FanPost

Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such Wazzu 2018

Oct 13, 2018; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal motions to an injured player during the second half against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks won in overtime 30-27. - Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

So Happy we won, and it made the rest of my weekend / early week better. Uw was a tough opponent and their defense did better in pass protection than I thought they would. While we moved the ball better than most thought we would. I am glad I called the special teams being key to the game. I was 15 points too high in my prediction for Oregon's output for points, but in the end the win is what is most important. Except in the eyes of S&P+ the computer seemingly felt we got super lucky to win the game. our overall rating this week is the same as last week, our offense moved up a little and our defense went down a little. Uw some how went up in overall rankings. not sure how to explain it other than S&P pretty much cannot explain our team right now. More on that later.

The weather down here in this part of Texas has reminded me of home. it has been in the 40's-50's and wet. everyone has been looking at me crazy wearing shorts and sandals. I just tell them this is nice weather where I grew up. it reminded me of those old Henry Weinhard's commercials.

Still no sleep, but this week was better. this weekend should be nice, there is an F1 race in Austin and I will be taking my oldest to go see the cars race. She has loved going to the races so far. She really likes watching the motorcycles when they come to town. So between Ducks football and motorsports she never stood a chance. After the races we always stop in a little town in the middle of no where named Lockhart. The BBQ there is phenomenal and I always leave feeling like I may explode. My personal fav BBQ joint is Kruez Market, pronounced "Kritz" with a hard I.

IMG_1585.0.jpeg

mmm meat

They slice the meat at the table in the center then serve it to you on butcher paper, no plates. The first time I went to this place their brisket was one of the best foods I had ever tried in my life. my wife and I had gone on a bit of a BBQ run that day and had tried out 3 different places. Kreuz was both of our favorite so when ever we can find a reason to run by we always do. we always get Brisket, then we normally get ham or turkey depending on how we feel that day. my wife always has to get their german potatoes. she loves them so much and it was one of the few food cravings she had while pregnant.

now that I am hungry.

ON TO THE STATS!!!

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

Ducks & Cougs 2018 S&P+ Stats

Oregon S&P Overall Wazzu S&P Overall
S&P+ Rk: 34 S&P+ Rk: 29
Off. S&P+ Rk: 12 Off. S&P+ Rk: 13
Def. S&P+ Rk: 91 Def. S&P+ Rk: 74
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 77 Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 60
Résumé S&P+ Rk: 33 Résumé S&P+ Rk: 24
Strength of Schedule Rk: 71 Strength of Schedule Rk: 98

Last week Uw was pretty heavily favored and we had to dig pretty deep to find where Oregon could succeed. This week the Cougs are much closer in rankings overall and have advantages in defense and special teams but our offense rankings are a wash. So we played and beat a better team last week and we got no bump in our ratings. love it!!! currently S&P+ sees Wazzu winning by 3.1 pts at home. we were over a 6 point underdog to the dawgs last week.

Duck Factors
Coug Factors
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 48.60% 15 40.70% 68 EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 47.40% 25 39.70% 55
Marginal Efficiency* 0.20% 23 -5.10% 61 Marginal Efficiency* 1.50% 15 -4.60% 67
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.16 79 1.2 79 EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.21 49 1.12 48
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.1 44 0.1 87 Marginal Explosiveness* 0.13 30 -0.01 53
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 34 10 28.6 59 FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 28.3 104 29.4 72
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 5.04 35 4.33 60 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 5.56 13 4.86 95
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 1.2 58 TO Luck (PPG): -0.1 TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 1.3 54 TO Luck (PPG): -1.1
Actual TO Margin 1 56 Actual TO Margin 0 64

Five Factors this week looks close just like the overall rankings. we will both be the best offense each other has faced. Wazzu has faced some good defenses in Utah and USC. we have faced at least 3 teams better on defense. they are slightly more explosive but not crazy, and they do a better job of scoring when given the opportunity. but they do bad at stopping scoring when the other team is in position. and they have much worse starting field position on offense and slightly worse on defense. Wazzu has slightly worse luck than us with turnovers.

at first glance these numbers really point to a defense optional barn burner.

