball
Category	Washington	Oklahoma State	UW Off	OKST Def	UW Def	OKST Off
F/+ Rk	51 (5.0%)	68 (-2.8%)	92 (-5.4%)	71 (-2.8%)	30 (7.7%)	77 (-3.4%)
S&P+	70 (197.4)	73 (195.5)	82 (95.6)	61 (99.4)	55 (101.8)	80 (96.0)
Play Efficiency			82 (95.9)	44 (108.1)	52 (106.3)	69 (100.5)
Rushing S&P+			65 (102.8)	41 (109.3)	47 (106.2)	85 (95.3)
Passing S&P+			91 (91.2)	53 (106.7)	55 (104.9)	45 (107.7)
Std. Downs S&P+			71 (98.9)	46 (107.5)	51 (105.3)	70 (99.2)
Pass. Downs S&P+			106 (88.5)	57 (106.0)	49 (108.2)	50 (106.2)
Drive Efficiency			80 (96.4)	82 (94.3)	71 (99.3)	82 (95.1)

	OVERALL		When Washington has the ball		When Oklahoma State has the ball
Category	Washington	Oklahoma State	UW Off	OKST Def	UW Def	OKST Off
F/+ Rk	51 (5.0%)	68 (-2.8%)	92 (-5.4%)	71 (-2.8%)	30 (7.7%)	77 (-3.4%)
FEI Rk	40 (.089)	80 (-.058)	96 (-.243)	75 (.125)	16 (-.448)	80 (-.131)
Field Position	14 (.543)	68 (.496)
Raw Efficiency	30 (.080)	88 (-.070)	85 (-.161)	93 (.190)	22 (-.329)	83 (-.155)
First Down rate			96 (.618)	40 (.630)	56 (.662)	105 (.604)
Available Yards rate			87 (.419)	72 (.461)	35 (.406)	108 (.380)
Explosive Drives			65 (.125)	93 (.167)	11 (.076)	63 (.129)
Methodical Drives			59 (.147)	59 (.138)	65 (.145)	111 (.094)
Value Drives			69 (.378)	77 (.407)	36 (.336)	109 (.295)
Special Team rank	15 (1.535)	8 (1.867)
Field Goal efficiency	27 (.289)	33 (.224)
Punt Return efficiency	31 (.013)	50 (-.034)
Kickoff return efficiency	16 (-.042)	9 (.030)
punt efficiency	52 (-.125)	55 (-.122)
kickoff efficiency	72 (-.136)	38 (-.201)

I hate writing bout this one. It's just so...meh. UW's offense is horrible and should have trouble moving the ball. UW's defense is either decent or excellent depending on what you believe in more, and OKST's offense isn't great either. Special teams are great on both ssides? That's good, right? In this case, I think Oklahoma State has enough in the tank to win.

Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina at Florida

	OVERALL		When East Carolina has the ball		When Florida has the ball
Category	East Carolina	Florida	ECU Off	UF Def	ECU Def	UF Off
F/+ Rk	58 (2.7%)	41 (9.3%)	37 (6.3%)	12 (12.9%)	63 (-0.5%)	97 (-5.9%)
S&P+	48 (209.3)	42 (211.5)	34 (109.6)	21 (115.8)	59 (99.7)	81 (95.7)
Play Efficiency			44 (108.2)	10 (124.6)	103 (91.2)	79 (96.2)
Rushing S&P+			44 (109.6)	16 (124.0)	45 (107.7)	71 (100.5)
Passing S&P+			48 (106.0)	12 (124.2)	113 (83.1)	90 (91.7)
Std. Downs S&P+			46 (106.3)	7 (125.2)	87 (94.7)	96 (91.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+			40 (115.4)	30 (119.3)	110 (84.7)	46 (108.7)
Drive Efficiency			30 (117.4)	37 (115.7)	50 (108.0)	57 (103.9)

