Happy I Hate washington Week every one!!! I hope every one had a good bye week and is in full panic mode for the game Saturday. so in the past 2 weeks with a 3 week old baby and 14 month old twins with some sinus junk going on. I have been averaging about 4 hours of sleep per night with no more than 2 continuous hours of sleep at any one time.
Ugh, I am gonna die
Thankfully we have a membership with sam's club so my pantry is fully stocked with sugar free Red Bull.
Nectar of the gods
Needless to say if you disagree with my rants or analysis this week you can chalk it up to my lack of sleep, but if you agree with me. Then what the hell is wrong with you?
Watching the news and politics right now is terrible. We need something to bring the world together, like our Hatred of those dirty dawgs up north in seattle. so I say in the name of world peace let the world focus all our hate for this one week on Uw.
NOW ON TO THE STATS!!!
Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.
in case you have any questions on definitions or from where I am getting my info I have provided links below to stats glossary, and to both Ducks and Uw dawgs stats provided by Bill Connelly.
Ducks Overall S&P+ | S&P+ Rk: | 34 | dawgs Overall S&P+ | S&P+ Rk: | 10 |
Off. S&P+ Rk: | 16 | Off. S&P+ Rk: | 29 | ||
Def. S&P+ Rk: | 80 | Def. S&P+ Rk: | 7 | ||
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: | 83 | Special Teams S&P+ Rk: | 110 | ||
Résumé S&P+ Rk: | 38 | Résumé S&P+ Rk: | 22 | ||
Strength of Schedule Rk: | 111 | Strength of Schedule Rk: | 64 |
So looking at the numbers Uw dropped a little this last week after their dreadful performance against the previously hapless UCLA Bruins. They dropped in all 3 phases of the game from last weeks numbers. I made a point in last weeks quack fixes that washington had played no one that had a pulse on offense. That is still mostly true this week, although ASU did jump up to 38th in Off. S&P+. otherwise their opponents ranged from 71st to 106th. the reason I brought this up last week is every one was saying how amazing their defense was, and yet they hadn't seen an offense nearly as good as ours. where as our offense has faced several at the time "top 10" defenses. Cal still rates as a top 6 defense even after their Arizona debacle last saturday. I would be remiss if I did not point out that our defense has also not played an offense as good as Uw's. As our best opponent on that side was Stanford, currently sitting at 56th in off. S&P+ and we all remember that game. The S&P Projected margin for this game nearly dropped in half from 11.4 points last week to 6.4 this week. So Overall S&P does pick Uw to win, but lets dig in further and see where we need to perform better and eek out a win.
Five Factors
Duck FIVE FACTORS | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
EFFICIENCY | Success Rate* | 48.70% | 21 | 38.70% | 49 | |
Marginal Efficiency* | 1.70% | 19 | -5.60% | 56 | ||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP* | 1.25 | 35 | 1.24 | 88 | |
Marginal Explosiveness* | 0.16 | 24 | 0.12 | 89 | ||
FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 33.4 | 13 | 28.7 | 64 | |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opp. | 5.15 | 32 | 4.46 | 67 | |
TURNOVERS | Expected TO Margin | 1.9 | 41 | TO Luck (PPG): | -0.9 | |
Actual TO Margin | 1 | 50 | ||||
dawg FIVE FACTORS | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
EFFICIENCY | Success Rate* | 46.10% | 33 | 37.50% | 31 | |
Marginal Efficiency* | -1.00% | 38 | -8.80% | 20 | ||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP* | 1.15 | 82 | 0.93 | 4 | |
Marginal Explosiveness* | 0.05 | 74 | -0.17 | 6 | ||
FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 30 | 69 | 29 | 68 | |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opp. | 4.61 | 71 | 3.36 | 10 | |
TURNOVERS | Expected TO Margin | 3.9 | 16 | TO Luck (PPG): | -4.1 | |
Actual TO Margin | -1 | 76 |
Some interesting stuff here. Our offense is pretty efficient and we don't rely on explosive plays to get our points but we do hit the explosive plays enough to keep opponents honest. Uw does not give up explosive plays and forces offenses to be patient and execute to get points. The Ducks special teams and luck have helped us with field position on offense. but both our defenses have almost identical starting field positions. Oregon so far for the season has much better turnover luck and that could be a major key to a win on Saturday.
