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Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such Utah 2018

By on Nov 6, 2018, 2:21pm PST 20

Oct 27, 2018; Tucson, AZ, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal calls to his players during the first half against the Arizona Wildcats at Arizona Stadium. - Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

Another Week down. The UCLA game I predicted would come down to Chaos. I was largely correct. I didn't anticipate we would destroy them on special teams so handily, But the blue print has been there for weeks in our special teams numbers. I have also been saying for weeks that if we attempt a field goal rather than going for it or punting it then we are giving points away. That was confirmed with our awful close range miss. We would have been better off going for it and getting a turn over on downs near the goal line than kicking. but I digress.

We took 3/4 of the kids to a small local zoo called the snake farm on Saturday. The Twins has a great time walking around pointing at animals and calling them all dog. The boy did very well in the petting zoo portion. The girl was going where she wanted to go and was not listening so I spent most of my time chasing her all over. I am seriously considering one of those child leash deals.

kidleash.0.jpg

after my allotted exercise for the week we grabbed some Blizzards from DQ and headed home so I could wait for Kick off. the Kids ended up eating more of my Blizzard than I did but that's my life now. I got to watch a little bit of a few games but spent most of the time flipping between kids shows. I wished I had gotten a chance to watch the Utah ASU game as it would have helped with interpreting the Utes numbers this week. owell.

I did finally click on the link to the advanced boxscore from Bill Connelly.

ASU Vs Utah

it is a pretty cool break down of the game. Utah played really poorly on both sides and it looks like before he was injured their starting QB was not doing well, but he seemed to be much better than his understudy. by the way don't look at the UCLA VS Oregon one as it paints a very disturbing picture of our running defense and offense.

Anyways ON TO THE STATS

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

2018 S&P STATS

DUCK'S S&P OVERALL UTE'S S&P OVERALL
S&P+ Rk: 54 S&P+ Rk: 19
Off. S&P+ Rk: 28 Off. S&P+ Rk: 36
Def. S&P+ Rk: 82 Def. S&P+ Rk: 26
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 94 Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 4
Résumé S&P+ Rk: 48 Résumé S&P+ Rk: 16
Strength of Schedule Rk: 67 Strength of Schedule Rk: 40

if every one were healthy in Utah, we would have 0 shot at this game. S&P hates us this year. it loved our offense until the washington game then WSU and Arizona made the computers stop. They have never liked our defense or special teams and both have been hovering in the bottom third of college football all season. Utah had one of their worst performances on defense for the year last week, and their offense was not much better. one thing we should be especially cautious of is their special teams are as good as ever. we will not get the same performance out of our special teams as we did against UCLA.

Five Factors
 Oregon Utah
Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 44.70% 38 37.20% 24
Marginal Efficiency* -2.80% 53 -8.50% 18
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.15 87 1.13 55
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.08 58 0 51
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 32.4 17 28.5 47
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 5.02 30 3.84 22
Oregon
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 1 59 TO Luck (PPG): 1.7
Actual TO Margin 4 27
Utah Oregon
Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 45.00% 35 41.90% 76
Marginal Efficiency* -1.80% 41 -4.40% 68
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.14 92 1.15 61
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.04 79 0.06 71
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 30.9 40 29 66
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.54 75 4.42 63
Utah
TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin 0.4 68 TO Luck (PPG): -1.3
Actual TO Margin -2 83

The Ducks biggest hope for success is Utah's bad turnover margin combined with their inability to score when they get inside their opponents 40 yard line. compounding things for the UTE's is the injury to Huntley. Their back up is a 5'11 195 lbs Freshman. I would anticipate a simplified run first offense for him. He seems to be an inefficient passer, but a decent runner.

