Quick turnover this week. Last week I guess I should have gone with just the numbers and predicted a super close game. S&P nailed the point differential amazingly enough. Although if our turnover luck had held to its season average we should have Blown ASU out. Owell an ugly win is still a win.
Tuesday night I took my oldest daughter to Sonic drive in to get some ice cream after dinner. while we were driving home she said she wanted to take a trip and go on an airplane. I asked her where she wanted to go on an airplane trip to? She said she wanted to go to Oregon so she could see the football players. so now I am looking up ticket prices for trips to games next year. Although if the Ducks can get picked for the Alamo Bowl then I can get out on the cheep and just take her down the street to watch the game. SO come on Chaos and get us picked for the Alamo Bowl.
I was able to get some good bbq for a work lunch for my employees for Thanks Giving. I went and picked up the 15 lbs of meat. it was really difficult driving back to the office and not sneaking a bite. Had the best air freshener ever on the way home the smell of bbq still lingered.
ok enough of me waxing,
ON TO THE STATS
Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.
|Ducks S&P OVERALL||Beavers S&P OVERALL|
|S&P+ Rk:||50||S&P+ Rk:||121|
|Off. S&P+ Rk:||29||Off. S&P+ Rk:||71|
|Def. S&P+ Rk:||70||Def. S&P+ Rk:||129|
|Special Teams S&P+ Rk:||99||Special Teams S&P+ Rk:||102|
|Résumé S&P+ Rk:||46||Résumé S&P+ Rk:||112|
|Strength of Schedule Rk:||53||Strength of Schedule Rk:||33|
The Beavers are the worst defense we will have faced this year. the Beavers actually have a better offense than several teams we have faced. Special teams we are pretty neck and neck. S&P predicts us to win this one by 18.3 points.
|FIELD POSITION||Avg. FP||32.2||19||30.6||98|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opp.||5.01||25||5.44||124|
|TURNOVERS||Expected TO Margin||3.2||43||TO Luck (PPG):||-1.4|
|Actual TO Margin||0||70|
|FIELD POSITION||Avg. FP||28.7||98||29.3||69|
|FINISHING DRIVES||Pts. Per Scoring Opp.||4.21||96||4.49||66|
|TURNOVERS||Expected TO Margin||-5.6||115||TO Luck (PPG):||-0.2|
|Actual TO Margin||-6||103|
OK, the world is trying to trick me into losing all my panic for the game. there is literally no way the OSU defense should even put up a fight in this game. and their offense will do some things but not enough. They will turn the ball over and we should be able to add to our turnover margin / turnover luck for the season.
|RUSHING||RUSHING S&P+||100.4||59||74.2||130||PASSING||PASSING S&P+||106.5||33||91.2||113|
|Rushing marginal efficiency*||-7.00%||78||5.40%||129||Passing marginal efficiency*||1.20%||42||6.80%||127|
|Rushing marginal explosiveness*||-0.15||105||0.14||124||Passing marginal explosiveness*||33.00%||28||0.21||73|
|Opportunity rate*||46.10%||84||58.50%||128||Passing completion rate*||58.50%||83||63.40%||109|
|Stuff rate*||17.30%||43||15.10%||117||Sack rate*||4.60%||37||2.90%||128|
|STANDARD DOWNS||STANDARD DOWNS S&P+||97.2||88||85.1||129||PASSING DOWNS||PASSING DOWNS S&P+||117.4||8||81.5||129|
|SD marginal efficiency*||-5.00%||78||5.30%||128||PD marginal efficiency*||1.40%||22||8.40%||129|
|SD marginal explosiveness*||0.01||89||0.16||115||PD marginal explosiveness*||0.27||23||0.21||98|
|SD line yards per carry*||2.47||79||2.89||123||PD line yards per carry*||2.57||80||3.56||129|
|SD sack rate*||3.70%||36||2.00%||126||PD sack rate*||5.70%||36||4.60%||120|
