FanPost

Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such Arizona 2018

Oct 13, 2018; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal motions to an injured player during the second half against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks won in overtime 30-27. - Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

I don't feel like doing a stats article this week. This was way worse than the Stanford loss. Even with the 2nd half come back. uuuuggggghhhhhh. Sleep still eludes me. Took my 4 year old to F1 practice on Friday. She had fun. The vendor set up wasn't too bad this year but it didn't seem like there was as much stuff to look at. they had some different fan zone experiences to do. they had tire changing competition and a reaction game where you have to bounce back and forth and hit 6 different buttons on what looks like a giant F1 steering wheel. They also had a racing simulator that I didn't get to check out because my daughter couldn't reach the pedals and I wasn't about to see her pitch a fit if she didn't get a chance. So it would have been better if my daughter was 8 ish. but at the age of 4 there wasn't really any thing for her to do other than watch the fast cars spin out on the wet track and eat overpriced funnel cake.

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My wife called an Audible for lunch so I didn't get to go to Lockhart for BBQ like I would have liked to. I am actually a little more torn up about that than the loss to Wazzu.

Supposed to have Hurricane Willa headed this way. Although it will only be a tropical depression by the time it crosses mexico. I am a bit more worried about that than the caravan or what ever coming from central america, #politicsthread. But I digress. on the plus side of only watching children's programming and no news. I don't have to focus on the spiraling world going down the drain thanks in part to our current political outlook.

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Who are we playing this week? ohhh right, Arizona. those are the guys threw the water bottles and batteries at our chearleaders? and why the hell do people have random batteries in their pockets at a sporting event? or what the hell could you smuggle in to the stadium that would have had batteries? I am envisioning a bunch of remote controls in peoples pockets or maybe camera flashes? it was nice before the Stanford game this year of having the moral high ground on fans throwing stuff on to the field.

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any ways ON TO THE STATS!!!

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

Ducks & Wildcats 2018 S&P+ STATS

Ducks S&P Overall Wildcats S&P Overall
S&P+ Rk: 41 S&P+ Rk: 85
Off. S&P+ Rk: 19 Off. S&P+ Rk: 80
Def. S&P+ Rk: 86 Def. S&P+ Rk: 85
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 63 Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 103
Résumé S&P+ Rk: 36 Résumé S&P+ Rk: 79
Strength of Schedule Rk: 55 Strength of Schedule Rk: 70

This Game has Oregon a 6.3 point favorite in the S&P projection. looking at the overall numbers I can see why. Our offense still looks good even after last week. the Wildcats are basically the same as us on defense, but much much worse on offense, and much much worse on special teams. we have also played tougher schedule thus far in the season. and the wildcats may or may not have their starting QB this game. but if Oregon fans know any thing, it is to fear the back up QB.

Five Factors Duck Wildcat
Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 46.20% 31 41.20% 71
Marginal Efficiency* -1.20% 37 -2.10% 97
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.15 75 1.14 59
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.08 49 -0.03 40
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 33 16 26.9 21
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.94 40 5.16 112
Oregon
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 1.8 43 TO Luck (PPG): 0.8
Actual TO Margin 3 36
Wildcat Duck
Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 41.00% 82 42.00% 83
Marginal Efficiency* -4.90% 80 -4.40% 70
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.25 29 1.16 69
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.13 29 0.07 76
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 28.2 103 28.9 63
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 3.96 110 4.56 73
Arizona
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 1.3 55 TO Luck (PPG): -0.8
Actual TO Margin 0 67

looking at this it makes Arizona seem like a hit or miss offense. they have explosive potential but if you can make them earn their yards they wont be able to be consistent enough. So hopefully our defense can do a better job of stopping drives than they did last week. on the other side I am not seeing any thing that would make me think Arizona can stop our offense.