THE BASIC's Duck's Ute's Duck's Ute's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 100.3 63 110.1 29 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 107.3 34 103.1 54
Rushing marginal efficiency* -7.70% 88 -12.80% 16 Passing marginal efficiency* 2.30% 33 -4.80% 33
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.12 88 -0.13 46 Passing marginal explosiveness* 30.40% 30 0.12 43
Opportunity rate* 45.20% 86 41.50% 15 Passing completion rate* 58.80% 76 54.50% 22
Stuff rate* 16.20% 31 24.80% 14 Sack rate* 4.00% 32 6.00% 69
Duck's Ute's Duck's Ute's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 98.8 72 103.4 55 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 114.1 15 111 28
SD marginal efficiency* -4.90% 79 -8.30% 22 PD marginal efficiency* 2.10% 16 -8.90% 20
SD marginal explosiveness* 0.02 81 0.06 77 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.25 29 -0.15 13
SD line yards per carry* 2.45 78 2.09 14 PD line yards per carry* 2.68 66 1.91 15
SD sack rate* 3.90% 43 5.80% 45 PD sack rate* 4.20% 27 6.20% 90
Ute's Duck's Ute's Duck's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
RUSHING RUSHING S&P+ 111.6 20 97.6 89 PASSING PASSING S&P+ 104.7 48 98.4 84
Rushing marginal efficiency* -2.90% 24 -8.40% 50 Passing marginal efficiency* -0.60% 66 -0.50% 75
Rushing marginal explosiveness* -0.03 46 -0.14 45 Passing marginal explosiveness* 11.50% 99 0.22 81
Opportunity rate* 54.10% 15 48.00% 86 Passing completion rate* 62.60% 39 58.20% 54
Stuff rate* 17.40% 45 17.70% 86 Sack rate* 8.90% 113 5.70% 82
Ute's Duck's Ute's Duck's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
STANDARD DOWNS STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ 108.9 21 97.1 89 PASSING DOWNS PASSING DOWNS S&P+ 104.6 44 105.8 49
SD marginal efficiency* -0.70% 31 -3.40% 79 PD marginal efficiency* -4.60% 81 -6.50% 41
SD marginal explosiveness* 0 93 0.05 72 PD marginal explosiveness* 0.18 48 0.07 61
SD line yards per carry* 2.82 18 2.46 66 PD line yards per carry* 2.8 56 2.75 79
SD sack rate* 8.30% 116 4.10% 86 PD sack rate* 9.60% 93 8.10% 62

Oregon should have success passing the ball. Oregon is unlikely to have much success running. Utah gets good pressure disrupting running plays, but they do not get good pressure on the QB. We should see a healthy dose of the Ute's running game as it is very good. Hopefully Leavitt figures a way around our injuries to linebackers and is able to stop the run. Our best shot is to stack the box and make them beat us with the pass.

Bill Walsh Stats
 Duck's Ute's Duck's Ute's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 48.00% 63 42.40% 24 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 43.90% 27 52.90% 39
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 61.90% 120 62.60% 14 Third-and-short percentage 13.00% 29 7.40% 25
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 9.60% 19 6.00% 31 Third-and-long success rate 31.20% 26 18.10% 23
Avg. third-down distance 6.4 8 7.7 50 Third-and-medium success rate 46.70% 82 46.30% 58
Third down success rate 47.40% 18 32.70% 25 Third-and-short success rate 83.30% 31 60.00% 16
Duck's Ute's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Duck's Ute's
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 42.10% 46 25.00% 33 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 5.30% 109 5.00% 22 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 38.00% 93 47.10% 98
Duck's Ute's 11- to 20-yard line success rate 52.00% 12 15.60% 1
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 48.40% 77 41.50% 32
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 35.80% 20 23.20% 22 Inside 10 turnover rate 4.70% 120 4.90% 16
Blitz down big-play rate 11.60% 21 5.60% 32 First-and-goal success rate 50.00% 82 42.90% 38
Blitz down sack rate 5.90% 32 7.70% 81 Goal line success rate 78.60% 30 71.40% 80
Ute's Duck's Ute's Duck's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Offense Rk Defense Rk
OPEN PLAY Standard Downs success rate 52.10% 24 46.60% 63 THIRD DOWN Third-and-long percentage 36.70% 6 43.00% 118
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd 66.20% 89 68.90% 72 Third-and-short percentage 9.40% 81 11.10% 83
Big-play rate (20+ yards) 8.00% 60 6.70% 44 Third-and-long success rate 25.50% 63 19.00% 28
Avg. third-down distance 6.2 4 6.7 112 Third-and-medium success rate 46.40% 85 48.40% 74
Third down success rate 43.60% 39 37.50% 56 Third-and-short success rate 83.30% 31 86.70% 112
Ute's Duck's
Offense Rk Defense Rk Ute's Duck's
BACKED UP Backed up success rate 14.30% 125 53.30% 115 Offense Rk Defense Rk
Backed up turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 35 RED ZONE 21- to 30-yard line success rate 37.80% 94 48.50% 107
Ute's Duck's 11- to 20-yard line success rate 35.00% 92 34.00% 37
Offense Rk Defense Rk Inside 10 success rate 53.70% 41 41.70% 33
BLITZ DOWNS Blitz down success rate 32.10% 44 29.00% 69 Inside 10 turnover rate 0.00% 1 0.00% 59
Blitz down big-play rate 9.50% 47 5.40% 28 First-and-goal success rate 53.90% 61 46.20% 46
Blitz down sack rate 9.50% 68 11.80% 41 Goal line success rate 58.30% 89 71.40% 80

