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Advanced Stats Saturday Week 15 2014

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Championship week is upon us, and we have...well, a lot of anticlimactic games, on paper. The best of the lot? Florida State vs. Georgia Tech.

Michael Chang/Getty Images

Central Florida at East Carolina


OVERALL When Central Florida has the ball When East Carolina has the ball
Category Central Florida

East Carolina

UCF Off ECU Def UCF Def ECU Off
F/+ Rk 57 (1.6%) 62 (1.2%) 71 (-2.3%) 67 (-1.5%) 47 (4.3%) 37 (6.1%)
S&P+ 59 (202.8) 50 (205.6) 66 (98.6) 71 (97.7) 48 (104.3) 38 (107.9)
Play Efficiency

64 (101.8) 109 (89.3) 84 (95.3) 51 (105.9)
Rushing S&P+

83 (95.3) 45 (106.7) 90 (93.2) 45 (110.2)
Passing S&P+

44 (108.9) 116 (81.1) 79 (97.2) 63 (101.6)
Std. Downs S&P+

90 (93.3) 86 (95.0) 88 (94.6) 55 (104.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

21 (129.0) 118 (78.1) 67 (100.1) 41 (113.6)
Drive Efficiency

72 (99.2) 63 (101.1) 50 (106.1) 37 (111.0)

OVERALL When Central Florida has the ball When East Carolina has the ball
Category Central Florida

East Carolina

UCF Off ECU Def UCF Def ECU Off
F/+ Rk 57 (1.6%) 62 (1.2%) 71 (-2.3%) 67 (-1.5%) 47 (4.3%) 37 (6.1%)
FEI Rk 61 (.004) 48 (.040) 71 (-.101) 67 (.032) 42 (-.208) 36 (.245)
Field Position 58 (.503) 45 (.509)



Raw Efficiency 29 (.093) 27 (.102) 95 (-.213) 61 (-.062) 2 (-.639) 16 (.437)
First Down rate

53 (.683) 22 (.592) 5 (.516) 3 (.800)
Available Yards rate

78 (.433) 48 (.427) 5 (.312) 9 (.584)
Explosive Drives

104 (.092) 32 (.100) 2 (.048) 36 (.167)
Methodical Drives

90 (.117) 74 (.150) 46 (.129) 11 (.192)
Value Drives

83 (.347) 38 (.336) 8 (.262) 12 (.509)
Special Team rank 77 (-.262) 118 (-1.966)



Field Goal efficiency 93 (-.233) 112 (-.423)



Punt Return efficiency 117 (-.263) 49 (-.037)



Kickoff return efficiency 4 (.140) 128 (-.378)



punt efficiency 92 (-.001) 84 (-.036)



kickoff efficiency 74 (-.129) 82 (-.107)



I know absolutely nothing about either of these teams. Just FYI. :)

S+P sees this as a slight advantage to ECU, especially on offense, and especially especially in the running game. UCF does have a big advantage passing the ball - almost 20 points. In general this should be a good offensive game. From FEI ECU should win - their defense is right there with UCF and ECU has a good advantage. ECU is one of the worst in special teams anywhere, and is especially bad on kickoffs; if Central Florida pulls it out I'd bet it's because they got a bunch of kick returns.


Iowa State at TCU


OVERALL When Iowa State has the ball When TCU has the ball
Category Iowa State

TCU

ISU Off TCU Def ISU Def TCU Off
F/+ Rk 87 (-9.8%) 4 (30.5%) 54 (1.1%) 7 (15.3%) 112 (-10.8%) 15 (11.4%)
S&P+ 108 (178.2) 9 (243.5) 84 (94.9) 8 (123.2) 119 (83.3) 11 (120.3)
Play Efficiency

53 (105.4) 20 (119.1) 114 (85.8) 19 (123.0)
Rushing S&P+

43 (110.9) 8 (131.3) 125 (75.0) 6 (136.0)
Passing S&P+

60 (102.3) 41 (109.8) 78 (97.4) 35 (115.4)
Std. Downs S&P+

65 (102.6) 20 (117.2) 119 (83.5) 24 (119.8)
Pass. Downs S&P+

45 (110.2) 34 (117.8) 71 (98.6) 20 (129.6)
Drive Efficiency

100 (90.5) 6 (143.0) 115 (84.0) 10 (130.0)

