This is very hard for me to write.
4 years ago I came to Addicted to Quack to share some of my love of Oregon football and my love of math. Sadly, today is the day that much of my love has been shown to be as fickle and unsupported as Chip Kelly's time at Oregon.
After three long months of in-depth analysis, fact checking and research I and others at Addicted to Quack have discovered that the popular statistical models FEI and S+P are completely fraudulent, making them only slightly more reliable than Billingsley. And today, this has been confirmed by the authors of those statistical models. This has the potential to affect nearly dozens of people around the world.
In an interview with Bill I was determined to get some closure on this painful subject.
Exclusive interview with Bill Connelly
AtQ: So, Bill. Bill. BILL. Bill.
BillC: do you...have a question? My private jet is taking off in a few minutes to the Maldives.
AtQ: Bill...we know. We know everything. We know how you made it up.
BillC: Let's just entertain the thought that you actually know something. Humor me. Walk me through it. It'll give me something to laugh about while I sip Chateau Lafite.
AtQ: Okay, well...after last year's 39-point blowout of Florida State I had my suspicions. There was no possibility that S+P was that close to being right about a team like FSU. After all, everyone knows that recruiting is the most important thing, ever. Why would S+P predict that FSU would lose by so much? So I went digging a bit.
BillC (audibly nervous): Uh...okay. And, um, sure. What did you find? Nothing, right?
AtQ: I wish. I found that there was a strong correlation between negative articles about Florida State from you and spikes in traffic at Football Study Hall and FootballOutsiders. The more negative you were about FSU, the bigger your revenue got. Toward the end of the season the traffic spike on Football Study Hall was akin to the amount of traffic Google gets when people search for facebook on google.
BillC (audible gulp): Well...that's just a correlation! That's clearly because if you say anything bad against Tomahawk Nation they'll come to your site! Heck, if you DON'T say anything about them they'll come to your site and complain about that! That proves nothing!
AtQ: You're right, Bill, that by itself doesn't prove anything. What did prove it was two things. First, I took a stats class at community college this last year. It taught me how to run a simple relative standard deviation test and a confidence test on the FSU results. They both indicated that given any stats you care to measure - swagger, want-it-more, ability to throw into tight windows - FSU was clearly going to be a top team. Statistically your results were off the charts. They didn't make sense. But that wasn't the lynchpin.
The lynchpin was this.
AtQ: We found this at your third home in the Hamptons, Bill. It was shortly after you took down the picture of Jameis Winston at publix that you were aiming at. We ran a correlation of the S&P results to the dartboard holes, and they match up perfectly.
BillC: Oh no. Oh no. Oh no.
AtQ: we just want to know...why? Why would you mislead so many people? Was it just the money?
BillC: no...I mean, sure, the money helped. That traffic was amazing. Do you have any idea how much money boner pillz ad revenue is on Addicted to Quack alone? That was good, but Florida State fans were so much better. They comprise every other person on the internet. But that wasn't it.
AtQ: what was it then?
BillC: Tomahawk Nation almost figured it out last year, but fortunately I got lucky with FSU kind of looking like shit. You see...it's true. I hate Florida State. I have a massive bias against them. Ever since Jenn Sterger and Bobby Bowden turned me down for the prom I've hated them. I wanted to make them pay. I wanted to troll the everloving shit out of them.
AtQ: Wait...this was just some convoluted act of revenge?
BillC: JUST? JUST? It took me years to figure out how to do it. Years to establish my bona fides as one of the top celebrities in advanced statistical analysis for college football. YEARS! I had to encourage math idiots like you to encourage my work despite knowing it was complete overfitted trash! And FSU kept winning! They had stopped losing to the likes of Wake Forest despite having 5* recruits! But last year I got lucky. They had a rash of injuries - and thankfully injuries are an easy thing to fanwave away when stats don't line up.
AtQ: yeah, we did that too with Oregon. Wait - are you saying that was wrong too? That Jake Fisher returning didn't help?
BillC: oh, it helped - but not as much as me stopping hypnotising the rest of the Oregon like into thinking that they were matadors and the opposing linemen were bulls.
AtQ: okay, that's disturbing and yet impressive. So it's really official then: you hate FSU.
BillC: I hate them sooooo much.
AtQ: Thanks, Bill. I appreciate the time. Talk to you at the start of the season!
BillC: Yep! I'll send you a postcard from my underwater hotel.
Exclusive interview with Brian Fremeau
Brian was much harder to get a hold of. He's known as a mathematical genius and recluse at the best of times. But the math still didn't make sense. After all, by FEI standards Oregon won the national championship last year handily, giving Oregon as much of a national championship as at least one of Washington's claimed titles. I was able to find him on a secret IRC channel. Here is the unedited conversation.
[00:20:15] *** br14n_ fr3m34u has joined #FO_SEKRIT_NOFBI
[00:20:34] br14n_ fr3m34u> sUp n00b
why did you make up FEI?[00:20:41] br14n_ fr3m34u> mad cash money yo
[00:20:42] br14n_ fr3m34u> Vegas baby
[00:20:48] br14n_ fr3m34u> gotta make it rain n00b
so ad revenue?[00:20:55] br14n_ fr3m34u> lol wut
[00:21:08] br14n_ fr3m34u> betting dumbass
[00:21:27] br14n_ fr3m34u> get sUcka$ to bet using FEI lines
[00:21:35] br14n_ fr3m34u> move da lines
[00:21:43] br14n_ fr3m34u> bet other way
how much money did you make?[00:21:56] br14n_ fr3m34u>...
[00:22:36] * Kalonj slaps br14n_ fr3m34u [00:22:37]
GIVE ME THE TRUTH![00:22:45] br14n_ fr3m34u> shit n00b
[00:22:46] br14n_ fr3m34u> wanna say, like, $152,392,370.61 last year
[00:22:50] br14n_ fr3m34u> but I was tripping balls so might be off by like a buck lol
[00:22:56] br14n_ fr3m34u> people so dumb
[00:22:57] KalonJ> How did you do it?
[00:23:01] br14n_ fr3m34u> n00b
[00:23:25] br14n_ fr3m34u> no one knows how FEI works
[00:24:05] br14n_ fr3m34u> stands for Fremeau Excellent Income
[00:24:37] br14n_ fr3m34u> took my stats from baseball from 1985
[00:24:51] br14n_ fr3m34u> changed the names every year
[00:24:59] br14n_ fr3m34u> still haven't caught on
[00:25:31] KalonJ> Was any of it accurate? Ever?
[00:25:40] br14n_ fr3m34u> yeah
[00:25:43] br14n_ fr3m34u> dunno why but
[00:25:48] br14n_ fr3m34u> FEI was always 100% right on UWash sucking so bad lol
[00:25:55] br14n_ fr3m34u> It was like the universe saying no matter what the Huskies would suck lol
[00:26:03] br14n_ fr3m34u> Fuck mom's home gtg n00b
[00:26:08] *** br14n_ fr3m34u has quit IRC
In light of this news, Addicted to Quack will have no choice but to discontinue the strong statistical analysis that it has done for years. Other SBnation sites were equally impacted. Roll Bama Roll's SaxonRBR was devastated, saying that his article counted as an advanced statistical class for many of t he football players at Alabama - and now they might fall short of graduation in 7 years.
My articles will continue, of course, as I've been making it up the whole time anyway.