Just 2 more regular season games left and a bowl game. College football season is too short, but with all the injury's we have had it has kind of turned the season into an endless nightmare. On Sunday we took the family to Wurstfest and did some carnival rides, had some sausage on a stick, and listened to some polka music. sadly none of the bands we heard did the Chicken dance while we were at the event so I did not get to break out my fresh dance moves.
Tuesday morning I went out side and it was "snowing" probably closer to sleet, but still ran back inside to show my 4 year old. it is so rare down here that any sort of wintry mix is the most amazing thing ever. it there was any accumulation the whole city of San Antonio pretty much shuts down because no one can cope with it.
Ok enough of my nonsense ON TO THE STATS!!!
Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.
DUCKS S&P OVERALL | ASU S&P OVERALL | |||
S&P+ Rk: | 54 | S&P+ Rk: | 52 | |
Off. S&P+ Rk: | 28 | Off. S&P+ Rk: | 31 | |
Def. S&P+ Rk: | 81 | Def. S&P+ Rk: | 85 | |
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: | 92 | Special Teams S&P+ Rk: | 35 | |
Résumé S&P+ Rk: | 47 | Résumé S&P+ Rk: | 34 | |
Strength of Schedule Rk: | 50 | Strength of Schedule Rk: | 38 |
Just based on stats alone this looks like it should be a super close game. both the ratings for offense and defense are essentially the same. ASU as is the case with most of our opponents has a superior special teams. S&P thinks this should basically be a toss up with us winning by almost 2 points thanks to home field.
ASU Five Factors | |||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
EFFICIENCY | Success Rate* | 43.60% | 50 | 41.90% | 72 | EFFICIENCY | Success Rate* | 45.90% | 27 | 46.20% | 110 |
Marginal Efficiency* | -3.10% | 56 | -4.30% | 69 | Marginal Efficiency* | -1.50% | 38 | -0.80% | 108 | ||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP* | 1.18 | 66 | 1.16 | 64 | EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP* | 1.15 | 85 | 1.05 | 19 |
Marginal Explosiveness* | 0.08 | 54 | 0.08 | 80 | Marginal Explosiveness* | 0.04 | 74 | -0.06 | 21 | ||
FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 32.3 | 18 | 28.7 | 54 | FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 27.5 | 112 | 24.3 | 3 |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opp. | 5 | 27 | 4.44 | 60 | FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opp. | 4.6 | 67 | 4.3 | 47 |
TURNOVERS | Expected TO Margin | 0.4 | 65 | TO Luck (PPG): | 1.3 | TURNOVERS | Expected TO Margin | 3.5 | 39 | TO Luck (PPG): | 0.3 |
Actual TO Margin | 3 | 39 | Actual TO Margin | 4 | 31 |
very similar teams again. we are slightly more "lucky" with Turn overs. they are more efficient on offense, we are more explosive. their defense is worse at efficiency but better at stopping explosive plays. Our offense does better when in scoring position, their defense does better at stopping teams in scoring position. just based on the numbers and not on injury's this should be a deadlock.