OVERALL When Iowa State has the ball When TCU has the ball
Category Iowa State

TCU

ISU Off TCU Def ISU Def TCU Off
F/+ Rk 87 (-9.8%) 4 (30.5%) 54 (1.1%) 7 (15.3%) 112 (-10.8%) 15 (11.4%)
FEI Rk 83 (-.071) 7 (.234) 45 (.151) 6 (-.567) 106 (.361) 20 (.369)
Field Position 63 (.499) 4 (.571)



Raw Efficiency 110 (-.143) 9 (.203) 62 (.019) 9 (-.444) 125 (.577) 33 (.234)
First Down rate

88 (.642) 7 (.537) 114 (.750) 20 (.736)
Available Yards rate

73 (.443) 13 (.354) 119 (.567) 17 (.543)
Explosive Drives

81 (.108) 82 (.147) 99 (.175) 17 (.194)
Methodical Drives

3 (.225) 25 (.103) 124 (.217) 120 (.085)
Value Drives

60 (.398) 22 (.299) 118 (.518) 25 (.466)
Special Team rank 71 (-.100) 7 (2.141)



Field Goal efficiency 52 (.069) 11 (.449)



Punt Return efficiency 51 (-.041) 9 (.129)



Kickoff return efficiency 107 (-.239) 91 (-.197)



punt efficiency 80 (-.052) 40 (-.154)



kickoff efficiency 51 (-.186) 25 (-.227)



It's not likely that TCU is going to lose.  Let's just get that out of the way. TCU's defense is very good and is going against a meh offense that at best might be able to pass the ball a bit, but only a bit. TCU's offense is absurdly good and is going up against one of the worst rushing defenses in the country. FEI sees it as a bit closer, but not really that much closer - ISU might do better offensively. There's really no hope here for chaos. Avoid this game unless you are literally addicted to college football.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma


OVERALL When Oklahoma State has the ball When Oklahoma has the ball
Category Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

OKST Off OU Def OKST Def OU Off
F/+ Rk 75 (-5.8%) 10 (26.1%) 81 (-4.4%) 33 (7.2%) 79 (-4.1%) 7 (15.2%)
S&P+ 75 (193.4) 13 (242.2) 80 (95.3) 19 (116.0) 67 (98.1) 6 (126.1)
Play Efficiency

74 (98.4) 17 (121.2) 55 (103.8) 5 (138.4)
Rushing S&P+

93 (91.6) 11 (129.8) 57 (103.8) 2 (144.3)
Passing S&P+

47 (107.8) 24 (117.2) 59 (103.6) 12 (133.1)
Std. Downs S&P+

80 (96.2) 18 (118.1) 52 (104.0) 3 (135.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

51 (105.7) 18 (126.6) 65 (100.5) 8 (141.8)
Drive Efficiency

75 (98.3) 19 (125.5) 78 (96.7) 8 (130.7)

OVERALL When Oklahoma State has the ball When Oklahoma has the ball
Category Oklahoma State

Oklahoma

OKST Off OU Def OKST Def OU Off
F/+ Rk 75 (-5.8%) 10 (26.1%) 81 (-4.4%) 33 (7.2%) 79 (-4.1%) 7 (15.2%)
FEI Rk 90 (-.099) 19 (.172) 86 (-.178) 44 (-.197) 86 (.194) 12 (.504)
Field Position 79 (.490) 23 (.529)



Raw Efficiency 92 (-.082) 11 (.190) 91 (-.187) 29 (-.249) 93 (.192) 13 (.450)
First Down rate

105 (.603) 17 (.581) 54 (.653) 41 (.698)
Available Yards rate

108 (.376) 20 (.369) 71 (.460) 18 (.542)
Explosive Drives

71 (.119) 33 (.101) 89 (.161) 23 (.190)
Methodical Drives

105 (.103) 60 (.140) 58 (.137) 86 (.119)
Value Drives

110 (.291) 24 (.303) 72 (.396) 14 (.504)
Special Team rank 14 (1.564) 8 (2.116)



Field Goal efficiency 33 (.220) 37 (.190)



Punt Return efficiency 86 (-.155) 20 (.054)



Kickoff return efficiency 8 (.044) 2 (.153)



punt efficiency 47 (-.136) 87 (-.017)



kickoff efficiency 26 (-.227) 64 (-.157)



Not a particularly good rivalry game either. Oklahoma's defense should completely throttle OKST's offense, with 20-30 point advantages across the board. On offense Oklahoma has a 40 point advantage running the ball, which is what they want to do the most. Samaje Perine should have another great game. FEI doesn't see anything particularly different, though both teams are great at special teams. Guess that's something? Oy. The Big-12 not having a championship really hurts watchability this week.

