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Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such, Uw 2018

By on Oct 9, 2018, 11:47am PDT 34

EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 08: Tight end Kano Dillon #85 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates with teammates on the sideline after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter of the game at Autzen Stadium on September 8, 2018 in Eugene, Oregon. - Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Happy I Hate washington Week every one!!! I hope every one had a good bye week and is in full panic mode for the game Saturday. so in the past 2 weeks with a 3 week old baby and 14 month old twins with some sinus junk going on. I have been averaging about 4 hours of sleep per night with no more than 2 continuous hours of sleep at any one time.

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Ugh, I am gonna die

Thankfully we have a membership with sam's club so my pantry is fully stocked with sugar free Red Bull.

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Nectar of the gods

Needless to say if you disagree with my rants or analysis this week you can chalk it up to my lack of sleep, but if you agree with me. Then what the hell is wrong with you?

Watching the news and politics right now is terrible. We need something to bring the world together, like our Hatred of those dirty dawgs up north in seattle. so I say in the name of world peace let the world focus all our hate for this one week on Uw.

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NOW ON TO THE STATS!!!

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

in case you have any questions on definitions or from where I am getting my info I have provided links below to stats glossary, and to both Ducks and Uw dawgs stats provided by Bill Connelly.

2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

Ducks & dawgs 2018 S&P+ stats

Ducks Overall S&P+ S&P+ Rk: 34 dawgs Overall S&P+ S&P+ Rk: 10
Off. S&P+ Rk: 16 Off. S&P+ Rk: 29
Def. S&P+ Rk: 80 Def. S&P+ Rk: 7
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 83 Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 110
Résumé S&P+ Rk: 38 Résumé S&P+ Rk: 22
Strength of Schedule Rk: 111 Strength of Schedule Rk: 64

So looking at the numbers Uw dropped a little this last week after their dreadful performance against the previously hapless UCLA Bruins. They dropped in all 3 phases of the game from last weeks numbers. I made a point in last weeks quack fixes that washington had played no one that had a pulse on offense. That is still mostly true this week, although ASU did jump up to 38th in Off. S&P+. otherwise their opponents ranged from 71st to 106th. the reason I brought this up last week is every one was saying how amazing their defense was, and yet they hadn't seen an offense nearly as good as ours. where as our offense has faced several at the time "top 10" defenses. Cal still rates as a top 6 defense even after their Arizona debacle last saturday. I would be remiss if I did not point out that our defense has also not played an offense as good as Uw's. As our best opponent on that side was Stanford, currently sitting at 56th in off. S&P+ and we all remember that game. The S&P Projected margin for this game nearly dropped in half from 11.4 points last week to 6.4 this week. So Overall S&P does pick Uw to win, but lets dig in further and see where we need to perform better and eek out a win.

Five Factors

Duck FIVE FACTORS Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 48.70% 21 38.70% 49
Marginal Efficiency* 1.70% 19 -5.60% 56
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.25 35 1.24 88
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.16 24 0.12 89
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 33.4 13 28.7 64
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 5.15 32 4.46 67
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 1.9 41 TO Luck (PPG): -0.9
Actual TO Margin 1 50
dawg FIVE FACTORS Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 46.10% 33 37.50% 31
Marginal Efficiency* -1.00% 38 -8.80% 20
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.15 82 0.93 4
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.05 74 -0.17 6
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 30 69 29 68
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.61 71 3.36 10
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 3.9 16 TO Luck (PPG): -4.1
Actual TO Margin -1 76

Some interesting stuff here. Our offense is pretty efficient and we don't rely on explosive plays to get our points but we do hit the explosive plays enough to keep opponents honest. Uw does not give up explosive plays and forces offenses to be patient and execute to get points. The Ducks special teams and luck have helped us with field position on offense. but both our defenses have almost identical starting field positions. Oregon so far for the season has much better turnover luck and that could be a major key to a win on Saturday.