THE BASICS | DUCKS | ASU | DUCKS | ASU | |||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
RUSHING | RUSHING S&P+ | 99.6 | 66 | 95.9 | 96 | PASSING | PASSING S&P+ | 108 | 29 | 94.9 | 98 |
Rushing marginal efficiency* | -8.00% | 91 | -5.50% | 87 | Passing marginal efficiency* | 2.00% | 35 | 4.70% | 118 | ||
Rushing marginal explosiveness* | -0.14 | 95 | -0.19 | 26 | Passing marginal explosiveness* | 31.40% | 32 | 0.09 | 31 | ||
Opportunity rate* | 45.30% | 88 | 53.00% | 120 | Passing completion rate* | 58.80% | 81 | 62.40% | 91 | ||
Stuff rate* | 17.00% | 36 | 19.70% | 54 | Sack rate* | 4.80% | 41 | 6.40% | 62 | ||
DUCKS | ASU | DUCKS | ASU | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
STANDARD DOWNS | STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ | 97.5 | 85 | 95.1 | 103 | PASSING DOWNS | PASSING DOWNS S&P+ | 117.8 | 8 | 105.3 | 47 |
SD marginal efficiency* | -5.40% | 85 | -0.60% | 107 | PD marginal efficiency* | 2.20% | 16 | -1.40% | 99 | ||
SD marginal explosiveness* | 0.01 | 88 | -0.04 | 34 | PD marginal explosiveness* | 0.28 | 26 | -0.16 | 9 | ||
SD line yards per carry* | 2.42 | 83 | 2.46 | 63 | PD line yards per carry* | 2.85 | 48 | 3.02 | 115 | ||
SD sack rate* | 4.20% | 47 | 5.00% | 70 | PD sack rate* | 5.60% | 38 | 8.70% | 53 | ||
ASU | DUCKS | ASU | DUCKS | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
RUSHING | RUSHING S&P+ | 109.9 | 24 | 99.3 | 81 | PASSING | PASSING S&P+ | 106.4 | 35 | 97.5 | 88 |
Rushing marginal efficiency* | -4.30% | 35 | -9.10% | 43 | Passing marginal efficiency* | 1.80% | 40 | 0.60% | 85 | ||
Rushing marginal explosiveness* | -0.07 | 68 | -0.09 | 63 | Passing marginal explosiveness* | 17.70% | 78 | 0.22 | 81 | ||
Opportunity rate* | 47.70% | 64 | 48.30% | 86 | Passing completion rate* | 64.40% | 28 | 58.20% | 50 | ||
Stuff rate* | 19.80% | 79 | 18.60% | 75 | Sack rate* | 3.60% | 20 | 5.40% | 90 | ||
ASU | DUCKS | ASU | DUCKS | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
STANDARD DOWNS | STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ | 106.4 | 32 | 97.5 | 88 | PASSING DOWNS | PASSING DOWNS S&P+ | 106.6 | 41 | 104.8 | 50 |
SD marginal efficiency* | -2.50% | 57 | -3.40% | 84 | PD marginal efficiency* | 1.20% | 23 | -6.40% | 38 | ||
SD marginal explosiveness* | 0.05 | 63 | 0.07 | 84 | PD marginal explosiveness* | 0.02 | 86 | 0.1 | 73 | ||
SD line yards per carry* | 2.55 | 66 | 2.49 | 69 | PD line yards per carry* | 2.91 | 42 | 2.57 | 51 | ||
SD sack rate* | 3.70% | 38 | 4.20% | 90 | PD sack rate* | 3.30% | 11 | 7.30% | 69 |
Again both teams similar not a ton jumping out. All of you who think we should pass on every down. these numbers say you're probably right. It seams like looking at these numbers ASU has probably been frustratingly inconsistent just like the DUCKS this year. I guess thankfully we are at home where we have been better.
DUCKS | ASU | DUCKS | ASU | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
OPEN PLAY | Standard Downs success rate | 46.60% | 76 | 52.20% | 111 | THIRD DOWN | Third-and-long percentage | 46.80% | 41 | 47.20% | 93 |
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd | 61.70% | 119 | 71.70% | 103 | Third-and-short percentage | 11.70% | 43 | 10.60% | 79 | ||
Big-play rate (20+ yards) | 9.60% | 19 | 7.60% | 75 | Third-and-long success rate | 33.30% | 14 | 23.90% | 64 | ||
Avg. third-down distance | 6.7 | 18 | 8 | 22 | Third-and-medium success rate | 45.30% | 91 | 53.30% | 102 | ||
Third down success rate | 47.30% | 20 | 42.30% | 86 | Third-and-short success rate | 83.30% | 29 | 73.30% | 58 | ||
DUCKS | ASU | ||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | DUCKS | ASU | ||||||
BACKED UP | Backed up success rate | 42.10% | 43 | 30.40% | 57 | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
Backed up turnover rate | 5.30% | 109 | 0.00% | 38 | RED ZONE | 21- to 30-yard line success rate | 38.70% | 83 | 44.10% | 87 | |
