Another Week down. The UCLA game I predicted would come down to Chaos. I was largely correct. I didn't anticipate we would destroy them on special teams so handily, But the blue print has been there for weeks in our special teams numbers. I have also been saying for weeks that if we attempt a field goal rather than going for it or punting it then we are giving points away. That was confirmed with our awful close range miss. We would have been better off going for it and getting a turn over on downs near the goal line than kicking. but I digress.
We took 3/4 of the kids to a small local zoo called the snake farm on Saturday. The Twins has a great time walking around pointing at animals and calling them all dog. The boy did very well in the petting zoo portion. The girl was going where she wanted to go and was not listening so I spent most of my time chasing her all over. I am seriously considering one of those child leash deals.
after my allotted exercise for the week we grabbed some Blizzards from DQ and headed home so I could wait for Kick off. the Kids ended up eating more of my Blizzard than I did but that's my life now. I got to watch a little bit of a few games but spent most of the time flipping between kids shows. I wished I had gotten a chance to watch the Utah ASU game as it would have helped with interpreting the Utes numbers this week. owell.
I did finally click on the link to the advanced boxscore from Bill Connelly.
it is a pretty cool break down of the game. Utah played really poorly on both sides and it looks like before he was injured their starting QB was not doing well, but he seemed to be much better than his understudy. by the way don't look at the UCLA VS Oregon one as it paints a very disturbing picture of our running defense and offense.
Anyways ON TO THE STATS
Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.
DUCK'S S&P OVERALL | UTE'S S&P OVERALL | |||||
S&P+ Rk: | 54 | S&P+ Rk: | 19 | |||
Off. S&P+ Rk: | 28 | Off. S&P+ Rk: | 36 | |||
Def. S&P+ Rk: | 82 | Def. S&P+ Rk: | 26 | |||
Special Teams S&P+ Rk: | 94 | Special Teams S&P+ Rk: | 4 | |||
Résumé S&P+ Rk: | 48 | Résumé S&P+ Rk: | 16 | |||
Strength of Schedule Rk: | 67 | Strength of Schedule Rk: | 40 |
if every one were healthy in Utah, we would have 0 shot at this game. S&P hates us this year. it loved our offense until the washington game then WSU and Arizona made the computers stop. They have never liked our defense or special teams and both have been hovering in the bottom third of college football all season. Utah had one of their worst performances on defense for the year last week, and their offense was not much better. one thing we should be especially cautious of is their special teams are as good as ever. we will not get the same performance out of our special teams as we did against UCLA.
Oregon | Utah | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | |||
EFFICIENCY | Success Rate* | 44.70% | 38 | 37.20% | 24 | |
Marginal Efficiency* | -2.80% | 53 | -8.50% | 18 | ||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP* | 1.15 | 87 | 1.13 | 55 | |
Marginal Explosiveness* | 0.08 | 58 | 0 | 51 | ||
FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 32.4 | 17 | 28.5 | 47 | |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opp. | 5.02 | 30 | 3.84 | 22 | |
Oregon | ||||||
TURNOVERS | Expected TO Margin | 1 | 59 | TO Luck (PPG): | 1.7 | |
Actual TO Margin | 4 | 27 | ||||
Utah | Oregon | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | |||
EFFICIENCY | Success Rate* | 45.00% | 35 | 41.90% | 76 | |
Marginal Efficiency* | -1.80% | 41 | -4.40% | 68 | ||
EXPLOSIVENESS | IsoPPP* | 1.14 | 92 | 1.15 | 61 | |
Marginal Explosiveness* | 0.04 | 79 | 0.06 | 71 | ||
FIELD POSITION | Avg. FP | 30.9 | 40 | 29 | 66 | |
FINISHING DRIVES | Pts. Per Scoring Opp. | 4.54 | 75 | 4.42 | 63 | |
Utah | ||||||
TURNOVERS | Expected TO Margin | 0.4 | 68 | TO Luck (PPG): | -1.3 | |
Actual TO Margin | -2 | 83 |
The Ducks biggest hope for success is Utah's bad turnover margin combined with their inability to score when they get inside their opponents 40 yard line. compounding things for the UTE's is the injury to Huntley. Their back up is a 5'11 195 lbs Freshman. I would anticipate a simplified run first offense for him. He seems to be an inefficient passer, but a decent runner.