It looks like if we are able to do what we have been doing on offense we can be successful in this game. it seems the offensive philosophy of both teams is similar. they try to keep on schedule and grind you up to keep 3rd down manageable. if we can force them in to 3rd & long we will have success on defense, but they are very good at avoiding 3rd & long.

DUCK'S
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Justin Herbert 6'6, 233 JR 173 292 2333 22-6 59.20% 13.5 3.90% 7.4 3.50% 0.33
Braxton Burmeister 6'1, 206 SO 4 8 27 0-0 50.00% 6.8 0.00% 3.4 -16.50% -0.86
Blake Maimone 6'6, 227 JR 1 1 28 0-0 100.00% 28 0.00% 28 74.20% 1.49
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 140 690 4.9 5 4.67 45.00% -1.90% -0.01 1 (1)
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 74 348 4.7 2 5.02 40.50% -1.50% -0.02 2 (2)
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 52 293 5.6 4 4.56 57.70% 7.70% -0.03 0 (0)
Justin Herbert QB 6'6, 233 JR 40 231 5.8 2 5.02 60.00% 3.50% -0.03 2 (0)
Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6'1, 210 FR 18 36 2 7 2.25 33.30% 16.50% -0.04 1 (0)
Darrian Felix RB 5'11, 191 SO 14 47 3.4 0 2.43 42.90% -8.40% -0.17 0 (0)
Taj Griffin RB 5'11, 178 SR 6 31 5.2 0 1.17 100.00% 17.80% -0.14 0 (0)
Braxton Burmeister QB 6'1, 206 SO 4 18 4.5 0 2.25 50.00% 2.70% -0.38 0 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Dillon Mitchell WR 6'2, 189 JR 95 56 833 6 58.90% 14.9 8.8 7.70% 0.34
Jaylon Redd WR 5'8, 178 SO 36 23 275 5 63.90% 12 7.6 3.80% 0.26
Jacob Breeland TE 6'5, 248 JR 32 19 301 2 59.40% 15.8 9.4 -3.00% 0.66
Johnny Johnson III WR 6'0, 197 SO 29 11 185 4 37.90% 16.8 6.4 -3.70% 0.53
Brenden Schooler WR 6'2, 193 JR 26 16 156 1 61.50% 9.8 6 -2.50% -0.15
CJ Verdell RB 5'9, 201 FR 21 17 187 0 81.00% 11 8.9 19.60% 0.08
Kano Dillon TE 6'5, 265 SR 16 8 110 2 50.00% 13.8 6.9 -2.10% 0.64
Ryan Bay TE 6'3, 240 JR 10 7 54 0 70.00% 7.7 5.4 -6.70% -0.12
Travis Dye RB 5'10, 197 FR 8 8 65 0 100.00% 8.1 8.1 29.50% -0.45
Tabari Hines WR 5'10, 175 SR 5 3 32 1 60.00% 10.7 6.4 4.80% 0.8
Tony Brooks-James RB 5'9, 190 SR 4 3 73 0 75.00% 24.3 18.3 39.50% 0.62
Taj Griffin RB 5'11, 178 SR 3 2 89 1 66.70% 44.5 29.7 24.20% 2.91
Daewood Davis WR 6'2, 178 FR 2 1 13 0 50.00% 13 6.5 27.60% -0.83
Darrian Felix RB 5'11, 191 SO 2 1 1 0 50.00% 1 0.5 -30.30% 0
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Troy Dye ILB 6'4, 224 JR 62 3.5 0 4.5 1 (4) 0 4.7 -2.80% -0.27
Kaulana Apelu ILB 5'10, 208 SR 43.5 5 2 6.5 0 (4) 0 4.8 2.80% -0.3
Justin Hollins OLB 6'5, 242 SR 35 10 5 10.5 1 (7) 4 1.9 -5.80% -0.09
Jalen Jelks DE 6'6, 245 SR 34 6 3.5 8.5 0 (1) 1 2.3 -12.30% -0.29
Thomas Graham Jr. CB 5'11, 191 SO 31 2 0 1 1 (9) 0 10.4 32.30% 0.1
Deommodore Lenoir CB 5'11, 196 SO 30.5 0 0 0 3 (5) 0 13 45.00% -0.11
Ugochukwu Amadi S 5'10, 201 SR 29.5 3 1.5 5 3 (6) 0 7.6 13.00% -0.1
Nick Pickett S 6'1, 200 SO 28.5 0 0 1.5 0 (1) 0 11.7 38.40% 0
Gary Baker DL 6'3, 310 JR 23 1 0 3 0 (0) 0 3.2 -29.50% -0.2
Jevon Holland S 6'1, 192 FR 22 0 0 0 4 (4) 0 12.7 36.90% 0.19
Jordon Scott DL 6'1, 329 SO 18.5 3.5 1 7.5 0 (1) 0 0.8 -36.10% -0.55
Austin Faoliu DL 6'3, 285 SO 18.5 1 1 3.5 0 (1) 0 2.8 -11.80% -0.62
Isaac Slade-Matautia ILB 6'1, 220 FR 16.5 2 0 3 0 (1) 0 6.5 3.30% 0.09
La'Mar Winston Jr. OLB 6'2, 233 JR 15.5 0.5 0.5 2 0 (2) 0 5.6 1.40% -0.47
Drayton Carlberg DL 6'5, 282 JR 9.5 2.5 2.5 4.5 0 (0) 1 -0.6 -36.20% -0.8
Adrian Jackson ILB 6'2, 218 FR 6 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 2.3 -38.90% NULL
Sampson Niu ILB 6'1, 212 SO 6 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 5.8 21.70% -0.61
Keith Simms OLB 6'3, 227 SO 6 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 5.9 6.80% -0.16
Gus Cumberlander DL 6'7, 251 JR 5.5 2 2 2 0 (0) 0 0 -11.30% -0.65
Mattrell McGraw S 5'10, 196 SR 3 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 3 -43.40% NULL
Popo Aumavae DL 6'3, 303 FR 2 1 0 1 0 (0) 0 0.3 -10.50% -0.3
Brady Breeze S 6'0, 195 SO 2 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 1.5 -40.60% NULL
Verone McKinley III CB 5'10, 183 FR 2 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 3 -38.40% NULL
Pou Peleti-Gore OLB 5'10, 211 SR 1.5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 1 -38.20% NULL
Cyrus Habibi-Likio RB 6'1, 210 FR 1 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 15 71.90% -0.86