DUCK COUG DUCK COUG
Duck Offense Basics Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING Rushing marginal efficiency* -5.70% 52 -1.60% 119 PASSING Passing marginal efficiency* 7.90% 11 -8.40% 11
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.12 85 -0.15 46 Passing marginal explosiveness* 39.10% 19 23.80% 87
Opportunity rate* 46.80% 63 47.70% 87 Passing completion rate* 61.80% 56 53.20% 21
Stuff rate* 13.20% 8 20.20% 51 Sack rate* 4.20% 33 9.60% 17
DUCK COUG DUCK COUG
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS SD marginal efficiency* -2.10% 49 -4.00% 81 PASSING DOWNS PD marginal efficiency* 5.80% 13 -6.00% 49
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.07 56 0.05 73 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.19 45 -0.26 7
SD line yards per carry* 2.56 59 2.4 58 PD line yards per carry* 2.7 66 2.82 80
SD sack rate* 5.40% 78 5.80% 50 PD sack rate* 2.70% 11 14.10% 10
COUG DUCK COUG DUCK
Coug Offense Basics Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING Rushing marginal efficiency* -4.10% 36 -9.60% 52 PASSING Passing marginal efficiency* 3.60% 34 -0.30% 75
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.11 79 -0.14 48 Passing marginal explosiveness* 21.90% 56 33.00% 108
Opportunity rate* 46.00% 76 45.80% 65 Passing completion rate* 68.50% 12 56.20% 40
Stuff rate* 17.70% 52 20.90% 44 Sack rate* 1.60% 4 8.40% 27
COUG DUCK COUG DUCK
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS SD marginal efficiency* 2.30% 13 -4.80% 68 PASSING DOWNS PD marginal efficiency* -0.30% 37 -5.70% 55
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.13 27 0.11 92 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.13 55 0.09 73
SD line yards per carry* 2.52 68 2.2 36 PD line yards per carry* 0.61 129 3.04 104
SD sack rate* 1.00% 7 6.10% 43 PD sack rate* 2.90% 13 11.60% 24

some interesting stuff here that seems to point towards both offenses doing well. Our running game is not super efficient or explosive but we don't get negative plays. it would appear that the Coug defense is not great at stopping the run. The strength of the Coug defense is for sure on pass defense and getting pressure on the opposing QB. our strength in the passing game is preventing pressure on Herbert. I know we will miss Sewell for this game especially. So I anticipate more pressure on Herbert in passing situations. it will be imperative we attack them on the ground as much as possible and get yards where we can. On offense the Cougs prefer the pass, but they run efficiently when they run. it looks like they dont do a ton of explosive plays or long developing plays on offense. they have an extremely low sack rate so we won't get as much pressure on them as we have with other QB's. from watching a bunch of air raid offense in the past this is by design they spread you out and attack the advantages and stress you horizontally and occasionally take shots to keep you honest vertically.