THE BASICS
Ducks Offense Vs dawgs Defense | DUCK | dAWG | DUCK | dAWG | ||||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | |||||||||
RUSHING | Rushing marginal efficiency* | -4.40% | 39 | -10.30% | 48 | PASSING | Passing marginal efficiency* | 9.60% | 9 | -7.40% | 17 | |||||
Rushing marginal explosiveness* | -0.08 | 66 | -0.17 | 35 | Passing marginal explosiveness* | 47.40% | 15 | -17.30% | 1 | |||||||
Opportunity rate* | 48.30% | 51 | 47.10% | 82 | Passing completion rate* | 63.00% | 41 | 64.40% | 111 | |||||||
Stuff rate* | 15.10% | 21 | 14.90% | 116 | Sack rate* | 4.50% | 38 | 3.70% | 116 | |||||||
DUCK | dAWG | DUCK | dAWG | |||||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | |||||||||
STANDARD DOWNS | SD marginal efficiency* | -1.30% | 43 | -7.10% | 45 | PASSING DOWNS | PD marginal efficiency* | 9.00% | 9 | -12.20% | 8 | |||||
SD marginal explosiveness* | 0.13 | 31 | -0.24 | 3 | PD marginal explosiveness* | 0.26 | 33 | 0.06 | 61 | |||||||
SD line yards per carry* | 2.45 | 75 | 2.63 | 92 | PD line yards per carry* | 2.62 | 69 | 3.1 | 105 | |||||||
SD sack rate* | 6.70% | 95 | 0.00% | 130 | PD sack rate* | 1.70% | 5 | 8.80% | 57 | |||||||
dawgs Offense VS Ducks Defense | dAWG | DUCK | dAWG | DUCK | ||||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | |||||||||
RUSHING | Rushing marginal efficiency* | -5.40% | 53 | -9.70% | 55 | PASSING | Passing marginal efficiency* | 4.20% | 29 | -1.70% | 62 | |||||
Rushing marginal explosiveness* | -0.21 | 109 | -0.16 | 40 | Passing marginal explosiveness* | 34.60% | 29 | 33.40% | 106 | |||||||
Opportunity rate* | 49.30% | 42 | 43.60% | 40 | Passing completion rate* | 68.00% | 16 | 55.60% | 33 | |||||||
Stuff rate* | 17.20% | 44 | 22.60% | 30 | Sack rate* | 5.90% | 56 | 9.20% | 17 | |||||||
dAWG | DUCK | dAWG | DUCK | |||||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | |||||||||
STANDARD DOWNS | SD marginal efficiency* | -1.10% | 41 | -4.40% | 78 | PASSING DOWNS | PD marginal efficiency* | -0.70% | 43 | -8.10% | 31 | |||||
SD marginal explosiveness* | 0.08 | 54 | 0.08 | 78 | PD marginal explosiveness* | -0.09 | 103 | 0.26 | 105 | |||||||
SD line yards per carry* | 2.51 | 68 | 2.07 | 24 | PD line yards per carry* | 2.66 | 67 | 2.78 | 75 | |||||||
SD sack rate* | 4.20% | 54 | 7.10% | 29 | PD sack rate* | 8.10% | 75 | 12.30% | 20 |
Ok, liking what I see here. first stats that jump out to me. Our passing offense vs dawgs pass defense. although the dawgs don't give up big plays, they also get no pressure on the passer. that plays right in to our hands. If they can't get to Herbert he will exploit what the defense gives him all day long. it looks like we will be able to move the ball against them on the ground as well and that is our primary strength for this game. the dawgs will have less, but similar success passing. we should have a pretty clear cut advantage in running the ball and limiting their running. hopefully we have improved our quarterback draw defense as that seems to be Browning's go to if we start to get to him with the pass rush.
