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Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such ASU 2018

By on Nov 16, 2018, 10:34am PST 1

Oct 13, 2018; Eugene, OR, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal motions to an injured player during the second half against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks won in overtime 30-27. - Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Just 2 more regular season games left and a bowl game. College football season is too short, but with all the injury's we have had it has kind of turned the season into an endless nightmare. On Sunday we took the family to Wurstfest and did some carnival rides, had some sausage on a stick, and listened to some polka music. sadly none of the bands we heard did the Chicken dance while we were at the event so I did not get to break out my fresh dance moves. 920x920.0.jpg

Tuesday morning I went out side and it was "snowing" probably closer to sleet, but still ran back inside to show my 4 year old. it is so rare down here that any sort of wintry mix is the most amazing thing ever. it there was any accumulation the whole city of San Antonio pretty much shuts down because no one can cope with it.

GettyImages-499713436.0.jpg

Ok enough of my nonsense ON TO THE STATS!!!

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

2018 S&P STATS PAGE

DUCKS S&P OVERALL ASU S&P OVERALL
S&P+ Rk: 54 S&P+ Rk: 52
Off. S&P+ Rk: 28 Off. S&P+ Rk: 31
Def. S&P+ Rk: 81 Def. S&P+ Rk: 85
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 92 Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 35
Résumé S&P+ Rk: 47 Résumé S&P+ Rk: 34
Strength of Schedule Rk: 50 Strength of Schedule Rk: 38

Just based on stats alone this looks like it should be a super close game. both the ratings for offense and defense are essentially the same. ASU as is the case with most of our opponents has a superior special teams. S&P thinks this should basically be a toss up with us winning by almost 2 points thanks to home field.

Oregon Five Factors
 ASU Five Factors
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 43.60% 50 41.90% 72 EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 45.90% 27 46.20% 110
Marginal Efficiency* -3.10% 56 -4.30% 69 Marginal Efficiency* -1.50% 38 -0.80% 108
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.18 66 1.16 64 EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.15 85 1.05 19
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.08 54 0.08 80 Marginal Explosiveness* 0.04 74 -0.06 21
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 32.3 18 28.7 54 FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 27.5 112 24.3 3
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 5 27 4.44 60 FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.6 67 4.3 47
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 0.4 65 TO Luck (PPG): 1.3 TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 3.5 39 TO Luck (PPG): 0.3
Actual TO Margin 3 39 Actual TO Margin 4 31

very similar teams again. we are slightly more "lucky" with Turn overs. they are more efficient on offense, we are more explosive. their defense is worse at efficiency but better at stopping explosive plays. Our offense does better when in scoring position, their defense does better at stopping teams in scoring position. just based on the numbers and not on injury's this should be a deadlock.

THE BASICS DUCKS ASU DUCKS ASU
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 99.6 66 95.9 96 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 108 29 94.9 98
Rushing marginal efficiency* -8.00% 91 -5.50% 87 Passing marginal efficiency* 2.00% 35 4.70% 118
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.14 95 -0.19 26 Passing marginal explosiveness* 31.40% 32 0.09 31
Opportunity rate* 45.30% 88 53.00% 120 Passing completion rate* 58.80% 81 62.40% 91
Stuff rate* 17.00% 36 19.70% 54 Sack rate* 4.80% 41 6.40% 62
DUCKS ASU DUCKS ASU
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 97.5 85 95.1 103 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 117.8 8 105.3 47
SD marginal efficiency* -5.40% 85 -0.60% 107 PD marginal efficiency* 2.20% 16 -1.40% 99
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.01 88 -0.04 34 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.28 26 -0.16 9
SD line yards per carry* 2.42 83 2.46 63 PD line yards per carry* 2.85 48 3.02 115
SD sack rate* 4.20% 47 5.00% 70 PD sack rate* 5.60% 38 8.70% 53
ASU DUCKS ASU DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 109.9 24 99.3 81 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 106.4 35 97.5 88
Rushing marginal efficiency* -4.30% 35 -9.10% 43 Passing marginal efficiency* 1.80% 40 0.60% 85
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.07 68 -0.09 63 Passing marginal explosiveness* 17.70% 78 0.22 81
Opportunity rate* 47.70% 64 48.30% 86 Passing completion rate* 64.40% 28 58.20% 50
Stuff rate* 19.80% 79 18.60% 75 Sack rate* 3.60% 20 5.40% 90
ASU DUCKS ASU DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 106.4 32 97.5 88 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 106.6 41 104.8 50
SD marginal efficiency* -2.50% 57 -3.40% 84 PD marginal efficiency* 1.20% 23 -6.40% 38
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.05 63 0.07 84 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.02 86 0.1 73
SD line yards per carry* 2.55 66 2.49 69 PD line yards per carry* 2.91 42 2.57 51
SD sack rate* 3.70% 38 4.20% 90 PD sack rate* 3.30% 11 7.30% 69

Again both teams similar not a ton jumping out. All of you who think we should pass on every down. these numbers say you're probably right. It seams like looking at these numbers ASU has probably been frustratingly inconsistent just like the DUCKS this year. I guess thankfully we are at home where we have been better.