Alabama at Missouri


OVERALL When Alabama has the ball When Missouri has the ball
Category Alabama

Missouri

BAMA Off MIZZ Def BAMA Def MIZZ Off
F/+ Rk 1 (36.4%) 31 (14.0%) 4 (18.6%) 14 (12.3%) 3 (18.8%) 57 (0.6%)
S&P+ 1 (263.3) 38 (212.6) 2 (131.5) 24 (114.0) 2 (131.8) 65 (98.6)
Play Efficiency

4 (138.6) 10 (126.7) 9 (131.6) 68 (100.7)
Rushing S&P+

11 (130.8) 9 (130.7) 1 (154.9) 56 (105.2)
Passing S&P+

4 (150.4) 18 (121.8) 22 (119.8) 70 (99.0)
Std. Downs S&P+

2 (135.3) 17 (118.5) 5 (132.7) 69 (100.6)
Pass. Downs S&P+

10 (140.4) 8 (144.8) 16 (127.8) 57 (104.0)
Drive Efficiency

1 (144.8) 45 (108.3) 1 (151.8) 55 (103.7)

OVERALL When Alabama has the ball When Missouri has the ball
Category Alabama

Missouri

BAMA Off MIZZ Def BAMA Def MIZZ Off
F/+ Rk 1 (36.4%) 31 (14.0%) 4 (18.6%) 14 (12.3%) 3 (18.8%) 57 (0.6%)
FEI Rk 1 (.308) 20 (.170) 6 (.622) 9 (-.529) 4 (-.643) 55 (.066)
Field Position 97 (.483) 74 (.493)



Raw Efficiency 8 (.205) 24 (.106) 9 (.513) 16 (-.377) 7 (-.468) 53 (.084)
First Down rate

40 (.700) 56 (.656) 46 (.637) 82 (.650)
Available Yards rate

15 (.549) 14 (.358) 17 (.367) 71 (.444)
Explosive Drives

29 (.175) 24 (.092) 11 (.073) 59 (.138)
Methodical Drives

55 (.150) 68 (.145) 113 (.185) 14 (.187)
Value Drives

17 (.500) 14 (.274) 7 (.259) 85 (.345)
Special Team rank 92 (-.613) 43 (.586)



Field Goal efficiency 86 (-.190) 39 (.169)



Punt Return efficiency 119 (-.266) 36 (.004)



Kickoff return efficiency 97 (-.207) 16 (-.033)



punt efficiency 8 (-.288) 83 (-.038)



kickoff efficiency 77 (-.120) 100 (-.061)



Well, at least this one is closer than the last two. But not by much. Alabama is the consensus best team by the stats, and Missouri is the second or third best team in the SEC East. If Missouri is going to have a chance it's going to be on defense, where they have one of the best in the nation. And they're still 17 points down when Alabama passes and on standard downs. If they get Alabama into long downs they've got a good shot at stopping them. Don't expect a lot of turnovers though; they're not at all good at drive stops, and Alabama is the best in the nation in converting drives into points. Alabama's defense, meanwhile, should utterly throttle the fairly inept Missou offense, though Missou's got a shot at passing (with only a 20 point deficit). FEI sees the Missou defense and Alabama offense as essentially an even matchup, but again the Alabama defense rolls. Missouri is also better at special teams and has a good shot at good kick returns, but  I don't see this as anything more than an afterthought for Alabama.