UTE'S
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS Player Ht, Wt Year Comp Att Yards TD-INT Comp Rate Yards/Comp Sack Rate Yards/Att. Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Tyler Huntley 6'1, 200 JR 150 234 1788 12-6 0.641 11.9 0.086 6.5 0.033 0.11
Jason Shelley 5'11, 195 FR 6 14 99 0-1 0.429 16.5 0.125 5.6 -0.115 0.67
Britain Covey 5'8, 170 SO 3 3 71 2-0 1 23.7 0 23.7 0.449 1.47
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Rushes Yards Yards/Carry TD Hlt Yds/Opp Opp Rate Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl. Fum (lost)
Zack Moss RB 5'10, 215 JR 179 1092 6.1 11 5.14 0.598 0.068 -0.01 3 (1)
Tyler Huntley QB 6'1, 200 JR 86 440 5.1 4 4.7 0.5 -0.019 -0.02 0 (0)
Armand Shyne RB 5'11, 210 JR 37 166 4.5 2 2.81 0.541 -0.069 -0.06 0 (0)
TJ Green RB 5'11, 195 FR 15 91 6.1 0 3.65 0.667 -0.011 -0.12 0 (0)
Britain Covey WR 5'8, 170 SO 10 85 8.5 0 7.66 0.7 -0.065 -0.2 0 (0)
Jason Shelley QB 5'11, 195 FR 7 57 8.1 0 13.83 0.429 -0.041 -0.16 0 (0)
Devin Brumfield RB 5'10, 211 FR 4 0 0 0 2.1 0.25 -0.445 1 (1)
Mitch Wishnowsky P 6'2, 220 SR 2 39 19.5 0 14 1 0.568 0.1 0 (0)
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Targets Catches Yards TD Catch Rate Yds/Catch Yds/Target Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Britain Covey WR 5'8, 170 SO 66 50 555 1 0.758 11.1 8.4 0.084 -0.03
Demari Simpkins WR 5'10, 176 JR 34 16 221 2 0.471 13.8 6.5 0.002 0.04
Samson Nacua WR 6'3, 195 SO 31 25 306 3 0.806 12.2 9.9 0.16 0.04
Jaylen Dixon WR 5'9, 165 FR 18 10 250 0 0.556 25 13.9 0.03 1.36
Brant Kuithe TE 6'2, 225 FR 16 12 144 1 0.75 12 9 0.022 0.64
Solomon Enis WR 6'3, 196 FR 15 8 110 1 0.533 13.8 7.3 0.01 0.18
Siaosi Mariner WR 6'2, 193 JR 13 8 100 1 0.615 12.5 7.7 -0.034 0.24
Cole Fotheringham TE 6'4, 242 FR 11 7 43 2 0.636 6.1 3.9 0.03 -0.42
Zack Moss RB 5'10, 215 JR 10 8 50 1 0.8 6.3 5 0.049 -0.3
Jake Jackson TE 6'3, 245 JR 8 5 37 1 0.625 7.4 4.6 0.094 -0.18
Bronson Boyd WR 6'0, 190 FR 4 2 40 0 0.5 20 10 0.116 0.46
Jameson Field WR 5'11, 187 SR 3 2 16 0 0.667 8 5.3 -0.064 -0.32