DUCKS | ASU | 11- to 20-yard line success rate | 48.20% | 22 | 46.50% | 104 | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Inside 10 success rate | 50.00% | 65 | 48.90% | 65 | |||
BLITZ DOWNS | Blitz down success rate | 36.70% | 15 | 35.40% | 111 | Inside 10 turnover rate | 4.60% | 120 | 2.10% | 43 | |
Blitz down big-play rate | 12.80% | 13 | 7.10% | 52 | First-and-goal success rate | 53.90% | 66 | 53.30% | 69 | ||
Blitz down sack rate | 6.30% | 32 | 12.90% | 34 | Goal line success rate | 78.60% | 27 | 50.00% | 20 | ||
ASU | DUCKS | ASU | DUCKS | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
OPEN PLAY | Standard Downs success rate | 49.40% | 49 | 47.70% | 72 | THIRD DOWN | Third-and-long percentage | 40.60% | 10 | 44.40% | 110 |
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd | 69.90% | 53 | 70.80% | 92 | Third-and-short percentage | 17.30% | 5 | 11.30% | 89 | ||
Big-play rate (20+ yards) | 8.10% | 57 | 7.00% | 55 | Third-and-long success rate | 27.80% | 43 | 19.40% | 24 | ||
Avg. third-down distance | 6.5 | 15 | 6.9 | 104 | Third-and-medium success rate | 51.80% | 48 | 44.80% | 44 | ||
Third down success rate | 48.00% | 16 | 36.50% | 46 | Third-and-short success rate | 69.60% | 87 | 88.20% | 124 | ||
ASU | DUCKS | ||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ASU | DUCKS | ||||||
BACKED UP | Backed up success rate | 46.70% | 30 | 50.00% | 102 | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
Backed up turnover rate | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 38 | RED ZONE | 21- to 30-yard line success rate | 65.90% | 2 | 45.30% | 94 | |
ASU | DUCKS | 11- to 20-yard line success rate | 32.70% | 101 | 37.70% | 69 | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Inside 10 success rate | 46.70% | 92 | 36.70% | 11 | |||
BLITZ DOWNS | Blitz down success rate | 32.00% | 41 | 28.20% | 66 | Inside 10 turnover rate | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 63 | |
Blitz down big-play rate | 6.70% | 93 | 5.80% | 31 | First-and-goal success rate | 40.90% | 110 | 42.10% | 31 | ||
Blitz down sack rate | 5.40% | 22 | 11.00% | 48 | Goal line success rate | 63.60% | 73 | 58.30% | 43 |
As the story goes, one team has a slight advantage here one has a slight advantage there. both offenses do well on third down, both defense do bad on third down. ASU is amazing at 3rd and short, but they are pretty bad at the goal line.
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD-INT | Comp Rate | Yards/Comp | Sack Rate | Yards/Att. | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Justin Herbert | 6'6, 233 | JR | 193 | 325 | 2621 | 25-6 | 59.40% | 13.6 | 4.70% | 7.4 | 3.20% | 0.33 | |
Braxton Burmeister | 6'1, 206 | SO | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0-0 | 50.00% | 6.8 | 0.00% | 3.4 | -16.50% | -0.86 | |
Blake Maimone | 6'6, 227 | JR | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0-0 | 100.00% | 28 | 0.00% | 28 | 74.20% | 1.49 | |
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | Yards/Carry | TD | Hlt Yds/Opp | Opp Rate | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | Fum (lost) |
CJ Verdell | RB | 5'9, 201 | FR | 151 | 718 | 4.8 | 5 | 4.62 | 43.70% | -2.90% | -0.01 | 1 (1) | |
Travis Dye | RB | 5'10, 197 | FR | 83 | 414 | 5 | 2 | 5.03 | 43.40% | -1.60% | -0.02 | 2 (2) | |
Tony Brooks-James | RB | 5'9, 190 | SR | 53 | 294 | 5.5 | 4 | 4.56 | 56.60% | 6.80% | -0.03 | 0 (0) | |
Justin Herbert | QB | 6'6, 233 | JR | 46 | 275 | 6 | 2 | 5.17 | 60.90% | 3.90% | -0.04 | 2 (0) | |
Cyrus Habibi-Likio | RB | 6'1, 210 | FR | 18 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 2.25 | 33.30% | 16.50% | -0.04 | 1 (0) | |
Darrian Felix | RB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | 2.43 | 42.90% | -8.40% | -0.17 | 0 (0) | |
Taj Griffin | RB | 5'11, 178 | SR | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | 1.17 | 100.00% | 17.80% | -0.14 | 0 (0) | |