THE BASIC's | Duck's | Ute's | Duck's | Ute's | |||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
RUSHING | RUSHING S&P+ | 100.3 | 63 | 110.1 | 29 | PASSING | PASSING S&P+ | 107.3 | 34 | 103.1 | 54 |
Rushing marginal efficiency* | -7.70% | 88 | -12.80% | 16 | Passing marginal efficiency* | 2.30% | 33 | -4.80% | 33 | ||
Rushing marginal explosiveness* | -0.12 | 88 | -0.13 | 46 | Passing marginal explosiveness* | 30.40% | 30 | 0.12 | 43 | ||
Opportunity rate* | 45.20% | 86 | 41.50% | 15 | Passing completion rate* | 58.80% | 76 | 54.50% | 22 | ||
Stuff rate* | 16.20% | 31 | 24.80% | 14 | Sack rate* | 4.00% | 32 | 6.00% | 69 | ||
Duck's | Ute's | Duck's | Ute's | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
STANDARD DOWNS | STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ | 98.8 | 72 | 103.4 | 55 | PASSING DOWNS | PASSING DOWNS S&P+ | 114.1 | 15 | 111 | 28 |
SD marginal efficiency* | -4.90% | 79 | -8.30% | 22 | PD marginal efficiency* | 2.10% | 16 | -8.90% | 20 | ||
SD marginal explosiveness* | 0.02 | 81 | 0.06 | 77 | PD marginal explosiveness* | 0.25 | 29 | -0.15 | 13 | ||
SD line yards per carry* | 2.45 | 78 | 2.09 | 14 | PD line yards per carry* | 2.68 | 66 | 1.91 | 15 | ||
SD sack rate* | 3.90% | 43 | 5.80% | 45 | PD sack rate* | 4.20% | 27 | 6.20% | 90 | ||
Ute's | Duck's | Ute's | Duck's | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
RUSHING | RUSHING S&P+ | 111.6 | 20 | 97.6 | 89 | PASSING | PASSING S&P+ | 104.7 | 48 | 98.4 | 84 |
Rushing marginal efficiency* | -2.90% | 24 | -8.40% | 50 | Passing marginal efficiency* | -0.60% | 66 | -0.50% | 75 | ||
Rushing marginal explosiveness* | -0.03 | 46 | -0.14 | 45 | Passing marginal explosiveness* | 11.50% | 99 | 0.22 | 81 | ||
Opportunity rate* | 54.10% | 15 | 48.00% | 86 | Passing completion rate* | 62.60% | 39 | 58.20% | 54 | ||
Stuff rate* | 17.40% | 45 | 17.70% | 86 | Sack rate* | 8.90% | 113 | 5.70% | 82 | ||
Ute's | Duck's | Ute's | Duck's | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
STANDARD DOWNS | STANDARD DOWNS S&P+ | 108.9 | 21 | 97.1 | 89 | PASSING DOWNS | PASSING DOWNS S&P+ | 104.6 | 44 | 105.8 | 49 |
SD marginal efficiency* | -0.70% | 31 | -3.40% | 79 | PD marginal efficiency* | -4.60% | 81 | -6.50% | 41 | ||
SD marginal explosiveness* | 0 | 93 | 0.05 | 72 | PD marginal explosiveness* | 0.18 | 48 | 0.07 | 61 | ||
SD line yards per carry* | 2.82 | 18 | 2.46 | 66 | PD line yards per carry* | 2.8 | 56 | 2.75 | 79 | ||
SD sack rate* | 8.30% | 116 | 4.10% | 86 | PD sack rate* | 9.60% | 93 | 8.10% | 62 |
Oregon should have success passing the ball. Oregon is unlikely to have much success running. Utah gets good pressure disrupting running plays, but they do not get good pressure on the QB. We should see a healthy dose of the Ute's running game as it is very good. Hopefully Leavitt figures a way around our injuries to linebackers and is able to stop the run. Our best shot is to stack the box and make them beat us with the pass.