THE BASICS

Ducks Offense Vs dawgs Defense DUCK dAWG DUCK dAWG
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING Rushing marginal efficiency* -4.40% 39 -10.30% 48 PASSING Passing marginal efficiency* 9.60% 9 -7.40% 17
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.08 66 -0.17 35 Passing marginal explosiveness* 47.40% 15 -17.30% 1
Opportunity rate* 48.30% 51 47.10% 82 Passing completion rate* 63.00% 41 64.40% 111
Stuff rate* 15.10% 21 14.90% 116 Sack rate* 4.50% 38 3.70% 116
DUCK dAWG DUCK dAWG
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS SD marginal efficiency* -1.30% 43 -7.10% 45 PASSING DOWNS PD marginal efficiency* 9.00% 9 -12.20% 8
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.13 31 -0.24 3 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.26 33 0.06 61
SD line yards per carry* 2.45 75 2.63 92 PD line yards per carry* 2.62 69 3.1 105
SD sack rate* 6.70% 95 0.00% 130 PD sack rate* 1.70% 5 8.80% 57
dawgs Offense VS Ducks Defense dAWG DUCK dAWG DUCK
Offense Rk Defense Rk
Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING Rushing marginal efficiency* -5.40% 53 -9.70% 55 PASSING Passing marginal efficiency* 4.20% 29 -1.70% 62
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.21 109 -0.16 40 Passing marginal explosiveness* 34.60% 29 33.40% 106
Opportunity rate* 49.30% 42 43.60% 40 Passing completion rate* 68.00% 16 55.60% 33
Stuff rate* 17.20% 44 22.60% 30 Sack rate* 5.90% 56 9.20% 17
dAWG DUCK dAWG DUCK
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS SD marginal efficiency* -1.10% 41 -4.40% 78 PASSING DOWNS PD marginal efficiency* -0.70% 43 -8.10% 31
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.08 54 0.08 78 PD marginal explosiveness* -0.09 103 0.26 105
SD line yards per carry* 2.51 68 2.07 24 PD line yards per carry* 2.66 67 2.78 75
SD sack rate* 4.20% 54 7.10% 29 PD sack rate* 8.10% 75 12.30% 20

Ok, liking what I see here. first stats that jump out to me. Our passing offense vs dawgs pass defense. although the dawgs don't give up big plays, they also get no pressure on the passer. that plays right in to our hands. If they can't get to Herbert he will exploit what the defense gives him all day long. it looks like we will be able to move the ball against them on the ground as well and that is our primary strength for this game. the dawgs will have less, but similar success passing. we should have a pretty clear cut advantage in running the ball and limiting their running. hopefully we have improved our quarterback draw defense as that seems to be Browning's go to if we start to get to him with the pass rush.

BILL WALSH STATS

DUCKS Offense vs. dAWGS Defense DUCKS dAWGS DUCKS dAWGS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 50.30% 41 45.00% 56 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 43.10% 23 36.60% 128
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 62.20% 112 52.10% 1 Third-and-short percentage 16.70% 12 13.90% 112
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 12.10% 8 3.90% 5 Third-and-long success rate 41.90% 5 35.10% 121
Avg. third-down distance 6.5 15 6.1 124 Third-and-medium success rate 44.80% 88 40.00% 32
Third down success rate 56.00% 5 46.20% 115 Third-and-short success rate 91.70% 20 78.60% 77
DUCKS dAWGS
Offense Rk Defense Rk DUCKS dAWGS
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 53.90% 31 33.30% 56 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 15 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 41.50% 73 28.10% 12
DUCKS dAWGS 11- to 20-yard line success rate 50.00% 26 31.00% 34
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 56.80% 45 40.70% 29
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 44.70% 5 33.80% 104 Inside 10 turnover rate 8.10% 126 0.00% 42
Blitz down big-play rate 19.20% 4 8.80% 76 First-and-goal success rate 53.30% 74 33.30% 19
Blitz down sack rate 4.60% 28 9.80% 61 Goal line success rate 80.00% 28 50.00% 23
dAWGS Offense vs. DUCKS Defense dAWGS DUCKS dAWGS DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 53.30% 22 42.10% 33 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 48.20% 59 50.70% 68
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 70.30% 60 70.70% 90 Third-and-short percentage 10.80% 60 12.30% 90
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 9.80% 28 7.10% 58 Third-and-long success rate 25.00% 69 18.90% 34
Avg. third-down distance 8.3 114 7.3 85 Third-and-medium success rate 76.50% 1 37.00% 19
Third down success rate 53.60% 8 29.10% 17 Third-and-short success rate 77.80% 57 88.90% 110
dAWGS DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk dAWGS DUCKS
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 20.00% 105 71.40% 121 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 15 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 46.00% 48 51.70% 111
dAWGS DUCKS 11- to 20-yard line success rate 46.30% 36 36.00% 58
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 46.70% 95 38.10% 24
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 30.40% 64 22.60% 28 Inside 10 turnover rate 2.20% 91 0.00% 42
Blitz down big-play rate 5.40% 105 9.40% 84 First-and-goal success rate 43.80% 95 42.90% 45
Blitz down sack rate 7.30% 48 17.10% 16 Goal line success rate 46.70% 111 50.00% 23