BILL WALSH STATS
DUCKS Offense vs. dAWGS Defense | DUCKS | dAWGS | DUCKS | dAWGS | |||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
OPEN PLAY | Standard Downs success rate | 50.30% | 41 | 45.00% | 56 | THIRD DOWN | Third-and-long percentage | 43.10% | 23 | 36.60% | 128 |
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd | 62.20% | 112 | 52.10% | 1 | Third-and-short percentage | 16.70% | 12 | 13.90% | 112 | ||
Big-play rate (20+ yards) | 12.10% | 8 | 3.90% | 5 | Third-and-long success rate | 41.90% | 5 | 35.10% | 121 | ||
Avg. third-down distance | 6.5 | 15 | 6.1 | 124 | Third-and-medium success rate | 44.80% | 88 | 40.00% | 32 | ||
Third down success rate | 56.00% | 5 | 46.20% | 115 | Third-and-short success rate | 91.70% | 20 | 78.60% | 77 | ||
DUCKS | dAWGS | ||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | DUCKS | dAWGS | ||||||
BACKED UP | Backed up success rate | 53.90% | 31 | 33.30% | 56 | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
Backed up turnover rate | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 15 | RED ZONE | 21- to 30-yard line success rate | 41.50% | 73 | 28.10% | 12 | |
DUCKS | dAWGS | 11- to 20-yard line success rate | 50.00% | 26 | 31.00% | 34 | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Inside 10 success rate | 56.80% | 45 | 40.70% | 29 | |||
BLITZ DOWNS | Blitz down success rate | 44.70% | 5 | 33.80% | 104 | Inside 10 turnover rate | 8.10% | 126 | 0.00% | 42 | |
Blitz down big-play rate | 19.20% | 4 | 8.80% | 76 | First-and-goal success rate | 53.30% | 74 | 33.30% | 19 | ||
Blitz down sack rate | 4.60% | 28 | 9.80% | 61 | Goal line success rate | 80.00% | 28 | 50.00% | 23 | ||
dAWGS Offense vs. DUCKS Defense | dAWGS | DUCKS | dAWGS | DUCKS | |||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
OPEN PLAY | Standard Downs success rate | 53.30% | 22 | 42.10% | 33 | THIRD DOWN | Third-and-long percentage | 48.20% | 59 | 50.70% | 68 |
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd | 70.30% | 60 | 70.70% | 90 | Third-and-short percentage | 10.80% | 60 | 12.30% | 90 | ||
Big-play rate (20+ yards) | 9.80% | 28 | 7.10% | 58 | Third-and-long success rate | 25.00% | 69 | 18.90% | 34 | ||
Avg. third-down distance | 8.3 | 114 | 7.3 | 85 | Third-and-medium success rate | 76.50% | 1 | 37.00% | 19 | ||
Third down success rate | 53.60% | 8 | 29.10% | 17 | Third-and-short success rate | 77.80% | 57 | 88.90% | 110 | ||
dAWGS | DUCKS | ||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | dAWGS | DUCKS | ||||||
BACKED UP | Backed up success rate | 20.00% | 105 | 71.40% | 121 | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
Backed up turnover rate | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 15 | RED ZONE | 21- to 30-yard line success rate | 46.00% | 48 | 51.70% | 111 | |
dAWGS | DUCKS | 11- to 20-yard line success rate | 46.30% | 36 | 36.00% | 58 | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Inside 10 success rate | 46.70% | 95 | 38.10% | 24 | |||
BLITZ DOWNS | Blitz down success rate | 30.40% | 64 | 22.60% | 28 | Inside 10 turnover rate | 2.20% | 91 | 0.00% | 42 | |
Blitz down big-play rate | 5.40% | 105 | 9.40% | 84 | First-and-goal success rate | 43.80% | 95 | 42.90% | 45 | ||
Blitz down sack rate | 7.30% | 48 | 17.10% | 16 | Goal line success rate | 46.70% | 111 | 50.00% | 23 |
I am seeing a repeating trend supported by these numbers, the Ducks are good when they keep Herbert clean. Uw's defense does really well on first down, but kind of peters out on 3rd down and has little to no pass rush. unlike previous stats Oregon's defense does quite well on third down.