Duck's | Ute's | Duck's | Ute's | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
OPEN PLAY | Standard Downs success rate | 48.00% | 63 | 42.40% | 24 | THIRD DOWN | Third-and-long percentage | 43.90% | 27 | 52.90% | 39 |
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd | 61.90% | 120 | 62.60% | 14 | Third-and-short percentage | 13.00% | 29 | 7.40% | 25 | ||
Big-play rate (20+ yards) | 9.60% | 19 | 6.00% | 31 | Third-and-long success rate | 31.20% | 26 | 18.10% | 23 | ||
Avg. third-down distance | 6.4 | 8 | 7.7 | 50 | Third-and-medium success rate | 46.70% | 82 | 46.30% | 58 | ||
Third down success rate | 47.40% | 18 | 32.70% | 25 | Third-and-short success rate | 83.30% | 31 | 60.00% | 16 | ||
Duck's | Ute's | ||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Duck's | Ute's | ||||||
BACKED UP | Backed up success rate | 42.10% | 46 | 25.00% | 33 | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
Backed up turnover rate | 5.30% | 109 | 5.00% | 22 | RED ZONE | 21- to 30-yard line success rate | 38.00% | 93 | 47.10% | 98 | |
Duck's | Ute's | 11- to 20-yard line success rate | 52.00% | 12 | 15.60% | 1 | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Inside 10 success rate | 48.40% | 77 | 41.50% | 32 | |||
BLITZ DOWNS | Blitz down success rate | 35.80% | 20 | 23.20% | 22 | Inside 10 turnover rate | 4.70% | 120 | 4.90% | 16 | |
Blitz down big-play rate | 11.60% | 21 | 5.60% | 32 | First-and-goal success rate | 50.00% | 82 | 42.90% | 38 | ||
Blitz down sack rate | 5.90% | 32 | 7.70% | 81 | Goal line success rate | 78.60% | 30 | 71.40% | 80 | ||
Ute's | Duck's | Ute's | Duck's | ||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||||
OPEN PLAY | Standard Downs success rate | 52.10% | 24 | 46.60% | 63 | THIRD DOWN | Third-and-long percentage | 36.70% | 6 | 43.00% | 118 |
Pct. of first downs coming on 1st or 2nd | 66.20% | 89 | 68.90% | 72 | Third-and-short percentage | 9.40% | 81 | 11.10% | 83 | ||
Big-play rate (20+ yards) | 8.00% | 60 | 6.70% | 44 | Third-and-long success rate | 25.50% | 63 | 19.00% | 28 | ||
Avg. third-down distance | 6.2 | 4 | 6.7 | 112 | Third-and-medium success rate | 46.40% | 85 | 48.40% | 74 | ||
Third down success rate | 43.60% | 39 | 37.50% | 56 | Third-and-short success rate | 83.30% | 31 | 86.70% | 112 | ||
Ute's | Duck's | ||||||||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Ute's | Duck's | ||||||
BACKED UP | Backed up success rate | 14.30% | 125 | 53.30% | 115 | Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | ||
Backed up turnover rate | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 35 | RED ZONE | 21- to 30-yard line success rate | 37.80% | 94 | 48.50% | 107 | |
Ute's | Duck's | 11- to 20-yard line success rate | 35.00% | 92 | 34.00% | 37 | |||||
Offense | Rk | Defense | Rk | Inside 10 success rate | 53.70% | 41 | 41.70% | 33 | |||
BLITZ DOWNS | Blitz down success rate | 32.10% | 44 | 29.00% | 69 | Inside 10 turnover rate | 0.00% | 1 | 0.00% | 59 | |
Blitz down big-play rate | 9.50% | 47 | 5.40% | 28 | First-and-goal success rate | 53.90% | 61 | 46.20% | 46 | ||
Blitz down sack rate | 9.50% | 68 | 11.80% | 41 | Goal line success rate | 58.30% | 89 | 71.40% | 80 |
It looks like if we are able to do what we have been doing on offense we can be successful in this game. it seems the offensive philosophy of both teams is similar. they try to keep on schedule and grind you up to keep 3rd down manageable. if we can force them in to 3rd & long we will have success on defense, but they are very good at avoiding 3rd & long.