I am seeing a repeating trend supported by these numbers, the Ducks are good when they keep Herbert clean. Uw's defense does really well on first down, but kind of peters out on 3rd down and has little to no pass rush. unlike previous stats Oregon's defense does quite well on third down.

DUCK INDIVIDUAL STATS
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Justin Herbert 6'6, 233 JR 88 136 1411 15-5 64.70% 16 4.90% 9.5 10.30% 0.57
Braxton Burmeister 6'1, 206 SO 4 8 27 0-0 50.00% 6.8 0.00% 3.4 -16.50% -0.86
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Rushes
 Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 68 420 6.2 2 6.27 51.50% 2.50% -0.02 1 (1)
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 46 250 5.4 2 6.11 43.50% 0.10% -0.03 1 (1)
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 42 200 4.8 3 3.28 54.80% 5.70% -0.03 0 (0)
Justin Herbert QB 6'6, 233 JR 26 158 6.1 1 6.05 57.70% 1.90% -0.05 2 (0)
Darrian Felix RB 5'11, 191 SO 14 47 3.4 0 2.43 42.90% -8.40% -0.17 0 (0)
Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6'1, 210 FR 13 16 1.2 6 1.97 23.10% 17.50% -0.04 1 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Targets
 Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Dillon Mitchell WR 6'2, 189 JR 38 27 442 2 71.10% 16.4 11.6 24.20% 0.32
Johnny Johnson III WR 6'0, 197 SO 20 10 177 4 50.00% 17.7 8.9 8.20% 0.66
Jaylon Redd WR 5'8, 178 SO 13 9 168 3 69.20% 18.7 12.9 19.40% 0.97
Jacob Breeland TE 6'5, 248 JR 12 7 131 2 58.30% 18.7 10.9 -13.00% 1.56
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 11 9 112 0 81.80% 12.4 10.2 17.80% 0.28
Kano Dillon TE 6'5, 265 SR 11 5 77 2 45.50% 15.4 7 -2.40% 0.87
Brenden Schooler WR 6'2, 193 JR 8 6 57 0 75.00% 9.5 7.1 7.00% -0.14
Tabari Hines WR 5'10, 175 SR 5 3 32 1 60.00% 10.7 6.4 4.80% 0.8
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 4 3 73 0 75.00% 24.3 18.3 39.50% 0.62
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 4 4 32 0 100.00% 8 8 30.60% -0.4
Taj Griffin RB 5'11, 178 SR 3 2 89 1 66.70% 44.5 29.7 24.20% 2.91
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Tackles
 TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
(defense-only -- no special teams tackles) Troy Dye ILB 6'4, 224 JR 23.5 1.5 0 2.5 1 (2) 0 4.7 -1.10% -0.24
Justin Hollins OLB 6'5, 242 SR 21.5 8 4 8.5 1 (4) 3 1.2 -12.70% -0.22
Kaulana Apelu ILB 5'10, 208 SR 21.5 4.5 1.5 5 0 (3) 0 2.9 -14.50% -0.37
Ugochukwu Amadi S 5'10, 201 SR 20 2 1.5 4 3 (5) 0 8.3 14.90% -0.05
Jalen Jelks DE 6'6, 245 SR 18.5 4 2.5 5.5 0 (1) 1 1.8 -12.40% -0.22
Gary Baker DL 6'3, 310 JR 14.5 1 0 3 0 (0) 0 3.7 -22.20% -0.17
Thomas Graham Jr. CB 5'11, 191 SO 13.5 0 0 0 0 (6) 0 14.9 43.50% 0.41
Jordon Scott DL 6'1, 329 SO 12.5 2.5 1 6 0 (1) 0 0.7 -33.50% -0.55
Deommodore Lenoir CB 5'11, 196 SO 12.5 0 0 0 0 (2) 0 17.8 45.90% 0.29
Jevon Holland S 6'1, 192 FR 10.5 0 0 0 3 (2) 0 13.1 40.70% 0.13
Isaac Slade-Matautia ILB 6'1, 220 FR 10.5 1 0 2 0 (0) 0 7.2 -5.30% 0.3
Nick Pickett S 6'1, 200 SO 10.5 0 0 0.5 0 (1) 0 13.9 36.10% 0.24
Austin Faoliu DL 6'3, 285 SO 10.5 0.5 0.5 2 0 (1) 0 2.6 -20.40% -0.59
La'Mar Winston Jr. OLB 6'2, 233 JR 7.5 0.5 0.5 1 0 (0) 0 4.9 7.30% -0.38
Drayton Carlberg DL 6'5, 282 JR 7 2.5 2.5 4 0 (0) 1 -1.3 -32.40% -0.8
Keith Simms OLB 6'3, 227 SO 6 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 5.9 6.80% -0.16
Gus Cumberlander DL 6'7, 251 JR 4 2 2 2 0 (0) 0 -1 -29.70% NULL
Adrian Jackson ILB 6'2, 218 FR 2 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 1 -37.90% NULL
Mattrell McGraw S 5'10, 196 SR 2 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 3 -45.50% NULL
Popo Aumavae DL 6'3, 303 FR 2 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 0.3 -10.50% -0.3

