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Know Thy Enemy: Oregon State Beavers

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NCAA Football: Arizona State at Oregon
New Oregon Ducks folk hero Justin Collins
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

The Civil War is upon us. Who are the Beavers and how have they performed this season? Can they get it within three touchdowns?

2018 Record: 2-9 (1-7)

Key Numbers + Info (2018 season)

Note: Statistics were culled from the Oregon State main site, www.osubeavers.com) and www.sports-reference.com

Head coach: Jonathan Smith

OOC Opponents: Ohio State, Southern Utah, Nevada

Points per game: 27.1

Points allowed per game: 44.8

Avg. yards per rush: 4.0

Avg. yards per rush allowed: 6.8

Avg. rush yards per game: 164.8

Avg. rush yards per game allowed: 271.8

Rushing TDs: 23 for, 31 against

Avg. pass yards per game: 246.2

Avg. pass yards per game allowed: 267.4

Passing TDs: 15 for, 32 against

Collective Pass Completion Rate: 61%

Collective Pass Completion Rate Against: 63%

Leading Rusher: Jermar Jefferson (218 carries for 1,316 yards and 12 TDs)

Leading Receiver (Receptions): Timmy Hernandez (52 receptions for 574 yards and 1 TD)

Leading Receiver (Yards): Isaiah Hodgins (51 receptions for 743 yards and 5 TDs)

Leading Receiver (Touchdowns): Trevon Bradford (51 receptions for 578 yards and 6 TDs)

Leading Tackler: Jalen Moore (91 tackles, 1 tackle for loss)

Leader in Sacks: Andrzej Murray-Hughes (3.0)

Analysis

  • The Beavers are run centric team with a 54 to 46 run to pass ratio. Their opponents are even more run based with a 55 to 45 run to pass. They have been dominated in the run game in 9 of the 11 games thus far. In the two games that they weren’t, both were obvious giveaways (SUU and Wazzu).
  • Oregon State has been crushed in the total yardage department to the tune of 5,933 to 4,521. While the passing margins are relatively close (2,941 to 2,708), the run game is where they lose badly (2,992 to 1,813).
  • The highest point total they have scored is 48 in a win against Southern Utah. The lowest that they have scored is 7 against Cal. The most points they have given up is 77 against Ohio State. The lowest that they have given up is 35 against Arizona.

Key players to watch

As the Beavers have no legitimately draftable prospects in the 2019 class, here are several players that the Ducks should worry about.

1. Jermar Jefferson RB Freshman

- He ranks FIFTH in the entire FBS in yards, 28th in touchdowns, 56th in yards per carry, and ninth in attempts. Which is pretty impressive for a true freshman.

2. Isaiah Hodgins WR Sophomore

- Hodgins is tied for second on team for receptions but has the most yards and leads the team in yards per game with 74.4 per contest. He’s also their biggest receiver at 6’4 208.

Keys to an Oregon win

  • Pass defense. Oregon will face an offense that doesn’t have a clear cut number one receiver like last week. Instead, they will face a Beavers offense that has spread out their numbers among three receivers and two quarterbacks. Jim Leavitt will need to scheme the defense to rush the passer against a team that has given up 46 sacks. The secondary can’t double one guy, they have to play man to man assignment football.
  • Ball Control. The offensive line must do its job in third down situations. The Beavers are allowing 50% third down conversions while converting a paltry 36% themselves. OSU is actually winning the TOP battle on the season by a little over a minute per game. The OL will likely won’t be tested as the Beavers have only gotten 13 sacks.
  • Run defense. For seemingly the umpteenth week in a row, the Ducks are facing a running back that is ranked in the top 10 in rushing in FBS. Contain Jermar Jefferson and life gets easier for an injury decimated front seven. Tackling once again will be at a premium.

Keys to an Oregon loss

  • Mentality. The Beavers aren’t good but you know that saying about rivalry games and records? This applies. The Ducks must not allow the inferior Beavers to hang around and think that they have a chance. Take the lead early and pour it on.
  • Offensive scheme. Marcus Arroyo continues to confound and demoralize with his inconsistencies as a play caller. One half, he’s the next coming of Sean McVay, the next, he’s worse than Jeff Fisher. Some good consistency would be nice. The defense is trying but the offense has left them exposed countless times by not performing on their end.
  • Justin Herbert. Physically, he looks the part of QB1 but mentally, he just doesn’t have it for some reason in 2018. He needs to learn how to maintain confidence instead of just losing his wits any time anything is off. Yes, I know the receivers aren’t what we expected them to be but he needs to keep feeding everyone instead of defaulting to Mitchell every single time something is wrong with the others. I’m beginning to wonder if he’s seeing ghosts out there and isn’t allowed to audible out of calls.

What are the odds?

The WestGate Superbook has Oregon as 17 point favorites. No O/U . No money line.

William Hill has Oregon as 17 point favorites. No O/U. No money line

MyBookie.ag has Oregon as 17.5 point favorites. O/U is set at 69. The money line is Oregon -910 0SU +655

Score prediction

Oregon 40 OSU 21