Bill Walsh Ducks Offense Duck Offense Rk Coug Defense Rk Duck Offense Rk Coug Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 52.80% 20 44.10% 48 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 44.40% 31 55.60% 35
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 63.20% 110 67.60% 62 Third-and-short percentage 15.60% 15 6.20% 21
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 11.30% 12 7.60% 73 Third-and-long success rate 40.00% 6 15.60% 14
Avg. third-down distance 6.7 20 8.6 12 Third-and-medium success rate 50.00% 53 54.80% 105
Third down success rate 54.20% 5 31.80% 24 Third-and-short success rate 85.70% 29 60.00% 14
Duck Offense Rk Coug Defense Rk
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 53.90% 28 28.60% 43 Duck Offense Rk Coug Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 18 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 39.70% 80 37.50% 55
11- to 20-yard line success rate 47.60% 33 26.70% 18
Duck Offense Rk Coug Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 58.10% 33 76.20% 128
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 43.30% 6 19.30% 11 Inside 10 turnover rate 7.00% 123 4.80% 16
Blitz down big-play rate 15.00% 9 3.50% 11 First-and-goal success rate 52.90% 67 90.00% 128
Blitz down sack rate 3.70% 18 13.30% 28 Goal line success rate 81.80% 29 75.00% 84
Bill Walsh Cougs Offense Coug Offense Rk Duck Defense Rk Coug Offense Rk Duck Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 51.70% 28 43.00% 41 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 48.10% 54 47.70% 93
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 70.40% 49 69.30% 77 Third-and-short percentage 10.10% 72 11.60% 86
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 6.80% 88 7.60% 75 Third-and-long success rate 29.00% 44 19.50% 30
Avg. third-down distance 7 42 7.1 96 Third-and-medium success rate 51.50% 48 40.00% 30
Third down success rate 38.30% 79 32.80% 30 Third-and-short success rate 37.50% 127 90.00% 118
Coug Offense Rk Duck Defense Rk
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 28.60% 87 77.80% 125 Coug Offense Rk Duck Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 18 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 53.90% 13 48.80% 109
11- to 20-yard line success rate 52.80% 17 37.00% 64
Coug Offense Rk Duck Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 61.00% 23 42.30% 29
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 32.70% 35 25.00% 46 Inside 10 turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 47
Blitz down big-play rate 12.70% 21 8.30% 71 First-and-goal success rate 58.80% 45 55.60% 77
Blitz down sack rate 3.90% 19 17.00% 14 Goal line success rate 83.30% 23 60.00% 46

I am liking these Bill Walsh stats, they really helped identify some stuff we exploited Vs. Uw. Here we can see that our offense is pretty good at staying on schedule and ahead of the chains. we do that by keeping 3rd down manageable. Wazzu's defense does a good job of preventing early yardage and making 3rd downs difficult. this will be one of the biggest turning points of the game. if our offense is successful at creating 3rd and short then we will keep humming. If Wazzu can stop us then it could be bad times for our Ducks. Wazzu blitzs well, we prevent the blitz well.

On offense Wazzu likes to get chunk yardage on 1st and second down. If Oregon's defense can get them to 3rd down we have an advantage. Wazzu is one of the worst at converting 3rd and short, our defense has been pretty bad at stopping it. we are very similar in success while being blitzed and success at blitzing. So it will be interesting to see who wins those strength on strength match-ups.