dAWG INDIVIDUAL STATS
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Jake Browning 6'2, 210 SR 111 166 1508 9-5 66.90% 13.6 5.70% 8.1 8.30% 0.31
Jake Haener 6'0, 196 FR 7 7 110 1-0 100.00% 15.7 0.00% 15.7 44.50% 0.59
Andre Baccellia 5'10, 173 JR 1 2 14 0-1 50.00% 14 0.00% 7 10.50% 0.03
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Rushes
 Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
Myles Gaskin TB 5'10, 193 SR 124 554 4.5 5 3.89 47.60% -2.20% -0.02 0 (0)
Salvon Ahmed TB 5'11, 195 SO 40 258 6.5 2 5.48 60.00% 10.90% -0.03 1 (0)
Jake Browning QB 6'2, 210 SR 29 131 4.5 3 3.56 51.70% 17.00% -0.04 0 (0)
Kamari Pleasant TB 6'0, 204 SO 12 75 6.3 1 5.39 58.30% 12.30% -0.09 0 (0)
Sean McGrew TB 5'7, 174 SO 11 58 5.3 1 3.83 63.60% -2.70% -0.26 0 (0)
Chico McClatcher WR 5'8, 181 JR 4 7 1.8 0 3.3 25.00% -16.20% -0.84 0 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Targets
 Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Aaron Fuller WR 5'11, 186 JR 53 35 574 2 66.00% 16.4 10.8 13.80% 0.42
Ty Jones WR 6'4, 209 SO 26 14 267 4 53.80% 19.1 10.3 5.60% 0.67
Andre Baccellia WR 5'10, 173 JR 19 16 197 0 84.20% 12.3 10.4 18.10% 0.01
Myles Gaskin TB 5'10, 193 SR 16 11 48 0 68.80% 4.4 3 -4.00% -0.46
Drew Sample TE 6'5, 251 SR 15 12 112 1 80.00% 9.3 7.5 12.50% -0.08
Quinten Pounds WR 6'0, 180 JR 12 8 166 1 66.70% 20.8 13.8 13.70% 0.87
Chico McClatcher WR 5'8, 181 JR 9 8 119 0 88.90% 14.9 13.2 29.80% 0.54
Salvon Ahmed TB 5'11, 195 SO 8 8 68 0 100.00% 8.5 8.5 12.90% -0.19
Cade Otton TE 6'5, 249 FR 4 4 41 2 100.00% 10.3 10.3 12.20% 0.27
Sean McGrew TB 5'7, 174 SO 2 2 14 0 100.00% 7 7 12.30% -0.18
Alex Cook WR 6'1, 193 FR 1 1 26 0 100.00% 26 26 33.30% 1.81
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year
Tackles
 TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
(defense-only -- no special teams tackles) Ben Burr-Kirven LB 6'0, 221 SR 55.5 0.5 0 2.5 0 (1) 3 5.4 -1.20% -0.38
Myles Bryant DB 5'8, 182 JR 27.5 3 2 3 0 (3) 1 3.9 -1.10% -0.23
Tevis Bartlett LB 6'3, 233 SR 23.5 1 0 1 0 (1) 1 6.7 6.70% -0.1
Byron Murphy DB 5'11, 182 SO 21 3 0 2.5 0 (9) 1 11.3 15.80% 0.46
JoJo McIntosh DB 6'1, 205 SR 19.5 0 0 0 0 (2) 0 7.3 26.00% -0.41
Taylor Rapp DB 6'0, 200 JR 17.5 4 4 4 1 (1) 0 9.2 26.90% 0.15
Jaylen Johnson DL 6'3, 286 SR 14 0 0 2 0 (0) 0 2.7 -22.40% -0.22
Benning Potoa'e OLB 6'3, 277 JR 14 4 0 6 0 (0) 0 1.2 -25.70% -0.57
Greg Gaines DL 6'2, 316 SR 14 1.5 1 4.5 0 (0) 0 1.9 -19.00% -0.68
Jordan Miller DB 6'1, 181 SR 13.5 0 0 1 1 (4) 2 10.7 15.70% 0.18
Levi Onwuzurike DL 6'3, 282 SO 12 1 0 2 0 (0) 0 2.5 -22.70% -0.17
Ariel Ngata OLB 6'2, 217 FR 9 1 0 0 0 (0) 1 3.9 -15.70% 0.03
Ryan Bowman OLB 6'0, 263 SO 7 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 4.4 -12.10% -0.4
DJ Beavers LB 6'1, 219 JR 6 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 4.5 -21.10% -0.05
Elijah Molden DB 5'11, 190 SO 5.5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 4.9 19.00% -0.58
Jake Wambaugh LB 6'2, 224 SR 5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 4.5 0.20% -0.21
Kyler Manu LB 6'1, 238 JR 4.5 0 0 1 0 (0) 0 4.1 -15.40% -0.19
Amandre Williams OLB 6'2, 241 SO 4.5 0 0 0 0 (1) 0 4.8 -9.70% -0.6
Shane Bowman DL 6'4, 291 SR 4.5 1 1 1.5 0 (1) 1 1.9 -24.60% -0.06
Josiah Bronson DL 6'3, 280 JR 4 0 0 0.5 0 (0) 0 3.9 -20.50% -0.85