DUCK INDIVIDUAL STATS | |||||||||||||
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD-INT | Comp Rate | Yards/Comp | Sack Rate | Yards/Att. | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Justin Herbert | 6'6, 233 | JR | 88 | 136 | 1411 | 15-5 | 64.70% | 16 | 4.90% | 9.5 | 10.30% | 0.57 | |
Braxton Burmeister | 6'1, 206 | SO | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0-0 | 50.00% | 6.8 | 0.00% | 3.4 | -16.50% | -0.86 | |
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Yards | Yards/Carry | TD | Hlt Yds/Opp | Opp Rate | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | Fum (lost) | |
CJ Verdell | RB | 5'9, 201 | FR | 68 | 420 | 6.2 | 2 | 6.27 | 51.50% | 2.50% | -0.02 | 1 (1) | |
Travis Dye | RB | 5'10, 197 | FR | 46 | 250 | 5.4 | 2 | 6.11 | 43.50% | 0.10% | -0.03 | 1 (1) | |
Tony Brooks-James | RB | 5'9, 190 | SR | 42 | 200 | 4.8 | 3 | 3.28 | 54.80% | 5.70% | -0.03 | 0 (0) | |
Justin Herbert | QB | 6'6, 233 | JR | 26 | 158 | 6.1 | 1 | 6.05 | 57.70% | 1.90% | -0.05 | 2 (0) | |
Darrian Felix | RB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | 2.43 | 42.90% | -8.40% | -0.17 | 0 (0) | |
Cyrus Habibi-Likio | RB | 6'1, 210 | FR | 13 | 16 | 1.2 | 6 | 1.97 | 23.10% | 17.50% | -0.04 | 1 (0) | |
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Catches | Yards | TD | Catch Rate | Yds/Catch | Yds/Target | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | |
Dillon Mitchell | WR | 6'2, 189 | JR | 38 | 27 | 442 | 2 | 71.10% | 16.4 | 11.6 | 24.20% | 0.32 | |
Johnny Johnson III | WR | 6'0, 197 | SO | 20 | 10 | 177 | 4 | 50.00% | 17.7 | 8.9 | 8.20% | 0.66 | |
Jaylon Redd | WR | 5'8, 178 | SO | 13 | 9 | 168 | 3 | 69.20% | 18.7 | 12.9 | 19.40% | 0.97 | |
Jacob Breeland | TE | 6'5, 248 | JR | 12 | 7 | 131 | 2 | 58.30% | 18.7 | 10.9 | -13.00% | 1.56 | |
CJ Verdell | RB | 5'9, 201 | FR | 11 | 9 | 112 | 0 | 81.80% | 12.4 | 10.2 | 17.80% | 0.28 | |
Kano Dillon | TE | 6'5, 265 | SR | 11 | 5 | 77 | 2 | 45.50% | 15.4 | 7 | -2.40% | 0.87 | |
Brenden Schooler | WR | 6'2, 193 | JR | 8 | 6 | 57 | 0 | 75.00% | 9.5 | 7.1 | 7.00% | -0.14 | |
Tabari Hines | WR | 5'10, 175 | SR | 5 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 60.00% | 10.7 | 6.4 | 4.80% | 0.8 | |
Tony Brooks-James | RB | 5'9, 190 | SR | 4 | 3 | 73 | 0 | 75.00% | 24.3 | 18.3 | 39.50% | 0.62 | |
Travis Dye | RB | 5'10, 197 | FR | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 100.00% | 8 | 8 | 30.60% | -0.4 | |
Taj Griffin | RB | 5'11, 178 | SR | 3 | 2 | 89 | 1 | 66.70% | 44.5 | 29.7 | 24.20% | 2.91 | |
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | TFLs | Sacks | Run Stuffs | INT (PBU) | FF | Yards/Play | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | |
(defense-only -- no special teams tackles) | Troy Dye | ILB | 6'4, 224 | JR | 23.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 (2) | 0 | 4.7 | -1.10% | -0.24 |
Justin Hollins | OLB | 6'5, 242 | SR | 21.5 | 8 | 4 | 8.5 | 1 (4) | 3 | 1.2 | -12.70% | -0.22 | |
Kaulana Apelu | ILB | 5'10, 208 | SR | 21.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 0 (3) | 0 | 2.9 | -14.50% | -0.37 | |
Ugochukwu Amadi | S | 5'10, 201 | SR | 20 | 2 | 1.5 | 4 | 3 (5) | 0 | 8.3 | 14.90% | -0.05 | |
Jalen Jelks | DE | 6'6, 245 | SR | 18.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 0 (1) | 1 | 1.8 | -12.40% | -0.22 | |
Gary Baker | DL | 6'3, 310 | JR | 14.5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3.7 | -22.20% | -0.17 | |
Thomas Graham Jr. | CB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (6) | 0 | 14.9 | 43.50% | 0.41 | |
Jordon Scott | DL | 6'1, 329 | SO | 12.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 6 | 0 (1) | 0 | 0.7 | -33.50% | -0.55 | |