Braxton Burmeister | QB | 6'1, 206 | SO | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 2.25 | 50.00% | 2.70% | -0.38 | 0 (0) | |
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Catch Rate | Yds/Catch | Yds/Target | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Dillon Mitchell | WR | 6'2, 189 | JR | 106 | 64 | 1002 | 8 | 60.40% | 15.7 | 9.5 | 9.30% | 0.43 | |
Jaylon Redd | WR | 5'8, 178 | SO | 38 | 23 | 275 | 5 | 60.50% | 12 | 7.2 | 1.80% | 0.26 | |
Jacob Breeland | TE | 6'5, 248 | JR | 34 | 20 | 311 | 2 | 58.80% | 15.6 | 9.1 | -2.40% | 0.6 | |
Brenden Schooler | WR | 6'2, 193 | JR | 32 | 20 | 199 | 1 | 62.50% | 10 | 6.2 | 0.00% | -0.2 | |
Johnny Johnson III | WR | 6'0, 197 | SO | 31 | 12 | 181 | 4 | 38.70% | 15.1 | 5.8 | -5.50% | 0.53 | |
CJ Verdell | RB | 5'9, 201 | FR | 24 | 20 | 251 | 0 | 83.30% | 12.6 | 10.5 | 25.40% | 0.1 | |
Kano Dillon | TE | 6'5, 265 | SR | 17 | 8 | 110 | 2 | 47.10% | 13.8 | 6.5 | -3.00% | 0.64 | |
Ryan Bay | TE | 6'3, 240 | JR | 11 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 63.60% | 7.7 | 4.9 | -11.60% | -0.12 | |
Travis Dye | RB | 5'10, 197 | FR | 10 | 10 | 73 | 1 | 100.00% | 7.3 | 7.3 | 24.00% | -0.4 | |
Tony Brooks-James | RB | 5'9, 190 | SR | 6 | 3 | 73 | 0 | 50.00% | 24.3 | 12.2 | 13.60% | 0.62 | |
Tabari Hines | WR | 5'10, 175 | SR | 5 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 60.00% | 10.7 | 6.4 | 4.80% | 0.8 | |
Taj Griffin | RB | 5'11, 178 | SR | 3 | 2 | 89 | 1 | 66.70% | 44.5 | 29.7 | 24.20% | 2.91 | |
Daewood Davis | WR | 6'2, 178 | FR | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 50.00% | 13 | 6.5 | 27.60% | -0.83 | |
Darrian Felix | RB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | 1 | 0.5 | -30.30% | 0 | |
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | TFLs | Sacks | Run Stuffs | INT (PBU) | FF | Yards/Play | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Troy Dye | ILB | 6'4, 224 | JR | 69.5 | 4.5 | 0 | 5.5 | 1 (4) | 0 | 5 | 0.20% | -0.28 | |
Kaulana Apelu | ILB | 5'10, 208 | SR | 43.5 | 5 | 2 | 6.5 | 0 (4) | 0 | 4.8 | 2.80% | -0.3 | |
Thomas Graham Jr. | CB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 39 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 (10) | 0 | 11.1 | 29.10% | 0.27 | |
Jalen Jelks | DE | 6'6, 245 | SR | 38.5 | 7 | 3.5 | 9.5 | 0 (1) | 1 | 2.1 | -16.10% | -0.29 | |
Justin Hollins | OLB | 6'5, 242 | SR | 38 | 11 | 5 | 11.5 | 1 (7) | 4 | 2 | -6.20% | -0.07 | |
Nick Pickett | S | 6'1, 200 | SO | 35.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 (2) | 0 | 12.1 | 38.50% | 0.03 | |
Ugochukwu Amadi | S | 5'10, 201 | SR | 31.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 5 | 3 (6) | 0 | 8.7 | 15.20% | 0.11 | |
Deommodore Lenoir | CB | 5'11, 196 | SO | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 (5) | 0 | 13.2 | 45.40% | -0.09 | |
Gary Baker | DL | 6'3, 310 | JR | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3.1 | -31.00% | -0.2 | |
Austin Faoliu | DL | 6'3, 285 | SO | 24 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 (1) | 0 | 2.5 | -15.60% | -0.53 | |
Jevon Holland | S | 6'1, 192 | FR | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 (4) | 0 | 12.4 | 38.60% | 0.14 | |
Jordon Scott | DL | 6'1, 329 | SO | 19 | 3.5 | 1 | 7.5 | 0 (1) | 0 | 0.8 | -36.40% | -0.55 | |
Isaac Slade-Matautia | ILB | 6'1, 220 | FR | 16.5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 (1) | 0 | 6.5 | 3.30% | 0.09 | |
La'Mar Winston Jr. | OLB | 6'2, 233 | JR | 16.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 3 | 0 (2) | 0 | 5.2 | -1.20% | -0.47 | |
Sampson Niu | ILB | 6'1, 212 | SO | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.8 | 3.50% | -0.35 | |
Keith Simms | OLB | 6'3, 227 | SO | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 (0) | 1 | 7.1 | 8.80% | -0.03 | |