|RUSHING||RUSHING S&P+||104.5||43||101.9||66||PASSING||PASSING S&P+||97.1||86||100||71|
|Rushing marginal efficiency*||-5.10%||48||-9.30%||39||Passing marginal efficiency*||0.90%||49||-0.70%||73|
|Rushing marginal explosiveness*||0.04||22||-0.08||73||Passing marginal explosiveness*||3.40%||116||0.24||84|
|Opportunity rate*||43.80%||96||47.50%||78||Passing completion rate*||61.00%||54||57.20%||42|
|Stuff rate*||23.10%||114||18.10%||81||Sack rate*||11.20%||125||6.00%||72|
|STANDARD DOWNS||STANDARD DOWNS S&P+||103.4||48||98.9||83||PASSING DOWNS||PASSING DOWNS S&P+||95.8||88||109.3||33|
|SD marginal efficiency*||-0.90%||34||-3.70%||77||PD marginal efficiency*||-3.40%||66||-8.00%||23|
|SD marginal explosiveness*||0.1||38||0.09||93||PD marginal explosiveness*||-0.13||118||0.1||73|
|SD line yards per carry*||2.12||121||2.44||58||PD line yards per carry*||3.07||26||2.61||57|
|SD sack rate*||10.80%||128||4.30%||83||PD sack rate*||11.60%||111||8.40%||53|
The Beavers defense is bad, we can pass or run pretty much on any down and it should be successful. if we struggle to produce then FIRE ARROYO!!! on offense the Beavers can move the ball on the ground, they do give up a bunch of sacks and should not be able to produce explosive plays passing. I have not watched almost any Beaver football this year but our D-line should live in their backfield, and the DB's should be able to stay with their receivers.
|BILL WALSH STATS||DUCKS||BEAVERS||DUCKS||BEAVERS|
|OPEN PLAY||Standard Downs success rate||45.80%||85||56.20%||127||THIRD DOWN||Third-and-long percentage||46.50%||40||45.50%||102|
|Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd||61.00%||126||69.90%||84||Third-and-short percentage||11.20%||47||10.50%||78|
|Big-play rate (20+ yards)||9.40%||24||11.30%||125||Third-and-long success rate||32.90%||17||29.20%||99|
|Avg. third-down distance||6.6||13||6.6||118||Third-and-medium success rate||45.80%||89||61.90%||129|
|Third down success rate||47.20%||18||51.90%||128||Third-and-short success rate||84.20%||27||86.70%||115|
|BACKED UP||Backed up success rate||42.10%||45||50.00%||103||Offense||Rk||Defense||Rk|
|Backed up turnover rate||5.30%||106||0.00%||42||RED ZONE||21- to 30-yard line success rate||41.80%||58||48.80%||111|
|DUCKS||BEAVERS||11- to 20-yard line success rate||46.70%||27||45.50%||106|
|Offense||Rk||Defense||Rk||Inside 10 success rate||50.70%||61||64.50%||125|
|BLITZ DOWNS||Blitz down success rate||36.70%||12||36.00%||117||Inside 10 turnover rate||4.40%||120||1.60%||55|
|Blitz down big-play rate||12.50%||14||10.10%||99||First-and-goal success rate||53.60%||64||64.30%||111|
|Blitz down sack rate||6.70%||34||5.60%||112||Goal line success rate||78.60%||24||70.00%||81|
|OPEN PLAY||Standard Downs success rate||48.70%||57||46.50%||57||THIRD DOWN||Third-and-long percentage||55.30%||111||45.20%||106|
|Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd||67.00%||81||70.70%||93||Third-and-short percentage||9.90%||70||10.10%||65|
|Big-play rate (20+ yards)||9.00%||33||7.10%||61||Third-and-long success rate||22.00%||89||19.70%||29|
|Avg. third-down distance||8.8||129||7.2||89||Third-and-medium success rate||46.00%||87||41.30%||20|
|Third down success rate||36.80%||88||35.30%||39||Third-and-short success rate||83.30%||29||88.20%||121|
|BACKED UP||Backed up success rate||30.80%||87||50.00%||103||Offense||Rk||Defense||Rk|
|Backed up turnover rate||7.70%||116||0.00%||42||RED ZONE||21- to 30-yard line success rate||38.60%||86||46.30%||101|