DUCK'S | |||||||||||||
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD-INT | Comp Rate | Yards/Comp | Sack Rate | Yards/Att. | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Justin Herbert | 6'6, 233 | JR | 173 | 292 | 2333 | 22-6 | 59.20% | 13.5 | 3.90% | 7.4 | 3.50% | 0.33 | |
Braxton Burmeister | 6'1, 206 | SO | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0-0 | 50.00% | 6.8 | 0.00% | 3.4 | -16.50% | -0.86 | |
Blake Maimone | 6'6, 227 | JR | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0-0 | 100.00% | 28 | 0.00% | 28 | 74.20% | 1.49 | |
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | Yards/Carry | TD | Hlt Yds/Opp | Opp Rate | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | Fum (lost) |
CJ Verdell | RB | 5'9, 201 | FR | 140 | 690 | 4.9 | 5 | 4.67 | 45.00% | -1.90% | -0.01 | 1 (1) | |
Travis Dye | RB | 5'10, 197 | FR | 74 | 348 | 4.7 | 2 | 5.02 | 40.50% | -1.50% | -0.02 | 2 (2) | |
Tony Brooks-James | RB | 5'9, 190 | SR | 52 | 293 | 5.6 | 4 | 4.56 | 57.70% | 7.70% | -0.03 | 0 (0) | |
Justin Herbert | QB | 6'6, 233 | JR | 40 | 231 | 5.8 | 2 | 5.02 | 60.00% | 3.50% | -0.03 | 2 (0) | |
Cyrus Habibi-Likio | RB | 6'1, 210 | FR | 18 | 36 | 2 | 7 | 2.25 | 33.30% | 16.50% | -0.04 | 1 (0) | |
Darrian Felix | RB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | 2.43 | 42.90% | -8.40% | -0.17 | 0 (0) | |
Taj Griffin | RB | 5'11, 178 | SR | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | 1.17 | 100.00% | 17.80% | -0.14 | 0 (0) | |
Braxton Burmeister | QB | 6'1, 206 | SO | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | 2.25 | 50.00% | 2.70% | -0.38 | 0 (0) | |
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Catch Rate | Yds/Catch | Yds/Target | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Dillon Mitchell | WR | 6'2, 189 | JR | 95 | 56 | 833 | 6 | 58.90% | 14.9 | 8.8 | 7.70% | 0.34 | |
Jaylon Redd | WR | 5'8, 178 | SO | 36 | 23 | 275 | 5 | 63.90% | 12 | 7.6 | 3.80% | 0.26 | |
Jacob Breeland | TE | 6'5, 248 | JR | 32 | 19 | 301 | 2 | 59.40% | 15.8 | 9.4 | -3.00% | 0.66 | |
Johnny Johnson III | WR | 6'0, 197 | SO | 29 | 11 | 185 | 4 | 37.90% | 16.8 | 6.4 | -3.70% | 0.53 | |
Brenden Schooler | WR | 6'2, 193 | JR | 26 | 16 | 156 | 1 | 61.50% | 9.8 | 6 | -2.50% | -0.15 | |
CJ Verdell | RB | 5'9, 201 | FR | 21 | 17 | 187 | 0 | 81.00% | 11 | 8.9 | 19.60% | 0.08 | |
Kano Dillon | TE | 6'5, 265 | SR | 16 | 8 | 110 | 2 | 50.00% | 13.8 | 6.9 | -2.10% | 0.64 | |
Ryan Bay | TE | 6'3, 240 | JR | 10 | 7 | 54 | 0 | 70.00% | 7.7 | 5.4 | -6.70% | -0.12 | |
Travis Dye | RB | 5'10, 197 | FR | 8 | 8 | 65 | 0 | 100.00% | 8.1 | 8.1 | 29.50% | -0.45 | |
Tabari Hines | WR | 5'10, 175 | SR | 5 | 3 | 32 | 1 | 60.00% | 10.7 | 6.4 | 4.80% | 0.8 | |
Tony Brooks-James | RB | 5'9, 190 | SR | 4 | 3 | 73 | 0 | 75.00% | 24.3 | 18.3 | 39.50% | 0.62 | |
Taj Griffin | RB | 5'11, 178 | SR | 3 | 2 | 89 | 1 | 66.70% | 44.5 | 29.7 | 24.20% | 2.91 | |
Daewood Davis | WR | 6'2, 178 | FR | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 50.00% | 13 | 6.5 | 27.60% | -0.83 | |
Darrian Felix | RB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | 1 | 0.5 | -30.30% | 0 | |