Kansas State at Baylor


OVERALL When Kansas State has the ball When Baylor has the ball
Category Kansas State

Baylor

KSU Off BU Def KSU Def BU Off
F/+ Rk 18 (20.0%) 11 (25.7%) 24 (8.5%) 13 (12.3%) 38 (6.8%) 14 (11.7%)
S&P+ 24 (222.5) 8 (244.0) 31 (110.9) 7 (123.7) 30 (111.6) 12 (120.3)
Play Efficiency

37 (114.0) 25 (115.6) 28 (114.4) 21 (121.9)
Rushing S&P+

51 (106.4) 18 (122.8) 19 (122.1) 26 (117.6)
Passing S&P+

28 (120.6) 40 (109.9) 37 (110.3) 14 (127.8)
Std. Downs S&P+

43 (110.0) 32 (111.1) 28 (112.4) 22 (121.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

25 (126.2) 23 (122.8) 27 (120.1) 33 (120.3)
Drive Efficiency

30 (115.0) 3 (147.8) 24 (120.7) 11 (127.0)

OVERALL When Kansas State has the ball When Baylor has the ball
Category Kansas State

Baylor

KSU Off BU Def KSU Def BU Off
F/+ Rk 18 (20.0%) 11 (25.7%) 24 (8.5%) 13 (12.3%) 38 (6.8%) 14 (11.7%)
FEI Rk 25 (.157) 14 (.207) 23 (.340) 21 (-.385) 37 (-.241) 17 (.387)
Field Position 11 (.547) 6 (.558)



Raw Efficiency 12 (.186) 4 (.225) 17 (.428) 27 (-.269) 58 (-.090) 10 (.471)
First Down rate

26 (.724) 8 (.543) 36 (.624) 4 (.794)
Available Yards rate

13 (.555) 15 (.367) 47 (.424) 5 (.592)
Explosive Drives

32 (.173) 97 (.173) 13 (.079) 11 (.206)
Methodical Drives

72 (.133) 10 (.079) 99 (.168) 12 (.191)
Value Drives

10 (.523) 25 (.306) 47 (.347) 11 (.523)
Special Team rank 4 (2.703) 33 (.941)



Field Goal efficiency 65 (.004) 45 (.102)



Punt Return efficiency 2 (.367) 78 (-.127)



Kickoff return efficiency 12 (-.011) 19 (-.043)



punt efficiency 90 (-.006) 18 (-.246)



kickoff efficiency 30 (-.213) 89 (-.092)



Ah, now we're getting to the interesting games. Kansas State isn't as good as Baylor, but at least they're withing spitting distance - and who knows how Baylor will play if Bryce Petty is out. Kansas State's best chance is on passing, where they have a small advantage. They are likely to not be able to run all that effectively though, which may make it too hard for the Wildcats to maintain a good drive. Baylor is also one of the best in the nation at stopping teams. Baylor isn't nearly as impressive as you might think on offense, especially running the ball. Baylor can pass and should be able to pass well, having a 17 point advantage there.

FEI sees this as a bit less even. Kansas State and Baylor are totally even when Kansas State has the ball, but Baylor has a150 point advantage when they've got the ball - and is especially good at longer drives and getting yards no matter what.

Special teams is interesting. A typical Bill Snyder team, Kansas State is excellent at special teams and in particular has a big advantage when Baylor kicks the ball. They're good at punt returns too, one of the best in the nation, but Baylor is pretty good at punt coverage. I don't see that as being enough to get Kansas State the win, but chances are pretty good that it'll be close if Petty can play, and a Kansas State win if he can't.

Wisconsin at Ohio State


OVERALL When Wisconsin has the ball When Ohio State has the ball
Category Wisconsin

Ohio State

UW Off OSU Def UW Def OSU Off
F/+ Rk 13 (24.3%) 3 (31.1%) 16 (11.3%) 15 (12.3%) 11 (13.5%) 5 (17.0%)
S&P+ 12 (242.7) 2 (255.0) 13 (120.3) 10 (122.8) 14 (122.4) 1 (132.2)
Play Efficiency

16 (124.8) 24 (115.9) 22 (117.5) 1 (149.6)
Rushing S&P+

9 (133.4) 56 (104.2) 27 (116.4) 1 (145.2)
Passing S&P+

42 (109.3) 11 (127.1) 23 (118.4) 2 (156.5)
Std. Downs S&P+

9 (129.6) 25 (114.7) 44 (108.2) 1 (136.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