Deommodore Lenoir | CB | 5'11, 196 | SO | 12.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (2) | 0 | 17.8 | 45.90% | 0.29 | |
Jevon Holland | S | 6'1, 192 | FR | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 (2) | 0 | 13.1 | 40.70% | 0.13 | |
Isaac Slade-Matautia | ILB | 6'1, 220 | FR | 10.5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) | 0 | 7.2 | -5.30% | 0.3 | |
Nick Pickett | S | 6'1, 200 | SO | 10.5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 (1) | 0 | 13.9 | 36.10% | 0.24 | |
Austin Faoliu | DL | 6'3, 285 | SO | 10.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 (1) | 0 | 2.6 | -20.40% | -0.59 | |
La'Mar Winston Jr. | OLB | 6'2, 233 | JR | 7.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.9 | 7.30% | -0.38 | |
Drayton Carlberg | DL | 6'5, 282 | JR | 7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 0 (0) | 1 | -1.3 | -32.40% | -0.8 | |
Keith Simms | OLB | 6'3, 227 | SO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 5.9 | 6.80% | -0.16 | |
Gus Cumberlander | DL | 6'7, 251 | JR | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 (0) | 0 | -1 | -29.70% | NULL | |
Adrian Jackson | ILB | 6'2, 218 | FR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1 | -37.90% | NULL | |
Mattrell McGraw | S | 5'10, 196 | SR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3 | -45.50% | NULL | |
Popo Aumavae | DL | 6'3, 303 | FR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 0.3 | -10.50% | -0.3 |
dAWG INDIVIDUAL STATS | |||||||||||||
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD-INT | Comp Rate | Yards/Comp | Sack Rate | Yards/Att. | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Jake Browning | 6'2, 210 | SR | 111 | 166 | 1508 | 9-5 | 66.90% | 13.6 | 5.70% | 8.1 | 8.30% | 0.31 | |
Jake Haener | 6'0, 196 | FR | 7 | 7 | 110 | 1-0 | 100.00% | 15.7 | 0.00% | 15.7 | 44.50% | 0.59 | |
Andre Baccellia | 5'10, 173 | JR | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0-1 | 50.00% | 14 | 0.00% | 7 | 10.50% | 0.03 | |
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Yards | Yards/Carry | TD | Hlt Yds/Opp | Opp Rate | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | Fum (lost) | |
Myles Gaskin | TB | 5'10, 193 | SR | 124 | 554 | 4.5 | 5 | 3.89 | 47.60% | -2.20% | -0.02 | 0 (0) | |
Salvon Ahmed | TB | 5'11, 195 | SO | 40 | 258 | 6.5 | 2 | 5.48 | 60.00% | 10.90% | -0.03 | 1 (0) | |
Jake Browning | QB | 6'2, 210 | SR | 29 | 131 | 4.5 | 3 | 3.56 | 51.70% | 17.00% | -0.04 | 0 (0) | |
Kamari Pleasant | TB | 6'0, 204 | SO | 12 | 75 | 6.3 | 1 | 5.39 | 58.30% | 12.30% | -0.09 | 0 (0) | |
Sean McGrew | TB | 5'7, 174 | SO | 11 | 58 | 5.3 | 1 | 3.83 | 63.60% | -2.70% | -0.26 | 0 (0) | |
Chico McClatcher | WR | 5'8, 181 | JR | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 3.3 | 25.00% | -16.20% | -0.84 | 0 (0) | |
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Catches | Yards | TD | Catch Rate | Yds/Catch | Yds/Target | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | |
Aaron Fuller | WR | 5'11, 186 | JR | 53 | 35 | 574 | 2 | 66.00% | 16.4 | 10.8 | 13.80% | 0.42 | |
Ty Jones | WR | 6'4, 209 | SO | 26 | 14 | 267 | 4 | 53.80% | 19.1 | 10.3 | 5.60% | 0.67 | |
Andre Baccellia | WR | 5'10, 173 | JR | 19 | 16 | 197 | 0 | 84.20% | 12.3 | 10.4 | 18.10% | 0.01 | |
Myles Gaskin | TB | 5'10, 193 | SR | 16 | 11 | 48 | 0 | 68.80% | 4.4 | 3 | -4.00% | -0.46 | |
Drew Sample | TE | 6'5, 251 | SR | 15 | 12 | 112 | 1 | 80.00% | 9.3 | 7.5 | 12.50% | -0.08 | |
Quinten Pounds | WR | 6'0, 180 | JR | 12 | 8 | 166 | 1 | 66.70% | 20.8 | 13.8 | 13.70% | 0.87 | |
Chico McClatcher | WR | 5'8, 181 | JR | 9 | 8 | 119 | 0 | 88.90% | 14.9 | 13.2 | 29.80% | 0.54 | |