Drayton Carlberg | DL | 6'5, 282 | JR | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 0 (0) | 1 | -0.6 | -36.20% | -0.8 | |
Adrian Jackson | ILB | 6'2, 218 | FR | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 2.3 | -38.90% | NULL | |
Gus Cumberlander | DL | 6'7, 251 | JR | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 (0) | 0 | 0 | -11.30% | -0.65 | |
Mattrell McGraw | S | 5'10, 196 | SR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3 | -43.40% | NULL | |
Sione Kava | DL | 6'6, 270 | JR | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 6.2 | 12.00% | -0.15 | |
Popo Aumavae | DL | 6'3, 303 | FR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 0.3 | -10.50% | -0.3 | |
Brady Breeze | S | 6'0, 195 | SO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1.5 | -40.60% | NULL | |
Verone McKinley III | CB | 5'10, 183 | FR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3 | -38.40% | NULL | |
Cyrus Habibi-Likio | RB | 6'1, 210 | FR | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 11.3 | 57.30% | -0.6 |
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD-INT | Comp Rate | Yards/Comp | Sack Rate | Yards/Att. | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Manny Wilkins | 6'3, 200 | SR | 195 | 299 | 2449 | 16-4 | 65.20% | 12.6 | 3.50% | 7.7 | 6.10% | 0.21 | |
Dillon Sterling-Cole | 6'3, 222 | SO | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | -33.90% | NULL | ||
N'Keal Harry | 6'4, 213 | JR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0 | -40.50% | NULL | ||
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | Yards/Carry | TD | Hlt Yds/Opp | Opp Rate | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | Fum (lost) |
Eno Benjamin | RB | 5'10, 201 | SO | 227 | 1295 | 5.7 | 12 | 5.65 | 51.10% | 3.40% | -0.01 | 0 (0) | |
Manny Wilkins | QB | 6'3, 200 | SR | 72 | 433 | 6 | 6 | 4.81 | 59.70% | 10.30% | -0.02 | 2 (2) | |
Isaiah Floyd | RB | 5'7, 185 | SO | 41 | 200 | 4.9 | 1 | 5.06 | 39.00% | -9.40% | -0.05 | 0 (0) | |
Trelon Smith | RB | 5'9, 189 | SO | 11 | 56 | 5.1 | 0 | 4.4 | 45.50% | -2.70% | -0.15 | 0 (0) | |
N'Keal Harry | WR | 6'4, 213 | JR | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 1 | 1.5 | 28.60% | -17.70% | -0.44 | 0 (0) | |
Dillon Sterling-Cole | QB | 6'3, 222 | SO | 2 | 22 | 11 | 0 | 16.5 | 50.00% | -9.80% | 0.52 | 0 (0) | |
A.J. Carter | RB | 6'0, 223 | FR | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 2.7 | 50.00% | -3.20% | -0.9 | 0 (0) | |
Paul Lucas | RB | 5'11, 172 | JR | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6.5 | 100.00% | 41.70% | 0.75 | 0 (0) | |
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Catch Rate | Yds/Catch | Yds/Target | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
N'Keal Harry | WR | 6'4, 213 | JR | 92 | 62 | 928 | 9 | 67.40% | 15 | 10.1 | 8.80% | 0.49 | |
Kyle Williams | WR | 5'11, 182 | JR | 40 | 33 | 364 | 1 | 82.50% | 11 | 9.1 | 16.80% | -0.05 | |
Eno Benjamin | RB | 5'10, 201 | SO | 39 | 30 | 212 | 2 | 76.90% | 7.1 | 5.4 | -3.60% | -0.15 | |
Frank Darby | WR | 6'0, 192 | SO | 38 | 20 | 399 | 1 | 52.60% | 20 | 10.5 | 5.80% | 0.86 | |
Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 6'1, 195 | JR | 26 | 17 | 279 | 1 | 65.40% | 16.4 | 10.7 | 7.40% | 0.32 | |
Tommy Hudson | TE | 6'5, 247 | JR | 14 | 11 | 53 | 0 | 78.60% | 4.8 | 3.8 | -2.10% | -0.57 | |
Ryan Newsome | WR | 5'9, 178 | JR | 9 | 4 | 55 | 0 | 44.40% | 13.8 | 6.1 | 6.10% | -0.06 | |
Ryan Jenkins | WR | 5'11, 209 | SR | 7 | 6 | 79 | 0 | 85.70% | 13.2 | 11.3 | 6.50% | 0.2 | |
Terrell Chatman | WR | 6'4, 193 | JR | 5 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 20.00% | 11 | 2.2 | -17.30% | -0.09 | |
Trelon Smith | RB | 5'9, 189 | SO | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 100.00% | 5.5 | 5.5 | 11.20% | -0.97 | |
Nick Ralston | LB | 6'0, 221 | JR | 4 | 4 | 18 | 1 | 100.00% | 4.5 | 4.5 | 29.70% | -0.54 | |