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | TFLs | Sacks | Run Stuffs | INT (PBU) | FF | Yards/Play | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Troy Dye | ILB | 6'4, 224 | JR | 62 | 3.5 | 0 | 4.5 | 1 (4) | 0 | 4.7 | -2.80% | -0.27 | |
Kaulana Apelu | ILB | 5'10, 208 | SR | 43.5 | 5 | 2 | 6.5 | 0 (4) | 0 | 4.8 | 2.80% | -0.3 | |
Justin Hollins | OLB | 6'5, 242 | SR | 35 | 10 | 5 | 10.5 | 1 (7) | 4 | 1.9 | -5.80% | -0.09 | |
Jalen Jelks | DE | 6'6, 245 | SR | 34 | 6 | 3.5 | 8.5 | 0 (1) | 1 | 2.3 | -12.30% | -0.29 | |
Thomas Graham Jr. | CB | 5'11, 191 | SO | 31 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 (9) | 0 | 10.4 | 32.30% | 0.1 | |
Deommodore Lenoir | CB | 5'11, 196 | SO | 30.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 (5) | 0 | 13 | 45.00% | -0.11 | |
Ugochukwu Amadi | S | 5'10, 201 | SR | 29.5 | 3 | 1.5 | 5 | 3 (6) | 0 | 7.6 | 13.00% | -0.1 | |
Nick Pickett | S | 6'1, 200 | SO | 28.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 (1) | 0 | 11.7 | 38.40% | 0 | |
Gary Baker | DL | 6'3, 310 | JR | 23 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3.2 | -29.50% | -0.2 | |
Jevon Holland | S | 6'1, 192 | FR | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 (4) | 0 | 12.7 | 36.90% | 0.19 | |
Jordon Scott | DL | 6'1, 329 | SO | 18.5 | 3.5 | 1 | 7.5 | 0 (1) | 0 | 0.8 | -36.10% | -0.55 | |
Austin Faoliu | DL | 6'3, 285 | SO | 18.5 | 1 | 1 | 3.5 | 0 (1) | 0 | 2.8 | -11.80% | -0.62 | |
Isaac Slade-Matautia | ILB | 6'1, 220 | FR | 16.5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 (1) | 0 | 6.5 | 3.30% | 0.09 | |
La'Mar Winston Jr. | OLB | 6'2, 233 | JR | 15.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 (2) | 0 | 5.6 | 1.40% | -0.47 | |
Drayton Carlberg | DL | 6'5, 282 | JR | 9.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 0 (0) | 1 | -0.6 | -36.20% | -0.8 | |
Adrian Jackson | ILB | 6'2, 218 | FR | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 2.3 | -38.90% | NULL | |
Sampson Niu | ILB | 6'1, 212 | SO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 5.8 | 21.70% | -0.61 | |
Keith Simms | OLB | 6'3, 227 | SO | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 5.9 | 6.80% | -0.16 | |
Gus Cumberlander | DL | 6'7, 251 | JR | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 (0) | 0 | 0 | -11.30% | -0.65 | |
Mattrell McGraw | S | 5'10, 196 | SR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3 | -43.40% | NULL | |
Popo Aumavae | DL | 6'3, 303 | FR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 0.3 | -10.50% | -0.3 | |
Brady Breeze | S | 6'0, 195 | SO | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1.5 | -40.60% | NULL | |
Verone McKinley III | CB | 5'10, 183 | FR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3 | -38.40% | NULL | |
Pou Peleti-Gore | OLB | 5'10, 211 | SR | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1 | -38.20% | NULL | |
Cyrus Habibi-Likio | RB | 6'1, 210 | FR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 15 | 71.90% | -0.86 |
UTE'S | |||||||||||||
INDIVIDUAL PASSING STATS | Player | Ht, Wt | Year | Comp | Att | Yards | TD-INT | Comp Rate | Yards/Comp | Sack Rate | Yards/Att. | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Tyler Huntley | 6'1, 200 | JR | 150 | 234 | 1788 | 12-6 | 0.641 | 11.9 | 0.086 | 6.5 | 0.033 | 0.11 | |