Bill Walsh Stats
 DUCKS ASU DUCKS ASU
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 46.60% 76 52.20% 111 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 46.80% 41 47.20% 93
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 61.70% 119 71.70% 103 Third-and-short percentage 11.70% 43 10.60% 79
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 9.60% 19 7.60% 75 Third-and-long success rate 33.30% 14 23.90% 64
Avg. third-down distance 6.7 18 8 22 Third-and-medium success rate 45.30% 91 53.30% 102
Third down success rate 47.30% 20 42.30% 86 Third-and-short success rate 83.30% 29 73.30% 58
DUCKS ASU
Offense Rk Defense Rk DUCKS ASU
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 42.10% 43 30.40% 57 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 5.30% 109 0.00% 38 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 38.70% 83 44.10% 87
DUCKS ASU 11- to 20-yard line success rate 48.20% 22 46.50% 104
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 50.00% 65 48.90% 65
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 36.70% 15 35.40% 111 Inside 10 turnover rate 4.60% 120 2.10% 43
Blitz down big-play rate 12.80% 13 7.10% 52 First-and-goal success rate 53.90% 66 53.30% 69
Blitz down sack rate 6.30% 32 12.90% 34 Goal line success rate 78.60% 27 50.00% 20
Bill Walsh Stats
 ASU DUCKS ASU DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 49.40% 49 47.70% 72 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 40.60% 10 44.40% 110
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 69.90% 53 70.80% 92 Third-and-short percentage 17.30% 5 11.30% 89
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 8.10% 57 7.00% 55 Third-and-long success rate 27.80% 43 19.40% 24
Avg. third-down distance 6.5 15 6.9 104 Third-and-medium success rate 51.80% 48 44.80% 44
Third down success rate 48.00% 16 36.50% 46 Third-and-short success rate 69.60% 87 88.20% 124
ASU DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk ASU DUCKS
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 46.70% 30 50.00% 102 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 38 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 65.90% 2 45.30% 94
ASU DUCKS 11- to 20-yard line success rate 32.70% 101 37.70% 69
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 46.70% 92 36.70% 11
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 32.00% 41 28.20% 66 Inside 10 turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 63
Blitz down big-play rate 6.70% 93 5.80% 31 First-and-goal success rate 40.90% 110 42.10% 31
Blitz down sack rate 5.40% 22 11.00% 48 Goal line success rate 63.60% 73 58.30% 43

As the story goes, one team has a slight advantage here one has a slight advantage there. both offenses do well on third down, both defense do bad on third down. ASU is amazing at 3rd and short, but they are pretty bad at the goal line.

INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Justin Herbert 6'6, 233 JR 193 325 2621 25-6 59.40% 13.6 4.70% 7.4 3.20% 0.33
Braxton Burmeister 6'1, 206 SO 4 8 27 0-0 50.00% 6.8 0.00% 3.4 -16.50% -0.86
Blake Maimone 6'6, 227 JR 1 1 28 0-0 100.00% 28 0.00% 28 74.20% 1.49
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 151 718 4.8 5 4.62 43.70% -2.90% -0.01 1 (1)
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 83 414 5 2 5.03 43.40% -1.60% -0.02 2 (2)
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 53 294 5.5 4 4.56 56.60% 6.80% -0.03 0 (0)
Justin Herbert QB 6'6, 233 JR 46 275 6 2 5.17 60.90% 3.90% -0.04 2 (0)
Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6'1, 210 FR 18 36 2 7 2.25 33.30% 16.50% -0.04 1 (0)
Darrian Felix RB 5'11, 191 SO 14 47 3.4 0 2.43 42.90% -8.40% -0.17 0 (0)
Taj Griffin RB 5'11, 178 SR 6 31 5.2 0 1.17 100.00% 17.80% -0.14 0 (0)
Braxton Burmeister QB 6'1, 206 SO 4 18 4.5 0 2.25 50.00% 2.70% -0.38 0 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Dillon Mitchell WR 6'2, 189 JR 106 64 1002 8 60.40% 15.7 9.5 9.30% 0.43
Jaylon Redd WR 5'8, 178 SO 38 23 275 5 60.50% 12 7.2 1.80% 0.26
Jacob Breeland TE 6'5, 248 JR 34 20 311 2 58.80% 15.6 9.1 -2.40% 0.6
Brenden Schooler WR 6'2, 193 JR 32 20 199 1 62.50% 10 6.2 0.00% -0.2
Johnny Johnson III WR 6'0, 197 SO 31 12 181 4 38.70% 15.1 5.8 -5.50% 0.53
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 24 20 251 0 83.30% 12.6 10.5 25.40% 0.1
Kano Dillon TE 6'5, 265 SR 17 8 110 2 47.10% 13.8 6.5 -3.00% 0.64
Ryan Bay TE 6'3, 240 JR 11 7 54 0 63.60% 7.7 4.9 -11.60% -0.12
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 10 10 73 1 100.00% 7.3 7.3 24.00% -0.4
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 6 3 73 0 50.00% 24.3 12.2 13.60% 0.62
Tabari Hines WR 5'10, 175 SR 5 3 32 1 60.00% 10.7 6.4 4.80% 0.8
Taj Griffin RB 5'11, 178 SR 3 2 89 1 66.70% 44.5 29.7 24.20% 2.91
Daewood Davis WR 6'2, 178 FR 2 1 13 0 50.00% 13 6.5 27.60% -0.83
Darrian Felix RB 5'11, 191 SO 2 1 1 0 50.00% 1 0.5 -30.30% 0
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Troy Dye ILB 6'4, 224 JR 69.5 4.5 0 5.5 1 (4) 0 5 0.20% -0.28
Kaulana Apelu ILB 5'10, 208 SR 43.5 5 2 6.5 0 (4) 0 4.8 2.80% -0.3
Thomas Graham Jr. CB 5'11, 191 SO 39 4 1 3 1 (10) 0 11.1 29.10% 0.27
Jalen Jelks DE 6'6, 245 SR 38.5 7 3.5 9.5 0 (1) 1 2.1 -16.10% -0.29
Justin Hollins OLB 6'5, 242 SR 38 11 5 11.5 1 (7) 4 2 -6.20% -0.07
Nick Pickett S 6'1, 200 SO 35.5 0 0 1.5 0 (2) 0 12.1 38.50% 0.03
Ugochukwu Amadi S 5'10, 201 SR 31.5 3 1.5 5 3 (6) 0 8.7 15.20% 0.11
Deommodore Lenoir CB 5'11, 196 SO 31 0 0 0 3 (5) 0 13.2 45.40% -0.09
Gary Baker DL 6'3, 310 JR 25 1 0 3.5 0 (0) 0 3.1 -31.00% -0.2
Austin Faoliu DL 6'3, 285 SO 24 1 1 6 0 (1) 0 2.5 -15.60% -0.53
Jevon Holland S 6'1, 192 FR 24 0 0 0 4 (4) 0 12.4 38.60% 0.14
Jordon Scott DL 6'1, 329 SO 19 3.5 1 7.5 0 (1) 0 0.8 -36.40% -0.55
Isaac Slade-Matautia ILB 6'1, 220 FR 16.5 2 0 3 0 (1) 0 6.5 3.30% 0.09
La'Mar Winston Jr. OLB 6'2, 233 JR 16.5 1.5 0.5 3 0 (2) 0 5.2 -1.20% -0.47
Sampson Niu ILB 6'1, 212 SO 12 0 0 1 0 (0) 0 4.8 3.50% -0.35
Keith Simms OLB 6'3, 227 SO 12 0 0 0.5 0 (0) 1 7.1 8.80% -0.03
Drayton Carlberg DL 6'5, 282 JR 9.5 2.5 2.5 4.5 0 (0) 1 -0.6 -36.20% -0.8
Adrian Jackson ILB 6'2, 218 FR 6 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 2.3 -38.90% NULL
Gus Cumberlander DL 6'7, 251 JR 5.5 2 2 2 0 (0) 0 0 -11.30% -0.65
Mattrell McGraw S 5'10, 196 SR 3 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 3 -43.40% NULL
Sione Kava DL 6'6, 270 JR 2.5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 6.2 12.00% -0.15
Popo Aumavae DL 6'3, 303 FR 2 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 0.3 -10.50% -0.3
Brady Breeze S 6'0, 195 SO 2 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 1.5 -40.60% NULL