Curtis Hodges | WR | 6'8, 221 | SO | 4 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 25.00% | 11 | 2.8 | -23.90% | -0.78 | |
Ceejhay French-Love | TE | 6'4, 245 | SR | 4 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 25.00% | 9 | 2.3 | -16.10% | -0.8 | |
Isaiah Floyd | RB | 5'7, 185 | SO | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 50.00% | 9 | 4.5 | 10.90% | 0.03 | |
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | TFLs | Sacks | Run Stuffs | INT (PBU) | FF | Yards/Play | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Jalen Harvey | S | 6'1, 198 | SR | 60.5 | 3.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 (1) | 1 | 7.2 | 14.80% | -0.1 | |
Merlin Robertson | LB | 6'3, 235 | FR | 53.5 | 8.5 | 5 | 12 | 1 (2) | 1 | 3.7 | -3.80% | -0.23 | |
Chase Lucas | DB | 6'0, 175 | SO | 38.5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2 (3) | 0 | 9 | 16.70% | 0.17 | |
Darien Butler | LB | 5'11, 232 | FR | 36.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 8 | 0 (0) | 0 | 2.9 | -11.30% | -0.37 | |
Kobe Williams | DB | 5'10, 169 | JR | 35 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 (4) | 0 | 7.5 | 32.80% | -0.51 | |
Demonte King | DB | 6'1, 199 | SR | 32.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 (3) | 1 | 7.9 | 26.20% | -0.31 | |
Aashari Crosswell | S | 6'0, 190 | FR | 23.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 (7) | 0 | 13.4 | 44.20% | 0.13 | |
Terin Adams | CB | 5'11, 179 | SO | 23 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 (1) | 0 | 12 | 33.00% | -0.01 | |
Tyler Johnson | DL | 6'4, 258 | FR | 22 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 (1) | 1 | 2.9 | -7.70% | -0.24 | |
Jalen Bates | DL | 6'4, 242 | JR | 21.5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 (1) | 1 | 2.7 | -12.40% | -0.58 | |
Renell Wren | DL | 6'6, 297 | SR | 21 | 4.5 | 1 | 6 | 0 (2) | 0 | 1.6 | -23.80% | -0.12 | |
Shannon Forman | DL | 6'2, 304 | SO | 21 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 (1) | 0 | 4.7 | 0.20% | -0.2 | |
Khaylan Kearse-Thomas | LB | 6'1, 230 | JR | 20 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 (0) | 0 | 4.9 | 7.00% | -0.31 | |
Evan Fields | DB | 6'1, 194 | SO | 16.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 (1) | 0 | 7.5 | 13.80% | -0.06 | |
Malik Lawal | LB | 6'1, 228 | JR | 15 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 0 (0) | 1 | 2.7 | -11.10% | -0.07 | |
George Lea | DL | 6'3, 275 | JR | 11.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 (0) | 0 | 5.8 | 6.10% | -0.25 | |
Kyle Soelle | LB | 6'3, 214 | FR | 10.5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 (0) | 2 | -0.4 | -17.40% | -0.64 | |
Jermayne Lole | DL | 6'2, 270 | FR | 10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 (4) | 1 | 2.1 | 1.10% | -0.46 | |
D.J. Davidson | DL | 6'4, 325 | FR | 8 | 3.5 | 2 | 3.5 | 0 (1) | 0 | 1.5 | -23.00% | -0.11 | |
Langston Frederick | CB | 5'10, 180 | SO | 7.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (2) | 0 | 12 | 50.20% | 0.03 | |
Jay Jay Wilson | LB | 6'3, 243 | SR | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 (1) | 1 | 7.6 | -0.80% | 0.45 | |
Cam Phillips | S | 6'1, 170 | FR | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 13 | 28.90% | 0.24 | |
Darius Slade | DL | 6'5, 257 | JR | 6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0 (0) | 1 | -1.7 | -22.50% | 0 | |
Dasmond Tautalatasi | DB | 6'0, 208 | SR | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 (1) | 0 | 10.2 | 60.50% | -0.2 | |
Koron Crump | LB | 6'3, 215 | SR | 3.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 6.7 | 15.00% | -0.26 |
So, looking at this. The ASU skill position players are across the board better than ours. Eno Benjamine will probably be the difference in this game. He will also cause many tears for Oregon fans. Herbert is better than Wilkins but I have a feeling sadly that won't matter.