UO UA UO UA
THE BASICS Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 102.2 54 101.2 69 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 114.2 16 96.7 96
Rushing marginal efficiency* -5.90% 56 -4.00% 108 Passing marginal efficiency* 4.10% 26 0.20% 82
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.13 88 -0.13 52 Passing marginal explosiveness* 33.80% 25 8.50% 36
Opportunity rate* 46.20% 77 47.70% 83 Passing completion rate* 60.80% 60 64.10% 115
Stuff rate* 15.60% 23 22.00% 35 Sack rate* 4.80% 42 5.40% 88
UO UO UA
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 103 52 99.5 78 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 117.6 11 101.5 62
SD marginal efficiency* -3.20% 63 -3.40% 89 PD marginal efficiency* 3.50% 14 0.50% 112
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.05 59 0.02 62 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.18 46 -0.17 13
SD line yards per carry* 2.48 75 2.53 81 PD line yards per carry* 2.57 82 2.54 55
SD sack rate* 5.20% 76 7.40% 20 PD sack rate* 4.20% 27 3.30% 121
UA UO UA UO
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 99.7 69 100.6 72 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 95.1 90 97.3 93
Rushing marginal efficiency* -7.50% 83 -10.10% 40 Passing marginal efficiency* -2.00% 80 0.70% 84
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.01 39 -0.16 44 Passing marginal explosiveness* 30.10% 32 24.90% 93
Opportunity rate* 51.20% 30 45.80% 65 Passing completion rate* 53.30% 112 60.70% 77
Stuff rate* 15.60% 24 20.40% 51 Sack rate* 3.70% 24 6.40% 63
UA UO UA UO
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 97.7 87 99.6 77 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 97.5 85 99.3 76
SD marginal efficiency* -4.50% 77 -4.70% 69 PD marginal efficiency* -5.80% 93 -3.80% 74
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.1 32 0.05 77 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.23 35 0.14 84
SD line yards per carry* 2.69 39 2.22 32 PD line yards per carry* 3.07 29 2.68 72
SD sack rate* 0.80% 2 4.50% 73 PD sack rate* 7.50% 63 9.40% 42

some odd stuff here, it looks like we should be able to pass or run on the Wildcats. on standard downs they get pretty good pressure on the quarterback, but on passing downs they get none at all. They also do a pretty good job of stuffing the run, but also give up a lot of efficient runs. On offense it looks like the Wildcats seem to be a boom or bust offense. they either score on an explosive play or stall out on a drive. So to me I think we can chalk this up to an inconsistent team on both sides of the ball with the Wildcats.

BILL WALSH STATS UO UA UO UA
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 50.70% 36 45.20% 58 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 46.20% 34 57.30% 23
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 62.70% 113 61.90% 15 Third-and-short percentage 13.20% 32 9.90% 64
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 11.40% 9 5.50% 29 Third-and-long success rate 34.70% 14 36.00% 124
Avg. third-down distance 6.6 18 7.7 50 Third-and-medium success rate 51.20% 50 48.80% 75
Third down success rate 52.20% 9 41.60% 84 Third-and-short success rate 85.70% 28 69.20% 46
UO UA
Offense Rk Defense Rk UO UA
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 53.90% 25 29.40% 49 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 28 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 36.90% 91 62.80% 129
UO UA 11- to 20-yard line success rate 48.90% 27 23.30% 12
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 53.10% 60 48.70% 67
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 38.90% 11 36.70% 121 Inside 10 turnover rate 6.10% 122 0.00% 50
Blitz down big-play rate 12.50% 17 13.30% 119 First-and-goal success rate 50.00% 77 63.60% 103
Blitz down sack rate 6.20% 39 4.20% 120 Goal line success rate 81.80% 30 66.70% 60
UA UO UA UO
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 47.60% 65 44.90% 55 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 49.60% 68 44.00% 111
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 65.40% 94 69.20% 79 Third-and-short percentage 12.00% 48 11.00% 85
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 9.20% 29 7.00% 61 Third-and-long success rate 24.10% 68 18.20% 26
Avg. third-down distance 6.7 25 7 102 Third-and-medium success rate 55.60% 31 48.90% 77
Third down success rate 42.60% 46 34.70% 39 Third-and-short success rate 50.00% 118 90.90% 123
UA UO
Offense Rk Defense Rk UA UO
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 53.30% 26 77.80% 126 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 28 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 38.10% 85 50.00% 110
UA UO 11- to 20-yard line success rate 28.90% 113 37.80% 68
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 46.40% 95 41.40% 25
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 32.50% 37 29.00% 77 Inside 10 turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 50
Blitz down big-play rate 10.80% 34 7.30% 61 First-and-goal success rate 66.70% 16 50.00% 51
Blitz down sack rate 7.10% 44 14.60% 22 Goal line success rate 50.00% 103 60.00% 42

Looks like Oregon should have success with big plays and keeping ahead of the chains. also we should do much better on 3rd downs on offense. looks like on downs the defense should blitz the Wildcats do badly on defense. on Offense the Wildcats do pretty well at keeping the third downs manageable, but still don't have great success in converting those 3rd downs.

