FanPost

Seedings Update

So, time for a seedings update, I guess. The committee released interim seedings before the games of the 11th of February. This is a look at how the teams they seeded have done since then, and a guess as to where they would be seeded today, as well as a look ahead at some of the key games left before conference tourneys.

How Have They Done Since Then?

UP #1 Villanova. Comfortable road wins at Xavier, DePaul, and Seton Hall. Two of the three are probably tournament teams.
UP #2 Kansas. Close wins at Texas Tech, home over WVU (#14, below), and at Baylor (#3). All very close games, but over good teams.
DOWN #3 Baylor. Nice home win over a decent TCU team, but lost at Texas Tech, then close home loss to #2 Kansas. 4 losses in the last 6 games.
UP #4 Gonzaga. Nice win at a very good St Mary's team, blowouts over bad San Francisco and Pacific teams.
UP #5 North Carolina. Blowout at NCSU, and home blowout of formerly #10 UVA who is dropping badly.
DOWN #6 Florida State. Not sure why the committee liked these guys so much. Two double-digit road losses at decent but not great teams (Notre Dame, Pitt).
UP #7 Louisville. Won three close games, at home vs Miami and VaTech, in OT at Syracuse. All good or at least decent teams.
UP #8 Oregon. A double digit win at USC (a tournament team), then two home blowouts of pretty decent teams.
UP #9 Arizona. Close home win against a good Cal team, then wins on their northern road trip.
DOWN #10 Virginia. Dropping, three straight losses. Lost at a pretty good VA Tech team, by double-digits at home to #16 Duke, and hammered on the road at #5 UNC.
UP #11 Florida. Three wins against mediocre to decent teams. Only the last was close. Lost a key player to season-ending injury.
UP #12 Kentucky. Three wins against mediocre to decent teams. Only the last was close. Didn't lose a key player to season-ending injury.
DOWN #13 Butler. Lost at a decent Providence team, won at home vs a bad team.
NEUTRAL #14 WVU. Nice blowout of KSU, lost a close one at #2 Kansas, narrow escape in double-OT at home against TTU.
UP #15 UCLA. Two home blowouts, one against a very bad OSU team and one against a good USC team.
UP #16 Duke. Close home win against a decent Clemson team, double-digit win at #10 UVA, close home win against a decent Wake Forest team. 7 wins in a row.

The Jscot Guess

This is not a projection of where I think teams will end up. It's simply my guess as to where I think the committee would rank teams today, based on their prior rankings, and results since then.

  1. Villanova. No reason to move them down.
  2. Kansas. They could have easily lost all three games, but those games were supposed to be tough, and you get credit for wins. You aren't left thinking this team is invulnerable, but they easily deserve to be one of the #1 seeds at this point, and I don't see that changing.
  3. Gonzaga. They got what they needed, a road win against a good team, and did it comfortably.
  4. UNC. Barely ahead of Louisville, who has also played well, but the home blowout of UVA was impressive.
  5. Louisville. Like Kansas, three close games, but all against good teams.
  6. Oregon. This team has been looking very impressive. The three wins since the committee gave us their seedings have been excellent outings against pretty good teams. This ranking may be too low.
  7. Baylor. I'm shooting in the dark as to where to put them. The committee might have them as high as six, or as low as eight. They are still #3 in RPI, and there is no shame in losing to Kansas, but it was a home game, they lost at TTU, and they've lost four of six. I think they now have to win out (including their conference tourney) to get a #1 seed.
  8. Arizona. The Washington schools aren't strong, but they handled them reasonably well given their injuries. If they get healthy, they are a clear #2 seed, and if they win out they could get a #1 seed. To me, there's a clear break between #8 and #9 at this point.
  9. Kentucky. They aren't looking awesome, but they are winning. I'd have Florida ahead of them if not for the injury to Egbunu.
  10. UCLA. Dominating win over USC, and our level of play has made their win over us look even better than it did at the time.
  11. Duke. They look like they are putting it together, and I think the committee would give them credit for their recent run of wins if they were seeding them today.
  12. Florida. As I said, I'd have them at #9 still if they were healthy.
  13. WVU. You can't hold the close loss at Kansas against them, but they weren't impressive at home against TTU. So they hold about where they were.
  14. Florida State. Sorry, I'm not a believer. Their RPI is still reasonably good and the committee had them at #6 before so I'll keep them here for now.
After this, maybe Purdue, maybe Butler, maybe Virginia. Maryland? I don't know.

Coming Games Between These Teams

This Week:

Wednesday

Butler @ Villanova

Louisville @ UNC (the winner of this game may move into the #3 overall seed, the loser may drop a spot or two but not far).

Saturday

UCLA @ Arizona

Florida @ Kentucky

Next Week

Monday

WVU @ Baylor

UNC @ Virginia

Tuesday

FSU @ Duke

Saturday

Duke @ UNC

There are some other tough road games some of these teams have to play (like Oregon @ Cal, for instance). The listed games are those where two teams in the running for a high seed play each other.


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