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Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such Civil War 2018

By on Nov 21, 2018, 10:08am PST 12

EUGENE, OR - SEPTEMBER 08: Tight end Kano Dillon #85 of the Oregon Ducks celebrates with teammates on the sideline after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter of the game at Autzen Stadium on September 8, 2018 in Eugene, Oregon. - Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Quick turnover this week. Last week I guess I should have gone with just the numbers and predicted a super close game. S&P nailed the point differential amazingly enough. Although if our turnover luck had held to its season average we should have Blown ASU out. Owell an ugly win is still a win.

Tuesday night I took my oldest daughter to Sonic drive in to get some ice cream after dinner. while we were driving home she said she wanted to take a trip and go on an airplane. I asked her where she wanted to go on an airplane trip to? She said she wanted to go to Oregon so she could see the football players. so now I am looking up ticket prices for trips to games next year. Although if the Ducks can get picked for the Alamo Bowl then I can get out on the cheep and just take her down the street to watch the game. SO come on Chaos and get us picked for the Alamo Bowl.

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I was able to get some good bbq for a work lunch for my employees for Thanks Giving. I went and picked up the 15 lbs of meat. it was really difficult driving back to the office and not sneaking a bite. Had the best air freshener ever on the way home the smell of bbq still lingered.

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ok enough of me waxing,

ON TO THE STATS

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

2018 S&P Stats

Ducks S&P OVERALL Beavers S&P OVERALL
S&P+ Rk: 50 S&P+ Rk: 121
Off. S&P+ Rk: 29 Off. S&P+ Rk: 71
Def. S&P+ Rk: 70 Def. S&P+ Rk: 129
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 99 Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 102
Résumé S&P+ Rk: 46 Résumé S&P+ Rk: 112
Strength of Schedule Rk: 53 Strength of Schedule Rk: 33

The Beavers are the worst defense we will have faced this year. the Beavers actually have a better offense than several teams we have faced. Special teams we are pretty neck and neck. S&P predicts us to win this one by 18.3 points.

Five Factors DUCKS BEAVERS
Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 43.40% 50 53.10% 129
Marginal Efficiency* -3.00% 56 6.00% 129
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.19 51 1.3 114
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.08 52 0.17 114
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 32.2 19 30.6 98
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 5.01 25 5.44 124
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 3.2 43 TO Luck (PPG): -1.4
Actual TO Margin 0 70
Five Factors BEAVERS DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 41.10% 81 40.90% 61
Marginal Efficiency* -1.90% 40 -5.00% 56
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.19 46 1.18 68
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.04 78 0.09 89
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 28.7 98 29.3 69
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.21 96 4.49 66
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin -5.6 115 TO Luck (PPG): -0.2
Actual TO Margin -6 103

OK, the world is trying to trick me into losing all my panic for the game. there is literally no way the OSU defense should even put up a fight in this game. and their offense will do some things but not enough. They will turn the ball over and we should be able to add to our turnover margin / turnover luck for the season.

THE BASICS DUCKS BEAVERS DUCKS BEAVERS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 100.4 59 74.2 130 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 106.5 33 91.2 113
Rushing marginal efficiency* -7.00% 78 5.40% 129 Passing marginal efficiency* 1.20% 42 6.80% 127
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.15 105 0.14 124 Passing marginal explosiveness* 33.00% 28 0.21 73
Opportunity rate* 46.10% 84 58.50% 128 Passing completion rate* 58.50% 83 63.40% 109
Stuff rate* 17.30% 43 15.10% 117 Sack rate* 4.60% 37 2.90% 128
DUCKS BEAVERS DUCKS BEAVERS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 97.2 88 85.1 129 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 117.4 8 81.5 129
SD marginal efficiency* -5.00% 78 5.30% 128 PD marginal efficiency* 1.40% 22 8.40% 129
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.01 89 0.16 115 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.27 23 0.21 98
SD line yards per carry* 2.47 79 2.89 123 PD line yards per carry* 2.57 80 3.56 129
SD sack rate* 3.70% 36 2.00% 126 PD sack rate* 5.70% 36 4.60% 120
BEAVERS DUCKS BEAVERS DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 104.5 43 101.9 66 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 97.1 86 100 71
Rushing marginal efficiency* -5.10% 48 -9.30% 39 Passing marginal efficiency* 0.90% 49 -0.70% 73
Rushing marginal explosiveness* 0.04 22 -0.08 73 Passing marginal explosiveness* 3.40% 116 0.24 84
Opportunity rate* 43.80% 96 47.50% 78 Passing completion rate* 61.00% 54 57.20% 42
Stuff rate* 23.10% 114 18.10% 81 Sack rate* 11.20% 125 6.00% 72
BEAVERS DUCKS BEAVERS DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 103.4 48 98.9 83 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 95.8 88 109.3 33
SD marginal efficiency* -0.90% 34 -3.70% 77 PD marginal efficiency* -3.40% 66 -8.00% 23
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.1 38 0.09 93 PD marginal explosiveness* -0.13 118 0.1 73
SD line yards per carry* 2.12 121 2.44 58 PD line yards per carry* 3.07 26 2.61 57
SD sack rate* 10.80% 128 4.30% 83 PD sack rate* 11.60% 111 8.40% 53

The Beavers defense is bad, we can pass or run pretty much on any down and it should be successful. if we struggle to produce then FIRE ARROYO!!! on offense the Beavers can move the ball on the ground, they do give up a bunch of sacks and should not be able to produce explosive plays passing. I have not watched almost any Beaver football this year but our D-line should live in their backfield, and the DB's should be able to stay with their receivers.