Duck Individual Stats
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Justin Herbert 6'6, 233 JR 106 168 1613 17-5 63.1% 15.2 4.5% 8.9 9.2% 0.48
Braxton Burmeister 6'1, 206 SO 4 8 27 0-0 50.0% 6.8 0.0% 3.4 -16.5% -0.86
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Rushes
Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 97 531 5.5 4 5.11 48.5% 1.6% -0.01 1 (1)
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 61 317 5.2 2 5.17 44.3% 2.9% -0.02 1 (1)
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 42 200 4.8 3 3.28 54.8% 5.7% -0.03 0 (0)
Justin Herbert QB 6'6, 233 JR 30 162 5.4 1 5.78 53.3% -0.2% -0.05 2 (0)
Darrian Felix RB 5'11, 191 SO 14 47 3.4 0 2.43 42.9% -8.4% -0.17 0 (0)
Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6'1, 210 FR 13 16 1.2 6 1.97 23.1% 17.5% -0.04 1 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Targets
Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Dillon Mitchell WR 6'2, 189 JR 53 35 561 3 66.0% 16.0 10.6 19.2% 0.32
Johnny Johnson III WR 6'0, 197 SO 20 10 177 4 50.0% 17.7 8.9 8.2% 0.66
Jaylon Redd WR 5'8, 178 SO 17 12 201 4 70.6% 16.8 11.8 18.7% 0.61
Jacob Breeland TE 6'5, 248 JR 15 9 143 2 60.0% 15.9 9.5 -10.9% 1.07
Kano Dillon TE 6'5, 265 SR 14 6 85 2 42.9% 14.2 6.1 -3.7% 0.74
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 12 9 112 0 75.0% 12.4 9.3 12.2% 0.28
Brenden Schooler WR 6'2, 193 JR 10 6 57 0 60.0% 9.5 5.7 -6.3% -0.14
Ryan Bay TE 6'3, 240 JR 6 5 43 0 83.3% 8.6 7.2 4.4% 0.10
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 5 5 39 0 100.0% 7.8 7.8 36.3% -0.45
Tabari Hines WR 5'10, 175 SR 5 3 32 1 60.0% 10.7 6.4 4.8% 0.80
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 4 3 73 0 75.0% 24.3 18.3 39.5% 0.62
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Tackles
TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Troy Dye ILB 6'4, 224 JR 32.0 2.5 0.0 3.5 1 (2) 0 4.4 -3.8% -0.21
Justin Hollins OLB 6'5, 242 SR 27.5 9.0 4.0 9.5 1 (4) 3 1.8 -8.0% -0.19
Kaulana Apelu ILB 5'10, 208 SR 26.0 5.0 2.0 5.5 0 (4) 0 4.3 -6.3% -0.09
Ugochukwu Amadi S 5'10, 201 SR 23.0 2.0 1.5 4.0 3 (5) 0 8.0 9.4% -0.05
Jalen Jelks DE 6'6, 245 SR 21.5 4.0 2.5 5.5 0 (1) 1 2.2 -11.1% -0.25
Deommodore Lenoir CB 5'11, 196 SO 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 (2) 0 16.2 50.8% 0.05
Thomas Graham Jr. CB 5'11, 191 SO 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 (6) 0 13.5 46.7% 0.28
Gary Baker DL 6'3, 310 JR 16.0 1.0 0.0 3.0 0 (0) 0 3.6 -23.3% -0.20
Isaac Slade-Matautia ILB 6'1, 220 FR 15.5 2.0 0.0 3.0 0 (1) 0 6.0 0.4% 0.04
Jordon Scott DL 6'1, 329 SO 15.0 3.5 1.0 7.5 0 (1) 0 0.6 -34.5% -0.55
Jevon Holland S 6'1, 192 FR 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3 (2) 0 13.9 41.1% 0.19
Austin Faoliu DL 6'3, 285 SO 13.5 1.0 1.0 3.5 0 (1) 0 2.1 -25.9% -0.59
Nick Pickett S 6'1, 200 SO 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0 (1) 0 12.8 31.7% 0.16
La'Mar Winston Jr. OLB 6'2, 233 JR 8.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 0 (0) 0 4.8 1.9% -0.38
Drayton Carlberg DL 6'5, 282 JR 7.5 2.5 2.5 4.5 0 (0) 1 -1.2 -33.0% -0.80
Keith Simms OLB 6'3, 227 SO 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 (0) 0 5.9 6.8% -0.16
Gus Cumberlander DL 6'7, 251 JR 4.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 0 (0) 0 -0.2 -19.8% -0.73
Adrian Jackson ILB 6'2, 218 FR 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0 (0) 0 1.0 -37.9% NULL
Popo Aumavae DL 6'3, 303 FR 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0 (0) 0 0.3 -10.5% -0.30
Mattrell McGraw S 5'10, 196 SR 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 (0) 0 3.0 -45.5% NULL


