Duck the Odds: Championship Week is the Best Week

Rusty: 5-9 (Last Week); 79-86-2 (Overall)

Rusty's Hits: Oregon (-20), Washington (-3.5), Georgia Tech (+13), Florida State (+7.5), USC (-7)

Rusty's Misses: Texas (+6.5), Arkansas (-1.5), UCLA (-4.5), Arizona State (Pick), Ohio State (-20), Wisconsin (-13.5), Utah State (+9.5), Auburn (+9.5), Mississippi State (-2),

Sean: 9-5 (Last Week); 92-87-2 (Overall)

Sean's Hits: Oregon (-20), Missouri (+1.5), Minnesota (+13.5), Boise State (-9.5), Washington (-3.5), Georgia Tech (+13), Florida State (+7.5), Mississippi (+2), USC (-7)

Sean's Misses: Texas (+6.5), UCLA (-4.5), Arizona State (Pick), Ohio State (-20), Auburn (+9.5)

This Week's Picks

Marcus Mariota's first Pac-12 title game.

Alabama playing Mizzou in a matchup that no one really can make sense of.

Bill Snyder's Wildcats roll to Waco to try to spoil the party just like the Bears did to Collin Klein's Heisman chances in 2012.

A clearly drunk Florida State Frogger'ing across a busy street towards a Ramblin' Wreck.

Melvin Gordon attempts to do what no other college football player ever has: levitate while getting the edge.

Super. Amped. Let's do this, folks. College Football Playoff or bust.

Home Teams in CAPS

Sean Says: Oregon (-14.5) over Arizona (Neutral Site)

I'd like to quote Kevin McAllister: "HEY! I'M NOT AFRAID ANYMORE!"

Analysis be damned. Let's crush these guys.

Marcus Mariota is a robot sent from the future to redefine quarterbacking. Royce Freeman is his battering ram.

Scooby Wright III can caw and tweet all he wants about being under-recruited. So was one Marcus Mariota, and he's about to put up 48 points on you.

Rusty Says: Arizona (+14.5) over Oregon (Neutral Site)

This line is high only because Oregon is basically a public team by this point and they have a long history of covering some ridiculous point spreads.  Don’t be fooled.  There are no blowouts to be found here.

If I have to go through an offseason hearing about an Arizona problem it could be one of the longest offseasons ever.

Will Oregon be able to stop Arizona on third down?  Will Anu Solomon be limited while he deals with injuries?  Does Oregon actually have an Arizona problem?

I think Oregon will win but it will be close.

Sean Says: Kansas State (+9) over BAYLOR

K-State is about ready to ruin someone's party. They're better than the drubbing by TCU shows. And I think TCU is objectively a better team than Baylor. Bryce Petty's status questionable, and Baylor's defense is thoroughly questionable after having a tough, tough time with Texas Tech.

Betting on Bill Snyder, as I usually do. K-State is 8-3 against the spread this year and I see that trend continuing. Wildcats keep it close.

Rusty Says: BAYLOR (-9) over Kansas State

Normally I would pick Kansas State against a great offensive team by virtue of their coach Snyder and his pedigree of winning games against better teams, at least on paper.

Baylor is a team on a mission.  They’ve hired a PR firm to get them in the top four and the team knows how important style points are this week.  What gives me pause in selecting Baylor is that the Wildcats almost beat Auburn earlier this season.

This game will really be the game of the week with College Gameday in attendance.

Sean Says: OKLAHOMA (-20) over Oklahoma State

If this line were at 21, I'd take the Cowboys because this is a rivalry game. However, OSU has been getting the bejeesus beat out of them. And Oklahoma, despite having a "disappointing" season, have still done some really nice things. I think the Sooners blow out the Pokes at home here. Oklahoma State just does not have enough talent in the tank to keep up.

Rusty Says: OKLAHOMA (-20) over Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State has yet to beat a quality team.  In fact, in most of their games against top teams they’ve gotten blown out.  They’re sliding with 5 straight losses.

Oklahoma though once again fooled the country into thinking that they were a top team.  As tradition goes, they have to finish the regular season on a strong note in order to keep the hype real.

