Duck the Odds: Week 1, Co-Authored by Rusty Ryan

Folks, Duck the Odds returns with a new wrinkle: ATQ's own Rusty Ryan joins the - show? I guess? - to make his side-by-side picks with/slash/against my own.  Who will win this contest of armchair quarterbacking and acting like we know stuff? Well, no one really wins in a contest like this. But if we are going by percentage of picks, I'll probably go with Rusty. I have Irish Luck.

But I digress! Week 1 offers up a tasty platter of games that whets your (and our) offseason-long appetite for college football. Let's get to the picks.

Sean: OREGON -51 over South Dakota: Um, what? No one bet this game. Please. It's mean. But realistically, yeah, it'll be like 66-10. Ouch.

Rusty: OREGON (-51) over South Dakota

This game should be over by the first quarter.  What I’m looking for out of this game is some old-fashioned dominance.  I want to see perfection and Ayele Forde taking the first carry of the second half.

If you can find a place that will take a first half bet then that’s the best way to go if you’re going to bet this game at all.  By the time the second half comes around almost everyone on the two-deep will be sipping Gatorade on the bench.  However, if you can finish your bet at the end of the first half when the Ducks are still executing their game plan and not deferring to their bread and butter fundamental plays then you are probably golden.

S: Navy +16.5 over Ohio State (at Baltimore): Oh man. This is a dangerous game for a vulnerable OSU squad. Lots of good Buckeye players, but the loss of Braxton Miller has to sting, and they're on the road facing a small but disciplined Navy squad with a magician at QB: Keenan Reynolds. OSU will score, but probably not a ton through the air, and I think Navy will be able to at least keep it tight.

R: Navy (+16.5) over Ohio State

Last time the Midshipmen took on the Buckeyes it was 2009 in the Horseshoe.  I remember Navy passing in an attempt to tie the game on a 2-point conversion instead of doing what they do best: run the damn football.

Ohio State has the benefit of preparation time.  By opening with a triple-option team the Buckeyes have given themselves plenty of time to find the nuances and ready themselves for the unique blocking present in Navy’s attack.  The strategies used by triple-option teams can be incredibly difficult to learn but in a little more than a week it is entirely manageable.

Urban Meyer has had success with almost anyone running the quarterback position.  Even with the loss of Heisman hopeful Braxton Miller I don’t think we’ll see a big enough drop off in performance at the quarterback position to warrant an upset alert for Brutus.  However, Navy was the 8^th most efficient team on offense last season and they’ll wear down the Buckeye defense while running down the clock.  The lack of negative plays and red zone efficiency will keep this game close but won’t be enough for Navy to win, but it will be enough for the cover.

S: HAWAII +17 over Washington: Traveling to Hawaii is always weird. Especially in Week 1. With a new coach. And a new backup QB. Despite going 1-11 last season, Hawaii scored some points, had bad luck on turnovers (-10), and lost a lot of close games. Not saying Hawaii can win, but Washington is starting some dude named Jeff Lindquist at QB (Is he a CPA? No one knows.) on the road with a new coach.  I don't love this line, but am un-confidently taking all the points and betting on weirdness and a shaky opener for Coach Pete.

R: HAWAI’I (+17) over Washington

The islands of Hawai’l welcome us to the nightcap of the opening college football weekend.  Chris Petersen makes his debut as the Husky head coach without assumed starting quarterback Cyler Miles for this game.

Last year the Rainbow Warriors were pretty bad.  They finished the year with only one win, which was over Army in the season finale.  All hope is not lost on the Warriors as they’re adjusted W-L record per Bill C. was 4-8.  With seven starters coming back on offense, most of the offensive line on the two-deep, and six defensive starters coming back, Hawai’I is going to be noticeably better and more competitive.

Washington has seven starters back on offense and defense.  Even though they are staying with a pro system there is still an adjustment period in terms of learning terminology.  Both lines are veteran groups and will get off to a great start.  I just think 17 points is a lot to overcome in this scenario.

S: VIRGINIA +21 over Ucla: Very hyped, hip sexy pick for Pac-12 champ and inaugural playoff contender? On the road? Across 3 timezones? Against an experienced team (17 starters back)? What could go wrong? Don't mistake me here, I think UCLA should win, and win easily. But if I have to choose, I'll take all those points. UVA is still stinging (and embarrassed) at the smack-down that the Ducks laid on them in national TV last year. You don't think they're taking this as an opportunity to fix that image?  I think UCLA wins, but that's a lot of points to lay. Not crazy about this line, but I'll take the home dog here.

R: Ucla (-21) over VIRGINIA

UCLA is so hot right now… UCLA.  The entire city of Bristol is blasting a mash-up of "Jockin Jay-Z" with the words changed to "Jockin’ Hundley."  With reigning PAC-12 Offensive and Defensive FOTY Myles Jack back at linebacker there’s really no telling how high the hyperbole can go.  And believe me, I know hyperbole.

With nine starters back on offense and eight back on defensive this team is surging in the power rankings and have found their way to many expert’s playoff bracket.  There’s a lot of pressure on the Bruins and a lot to prove in this first game against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Virginia Head Coach Mike London is on the hot seat after last year’s disappointing 2-10 finish.  The last time Virginia really warranted any time on my television screen was when they were getting romped by Oregon to the tune of 59-10.

The lone bright spot on the Wahoo defense is that they were 10^th in the country last year in adjusted success rate on defense, meaning that they keep teams in long downs.  The offense really struggled last year and even with seventeen starters back it’s not going to be enough to keep up with the Bruins.