Salvon Ahmed | TB | 5'11, 195 | SO | 8 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 100.00% | 8.5 | 8.5 | 12.90% | -0.19 | |
Cade Otton | TE | 6'5, 249 | FR | 4 | 4 | 41 | 2 | 100.00% | 10.3 | 10.3 | 12.20% | 0.27 | |
Sean McGrew | TB | 5'7, 174 | SO | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 100.00% | 7 | 7 | 12.30% | -0.18 | |
Alex Cook | WR | 6'1, 193 | FR | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 | 100.00% | 26 | 26 | 33.30% | 1.81 | |
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | TFLs | Sacks | Run Stuffs | INT (PBU) | FF | Yards/Play | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | |
(defense-only -- no special teams tackles) | Ben Burr-Kirven | LB | 6'0, 221 | SR | 55.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 (1) | 3 | 5.4 | -1.20% | -0.38 |
Myles Bryant | DB | 5'8, 182 | JR | 27.5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 (3) | 1 | 3.9 | -1.10% | -0.23 | |
Tevis Bartlett | LB | 6'3, 233 | SR | 23.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (1) | 1 | 6.7 | 6.70% | -0.1 | |
Byron Murphy | DB | 5'11, 182 | SO | 21 | 3 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 (9) | 1 | 11.3 | 15.80% | 0.46 | |
JoJo McIntosh | DB | 6'1, 205 | SR | 19.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (2) | 0 | 7.3 | 26.00% | -0.41 | |
Taylor Rapp | DB | 6'0, 200 | JR | 17.5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 (1) | 0 | 9.2 | 26.90% | 0.15 | |
Jaylen Johnson | DL | 6'3, 286 | SR | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) | 0 | 2.7 | -22.40% | -0.22 | |
Benning Potoa'e | OLB | 6'3, 277 | JR | 14 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1.2 | -25.70% | -0.57 | |
Greg Gaines | DL | 6'2, 316 | SR | 14 | 1.5 | 1 | 4.5 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1.9 | -19.00% | -0.68 | |
Jordan Miller | DB | 6'1, 181 | SR | 13.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 (4) | 2 | 10.7 | 15.70% | 0.18 | |
Levi Onwuzurike | DL | 6'3, 282 | SO | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 (0) | 0 | 2.5 | -22.70% | -0.17 | |
Ariel Ngata | OLB | 6'2, 217 | FR | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 1 | 3.9 | -15.70% | 0.03 | |
Ryan Bowman | OLB | 6'0, 263 | SO | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.4 | -12.10% | -0.4 | |
DJ Beavers | LB | 6'1, 219 | JR | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.5 | -21.10% | -0.05 | |
Elijah Molden | DB | 5'11, 190 | SO | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.9 | 19.00% | -0.58 | |
Jake Wambaugh | LB | 6'2, 224 | SR | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.5 | 0.20% | -0.21 | |
Kyler Manu | LB | 6'1, 238 | JR | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.1 | -15.40% | -0.19 | |
Amandre Williams | OLB | 6'2, 241 | SO | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (1) | 0 | 4.8 | -9.70% | -0.6 | |
Shane Bowman | DL | 6'4, 291 | SR | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 (1) | 1 | 1.9 | -24.60% | -0.06 | |
Josiah Bronson | DL | 6'3, 280 | JR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3.9 | -20.50% | -0.85 |
a few things here, it looks like Uw has had similar issues with people catching balls thrown. I don't know whose fault it is for them, but I put most of the blame from the Ducks drops on the receivers. Herbert tends to attempt and complete longer passes than Browning. Arron Fuller is their top target passing but he is not probably as dangerous for us as Ty Jones will be because of height. Uw has the height in their playmakers to exploit our defensive weaknesses. none of their runners are super scary at face value. we just have to be careful to not get exploited when we are looking for the pass and they run it.