BILL WALSH STATS DUCKS BEAVERS DUCKS BEAVERS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 45.80% 85 56.20% 127 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 46.50% 40 45.50% 102
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 61.00% 126 69.90% 84 Third-and-short percentage 11.20% 47 10.50% 78
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 9.40% 24 11.30% 125 Third-and-long success rate 32.90% 17 29.20% 99
Avg. third-down distance 6.6 13 6.6 118 Third-and-medium success rate 45.80% 89 61.90% 129
Third down success rate 47.20% 18 51.90% 128 Third-and-short success rate 84.20% 27 86.70% 115
DUCKS BEAVERS
Offense Rk Defense Rk DUCKS BEAVERS
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 42.10% 45 50.00% 103 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 5.30% 106 0.00% 42 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 41.80% 58 48.80% 111
DUCKS BEAVERS 11- to 20-yard line success rate 46.70% 27 45.50% 106
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 50.70% 61 64.50% 125
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 36.70% 12 36.00% 117 Inside 10 turnover rate 4.40% 120 1.60% 55
Blitz down big-play rate 12.50% 14 10.10% 99 First-and-goal success rate 53.60% 64 64.30% 111
Blitz down sack rate 6.70% 34 5.60% 112 Goal line success rate 78.60% 24 70.00% 81
BEAVERS DUCKS BEAVERS DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 48.70% 57 46.50% 57 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 55.30% 111 45.20% 106
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 67.00% 81 70.70% 93 Third-and-short percentage 9.90% 70 10.10% 65
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 9.00% 33 7.10% 61 Third-and-long success rate 22.00% 89 19.70% 29
Avg. third-down distance 8.8 129 7.2 89 Third-and-medium success rate 46.00% 87 41.30% 20
Third down success rate 36.80% 88 35.30% 39 Third-and-short success rate 83.30% 29 88.20% 121
BEAVERS DUCKS
Offense Rk Defense Rk BEAVERS DUCKS
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 30.80% 87 50.00% 103 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 7.70% 116 0.00% 42 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 38.60% 86 46.30% 101
BEAVERS DUCKS 11- to 20-yard line success rate 32.20% 110 35.60% 51
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 62.10% 6 39.20% 20
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 27.70% 81 26.70% 55 Inside 10 turnover rate 1.50% 64 0.00% 63
Blitz down big-play rate 5.80% 109 6.00% 30 First-and-goal success rate 76.00% 1 45.00% 38
Blitz down sack rate 12.00% 91 13.00% 28 Goal line success rate 61.50% 76 61.50% 54

if I hadn't mentioned it before OSU's defense should in no way get any pressure or be able to stop our offense. We should bully them up and down the field. their offense on the other hand does not do a great job of staying on schedule so we should be able to force some 3rd and long. We need to make sure we force punts. if OSU can get within the Duck 10 yard line on offense they are one of the best teams in the country at scoring from point blank. We just have to keep them outside the 10 yard line and it looks like they will pretty much sputter out.

DUCK PRINTS
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 61.10% 47 59.70% Standard Downs run rate* 57.50% 87 59.60%
Passing Downs run rate* 28.80% 102 34.60% Passing Downs run rate* 33.80% 73 34.60%
Adj. Pace** -2.7 14 0 Overall Havoc Rate 17.40% 39 16.20%
% of Solo Tackles 74.90% 50 72.90% DL Havoc Rate 3.70% 97 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 14.50% 45 15.70% LB Havoc Rate 6.70% 11 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 7.10% 45 6.60%
PD to INC 45.60% 3 34.50%
BEAVER PRINTS
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 56.70% 73 59.70% Standard Downs run rate* 59.20% 67 59.60%
Passing Downs run rate* 26.70% 110 34.60% Passing Downs run rate* 34.60% 64 34.60%
Adj. Pace** -1.7 33 0 Overall Havoc Rate 11.50% 125 16.20%
% of Solo Tackles 82.40% 11 72.90% DL Havoc Rate 1.80% 128 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 17.80% 102 15.70% LB Havoc Rate 5.40% 40 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 4.30% 120 6.60%
PD to INC 27.70% 114 34.50%

Looks like the Beavers do a good job of getting their players into one vs one spots. which could stretch us out and cause miss matches. On Defense they shouldn't cause pressure on our line or Herbert, and they shouldn't be able to deflect or intercept the ball. So if the Ducks can get out of their own heads and catch the damn ball it would be nice.

DUCKS SPECIAL TEAMS Category Rate Rk BEAVER SPECAIL TEAMS Category Rate Rk
FG value (per kick) -0.58 127 FG value (per kick) -0.25 108
Punt efficiency 59.30% 68 Punt efficiency 61.70% 61
Kickoff efficiency 81.40% 53 Kickoff efficiency 83.00% 49
Punt return efficiency 65.00% 17 Punt return efficiency 30.00% 119
Kick return efficiency 62.10% 19 Kick return efficiency 37.10% 95

Big difference in special teams is the Ducks are much better at returning punts and kicks. otherwise its a wash.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Beavers will hang around on offense if we let them, but they should not be able to hang with us because of how much worse their defense is than ours. This should be a massive blow out just like S&P predicts.

BOLD PREDICTION

DUCKS 56 - BEAVERS 21

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