Duck Players
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Justin Herbert 6'6, 233 JR 131 212 1883 18-5 61.80% 14.4 4.90% 8.1 5.60% 0.42
Braxton Burmeister 6'1, 206 SO 4 8 27 0-0 50.00% 6.8 0.00% 3.4 -16.50% -0.86
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Rushes
Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 109 586 5.4 4 5.15 47.70% 0.80% -0.01 1 (1)
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 64 313 4.9 2 5.2 42.20% 0.70% -0.02 1 (1)
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 42 200 4.8 3 3.28 54.80% 5.70% -0.03 0 (0)
Justin Herbert QB 6'6, 233 JR 34 187 5.5 2 5.24 55.90% 2.70% -0.04 2 (0)
Darrian Felix RB 5'11, 191 SO 14 47 3.4 0 2.43 42.90% -8.40% -0.17 0 (0)
Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6'1, 210 FR 13 16 1.2 6 1.97 23.10% 17.50% -0.04 1 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Targets
Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Dillon Mitchell WR 6'2, 189 JR 67 42 608 3 62.70% 14.5 9.1 12.00% 0.28
Johnny Johnson III WR 6'0, 197 SO 24 11 185 4 45.80% 16.8 7.7 5.10% 0.53
Jaylon Redd WR 5'8, 178 SO 22 16 238 5 72.70% 14.9 10.8 18.60% 0.42
Jacob Breeland TE 6'5, 248 JR 22 13 206 2 59.10% 15.8 9.4 -7.90% 0.77
Brenden Schooler WR 6'2, 193 JR 18 10 116 0 55.60% 11.6 6.4 -7.90% 0.15
Kano Dillon TE 6'5, 265 SR 16 8 110 2 50.00% 13.8 6.9 -2.10% 0.64
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 15 11 137 0 73.30% 12.5 9.1 9.00% 0.36
Ryan Bay TE 6'3, 240 JR 7 6 49 0 85.70% 8.2 7 -1.30% 0.1
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 5 5 39 0 100.00% 7.8 7.8 36.30% -0.45
Tabari Hines WR 5'10, 175 SR 5 3 32 1 60.00% 10.7 6.4 4.80% 0.8
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 4 3 73 0 75.00% 24.3 18.3 39.50% 0.62
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Tackles
TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Troy Dye ILB 6'4, 224 JR 42 2.5 0 3.5 1 (3) 0 4.3 -5.20% -0.27
Kaulana Apelu ILB 5'10, 208 SR 38 5 2 5.5 0 (4) 0 4.8 0.30% -0.27
Justin Hollins OLB 6'5, 242 SR 29.5 9 4 9.5 1 (4) 3 2 -7.00% -0.22
Ugochukwu Amadi S 5'10, 201 SR 25.5 2 1.5 4 3 (6) 0 7.9 12.80% -0.08
Jalen Jelks DE 6'6, 245 SR 25 4 2.5 5.5 0 (1) 1 2.5 -9.10% -0.26
Deommodore Lenoir CB 5'11, 196 SO 21.5 0 0 0 3 (3) 0 15 52.40% -0.02
Thomas Graham Jr. CB 5'11, 191 SO 19.5 1 0 0 0 (6) 0 11.5 33.50% 0.28
Jevon Holland S 6'1, 192 FR 18 0 0 0 3 (3) 0 13.3 39.40% 0.21
Isaac Slade-Matautia ILB 6'1, 220 FR 16.5 2 0 3 0 (1) 0 6.5 3.30% 0.09
Gary Baker DL 6'3, 310 JR 16 1 0 3 0 (0) 0 3.6 -23.30% -0.2
Jordon Scott DL 6'1, 329 SO 15.5 3.5 1 7.5 0 (1) 0 0.6 -34.70% -0.55
Nick Pickett S 6'1, 200 SO 15 0 0 0.5 0 (1) 0 13.1 30.80% 0.23
Austin Faoliu DL 6'3, 285 SO 14 1 1 3.5 0 (1) 0 2.1 -26.40% -0.59
La'Mar Winston Jr. OLB 6'2, 233 JR 11.5 0.5 0.5 1 0 (2) 0 5 -0.50% -0.36
Drayton Carlberg DL 6'5, 282 JR 8.5 2.5 2.5 4.5 0 (0) 1 -0.9 -33.90% -0.8
Keith Simms OLB 6'3, 227 SO 6 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 5.9 6.80% -0.16
Gus Cumberlander DL 6'7, 251 JR 5.5 2 2 2 0 (0) 0 0 -11.30% -0.65
Adrian Jackson ILB 6'2, 218 FR 2.5 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 1.4 -39.80% NULL
Verone McKinley III CB 5'10, 183 FR 2 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 3 -38.40% NULL
Popo Aumavae DL 6'3, 303 FR 2 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 0.3 -10.50% -0.3
Wildcat Players
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Khalil Tate 6'2, 215 JR 95 178 1415 11-4 53.4% 14.9 3.3% 7.4 1.0% 0.37