48 (107.6) 40 (113.3) 10 (139.0) 1 (180.7)
Drive Efficiency

13 (125.0) 4 (147.4) 11 (135.4) 6 (133.4)

OVERALL When Wisconsin has the ball When Ohio State has the ball
Category Wisconsin

Ohio State

UW Off OSU Def UW Def OSU Off
F/+ Rk 13 (24.3%) 3 (31.1%) 16 (11.3%) 15 (12.3%) 11 (13.5%) 5 (17.0%)
FEI Rk 15 (.187) 8 (.229) 21 (.364) 18 (-.397) 14 (-.472) 11 (.518)
Field Position 75 (.492) 3 (.572)



Raw Efficiency 5 (.220) 2 (.268) 14 (.443) 24 (-.320) 6 (-.508) 6 (.565)
First Down rate

44 (.694) 12 (.563) 6 (.531) 7 (.773)
Available Yards rate

16 (.543) 7 (.334) 3 (.304) 2 (.636)
Explosive Drives

2 (.315) 27 (.096) 35 (.102) 10 (.219)
Methodical Drives

95 (.113) 17 (.089) 3 (.063) 107 (.102)
Value Drives

21 (.491) 6 (.256) 2 (.186) 3 (.581)
Special Team rank 79 (-.313) 29 (1.008)



Field Goal efficiency 9 (.489) 80 (-.140)



Punt Return efficiency 52 (-.041) 32 (.013)



Kickoff return efficiency 98 (-.207) 92 (-.199)



punt efficiency 117 (.150) 16 (-.247)



kickoff efficiency 56 (-.169) 37 (-.204)



Honestly, who knows? With JT Barrett out, there is no real way to predict much here. Chances are good that OSU's offense will be okay, but probably not great like they had been. The real issue is that Ohio State's run defense is fairly bad and Wisconsin has a 30-point advantage running the ball. OSU is good at getting turnovers, but I'm not sure how successful they'll be. FEI has the two teams very close due to OSU's poor strength of schedule, with OSU having small advantages here and there but nothing major. OSU might get into this game via punt returns - but stopping Melvin Gordon is going to be key, and I don't see how OSU is going to do that while getting enough points on their own.

Florida State at Georgia Tech


OVERALL When Florida State has the ball When Georgia Tech has the ball
Category Florida State

Georgia Tech

FSU Off GT Def FSU Def GT Off
F/+ Rk 8 (26.5%) 12 (25.4%) 6 (15.8%) 52 (2.3%) 19 (9.9%) 2 (20.5%)
S&P+ 16 (234.6) 25 (222.0) 9 (121.0) 62 (98.8) 25 (113.6) 7 (123.2)
Play Efficiency

7 (134.5) 89 (94.4) 58 (103.2) 3 (138.9)
Rushing S&P+

17 (125.9) 99 (90.6) 62 (103.0) 4 (136.6)
Passing S&P+

7 (140.8) 76 (97.6) 61 (101.7) 6 (144.0)
Std. Downs S&P+

6 (131.7) 78 (97.6) 50 (104.7) 5 (132.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

13 (136.7) 107 (87.3) 61 (102.1) 4 (153.0)
Drive Efficiency

16 (123.5) 31 (115.3) 12 (135.2) 23 (118.7)

OVERALL When Florida State has the ball When Georgia Tech has the ball
Category Florida State

Georgia Tech

FSU Off GT Def FSU Def GT Off
F/+ Rk 8 (26.5%) 12 (25.4%) 6 (15.8%) 52 (2.3%) 19 (9.9%) 2 (20.5%)
FEI Rk 6 (.237) 3 (.270) 7 (.617) 48 (-.170) 20 (-.392) 1 (.854)
Field Position 94 (.484) 12 (.546)



Raw Efficiency 21 (.128) 16 (.156) 39 (.154) 78 (.106) 25 (-.304) 7 (.564)
First Down rate

24 (.731) 89 (.704) 52 (.652) 2 (.819)
Available Yards rate

52 (.474) 103 (.524) 45 (.419) 4 (.611)
Explosive Drives

24 (.185) 64 (.130) 65 (.130) 27 (.181)
Methodical Drives

67 (.138) 122 (.213) 37 (.123) 5 (.210)
Value Drives

41 (.419) 110 (.490) 48 (.351) 4 (.551)
Special Team rank 49 (.444) 18 (1.484)