|BEAVERS||DUCKS||11- to 20-yard line success rate||32.20%||110||35.60%||51|
|Offense||Rk||Defense||Rk||Inside 10 success rate||62.10%||6||39.20%||20|
|BLITZ DOWNS||Blitz down success rate||27.70%||81||26.70%||55||Inside 10 turnover rate||1.50%||64||0.00%||63|
|Blitz down big-play rate||5.80%||109||6.00%||30||First-and-goal success rate||76.00%||1||45.00%||38|
|Blitz down sack rate||12.00%||91||13.00%||28||Goal line success rate||61.50%||76||61.50%||54|
if I hadn't mentioned it before OSU's defense should in no way get any pressure or be able to stop our offense. We should bully them up and down the field. their offense on the other hand does not do a great job of staying on schedule so we should be able to force some 3rd and long. We need to make sure we force punts. if OSU can get within the Duck 10 yard line on offense they are one of the best teams in the country at scoring from point blank. We just have to keep them outside the 10 yard line and it looks like they will pretty much sputter out.
|OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT||Category||Team||Rk||Nat'l Avg||DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT||Category||Team||Rk||Nat'l Avg|
|Standard Downs run rate*||61.10%||47||59.70%||Standard Downs run rate*||57.50%||87||59.60%|
|Passing Downs run rate*||28.80%||102||34.60%||Passing Downs run rate*||33.80%||73||34.60%|
|Adj. Pace**||-2.7||14||0||Overall Havoc Rate||17.40%||39||16.20%|
|% of Solo Tackles||74.90%||50||72.90%||DL Havoc Rate||3.70%||97||5.10%|
|Havoc Rate Allowed||14.50%||45||15.70%||LB Havoc Rate||6.70%||11||4.60%|
|DB Havoc Rate||7.10%||45||6.60%|
|PD to INC||45.60%||3||34.50%|
|OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT||Category||Team||Rk||Nat'l Avg||DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT||Category||Team||Rk||Nat'l Avg|
|Standard Downs run rate*||56.70%||73||59.70%||Standard Downs run rate*||59.20%||67||59.60%|
|Passing Downs run rate*||26.70%||110||34.60%||Passing Downs run rate*||34.60%||64||34.60%|
|Adj. Pace**||-1.7||33||0||Overall Havoc Rate||11.50%||125||16.20%|
|% of Solo Tackles||82.40%||11||72.90%||DL Havoc Rate||1.80%||128||5.10%|
|Havoc Rate Allowed||17.80%||102||15.70%||LB Havoc Rate||5.40%||40||4.60%|
|DB Havoc Rate||4.30%||120||6.60%|
|PD to INC||27.70%||114||34.50%|
Looks like the Beavers do a good job of getting their players into one vs one spots. which could stretch us out and cause miss matches. On Defense they shouldn't cause pressure on our line or Herbert, and they shouldn't be able to deflect or intercept the ball. So if the Ducks can get out of their own heads and catch the damn ball it would be nice.
|DUCKS SPECIAL TEAMS||Category||Rate||Rk||BEAVER SPECAIL TEAMS||Category||Rate||Rk|
|FG value (per kick)||-0.58||127||FG value (per kick)||-0.25||108|
|Punt efficiency||59.30%||68||Punt efficiency||61.70%||61|
|Kickoff efficiency||81.40%||53||Kickoff efficiency||83.00%||49|
|Punt return efficiency||65.00%||17||Punt return efficiency||30.00%||119|
|Kick return efficiency||62.10%||19||Kick return efficiency||37.10%||95|
Big difference in special teams is the Ducks are much better at returning punts and kicks. otherwise its a wash.
SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Beavers will hang around on offense if we let them, but they should not be able to hang with us because of how much worse their defense is than ours. This should be a massive blow out just like S&P predicts.
DUCKS 56 - BEAVERS 21
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