DUCK PRINTS | |||||||||
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg | DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg |
Standard Downs run rate* | 61.00% | 49 | 59.60% | Standard Downs run rate* | 56.80% | 90 | 59.40% | ||
Passing Downs run rate* | 27.90% | 104 | 34.50% | Passing Downs run rate* | 34.60% | 64 | 34.50% | ||
Adj. Pace** | -2.6 | 17 | 0 | Overall Havoc Rate | 16.20% | 66 | 16.10% | ||
% of Solo Tackles | 74.70% | 53 | 72.80% | DL Havoc Rate | 3.20% | 108 | 5.10% | ||
Havoc Rate Allowed | 14.50% | 48 | 15.60% | LB Havoc Rate | 6.80% | 10 | 4.60% | ||
DB Havoc Rate | 6.20% | 83 | 6.50% | ||||||
PD to INC | 42.70% | 8 |
ASU FOOTPRINT STATS | |||||||||
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg | DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg |
Standard Downs run rate* | 60.90% | 51 | 59.60% | Standard Downs run rate* | 61.20% | 45 | 59.40% | ||
Passing Downs run rate* | 34.20% | 66 | 34.50% | Passing Downs run rate* | 34.30% | 68 | 34.50% | ||
Adj. Pace** | -0.6 | 50 | 0 | Overall Havoc Rate | 18.60% | 25 | 16.10% | ||
% of Solo Tackles | 79.90% | 20 | 72.80% | DL Havoc Rate | 6.30% | 36 | 5.10% | ||
Havoc Rate Allowed | 14.10% | 39 | 15.60% | LB Havoc Rate | 5.30% | 43 | 4.60% | ||
DB Havoc Rate | 7.00% | 47 | 6.50% | ||||||
PD to INC | 38.30% | 29 | 34.20% |
nothing too crazy here but it looks like ASU's defense is pretty balanced front to back.
DUCKS SPECIAL | ASU SPECIAL | ||||||
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Category | Rate | Rk | SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Category | Rate | Rk |
FG value (per kick) | -0.7 | 126 | FG value (per kick) | 0.1 | 61 | ||
Punt efficiency | 64.60% | 43 | Punt efficiency | 72.50% | 18 | ||
Kickoff efficiency | 82.80% | 51 | Kickoff efficiency | 93.00% | 16 | ||
Punt return efficiency | 75.00% | 4 | Punt return efficiency | 47.40% | 73 | ||
Kick return efficiency | 66.70% | 11 | Kick return efficiency | 29.40% | 112 |
we are way better at returns, but way worse at kicking.
SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
I could see this game going 2 different ways. ASU comes out guns a blazing and fired up. Our injuries prove too much and we can't do any thing on offense or stop any thing on defense and get boat raced at home happy senior day every body!!! Orrrrr...... Oregon comes out fired up and plays clean. the O-Line is back to chugging and executing. Magically the wideouts can catch and get separation on their routes. some how our defense can function with only 1 middle linebacker. combine that with ASU not being able to execute on the road and all of their drives stall out.
WHO SHOWS UP? for the life of me I have no idea.
SCORE PREDICTION 42 - 14, insert either team on either side and I wouldn't be shocked.
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