Verone McKinley III CB 5'10, 183 FR 2 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 3 -38.40% NULL
Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6'1, 210 FR 1.5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 11.3 57.30% -0.6
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Manny Wilkins 6'3, 200 SR 195 299 2449 16-4 65.20% 12.6 3.50% 7.7 6.10% 0.21
Dillon Sterling-Cole 6'3, 222 SO 0 2 0 0-0 0.00% 0.00% 0 -33.90% NULL
N'Keal Harry 6'4, 213 JR 0 1 0 0-1 0.00% 0.00% 0 -40.50% NULL
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
Eno Benjamin RB 5'10, 201 SO 227 1295 5.7 12 5.65 51.10% 3.40% -0.01 0 (0)
Manny Wilkins QB 6'3, 200 SR 72 433 6 6 4.81 59.70% 10.30% -0.02 2 (2)
Isaiah Floyd RB 5'7, 185 SO 41 200 4.9 1 5.06 39.00% -9.40% -0.05 0 (0)
Trelon Smith RB 5'9, 189 SO 11 56 5.1 0 4.4 45.50% -2.70% -0.15 0 (0)
N'Keal Harry WR 6'4, 213 JR 7 10 1.4 1 1.5 28.60% -17.70% -0.44 0 (0)
Dillon Sterling-Cole QB 6'3, 222 SO 2 22 11 0 16.5 50.00% -9.80% 0.52 0 (0)
A.J. Carter RB 6'0, 223 FR 2 7 3.5 0 2.7 50.00% -3.20% -0.9 0 (0)
Paul Lucas RB 5'11, 172 JR 1 12 12 0 6.5 100.00% 41.70% 0.75 0 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
N'Keal Harry WR 6'4, 213 JR 92 62 928 9 67.40% 15 10.1 8.80% 0.49
Kyle Williams WR 5'11, 182 JR 40 33 364 1 82.50% 11 9.1 16.80% -0.05
Eno Benjamin RB 5'10, 201 SO 39 30 212 2 76.90% 7.1 5.4 -3.60% -0.15
Frank Darby WR 6'0, 192 SO 38 20 399 1 52.60% 20 10.5 5.80% 0.86
Brandon Aiyuk WR 6'1, 195 JR 26 17 279 1 65.40% 16.4 10.7 7.40% 0.32
Tommy Hudson TE 6'5, 247 JR 14 11 53 0 78.60% 4.8 3.8 -2.10% -0.57
Ryan Newsome WR 5'9, 178 JR 9 4 55 0 44.40% 13.8 6.1 6.10% -0.06
Ryan Jenkins WR 5'11, 209 SR 7 6 79 0 85.70% 13.2 11.3 6.50% 0.2
Terrell Chatman WR 6'4, 193 JR 5 1 11 1 20.00% 11 2.2 -17.30% -0.09
Trelon Smith RB 5'9, 189 SO 4 4 22 0 100.00% 5.5 5.5 11.20% -0.97
Nick Ralston LB 6'0, 221 JR 4 4 18 1 100.00% 4.5 4.5 29.70% -0.54
Curtis Hodges WR 6'8, 221 SO 4 1 11 0 25.00% 11 2.8 -23.90% -0.78
Ceejhay French-Love TE 6'4, 245 SR 4 1 9 0 25.00% 9 2.3 -16.10% -0.8
Isaiah Floyd RB 5'7, 185 SO 2 1 9 0 50.00% 9 4.5 10.90% 0.03
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Jalen Harvey S 6'1, 198 SR 60.5 3.5 0 4 0 (1) 1 7.2 14.80% -0.1
Merlin Robertson LB 6'3, 235 FR 53.5 8.5 5 12 1 (2) 1 3.7 -3.80% -0.23
Chase Lucas DB 6'0, 175 SO 38.5 5 2 5 2 (3) 0 9 16.70% 0.17
Darien Butler LB 5'11, 232 FR 36.5 7.5 1 8 0 (0) 0 2.9 -11.30% -0.37
Kobe Williams DB 5'10, 169 JR 35 1.5 0 2 1 (4) 0 7.5 32.80% -0.51
Demonte King DB 6'1, 199 SR 32.5 2 0 2 0 (3) 1 7.9 26.20% -0.31
Aashari Crosswell S 6'0, 190 FR 23.5 1 0 1 1 (7) 0 13.4 44.20% 0.13
Terin Adams CB 5'11, 179 SO 23 3 0 3 0 (1) 0 12 33.00% -0.01
Tyler Johnson DL 6'4, 258 FR 22 7 3 8 0 (1) 1 2.9 -7.70% -0.24
Jalen Bates DL 6'4, 242 JR 21.5 5 1 6 0 (1) 1 2.7 -12.40% -0.58
Renell Wren DL 6'6, 297 SR 21 4.5 1 6 0 (2) 0 1.6 -23.80% -0.12
Shannon Forman DL 6'2, 304 SO 21 2 0 4 1 (1) 0 4.7 0.20% -0.2
Khaylan Kearse-Thomas LB 6'1, 230 JR 20 5 1 5 0 (0) 0 4.9 7.00% -0.31
Evan Fields DB 6'1, 194 SO 16.5 2 0 2 0 (1) 0 7.5 13.80% -0.06
Malik Lawal LB 6'1, 228 JR 15 3.5 3.5 4 0 (0) 1 2.7 -11.10% -0.07
George Lea DL 6'3, 275 JR 11.5 1.5 0 1.5 0 (0) 0 5.8 6.10% -0.25
Kyle Soelle LB 6'3, 214 FR 10.5 3 2 3 0 (0) 2 -0.4 -17.40% -0.64
Jermayne Lole DL 6'2, 270 FR 10 3 2 4 0 (4) 1 2.1 1.10% -0.46
D.J. Davidson DL 6'4, 325 FR 8 3.5 2 3.5 0 (1) 0 1.5 -23.00% -0.11
Langston Frederick CB 5'10, 180 SO 7.5 0 0 0 0 (2) 0 12 50.20% 0.03
Jay Jay Wilson LB 6'3, 243 SR 7 0.5 0 0.5 0 (1) 1 7.6 -0.80% 0.45
Cam Phillips S 6'1, 170 FR 7 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 13 28.90% 0.24
Darius Slade DL 6'5, 257 JR 6 2.5 2.5 3.5 0 (0) 1 -1.7 -22.50% 0
Dasmond Tautalatasi DB 6'0, 208 SR 4.5 0 0 0 1 (1) 0 10.2 60.50% -0.2
Koron Crump LB 6'3, 215 SR 3.5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 6.7 15.00% -0.26