Coug Individual Stats

INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Gardner Minshew II 6'2, 220 SR 215 313 2422 19-4 68.7% 11.3 1.6% 7.5 6.6% 0.22
Trey Tinsley 6'3, 215 JR 6 8 54 1-0 75.0% 9.0 0.0% 6.8 8.2% 0.26
Anthony Gordon 6'3, 200 JR 1 3 6 0-1 33.3% 6.0 0.00% 2.0 -24.0% -0.37
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Rushes
Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
James Williams RB 6'0, 205 JR 64 260 4.1 5 2.45 50.0% -1.9% -0.03 0 (0)
Max Borghi RB 5'10, 195 FR 24 147 6.1 5 6.85 45.8% 9.3% -0.04 0 (0)
Gardner Minshew II QB 6'2, 220 SR 22 76 3.5 2 2.44 45.5% 14.8% -0.04 1 (0)
Keith Harrington RB 5'8, 200 SR 6 26 4.3 0 3.00 33.3% -7.1% -0.48 0 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Targets
Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Davontavean Martin WR 6'3, 185 SO 57 40 440 6 70.2% 11.0 7.7 5.8% 0.25
Easop Winston Jr. WR 5'11, 190 JR 45 29 426 5 64.4% 14.7 9.5 5.3% 0.63
Jamire Calvin WR 5'10, 160 SO 38 24 262 0 63.2% 10.9 6.9 5.5% -0.05
James Williams RB 6'0, 205 JR 36 32 283 3 88.9% 8.8 7.9 8.4% 0.15
Dezmon Patmon WR 6'4, 220 JR 33 25 370 2 75.8% 14.8 11.2 17.5% 0.50
Kyle Sweet WR 6'0, 190 SR 27 19 231 0 70.4% 12.2 8.6 10.7% 0.09
Max Borghi RB 5'10, 195 FR 26 19 103 1 73.1% 5.4 4.0 -5.8% 0.04
Travell Harris WR 5'9, 180 FR 17 12 127 1 70.6% 10.6 7.5 10.6% 0.06
Renard Bell WR 5'8, 162 SO 15 8 117 1 53.3% 14.6 7.8 6.2% 0.09
Calvin Jackson Jr. WR 5'10, 170 JR 9 6 67 0 66.7% 11.2 7.4 11.0% -0.14
Keith Harrington RB 5'8, 200 SR 6 6 38 0 100.0% 6.3 6.3 22.2% -0.22
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Tackles
TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Peyton Pelluer LB 6'0, 230 SR 38.0 4.5 2.0 8.0 0 (2) 0 2.2 -15.8% -0.49
Skyler Thomas S 5'9, 185 SO 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0 (1) 0 7.2 21.5% -0.41
Jahad Woods LB 6'0, 225 SO 26.5 3.0 2.0 4.0 1 (1) 0 4.7 -1.6% -0.08
Jalen Thompson S 6'0, 190 JR 22.5 1.5 0.0 2.0 1 (3) 1 8.6 10.6% 0.17
Hunter Dale DB 5'10, 195 SR 22.0 3.0 0.5 4.0 0 (0) 0 7.2 9.9% -0.05
Darrien Molton CB 5'10, 190 SR 22.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1 (5) 0 11.6 36.8% -0.17
Sean Harper Jr. DB 6'2, 190 SR 18.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0 (4) 1 10.0 32.3% -0.10
Dominick Silvels LB 6'3, 230 SO 12.5 4.5 3.5 6.5 0 (0) 0 3.3 -5.4% -0.20
Willie Taylor III DL 6'4, 235 FR 11.0 2.0 1.0 3.0 0 (0) 1 0.9 -13.8% -0.43
Logan Tago DL 6'3, 250 SR 10.0 4.5 0.0 4.5 0 (0) 0 1.7 -21.5% -0.04
Taylor Comfort DL 6'0, 280 SR 8.5 3.0 2.0 4.0 0 (0) 1 1.5 -17.4% 0.06
Dillon Sherman LB 6'2, 225 SO 8.5 1.0 0.0 1.5 0 (0) 0 3.6 -5.9% -0.59
Deion Singleton S 6'2, 195 JR 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 (0) 0 7.9 -1.6% -0.49
Will Rodgers III DE 6'5, 250 SO 6.5 2.5 2.0 3.5 0 (0) 0 -0.7 -38.1% NULL
Karson Block LB 6'1, 235 JR 5.0 1.5 0.0 2.5 0 (0) 0 0.8 -13.2% -0.30
Marcus Strong CB 5'9, 185 JR 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 (2) 0 18.6 58.3% 0.74
Nnamdi Oguayo DL 6'3, 252 JR 4.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0 (0) 0 0.3 0.4% -0.54
Misiona Aiolupotea-Pei DL 6'3, 265 JR 3.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 0 (0) 0 -1.9 -15.4% -0.12
Kedron Williams DB 6'0, 185 FR 3.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0 (1) 0 5.3 32.4% -0.74
Jesus Echevarria DL 6'2, 300 FR 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0 (0) 0 2.5 11.5% -0.32