a few things here, it looks like Uw has had similar issues with people catching balls thrown. I don't know whose fault it is for them, but I put most of the blame from the Ducks drops on the receivers. Herbert tends to attempt and complete longer passes than Browning. Arron Fuller is their top target passing but he is not probably as dangerous for us as Ty Jones will be because of height. Uw has the height in their playmakers to exploit our defensive weaknesses. none of their runners are super scary at face value. we just have to be careful to not get exploited when we are looking for the pass and they run it.

DUCK PRINTS

OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 65.40% 23 59.10% Standard Downs run rate* 54.80% 94 58.70%
Passing Downs run rate* 33.70% 66 34.40% Passing Downs run rate* 35.20% 59 34.40%
Adj. Pace** -3.23 10 0 Overall Havoc Rate 21.70% 8 16.50%
% of Solo Tackles 72.90% 69 72.80% DL Havoc Rate 5.50% 54 5.20%
Havoc Rate Allowed 13.10% 29 15.50% LB Havoc Rate 9.10% 2 4.70%
** Adj. Pace is presented as the difference between a team's tempo (seconds per play) and the tempo expected based on their run-pass rate. DB Havoc Rate 7.10% 58 6.70%
PD to INC 52.90% 1 34.60%

dAWG PRINTS

OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 63.90% 31 59.10% Standard Downs run rate* 55.30% 89 58.70%
Passing Downs run rate* 30.80% 82 34.40% Passing Downs run rate* 32.80% 75 34.40%
Adj. Pace** 2.09 107 0 Overall Havoc Rate 14.40% 105 16.50%
% of Solo Tackles 79.10% 22 72.80% DL Havoc Rate 1.40% 127 5.20%
Havoc Rate Allowed 13.80% 39 15.50% LB Havoc Rate 3.90% 81 4.70%
** Adj. Pace is presented as the difference between a team's tempo (seconds per play) DB Havoc Rate 9.10% 9 6.70%
and the tempo expected based on their run-pass rate. PD to INC 36.20% 55 34.60%

Uw tends to move a lot slower pace wise, but they do a good job of getting their playmakers in 1v1 situations. our defense does a better job in causing pressure. especially on passing downs. our linebackers are scarry and their DB's look good.

