FanPost

Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such UCLA 2018

Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

So I have had a slammed week this week. I will keep it shorter than usual. with all the unknowns about whom is playing where and what. both teams numbers are deceptive at best and ATQ has some great break downs of why the numbers don't tell the whole story as much as the film.

Halloween was fun, we got a late start Trick or Treating as there was a cold front / thunderstorm that blew in right at 6PM. We had all the kids dressed like characters from Ghost busters. We had the oldest dressed like one of the Ghost busters, then we had the boy twin dressed as the stay puft marshmallow man, the girl twin was their car, and the baby was Slimer. I pulled the twins in a wagon and the wife had the baby wrapped to her. The oldest did the dirty work of knocking and saying Trick or Treat then thanking the person once the candy is acquired. it's amazing how many kids do not say thank you now a days. GET OFF MY LAWN!!!

On To the Stats

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2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

2018 Duck and Bruin S&P

Ducks S&P Overall UCLA S&P Overall
S&P+ Rk: 53 S&P+ Rk: 93
Off. S&P+ Rk: 32 Off. S&P+ Rk: 90
Def. S&P+ Rk: 76 Def. S&P+ Rk: 94
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 75 Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 18
Résumé S&P+ Rk: 52 Résumé S&P+ Rk: 78
Strength of Schedule Rk: 59 Strength of Schedule Rk: 1

The overall numbers say we should win this game handily. it also said that last week. This week we are 10.6 point favorite by S&P.

Duck Factors Offense Rk Defense Rk
Bruin Factors Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 44.20% 47 41.20% 70
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 38.40% 108 47.50% 118
Marginal Efficiency* -2.60% 52 -5.50% 52
Marginal Efficiency* -6.80% 106 -2.40% 93
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.15 85 1.16 64
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.08 110 1.07 31
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.07 59 0.09 83
Marginal Explosiveness* -0.02 106 0.03 63
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 31.8 28 29.5 73
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 26.1 124 32.6 121
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.93 41 4.63 78
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.53 74 5.06 109
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin -0.1 75 TO Luck (PPG): 0.7
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 0.8 68 TO Luck (PPG): 2
Actual TO Margin 1 64
Actual TO Margin 4 31

The numbers say our offense has fallen off a cliff, but it should still be better than UCLA if Herbert suits up. The ducks Defense is better than the UCLA Defense at every thing other than limiting explosive plays. if we had asked for a team to face coming off of 2 back to back ugly losses at home, this UCLA team is the one we want.

I am going to stop at this point and summarize.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

As I was alluding to in the prologue. None of this means any thing if the same team that got beat last week in Arizona shows up in Eugene. We have been capable of amazing things when the team executes. We have been capable of horrible things when the team doesn't. What team shows up Saturday with Chip back in town? your guess is as good as mine. if I knew for sure we would have Herbert I would say big win big emotions, and we are Bowl bound with a few weeks left to go in the season. if Herbert doesn't play, or we stay in the last few weeks funk of non stop derping then it will be another humiliating loss.

BOLD PREDICTION

CHAOS!!!!!

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