Field Goal efficiency 2 (.731) 96 (-.250)



Punt Return efficiency 97 (-.184) 3 (.186)



Kickoff return efficiency 121 (-.284) 58 (-.136)



punt efficiency 55 (-.122) 38 (-.161)



kickoff efficiency 38 (-.202) 47 (-.191)



I was tempted to do a post just for this one, because it's so interesting. FSU's defense and Oregon's defense are similar in that both rely heavily on disruption and turnovers and will give up yards - but are otherwise pretty meh. Georgia Tech's offense is anything but meh. Their running attack has a 35 point advantage - but their passing attack has a 43 point advantage. They don't pass often, but they do convert a lot of passes. The real problem is that GT's defense isn't particularly good at all, especially against the pass. This could be a major race with odd mistakes causing a 49-42 game to go one side or another.

FEI tells a similar tale, with Georgia Tech actually being ranked ahead of FSU. In particular FEI thinks GT's offense is a bigger advantage over FSU compared to GT's defense, which is just okay. GT doesn't get a lot of explosive plays, but boy are they good at grinding it out.

GT also is better at special teams; while FSU has one of the best kickers in the nation, they're horrible at returning kickoffs and punts. Georgia Tech is very good at returning punts.

This is probably the game to watch. And I think GT can pull the upset.

Fresno State at Boise State


OVERALL When Fresno State has the ball When Boise State has the ball
Category Fresno State

Boise State

FSU Off fBSU Def FSU Def fBSU Off
F/+ Rk 108 (-17.9%) 26 (15.6%) 106 (-8.5%) 27 (8.2%) 106 (-10.0%) 31 (7.3%)
S&P+ 117 (173.3) 21 (229.6) 113 (84.6) 29 (112.0) 110 (88.7) 16 (117.7)
Play Efficiency

111 (86.3) 34 (111.3) 83 (95.7) 10 (130.1)
Rushing S&P+

95 (90.3) 34 (111.3) 64 (101.8) 14 (128.1)
Passing S&P+

110 (84.0) 36 (111.0) 105 (88.1) 11 (133.6)
Std. Downs S&P+

107 (87.7) 51 (104.2) 69 (99.4) 7 (131.0)
Pass. Downs S&P+

107 (86.9) 13 (130.7) 105 (88.8) 28 (124.5)
Drive Efficiency

123 (79.8) 17 (126.8) 125 (79.0) 29 (115.3)

OVERALL When Fresno State has the ball When Boise State has the ball
Category Fresno State

Boise State

FSU Off fBSU Def FSU Def fBSU Off
F/+ Rk 108 (-17.9%) 26 (15.6%) 106 (-8.5%) 27 (8.2%) 106 (-10.0%) 31 (7.3%)
FEI Rk 93 (-.118) 34 (.114) 101 (-.258) 29 (-.317) 109 (.395) 43 (.168)
Field Position 67 (.497) 30 (.520)



Raw Efficiency 95 (-.090) 18 (.146) 83 (-.157) 33 (-.213) 97 (.205) 20 (.406)
First Down rate

109 (.596) 11 (.561) 85 (.699) 23 (.733)
Available Yards rate

89 (.414) 23 (.371) 92 (.504) 14 (.554)
Explosive Drives

74 (.118) 74 (.142) 102 (.184) 19 (.193)
Methodical Drives

66 (.140) 29 (.110) 94 (.162) 50 (.153)
Value Drives

92 (.333) 27 (.312) 99 (.455) 16 (.500)
Special Team rank 52 (.363) 64 (.083)



Field Goal efficiency 81 (-.145) 70 (-.042)



Punt Return efficiency 26 (.031) 61 (-.062)



Kickoff return efficiency 113 (-.258) 109 (-.242)



punt efficiency 81 (-.048) 36 (-.171)



kickoff efficiency 7 (-.305) 57 (-.169)



Boise State should absolutely roll here. Huge advantages on offense and defense no matter which stats method you prefer. Congrats to BSU and their special bowl of specialness.