Rhett Rodriguez 6'0, 201 SO 41 79 506 3-2 51.9% 12.3 4.8% 5.9 -8.8% 0.32
Jamarye Joiner 6'1, 210 FR 3 4 17 0-0 75.0% 5.7 20.0% 2.8 -7.6% -0.29
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Rushes
Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
J.J. Taylor RB 5'6, 184 SO 137 817 6.0 4 5.49 52.6% -0.1% -0.01 3 (3)
Gary Brightwell RB 6'1, 206 SO 77 443 5.8 2 5.30 53.3% -7.1% -0.03 2 (0)
Khalil Tate QB 6'2, 215 JR 40 170 4.3 2 3.93 47.5% 0.8% -0.04 1 (0)
Darrius Smith RB 5'9, 175 FR 15 62 4.1 1 3.34 53.3% 17.8% -0.06 0 (0)
Anthony Mariscal RB 5'10, 212 JR 11 76 6.9 1 5.77 63.6% 10.4% -0.08 1 (1)
Jamarye Joiner QB 6'1, 210 FR 6 4 0.7 0 NULL 0.0% -37.6% -1.00 0 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Targets
Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Shawn Poindexter WR 6'5, 218 SR 51 30 552 4 58.8% 18.4 10.8 15.5% 0.37
Shun Brown WR 5'10, 188 SR 51 36 389 3 70.6% 10.8 7.6 8.6% -0.07
Tony Ellison WR 5'11, 189 SR 34 19 353 3 55.9% 18.6 10.4 5.1% 0.80
Cedric Peterson WR 5'11, 193 JR 23 12 154 3 52.2% 12.8 6.7 -3.5% 0.44
Devaughn Cooper WR 5'10, 175 SO 21 12 208 0 57.1% 17.3 9.9 -4.5% 0.89
J.J. Taylor RB 5'6, 184 SO 19 11 87 0 57.9% 7.9 4.6 -19.7% 0.59
Stanley Berryhill III WR 5'9, 172 FR 13 9 140 1 69.2% 15.6 10.8 14.4% 0.47
Bryce Wolma TE 6'3, 252 SO 7 2 13 0 28.6% 6.5 1.9 -28.1% -0.17
Gary Brightwell RB 6'1, 206 SO 6 1 0 0 16.7% 0.0 0.0 -32.5% 0.00
Jamie Nunley TE 6'5, 231 SO 3 2 21 0 66.7% 10.5 7.0 35.2% -0.68
Thomas Reid III WR 6'2, 204 SO 3 1 6 0 33.3% 6.0 2.0 -10.7% -0.54
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Tackles
TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Colin Schooler LB 6'0, 236 SO 61.0 14.5 2.0 17.5 2 (3) 1 3.5 -5.6% -0.58
Tony Fields II LB 6'1, 230 SO 45.5 1.0 0.0 3.0 0 (0) 0 6.0 7.0% -0.40
Jarrius Wallace S 6'1, 180 SO 44.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 1 (2) 1 10.8 28.7% -0.02
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles S 6'2, 209 SR 30.5 3.0 0.0 1.5 0 (4) 1 8.3 14.6% -0.15
Lorenzo Burns CB 5'10, 181 SO 25.0 1.0 1.0 1.5 0 (8) 0 9.2 27.8% -0.34
Scottie Young Jr. S 5'11, 195 SO 20.5 2.0 0.0 2.0 2 (1) 0 7.7 30.1% -0.24
Dereck Boles DT 6'2, 306 SR 20.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 0 (0) 1 2.7 -11.2% -0.60
Isaiah Hayes S 6'0, 191 SO 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0 (0) 1 8.8 34.3% -0.29
Tim Hough CB 5'11, 195 SR 19.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 (3) 0 11.2 25.1% -0.28
Jalen Harris STUD 6'4, 230 FR 18.0 2.5 2.5 4.5 0 (0) 0 2.0 -15.3% -0.37
PJ Johnson DT 6'4, 335 JR 17.5 6.5 3.0 9.0 0 (0) 0 0.5 -33.6% -0.40
JB Brown DE 6'3, 263 SO 17.0 4.5 1.0 10.0 0 (0) 1 0.4 -37.3% -0.52
Tristan Cooper S 6'1, 194 JR 17.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 0 (3) 0 4.0 10.1% -0.32
Anthony Pandy LB 6'0, 225 SO 16.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 0 (1) 0 2.7 -4.8% -0.58
Lee Anderson III STUD 6'1, 243 JR 12.0 0.5 0.5 1.5 0 (0) 0 7.6 5.8% 0.13
Kylan Wilborn STUD 6'2, 248 SO 10.5 3.0 2.0 5.0 0 (0) 1 1.2 -29.0% 0.00
Finton Connolly DT 6'5, 301 JR 9.0 2.5 1.0 3.5 0 (1) 0 -0.4 -30.1% -0.30
Dayven Coleman S 6'2, 216 FR 8.5 1.5 0.0 2.0 0 (0) 0 6.5 -6.5% 0.03
Abraham Maiava DL 6'2, 300 JR 8.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 0 (0) 0 2.9 -40.5% NULL
Azizi Hearn CB 6'1, 193 FR 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 (0) 0 11.7 40.1% 0.21