Jason Shelley | 5'11, 195 | FR | 6 | 14 | 99 | 0-1 | 0.429 | 16.5 | 0.125 | 5.6 | -0.115 | 0.67 | |
Britain Covey | 5'8, 170 | SO | 3 | 3 | 71 | 2-0 | 1 | 23.7 | 0 | 23.7 | 0.449 | 1.47 | |
INDIVIDUAL RUSHING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Rushes | Yards | Yards/Carry | TD | Hlt Yds/Opp | Opp Rate | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. | Fum (lost) |
Zack Moss | RB | 5'10, 215 | JR | 179 | 1092 | 6.1 | 11 | 5.14 | 0.598 | 0.068 | -0.01 | 3 (1) | |
Tyler Huntley | QB | 6'1, 200 | JR | 86 | 440 | 5.1 | 4 | 4.7 | 0.5 | -0.019 | -0.02 | 0 (0) | |
Armand Shyne | RB | 5'11, 210 | JR | 37 | 166 | 4.5 | 2 | 2.81 | 0.541 | -0.069 | -0.06 | 0 (0) | |
TJ Green | RB | 5'11, 195 | FR | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 0 | 3.65 | 0.667 | -0.011 | -0.12 | 0 (0) | |
Britain Covey | WR | 5'8, 170 | SO | 10 | 85 | 8.5 | 0 | 7.66 | 0.7 | -0.065 | -0.2 | 0 (0) | |
Jason Shelley | QB | 5'11, 195 | FR | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 0 | 13.83 | 0.429 | -0.041 | -0.16 | 0 (0) | |
Devin Brumfield | RB | 5'10, 211 | FR | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.25 | -0.445 | 1 (1) | ||
Mitch Wishnowsky | P | 6'2, 220 | SR | 2 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 0.568 | 0.1 | 0 (0) | |
INDIVIDUAL RECEIVING STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Targets | Catches | Yards | TD | Catch Rate | Yds/Catch | Yds/Target | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Britain Covey | WR | 5'8, 170 | SO | 66 | 50 | 555 | 1 | 0.758 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 0.084 | -0.03 | |
Demari Simpkins | WR | 5'10, 176 | JR | 34 | 16 | 221 | 2 | 0.471 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 0.002 | 0.04 | |
Samson Nacua | WR | 6'3, 195 | SO | 31 | 25 | 306 | 3 | 0.806 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 0.16 | 0.04 | |
Jaylen Dixon | WR | 5'9, 165 | FR | 18 | 10 | 250 | 0 | 0.556 | 25 | 13.9 | 0.03 | 1.36 | |
Brant Kuithe | TE | 6'2, 225 | FR | 16 | 12 | 144 | 1 | 0.75 | 12 | 9 | 0.022 | 0.64 | |
Solomon Enis | WR | 6'3, 196 | FR | 15 | 8 | 110 | 1 | 0.533 | 13.8 | 7.3 | 0.01 | 0.18 | |
Siaosi Mariner | WR | 6'2, 193 | JR | 13 | 8 | 100 | 1 | 0.615 | 12.5 | 7.7 | -0.034 | 0.24 | |
Cole Fotheringham | TE | 6'4, 242 | FR | 11 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 0.636 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 0.03 | -0.42 | |
Zack Moss | RB | 5'10, 215 | JR | 10 | 8 | 50 | 1 | 0.8 | 6.3 | 5 | 0.049 | -0.3 | |
Jake Jackson | TE | 6'3, 245 | JR | 8 | 5 | 37 | 1 | 0.625 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 0.094 | -0.18 | |
Bronson Boyd | WR | 6'0, 190 | FR | 4 | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0.5 | 20 | 10 | 0.116 | 0.46 | |
Jameson Field | WR | 5'11, 187 | SR | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0.667 | 8 | 5.3 | -0.064 | -0.32 | |
Connor Haller | TE | 6'2, 230 | SO | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0.667 | 6 | 4 | -0.064 | 0.01 | |
TJ Green | RB | 5'11, 195 | FR | 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.333 | 6 | 2 | -0.099 | -0.53 | |