DUCK PRINTS
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg | DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg |
Standard Downs run rate* | 65.40% | 23 | 59.10% | Standard Downs run rate* | 54.80% | 94 | 58.70% | ||
Passing Downs run rate* | 33.70% | 66 | 34.40% | Passing Downs run rate* | 35.20% | 59 | 34.40% | ||
Adj. Pace** | -3.23 | 10 | 0 | Overall Havoc Rate | 21.70% | 8 | 16.50% | ||
% of Solo Tackles | 72.90% | 69 | 72.80% | DL Havoc Rate | 5.50% | 54 | 5.20% | ||
Havoc Rate Allowed | 13.10% | 29 | 15.50% | LB Havoc Rate | 9.10% | 2 | 4.70% | ||
** Adj. Pace is presented as the difference between a team's tempo (seconds per play) and the tempo expected based on their run-pass rate. | DB Havoc Rate | 7.10% | 58 | 6.70% | |||||
PD to INC | 52.90% | 1 | 34.60% |
dAWG PRINTS
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg | DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg |
Standard Downs run rate* | 63.90% | 31 | 59.10% | Standard Downs run rate* | 55.30% | 89 | 58.70% | ||
Passing Downs run rate* | 30.80% | 82 | 34.40% | Passing Downs run rate* | 32.80% | 75 | 34.40% | ||
Adj. Pace** | 2.09 | 107 | 0 | Overall Havoc Rate | 14.40% | 105 | 16.50% | ||
% of Solo Tackles | 79.10% | 22 | 72.80% | DL Havoc Rate | 1.40% | 127 | 5.20% | ||
Havoc Rate Allowed | 13.80% | 39 | 15.50% | LB Havoc Rate | 3.90% | 81 | 4.70% | ||
** Adj. Pace is presented as the difference between a team's tempo (seconds per play) | DB Havoc Rate | 9.10% | 9 | 6.70% | |||||
and the tempo expected based on their run-pass rate. | PD to INC | 36.20% | 55 | 34.60% |
Uw tends to move a lot slower pace wise, but they do a good job of getting their playmakers in 1v1 situations. our defense does a better job in causing pressure. especially on passing downs. our linebackers are scarry and their DB's look good.