So a few things pop out on individual stats. looks like the Cougs WR Martin and Patmon are both tall and will be match-up issues for the secondary. Thankfully with air raid offense no tightends to worry about. looking at the Coug's defense, their defensive line is on the skinny side. this could be a big exploit with our new SEXY Iowa Offense. I remember the past few years they have been doing that annoying shift before the snap so hopefully we can do some hard counts and power blocking rather than zone blocking to just blow up their line. I would get much pleasure from running right at them since their defense is built to operate in space. where as our new offense prefers to operate in a phone booth.

Duck Prints
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 66.70% 22 59.20% Standard Downs run rate* 58.70% 66 58.90%
Passing Downs run rate* 32.40% 71 34.30% Passing Downs run rate* 35.50% 53 34.30%
Adj. Pace** -3.5 9 0 Overall Havoc Rate 20.00% 16 16.40%
% of Solo Tackles 70.90% 81 72.90% DL Havoc Rate 4.90% 65 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 12.50% 24 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 8.90% 3 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 6.20% 81 6.60%
PD to INC 50.00% 4 34.40%

Coug Prints
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 31.40% 130 59.20% Standard Downs run rate* 63.90% 24 58.90%
Passing Downs run rate* 16.10% 130 34.30% Passing Downs run rate* 36.60% 40 34.30%
Adj. Pace** 4.24 128 0 Overall Havoc Rate 17.50% 43 16.40%
% of Solo Tackles 77.40% 35 72.90% DL Havoc Rate 4.80% 68 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 12.00% 15 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 5.60% 38 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 7.10% 52 6.60%
PD to INC 34.20% 66 34.40%

interesting stuff here. the Cougs have the lowest run rate in the country. it looks like I am not the only one who thought it was a good idea to run on Wazzu. I was expecting a better Havoc rate from their defense given their high sack rates. we cause more pressure on passing downs which is great against most teams but with an air raid we really can't send extra rushers every single down.

Duck Specials Coug Specials
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk
FG value (per kick) -0.7 126
FG value (per kick) 0.04 64
Punt efficiency 70.8% 30
Punt efficiency 89.5% 1
Kickoff efficiency 81.4% 61
Kickoff efficiency 66.7% 106
Punt return efficiency 75.0% 5
Punt return efficiency 38.5% 95
Kick return efficiency 76.5% 7
Kick return efficiency 27.3% 112

Wazzu is average at Kicking field goals which is amazingly better than us it is actually a better idea to punt it or go for it than trot out our field go unit. we should never kick field goals ever again.

Wazzu is the best at punting. We are good at punting. we are much better at kick offs and Wazzu is awful at returning punts or kickoffs. So our team should have great field position all day.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

which is more effective ground & pound, or death by a million paper cuts? who ever imposes their will on this game will win. Personally I like the advantages the Ducks have on offense and even though we will give up a few passes I think our defense does a better job at limiting the Cougs at what they like to do.

Bold Prediction

Ducks 35 - Cougs 21

GOOOOO DUCKSSSSSSS!!!!!!

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