Connor Haller TE 6'2, 230 SO 3 2 12 0 0.667 6 4 -0.064 0.01
TJ Green RB 5'11, 195 FR 3 1 6 0 0.333 6 2 -0.099 -0.53
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS Player Pos. Ht, Wt Year Tackles TFLs Sacks Run Stuffs INT (PBU) FF Yards/Play Marg. Eff. Marg. Expl.
Chase Hansen LB 6'3, 230 SR 60.5 15.5 4 18.5 2 (3) 0 2.7 -0.031 -0.48
Cody Barton LB 6'2, 230 SR 53.5 4 1.5 7 1 (5) 0 5.1 -0.022 -0.3
Corrion Ballard DB 6'3, 200 SR 31 0 0 1.5 1 (5) 1 8 0.249 -0.21
Javelin K. Guidry DB 5'9, 190 SO 29.5 3 0 1 0 (8) 1 7.2 0.119 -0.29
Marquise Blair DB 6'2, 195 SR 28.5 1.5 0 4 0 (2) 0 6.9 0.087 -0.03
Jaylon Johnson DB 6'0, 190 SO 27.5 1 0 1.5 3 (1) 0 11.9 0.395 0.15
Julian Blackmon DB 6'1, 190 JR 23.5 2 0 2 0 (7) 0 10.8 0.243 0.11
Bradlee Anae DE 6'3, 254 JR 20.5 8.5 6 9 0 (3) 1 -0.9 -0.319 -0.79
Donavan Thompson LB 5'10, 224 JR 20 2 1 2 0 (0) 0 5.8 0.101 -0.29
John Penisini DT 6'2, 315 JR 19.5 6 2 7 0 (1) 0 0.8 -0.306 -0.83
Mika Tafua DE 6'3, 250 FR 14.5 5.5 1 5.5 0 (1) 1 1.6 -0.074 -0.61
Maxs Tupai DE 6'1, 242 SO 13.5 1 1 2 0 (1) 0 3.9 -0.059 -0.14
Leki Fotu DT 6'5, 323 JR 12.5 2 1 3.5 0 (0) 0 1.4 -0.239 -0.15
Terrell Burgess DB 6'0, 197 JR 12 0.5 0 1.5 0 (3) 0 11 0.107 0.46
Hauati Pututau DT 6'3, 300 SO 11 3.5 1 3.5 1 (2) 0 0.6 -0.358 -0.52
Tareke Lewis DB 5'11, 180 JR 9 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 10 0.337 -0.27
Caleb Repp DE 6'5, 230 JR 6.5 1 1 1 0 (0) 0 3.3 -0.141 0.01
Francis Bernard LB 6'0, 235 JR 6 1 0 2.5 1 (0) 0 1.5 -0.265 -0.35
Pita Tonga DT 6'1, 301 SO 4 1 0.5 1 1 (0) 0 3.1 -0.23 -0.8
Philip Afia DB 6'1, 201 JR 2.5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 16 0.638 -0.08
Nick Heninger DE 6'2, 244 SO 1.5 1 1 1 0 (1) 0 -0.3 -0.296 NULL
Josh Nurse DB 6'3, 200 JR 1.5 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 8.7 0.616 -0.83
Team Team NULL NULL 1 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 -1 -0.401 NULL
Jesse Burkett C 6'4, 300 SR 1 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 0 -0.301 NULL
Tyrone Young-Smith DB 6'4, 200 JR 1 0 0 0 0 (0) 0 1 -0.34 NULL