INDIVIDUAL DEFENSIVE STATS | Player | Pos. | Ht, Wt | Year | Tackles | TFLs | Sacks | Run Stuffs | INT (PBU) | FF | Yards/Play | Marg. Eff. | Marg. Expl. |
Chase Hansen | LB | 6'3, 230 | SR | 60.5 | 15.5 | 4 | 18.5 | 2 (3) | 0 | 2.7 | -0.031 | -0.48 | |
Cody Barton | LB | 6'2, 230 | SR | 53.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 7 | 1 (5) | 0 | 5.1 | -0.022 | -0.3 | |
Corrion Ballard | DB | 6'3, 200 | SR | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 (5) | 1 | 8 | 0.249 | -0.21 | |
Javelin K. Guidry | DB | 5'9, 190 | SO | 29.5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 (8) | 1 | 7.2 | 0.119 | -0.29 | |
Marquise Blair | DB | 6'2, 195 | SR | 28.5 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 (2) | 0 | 6.9 | 0.087 | -0.03 | |
Jaylon Johnson | DB | 6'0, 190 | SO | 27.5 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 3 (1) | 0 | 11.9 | 0.395 | 0.15 | |
Julian Blackmon | DB | 6'1, 190 | JR | 23.5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 (7) | 0 | 10.8 | 0.243 | 0.11 | |
Bradlee Anae | DE | 6'3, 254 | JR | 20.5 | 8.5 | 6 | 9 | 0 (3) | 1 | -0.9 | -0.319 | -0.79 | |
Donavan Thompson | LB | 5'10, 224 | JR | 20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 (0) | 0 | 5.8 | 0.101 | -0.29 | |
John Penisini | DT | 6'2, 315 | JR | 19.5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0 (1) | 0 | 0.8 | -0.306 | -0.83 | |
Mika Tafua | DE | 6'3, 250 | FR | 14.5 | 5.5 | 1 | 5.5 | 0 (1) | 1 | 1.6 | -0.074 | -0.61 | |
Maxs Tupai | DE | 6'1, 242 | SO | 13.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 (1) | 0 | 3.9 | -0.059 | -0.14 | |
Leki Fotu | DT | 6'5, 323 | JR | 12.5 | 2 | 1 | 3.5 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1.4 | -0.239 | -0.15 | |
Terrell Burgess | DB | 6'0, 197 | JR | 12 | 0.5 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 (3) | 0 | 11 | 0.107 | 0.46 | |
Hauati Pututau | DT | 6'3, 300 | SO | 11 | 3.5 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 (2) | 0 | 0.6 | -0.358 | -0.52 | |
Tareke Lewis | DB | 5'11, 180 | JR | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 10 | 0.337 | -0.27 | |
Caleb Repp | DE | 6'5, 230 | JR | 6.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 (0) | 0 | 3.3 | -0.141 | 0.01 | |
Francis Bernard | LB | 6'0, 235 | JR | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 (0) | 0 | 1.5 | -0.265 | -0.35 | |
Pita Tonga | DT | 6'1, 301 | SO | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 (0) | 0 | 3.1 | -0.23 | -0.8 | |
Philip Afia | DB | 6'1, 201 | JR | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 16 | 0.638 | -0.08 | |
Nick Heninger | DE | 6'2, 244 | SO | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 (1) | 0 | -0.3 | -0.296 | NULL | |
Josh Nurse | DB | 6'3, 200 | JR | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 8.7 | 0.616 | -0.83 | |
Team Team | NULL | NULL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | -1 | -0.401 | NULL | ||
Jesse Burkett | C | 6'4, 300 | SR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 0 | -0.301 | NULL | |
Tyrone Young-Smith | DB | 6'4, 200 | JR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 (0) | 0 | 1 | -0.34 | NULL |
Normally I would highlight their tall pass catchers, but who knows if they will be able to get the ball to them to matter.