	OVERALL		When East Carolina has the ball		When Florida has the ball
Category	East Carolina	Florida	ECU Off	UF Def	ECU Def	UF Off
F/+ Rk	58 (2.7%)	41 (9.3%)	37 (6.3%)	12 (12.9%)	63 (-0.5%)	97 (-5.9%)
FEI Rk	48 (.043)	39 (.093)	37 (.234)	8 (-.543)	63 (.001)	101 (-.269)
Field Position	46 (.507)	13 (.546)
Raw Efficiency	27 (.090)	54 (.039)	20 (.356)	9 (-.447)	61 (-.073)	108 (-.362)
First Down rate			4 (.778)	19 (.587)	26 (.607)	91 (.635)
Available Yards rate			13 (.561)	11 (.344)	48 (.432)	105 (.384)
Explosive Drives			52 (.148)	38 (.107)	49 (.119)	88 (.103)
Methodical Drives			13 (.185)	18 (.091)	70 (.148)	99 (.111)
Value Drives			21 (.483)	6 (.248)	50 (.361)	116 (.273)
Special Team rank	114 (-1.756)	21 (1.262)
Field Goal efficiency	106 (-.358)	30 (.246)
Punt Return efficiency	47 (-.031)	16 (.061)
Kickoff return efficiency	128 (-.357)	38 (-.099)
punt efficiency	86 (-.017)	89 (-.007)
kickoff efficiency	78 (-.121)	28 (-.217)

If it weren't for Florida's horrible offense this would be an interesting game. The teams are pretty close and match up strength for strength. It's going to be something of a defensive struggle, and that favors Florida - which has a big advantage returning punts and killing drives.

GoDaddy Bowl: Toledo at Arkansas State

	OVERALL		When Toledo has the ball		When Arkansas State has the ball
Category	Toledo	Arkansas State	TOL Off	ASU Def	TOL Def	ASU Off
F/+ Rk	63 (-0.6%)	75 (-5.2%)	38 (6.1%)	80 (-4.3%)	100 (-7.3%)	62 (-0.5%)
S&P+	60 (202.6)	68 (198.4)	42 (105.3)	70 (97.9)	73 (97.3)	61 (100.5)
Play Efficiency			48 (107.0)	92 (92.7)	90 (93.8)	59 (102.2)
Rushing S&P+			38 (112.6)	104 (87.9)	46 (106.7)	66 (102.3)
Passing S&P+			63 (101.2)	70 (98.6)	105 (88.1)	57 (102.6)
Std. Downs S&P+			41 (110.4)	99 (92.4)	112 (88.2)	53 (104.4)
Pass. Downs S&P+			65 (99.7)	82 (94.2)	45 (109.8)	64 (99.8)
Drive Efficiency			58 (103.4)	49 (108.4)	60 (103.1)	63 (102.4)

	OVERALL		When Toledo has the ball		When Arkansas State has the ball
Category	Toledo	Arkansas State	TOL Off	ASU Def	TOL Def	ASU Off
F/+ Rk	63 (-0.6%)	75 (-5.2%)	38 (6.1%)	80 (-4.3%)	100 (-7.3%)	62 (-0.5%)
FEI Rk	71 (-.029)	81 (-.062)	29 (.284)	86 (.194)	107 (.360)	61 (-.030)
Field Position	81 (.489)	23 (.527)
Raw Efficiency	50 (.043)	40 (.062)	19 (.370)	51 (-.118)	96 (.199)	49 (.094)
First Down rate			22 (.736)	33 (.619)	96 (.713)	61 (.674)
Available Yards rate			18 (.538)	36 (.409)	86 (.486)	58 (.468)
Explosive Drives			19 (.194)	63 (.129)	90 (.163)	16 (.201)
Methodical Drives			11 (.194)	28 (.109)	97 (.163)	82 (.125)
Value Drives			22 (.478)	46 (.354)	83 (.420)	68 (.379)
Special Team rank	54 (.334)	72 (-.188)
Field Goal efficiency	45 (.093)	124 (-.661)
Punt Return efficiency	13 (.080)	69 (-.097)
Kickoff return efficiency	109 (-.242)	24 (-.060)
punt efficiency	87 (-.014)	31 (-.190)
kickoff efficiency	45 (-.193)	69 (-.143)

This is the final bowl before the national championship. Really? Toledo and ARST? Oy. Well, it'll probably be something of a close game with a lot of offense - both offenses have advantages. Toledo should in particular be able to run very well. Watch it to say good bye to the bowl season if nothing else. Or go outside and either cry a bit more about an Oregon loss or panic a bit more about playing Alabama or Ohio State.