S: Lsu -5 over Wisconsin (at Houston): LSU always plays great at the beginning of the year and then fades down the stretch.  Wisconsin always takes some time to heat up. I think Wisconsin is going to have a huge year in the B1G West. But LSU is probably a TD better, mostly because of their speed advantage, in what is basically a home game.

R: Lsu (-5) over Wisconsin

The biggest reason why I’m tuning into this game is because we are seeing two great teams play each other on the first college football Saturday.  The second reason why I’m turning in is to see true freshman running back Leonard Fournette line up in the backfield for the LSU Tigers.

Fournette has garnered comparisons to Adrian Peterson and his high school highlight tape parallels that of Reggie Bush and Joe McKnight.

Gary Andersen led the Badgers to nine wins in his first year as head coach.  The offense will be taken care of as that unit is Andersen’s specialty that he brought from Utah State.  With only three returning starters on defense coming back there are a lot of issues when facing an LSU team that mass-produces buffet busters and huge running backs.

The matchup to really watch is how Wisconsin fairs against the LSU defense.  The Bayou Bengals have some of the most athletic and rugged defenses in college football and it’s a philosophical collision when the Badgers have the ball.

S: Fresno State +22 over USC: Um, OK. I had a thoughtful response written out, and then this Josh Shaw George Costanza story comes out.  Can't help the psyche of a team eager to prove itself. But I digress. In actual analysis, USC's last game: crushing Fresno State 45-20 in the Las Vegas Bowl, when FSU had their superstar QB Carr. Now the Bulldogs return only 5 offensive starters and run into a Week 1 buzzsaw with NFL talent at RB, OL, WR, DL, LB, and S. I think USC cruises. But 22 is a lot to lay. I think USC wins comfortably and subs out their starters early because they are so shallow to keep it from becoming a laugher.

R: Fresno State (+22) over USC

I think the media overreaction to Josh Shaw’s lie about spraining his ankles while saving his nephew from drowning is directly proportionate to how quickly they bought the story without doing any double-checking whatsoever resulting in a lot of hero praising.

But I digress.

USC is off their sanctions and still maintain more NFL quality players than the Oakland Raiders.  Their starting 22 players can play with anybody.  The question is the same this year as it has been since the sanctions were handed down.  Will USC be able to stay healthy enough and be able to maximize their backups strengths while hiding their weaknesses?

The Trojans have become a dark horse in recent weeks to win the South and possibly make a run at the playoffs but "seven-win" Steve Sarkisian has got a lot to prove.  The offensive line and defensive lines are works in progress but the Trojans have talent at the skill positions to make up for it.  The stars on the line just need some time to gel to be dominant, but they won’t get that time before facing Fresno State.

Fresno State has eight starters back on defense and five starters back on offense, three of which are on the offensive line.  They have to replace NFL Draft pick Derek Carr who threw for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns last year.  Josh Quezada is back running the rock and he’s looking to break the 1,000-yard rushing mark.

S: Cal +11.5 over NORTHWESTERN: I do not think that Cal will win this game in any way, but this is a TTPIASO game. Take those points and root for a garbage time TD by Cal to cover.

R: Cal (+11.5) over NORTHWESTERN

Cal was absolutely atrocious last year.  Their play in the rain at Autzen Stadium had me laughing harder than  I can remember at a college football game.  In the Bears’ defense, they were crossing over to a new system and quarterback Jared Goff was a true freshman playing in a tough league.  Given that, Cal almost beat Northwestern last year succumbing late 44-30.

Northwestern had a rough off-season and I personally have them trending down.  They had to deal with the unionization issue that is in the best interest of the players but the institution and NCAA openly discouraged its formation.  Their best skill player and running back, Venric Mark, transferred just a few weeks ago, to West Texas A&M.

The Wildcats team went downhill after College Gameday made their first appearance in time to see Ohio State rush their way to a win and the first loss for Northwestern in a 7-game losing streak.  The defense wasn’t very good, but the offense was the weakness in the second half of the season.

There’s no way Cal can be as bad as they were last year.  Northwestern is probably a little down from last year.  I like Cal to cover and win this game.

S: Clemson +8 over GEORGIA: Clemson has been recruiting well, and has a great DL. I think they'll match up well against Georgia's excellent running game. Lots of speed on the perimeter on defense, too, which should give the new Georgia QB some trouble getting started.  Although Clemson loses a lot of its offensive skill, they've got some swagger after beating down Ohio State in the Orange Bowl, and won't be afraid to play big, bad SEC Georgia. I think the Bulldogs win, but take the points.

R: GEORGIA (-8) over Clemson

The Georgia Bulldogs are the safe pick to make when choosing a SEC-East Champion.  With eight starters back on defense and six back on offense this team is set to reload.  With Todd Gurley back running the football it’ll take a lot of pressure off the quarterback replacing Aaron Murray, brother to the winner of the latest "Bachelorette" season.

Clemson has seven defenders and five offensive starters back from last year’s 11-win team that beat Ohio State in the Orange Bowl.   They lose quarterback Tajh Boyd, star receiver Sammy Watkins, and leading rusher Roderick McDowell.

Both Tiger lines are solid coming into this season but the loss of star power creates a lack of identity on offense.  Last year when the Tigers beat Georgia 38-35, explosive plays made by the skill players made the difference.

This will be the most exciting game of the weekend.  Stars for both teams will appear and playoff hopes for one team will be pretty much gone after this game.  With the game between the hedges I like the Bulldogs to win and cover.

S: Florida State -19 over Oklahoma State (at JerryWorld): Analysis analysis analysis only 8 starters back on Okie State analysis analysis.  I'll take Florida State minus-anything until they prove to me otherwise.