DUCK PRINTS | DUCK | ||||||||
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg | DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg |
Standard Downs run rate* | 61.40% | 45 | 59.50% | Standard Downs run rate* | 55.40% | 103 | 59.30% | ||
Passing Downs run rate* | 28.30% | 101 | 34.60% | Passing Downs run rate* | 33.90% | 67 | 34.60% | ||
Adj. Pace** | -2.77 | 13 | 0 | Overall Havoc Rate | 16.70% | 50 | 16.20% | ||
% of Solo Tackles | 75.10% | 53 | 72.70% | DL Havoc Rate | 3.40% | 104 | 5.10% | ||
Havoc Rate Allowed | 13.10% | 29 | 15.60% | LB Havoc Rate | 7.10% | 12 | 4.60% | ||
DB Havoc Rate | 6.30% | 79 | 6.50% | ||||||
PD to INC | 45.40% | 3 | 34.20% | ||||||
UTE PRINTS | UTE | ||||||||
OFFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg | DEFENSIVE FOOTPRINT | Category | Team | Rk | Nat'l Avg |
Standard Downs run rate* | 63.90% | 32 | 59.50% | Standard Downs run rate* | 54.60% | 110 | 59.30% | ||
Passing Downs run rate* | 30.30% | 84 | 34.60% | Passing Downs run rate* | 32.10% | 85 | 34.60% | ||
Adj. Pace** | 0.27 | 64 | 0 | Overall Havoc Rate | 19.40% | 16 | 16.20% | ||
% of Solo Tackles | 73.10% | 67 | 72.70% | DL Havoc Rate | 7.00% | 20 | 5.10% | ||
Havoc Rate Allowed | 16.90% | 83 | 15.60% | LB Havoc Rate | 5.70% | 37 | 4.60% | ||
DB Havoc Rate | 6.60% | 67 | 6.50% | ||||||
PD to INC | 37.60% | 35 | 34.20% |
During the game I want every one to chant to them selves "teams do not try to run on UTAH" if we all chant it together maybe Arroyo will hear it and just let Herbert pass it all game to open running backs.
OREGON | UTAH | ||||||
SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Category | Rate | Rk | SPECIAL TEAMS EFFICIENCY RATINGS | Category | Rate | Rk |
FG value (per kick) | -0.7 | 127 | FG value (per kick) | 0.5 | 19 | ||
Punt efficiency | 62.80% | 51 | Punt efficiency | 71.40% | 21 | ||
Kickoff efficiency | 81.00% | 62 | Kickoff efficiency | 92.60% | 17 | ||
Punt return efficiency | 73.30% | 10 | Punt return efficiency | 55.00% | 36 | ||
Kick return efficiency | 66.70% | 11 | Kick return efficiency | 50.00% | 47 |
We are good at returning punts and kickoffs, Utah is better at every thing else on special teams.
SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Utah was going to try and beat us with their run game. Now they have to because they are not going to have another option. We need to keep their defense on the field and wear them out early. We need to get ahead early to not let them take advantage of us on special teams or with their running game. I think we can do it even on the road.
BOLD PREDICTION
Oregon shakes off the road blues and wins 35 - 7.
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