A few observations. Herbert is pretty good. The Wildcat QB's are largely holding their team back. UA will give you a chance to strip the ball, every time we tackle a runner or QB this game especially we need to strip it. Poindexter could be very scary if UA can manage to throw the ball to him. also the offense should know where Colin Schooler is lining up on D, he is the big run stuffer and leading tackler.

Duck Prints Stats
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 63.30% 36 59.40% Standard Downs run rate* 54.60% 99 59.10%
Passing Downs run rate* 29.60% 87 34.40% Passing Downs run rate* 32.50% 82 34.40%
Adj. Pace** -2.96 13 0 Overall Havoc Rate 18.70% 29 16.40%
% of Solo Tackles 72.40% 75 72.80% DL Havoc Rate 4.20% 83 5.20%
Havoc Rate Allowed 13.20% 29 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 8.10% 5 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 6.40% 74 6.60%
PD to INC 52.20% 1 34.30%
Wildcat Prints Stats
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 61.30% 45 59.40% Standard Downs run rate* 64.40% 23 59.10%
Passing Downs run rate* 34.30% 63 34.40% Passing Downs run rate* 32.40% 83 34.40%
Adj. Pace** -2.93 15 0 Overall Havoc Rate 14.90% 94 16.40%
% of Solo Tackles 85.90% 4 72.80% DL Havoc Rate 4.50% 81 5.20%
Havoc Rate Allowed 11.00% 9 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 4.10% 74 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 6.30% 79 6.60%
PD to INC 37.20% 39 34.30%

Both Offenses go at a similar pace, both do a good job of limiting havoc caused by the opposing defense. thanks to the linebackers batting down balls and Lenoir getting his hands on 2 passes last week our defense causes quite a bit of havoc in the passing game. UA does not cause much Havoc.

DUCK SPECIAL TEAMS Category Rate Rk WILDCAT SPECIAL TEAMS Category Rate Rk
FG value (per kick) -0.35 108 FG value (per kick) -0.33 104
Punt efficiency 67.90% 36 Punt efficiency 58.30% 68
Kickoff efficiency 81.30% 62 Kickoff efficiency 93.30% 12
Punt return efficiency 76.90% 5 Punt return efficiency 28.60% 115
Kick return efficiency 76.50% 5 Kick return efficiency 40.00% 78

We are both equally bad kicking field goals. The ducks have pretty big advantages in punting, punt returns and kick off returns. We should have a strong advantage in starting field position all game on both sides of the ball.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Oregon should win this game going away. If Tate is still out than especially so. Arizona could hang around if we let them. If this game is close it is our fault. Arizona shouldn't be able to stop our offense.

BOLD PREDICTION

UO 42 - UA 14

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