Normally I would highlight their tall pass catchers, but who knows if they will be able to get the ball to them to matter.

DUCK PRINTS DUCK
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 61.40% 45 59.50% Standard Downs run rate* 55.40% 103 59.30%
Passing Downs run rate* 28.30% 101 34.60% Passing Downs run rate* 33.90% 67 34.60%
Adj. Pace** -2.77 13 0 Overall Havoc Rate 16.70% 50 16.20%
% of Solo Tackles 75.10% 53 72.70% DL Havoc Rate 3.40% 104 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 13.10% 29 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 7.10% 12 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 6.30% 79 6.50%
PD to INC 45.40% 3 34.20%
UTE PRINTS UTE
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT Category Team Rk Nat'l Avg
Standard Downs run rate* 63.90% 32 59.50% Standard Downs run rate* 54.60% 110 59.30%
Passing Downs run rate* 30.30% 84 34.60% Passing Downs run rate* 32.10% 85 34.60%
Adj. Pace** 0.27 64 0 Overall Havoc Rate 19.40% 16 16.20%
% of Solo Tackles 73.10% 67 72.70% DL Havoc Rate 7.00% 20 5.10%
Havoc Rate Allowed 16.90% 83 15.60% LB Havoc Rate 5.70% 37 4.60%
DB Havoc Rate 6.60% 67 6.50%
PD to INC 37.60% 35 34.20%

During the game I want every one to chant to them selves "teams do not try to run on UTAH" if we all chant it together maybe Arroyo will hear it and just let Herbert pass it all game to open running backs.

OREGON UTAH
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS Category Rate Rk
FG value (per kick) -0.7 127 FG value (per kick) 0.5 19
Punt efficiency 62.80% 51 Punt efficiency 71.40% 21
Kickoff efficiency 81.00% 62 Kickoff efficiency 92.60% 17
Punt return efficiency 73.30% 10 Punt return efficiency 55.00% 36
Kick return efficiency 66.70% 11 Kick return efficiency 50.00% 47

We are good at returning punts and kickoffs, Utah is better at every thing else on special teams.

SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Utah was going to try and beat us with their run game. Now they have to because they are not going to have another option. We need to keep their defense on the field and wear them out early. We need to get ahead early to not let them take advantage of us on special teams or with their running game. I think we can do it even on the road.

BOLD PREDICTION

Oregon shakes off the road blues and wins 35 - 7.

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