Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats and Such Stanford 2018

EUGENE, OR - NOVEMBER 12: Wide receiver Charles Nelson #6 of the Oregon Ducks returns a kickoff during the second quarter of the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Autzen Stadium on November 12, 2016 in Eugene, Oregon. - Steve Dykes/Getty Images

The baby is home and doing well. The wife, twins and big sister are all well too. didn't have a lot of time to write a 5k word crazy story like I did last year for the Stanford game. so I will keep this week simple and just get to the stats. also Pardon the not as good looking breakdown, all of the stats have not been put on a pretty page yet.

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2018 Advanced Stats Glossary

S&P+ Rk: 32

Oregon S&P + Rankings

S&P+ Rk: 32

Off. S&P+ Rk: 25

Def. S&P+ Rk: 63

Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 84

Stanford S&P + Rankings

S&P Rk: 27

Off. S&P+ Rk: 93

Def. S&P+ Rk: 4

Special Teams S&P+ Rk: 76

S&P actually predicts this as an Oregon win because of how close we are and the home field advantage.

we are a 1.1 point favorite. so super close game.

Five Factors Oregon

When there is an asterisk (*) by a category name, that means garbage time stats have been removed
Five Factors

Offense Rk Defense Rk

EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 49.4% 26 30.3% 9
Marginal Efficiency* 1.9% 28 -12.6% 11
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.25 45 1.20 75
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.18 30 0.12 93
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 37.1 6 27.5 56
FINISHING DRIVES Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 5.65 24 5.55 118

TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin -2.3 113 TO Luck (PPG): 1.4

Actual TO Margin +1 46


When there is an asterisk (*) by a category name, that means garbage time stats have been removed
Five Factors

Offense Rk Defense Rk
EFFICIENCY Success Rate* 33.5% 120 34.6% 31
Marginal Efficiency* -4.8% 83 -10.2% 25
EXPLOSIVENESS IsoPPP* 1.48 10 1.02 30
Marginal Explosiveness* 0.26 17 -0.18 14
FIELD POSITION Avg. FP 34.7 16 25.1 23
FINISHING DRIVE Pts. Per Scoring Opp. 4.17 94 1.92 2

TURNOVERS Expected TO Margin -0.2 76 TO Luck (PPG): 1.4

Actual TO Margin +3 19

this is probably enough for this week. Hopefully I have a little more time next week to make it look a lot nicer. Some interesting things though. We are pretty efficient on offense and not very explosive. Stanford is not very efficient on offense but very explosive. Stanford tends to stall out on drives and in scoring position. then tend to score on the big play.

On defense Stanford is pretty good all around, but especially good at preventing big plays and preventing teams from scoring that are in scoring position. We are really good at stopping short yardage plays, but we get gashed by big plays. we also tend to do poorly at preventing scoring if a team is inside our 40 yard line.

We are each the best opponent each has faced so far this year. Stanford has played much better competition so far this year and has looked ok. This really is our chance to get a win against them on their first road game of the year. it would greatly benefit us to score early. their defense is stout and will keep them in this game. hopefully ours can step up and force some turnovers and give us a few extra possessions.

I am Picking the Ducks to win 24 to 21

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