DUCKS SPECIALS

SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk
FG value (per kick) -0.87 125
Punt efficiency 70.00% 33
Kickoff efficiency 79.00% 73
Punt return efficiency 81.80% 6
Kick return efficiency 69.20% 16
PLACE-KICKING Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT % FG % Net Pts/FG
Adam Stack 6'2, 182 SO 10-10 100.00% 1-2 50.00% -0.44
Zach Emerson 6'2, 214 SO 21-22 95.50% 0-1 0.00% -1.69
PUNTING Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg. TB FC I20 Opp. Ret-Avg Punt SR
Net Yds/Punt
Tom Snee 6'3, 205 FR 11 36.5 0 8 5 1 - 35.0 54.50% 33.4
Blake Maimone 6'6, 227 JR 9 43.6 0 3 2 3 - 2.3 88.90% 42.8
KICKOFFS Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg. TB TB% OOB Opp. Ret-Avg Kickoff SR
Net Yds/Kick
Zach Emerson 6'2, 214 SO 38 61.9 12 31.60% 0 19 - 25.6 79.00% 41.2
PUNT RETURNS Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD FC PR SR
Ugochukwu Amadi 5'10, 201 SR 6 19.2 0 3 83.30%
Travis Dye 5'10, 197 FR 2 6 0 0 100.00%
Dillon Mitchell 6'2, 189 JR 2 5 0 0 50.00%
KICK RETURNS Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD FC KR SR
Tony Brooks-James 5'9, 190 SR 8 22.8 0 0 62.50%
Hunter Kampmoyer 6'4, 262 SO 2 0.5 0 0 100.00%
Travis Dye 5'10, 197 FR 1 18 0 0 0.00%

dAWG SPECIALS

SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk
FG value (per kick) -0.31 103
Punt efficiency 47.6% 113
Kickoff efficiency 77.1% 79
Punt return efficiency 41.7% 86
Kick return efficiency 60.0% 27
PLACE-KICKING Kicker Ht, Wt Year PAT % FG % Net Pts/FG
Peyton Henry 5'11, 195 FR 22-22 100.0% 7-10 70.0% -0.30
PUNTING Punter Ht, Wt Year Punts Avg. TB FC I20 Opp. Ret-Avg Punt SR
Net Yds/Punt
Race Porter 6'2, 185 SO 14 40.9 2 0 2 8 - 11.4 42.9% 28.5
Joel Whitford 6'3, 212 JR 7 46.6 1 1 2 4 - 20.0 57.1% 32.3
KICKOFFS Kicker Ht, Wt Year Kickoffs Avg. TB TB% OOB Opp. Ret-Avg Kickoff SR
Net Yds/Kick
Peyton Henry 5'11, 195 FR 34 61.1 16 47.1% 0 14 - 19.6 76.5% 40.1
Sebastian Valerio 5'10, 178 JR 1 46.0 0 0.0% 0 100.0% 46.0
PUNT RETURNS Punt Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD FC PR SR
Aaron Fuller 5'11, 186 JR 11 6.0 0 10 45.5%
Chico McClatcher 5'8, 181 JR 1 0.0 0 1 0.0%
Byron Murphy 5'11, 182 SO 0 NULL 0 3
KICK RETURNS Kick Returner Ht, Wt Year Returns Avg. TD FC KR SR
Myles Gaskin 5'10, 193 SR 4 18.5 0 0 50.0%
Salvon Ahmed 5'11, 195 SO 1 31.0 0 0 100.0%
Sean McGrew 5'7, 174 SO 0 NULL 0 1 NULL

So not a ton of advantages here, except Oregon has been better at punting and returning punts. If the defense can force punts then we should end up with good field position.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

This match up is not as scary as it has been in years past. both teams do things well and both teams seem to have inverse strengths primarily Oregon's passing game Vs. Uw's pass D. problem for Uw is they are not likely to get consistent pressure on Herbert and he will have time to pick apart Uw's DB's. on the other side Oregon really needs to get after browning both keeping him in the pocket and hitting him there. The Ducks can not afford to let him escape and extend drives. If we can force a punt good things will happen for us.

BOLD AND OR DELIRIOUS PREDICTION!!

Uw 21 - Oregon 45

I think we have enough matchups we can exploit.

GOOOOOOOOOOOO DUCKS!!!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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