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Know Thy Enemy: UCLA Bruins

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NCAA Football: Oregon at Arizona
These guys need some work.
Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

The Bruins travel to Eugene to take on a flailing Ducks squad. What kind of team are they? What kind of program does old friend Chip Kelly run?

2018 Record: 2-6 (2-3)

Key Numbers + Info (2018 season)

OOC Opponents: Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Fresno State

Points per game: 21.25

Points allowed per game: 32.50

Avg. yards per rush: 4.0

Avg. yards per rush allowed: 4.6

Avg. rush yards per game: 147.5

Avg. rush yards per game allowed: 209.3

Rushing TDs: 11 for, 24 against

Avg. pass yards per game: 198.63

Avg. pass yards per game allowed: 209.3

Passing TDs: 8 for, 9 against

Collective Pass Completion Rate: 59%

Collective Pass Completion Rate Against: 60%

Leading Rusher: Joshua Kelley (120 carries for 659 yards and 6 TDs)

Leading Receiver: Caleb Wilson (34 receptions for 479 yards and 1 TD)

Leading Tackler: Adarius Pickett (84 tackles)

Leader in Sacks: Keisean Lucier-South (4.0)

Analysis

  • The Bruins have a 54 to 46 run to pass ratio, which isn’t surprising given their multitude of quarterback issues. The opponents come in with a whopping 60 to 40 run to pass ratio. This could be due to the leads that they have gained on the Bruins and are just salting away the lead.
  • UCLA has run a very un-Chip Kelly like 545 plays to the opponents’ 607.
  • The Bruins have been dominated in the yardage total by a tally of 3,448 to 2,769.
  • The highest point total they have put up is 37 against Cal. The lowest being 10 in a loss to Utah.

Key prospects to watch

1. Caleb Wilson 6’5 235 TE RS Junior

- The leading receiver for the Bruins. Not the most athletic at his position but is serviceable enough to scare opposing defenses. Solid route runner that knows how to get open. Uses guile to get open instead of relying on athleticism to do so. This will play in the NFL.

2. Theo Howard 6’0 180 WR Junior

- Howard is the second leading receiver in terms of yards. He’s like any vertical deep threat. When he’s given free reign off the line, it’s pretty much over. When defenses muscle up on him with press coverage, he struggles. Excellent arsenal of feints and counters to get him open.

Keys to an Oregon win

  • Run game. UCLA has been terrible defending the run in conference play, giving up an average of 230 yards and 2.6 touchdowns per game. Pac-12 teams outside of Cal have basically run at will on them. Oregon has a competent stable of backs to accomplish the same. The run game will be heavily leaned upon given Justin Herbert’s unknown status. Even the sheer incompetence and moronic stubbornness of OC Marcus Arroyo should call successful run plays against this defense.
  • Pass defense. They have given up a total of 27 sacks, including SIX to an absurdly horrid Oklahoma defense earlier in the year (seriously, a high school team could’ve put up 30 on the Sooners.) The Ducks defense showed up last week and tackled very well all over the field until they were forced to capitulate due to an underwhelming offense not helping. The front seven will be needed to generate some pressure regardless of who the Bruins decide to play at QB. The secondary should have it easy with only two weapons to seriously cover. The top receivers have accounted for nearly all of the receiving stats. Combined, they have outdone their next seven receivers.
  • Consistency. I haven’t seen a complete effort from the Ducks entire team yet. UCLA may not be talented enough to beat the Ducks but even they can catch the youth of this team napping. Any consistent effort will be much appreciated from all three phases of the game. The Ducks are more solid in their efforts at home so that’s a good thing.

Keys to an Oregon loss

  • Trenches. As esteemed colleague Hylothday pointed out, the offensive line play has been awful without the services of Penei Sewell. The defensive line can’t generate any pressure lately and has let opposing quarterbacks dominate them. OL coach Alex Mirabal and DL coach Joe Salave’a need to get their players in order. Far too often we have seen both sides get 0 push or get pushed off the ball. Every game, center Jake Hanson has difficulties snapping the ball.
  • Offensive scheme. OC Marcus Arroyo has been wildly inconsistent and very stubborn about the play calls. It seems like that he has no sense of game flow and sticks to his plan even when it’s not working. Either he or Mario Cristobal refuse to make in game adjustments to counter what the defense is doing. The next time they make an adjustment will be the first. The offensive play calling is borderline insane / comically predictable. Either Arroyo learns how to adjust or he has to leave his post.

What are the odds?

The WestGate Superbook has Oregon as 10.5 point favorites. O/U is set at 62.5. The money line is Oregon -410 Arizona +310

William Hill has Oregon as 10.5 point favorites. O/U is set at 62. The money line is Oregon -405 Arizona +325

MyBookie.ag has Oregon as 10.5 point favorites. O/U is set at 62.5. The money line is Oregon -400 Arizona +317

Score Prediction

Oregon 35 Team Brubonic Plague 24