Sean Says: Louisiana Tech (+12.5) over MARSHALL

Louisiana Tech scored 76 points last week. Seventy. Six. This will be a zero-defense shootout that will make good-ole-boy football traditionalists seethe. Can't trust either defense = take the points. And I think Tech pulls off the upset.

Rusty Says: Louisiana Tech (+12.5) over MARSHALL

Marshall blew it last week against Western Kentucky in overtime.  Western Kentucky of all teams!  Defenses were not in attendance for that game.

Louisiana Tech is fairly one-dimensional geared towards passing the rock and while they have an excellent offense they can struggle on defense.

This will be a shootout so I’m taking the points while expecting Marshall to win.

Sean Says: Missouri (+14.5) over Alabama (Neutral Site)

Alabama doesn't play well away from home.  Missouri's defense is better than people think. And their defensive coordinator has the chops to fight it out with Lane Kiffin. Alabama's worth is inflated because of their drubbing of Auburn, but I think Auburn's defense is terrible. Like, would be in the bottom half of the Pac-12.

Mizzou's defense matched up well with the enormous, physical Arkansas offense and has played well against spread teams too (except Indiana, in what is the most "Too Many Cooks" moment of 2014).

Give me the Tigers to muck up the game and keep it at least within 10 points.

Rusty Says: Alabama (-14.5) over Missouri (Neutral Site)

Not to get all Catcher in the Rye but I think Missouri is a phony.  They lost to Indiana and got shutout by Georgia while scraping by South Carolina.

Alabama is really hitting its stride.  After scoring 55 on Auburn and limiting some great offenses in the middle of the season I think we’ve got a blowout in store.  Missouri is built for speed and will struggle with the size of the Tide.

Sean Says: Georgia Tech (+4) over Florida State (Neutral Site)

Florida State is 2-9 against the spread. Yellow Jackets either win or lose 23-20.

Rusty Says: Florida State (-4) over Georgia Tech (Neutral Site)

This line is tough because you know Florida State is going to win but you know it’s going to be a close one.  I see Georgia Tech not settling for field goals and really going all-out to win this game.

I don’t know how Jameis Winston is able to focus with all the stuff that is going on off the field.  With Nick O’Leary he’s always got a security blanket and with kicker Roberto Aguayo the Seminoles will always come away with points in the red zone.

Sean Says: Wisconsin (-4) over Ohio State (Neutral Site)

An inexperienced quarterback facing an athletic and pressure-heavy defense with an ironclad rushing offense on the other sideline? That's not a matchup I have confidence in.

Ohio State will have to convert 3rd and 7s to win this game. With an unproven signal caller, the odds of doing that are not good. Ohio State's defense is objectively worse than Wisconsin's, and MelGor makes an offense that lacks QB talent into an explosive unit. Yeah, I said explosive unit.

Badgers win by 6.

Rusty Says: Ohio State (+4) over Wisconsin (Neutral Site)

The Buckeyes may be without their starting quarterback but this is still a dominant team.  Their defense is solid and they have tons of talent.   Besides, it’s not like they pulled their new quarterback straight out of biology class, he was a top QB in high school.

Melvin Gordon is going to go off in this game.  I can just feel it. It won’t be enough to win the Heisman, nor will it be enough to top an Ohio State squad that will be good on offense, very good on defense, and have a gameplan maximized to handle the team as it currently is.

Sean Says: BOISE STATE (-20.5) over Fresno State

Boise State beat Fresno 37-27 on October 17 on the smurf turf. I think they more than double that margin and blow these dudes out.

I wrote this last week, and I'll write it again (adding another number): Since an uncharacteristic loss to Air Force, Boise State has scored 51, 37, 55, 60, 38, 63, 50 points in consecutive weeks. They are a better team than they were in October, and will have a ravenous home crowd at their backs. Broncos score a crushing victory in the Mountain West Championship Game.

Rusty Says: Fresno State (+20.5) over BOISE STATE

The Broncos are great on offense.  They’re so well balanced throwing and rushing.  Jay Ajayi is a monster coming out of the backfield.

These teams have already played though and Fresno State only lost on the Blue Turf.  They go back to the Smurf Turf for the championship game.  While Fresno State has not played fantastic the last few weeks they’ll bring their A-game for the championship game.

I like Boise State to win but in a close one.