DUCKS SPECIALS
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Category | Rate | Rk | ||||||||
FG value (per kick) | -0.87 | 125 | |||||||||
Punt efficiency | 70.00% | 33 | |||||||||
Kickoff efficiency | 79.00% | 73 | |||||||||
Punt return efficiency | 81.80% | 6 | |||||||||
Kick return efficiency | 69.20% | 16 | |||||||||
PLACE-KICKING | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | % | FG | % | Net Pts/FG | |||
Adam Stack | 6'2, 182 | SO | 10-10 | 100.00% | 1-2 | 50.00% | -0.44 | ||||
Zach Emerson | 6'2, 214 | SO | 21-22 | 95.50% | 0-1 | 0.00% | -1.69 | ||||
PUNTING | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg. | TB | FC | I20 | Opp. Ret-Avg | Punt SR | |
Tom Snee | 6'3, 205 | FR | 11 | 36.5 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 1 - 35.0 | 54.50% | 33.4 | |
Blake Maimone | 6'6, 227 | JR | 9 | 43.6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 - 2.3 | 88.90% | 42.8 | |
KICKOFFS | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg. | TB | TB% | OOB | Opp. Ret-Avg | Kickoff SR | |
Zach Emerson | 6'2, 214 | SO | 38 | 61.9 | 12 | 31.60% | 0 | 19 - 25.6 | 79.00% | 41.2 | |
PUNT RETURNS | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | FC | PR SR | |||
Ugochukwu Amadi | 5'10, 201 | SR | 6 | 19.2 | 0 | 3 | 83.30% | ||||
Travis Dye | 5'10, 197 | FR | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | ||||
Dillon Mitchell | 6'2, 189 | JR | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 50.00% | ||||
KICK RETURNS | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | FC | KR SR | |||
Tony Brooks-James | 5'9, 190 | SR | 8 | 22.8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50% | ||||
Hunter Kampmoyer | 6'4, 262 | SO | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | ||||
Travis Dye | 5'10, 197 | FR | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
dAWG SPECIALS
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Category | Rate | Rk | ||||||||
FG value (per kick) | -0.31 | 103 | |||||||||
Punt efficiency | 47.6% | 113 | |||||||||
Kickoff efficiency | 77.1% | 79 | |||||||||
Punt return efficiency | 41.7% | 86 | |||||||||
Kick return efficiency | 60.0% | 27 | |||||||||
PLACE-KICKING | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | PAT | % | FG | % | Net Pts/FG | |||
Peyton Henry | 5'11, 195 | FR | 22-22 | 100.0% | 7-10 | 70.0% | -0.30 | ||||
PUNTING | Punter | Ht, Wt | Year | Punts | Avg. | TB | FC | I20 | Opp. Ret-Avg | Punt SR | |
Race Porter | 6'2, 185 | SO | 14 | 40.9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 - 11.4 | 42.9% | 28.5 | |
Joel Whitford | 6'3, 212 | JR | 7 | 46.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 - 20.0 | 57.1% | 32.3 | |
KICKOFFS | Kicker | Ht, Wt | Year | Kickoffs | Avg. | TB | TB% | OOB | Opp. Ret-Avg | Kickoff SR | |
Peyton Henry | 5'11, 195 | FR | 34 | 61.1 | 16 | 47.1% | 0 | 14 - 19.6 | 76.5% | 40.1 | |
Sebastian Valerio | 5'10, 178 | JR | 1 | 46.0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 100.0% | 46.0 | ||
PUNT RETURNS | Punt Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | FC | PR SR | |||
Aaron Fuller | 5'11, 186 | JR | 11 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 | 45.5% | ||||
Chico McClatcher | 5'8, 181 | JR | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | ||||
Byron Murphy | 5'11, 182 | SO | 0 | NULL | 0 | 3 | |||||
KICK RETURNS | Kick Returner | Ht, Wt | Year | Returns | Avg. | TD | FC | KR SR | |||
Myles Gaskin | 5'10, 193 | SR | 4 | 18.5 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | ||||
Salvon Ahmed | 5'11, 195 | SO | 1 | 31.0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | ||||
Sean McGrew | 5'7, 174 | SO | 0 | NULL | 0 | 1 | NULL |
So not a ton of advantages here, except Oregon has been better at punting and returning punts. If the defense can force punts then we should end up with good field position.
SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
This match up is not as scary as it has been in years past. both teams do things well and both teams seem to have inverse strengths primarily Oregon's passing game Vs. Uw's pass D. problem for Uw is they are not likely to get consistent pressure on Herbert and he will have time to pick apart Uw's DB's. on the other side Oregon really needs to get after browning both keeping him in the pocket and hitting him there. The Ducks can not afford to let him escape and extend drives. If we can force a punt good things will happen for us.
BOLD AND OR DELIRIOUS PREDICTION!!
Uw 21 - Oregon 45
I think we have enough matchups we can exploit.
GOOOOOOOOOOOO DUCKS!!!!
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