So, looking at this. The ASU skill position players are across the board better than ours. Eno Benjamine will probably be the difference in this game. He will also cause many tears for Oregon fans. Herbert is better than Wilkins but I have a feeling sadly that won't matter.

DUCK PRINTS
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 61.00% 49 59.60% Standard Downs run rate* 56.80% 90 59.40%
Passing Downs run rate* 27.90% 104 34.50% Passing Downs run rate* 34.60% 64 34.50%
Adj. Pace** -2.6 17 0 Overall Havoc Rate 16.20% 66 16.10%
% of Solo Tackles 74.70% 53 72.80% DL Havoc Rate 3.20% 108 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 14.50% 48 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 6.80% 10 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 6.20% 83 6.50%
PD to INC 42.70% 8
ASU FOOTPRINT STATS
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 60.90% 51 59.60% Standard Downs run rate* 61.20% 45 59.40%
Passing Downs run rate* 34.20% 66 34.50% Passing Downs run rate* 34.30% 68 34.50%
Adj. Pace** -0.6 50 0 Overall Havoc Rate 18.60% 25 16.10%
% of Solo Tackles 79.90% 20 72.80% DL Havoc Rate 6.30% 36 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 14.10% 39 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 5.30% 43 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 7.00% 47 6.50%
PD to INC 38.30% 29 34.20%

nothing too crazy here but it looks like ASU's defense is pretty balanced front to back.

DUCKS SPECIAL ASU SPECIAL
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk
FG value (per kick) -0.7 126 FG value (per kick) 0.1 61
Punt efficiency 64.60% 43 Punt efficiency 72.50% 18
Kickoff efficiency 82.80% 51 Kickoff efficiency 93.00% 16
Punt return efficiency 75.00% 4 Punt return efficiency 47.40% 73
Kick return efficiency 66.70% 11 Kick return efficiency 29.40% 112

we are way better at returns, but way worse at kicking.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I could see this game going 2 different ways. ASU comes out guns a blazing and fired up. Our injuries prove too much and we can't do any thing on offense or stop any thing on defense and get boat raced at home happy senior day every body!!! Orrrrr...... Oregon comes out fired up and plays clean. the O-Line is back to chugging and executing. Magically the wideouts can catch and get separation on their routes. some how our defense can function with only 1 middle linebacker. combine that with ASU not being able to execute on the road and all of their drives stall out.

WHO SHOWS UP? for the life of me I have no idea.

SCORE PREDICTION 42 - 14, insert either team on either side and I wouldn't be shocked.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or the Addicted To Quack Moderators. FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable Oregon fans.

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