2019 record: 5-6 (4-4)
Key Numbers + Info (2019 season)
OOC Opponents: Oklahoma State, Hawai’i, Cal Poly
Points per game: 33.09
Points allowed per game: 33.27
Avg. yards per rush: 4.6
Avg. yards per rush allowed: 4.3
Avg. rush yards per game: 158.5
Avg. rush yards per game allowed: 167.5
Rushing TDs: 20 for, 20 against
Avg. pass yards per game: 256.18
Avg. pass yards per game allowed: 285.45
Avg per attempt: 7.44
Avg per attempt allowed: 8.16
Passing TDs: 30 for, 27 against
Collective Pass Completion Rate: 62%
Collective Pass Completion Rate Against: 63%
Leading Rusher: Artavis Pierce (143 carries for 849 yards and six TDs)
Leading Receiver: Isaiah Hodgins (78 receptions for 1,086 yards and 13 TDs)
Leading Tackler: Avery Roberts (79 tackles, 6.0 tackles, 2.0 sacks)
Leader in Sacks: Hamilcar Rashed, Jr (60 tackles, 22.5 tackles for loss, 14.0 sacks)
Credit to Zane Murffit of Cougcenter.com for doing the Sports Source Analytics charts weekly. They are an immense help. Here’s a glossary to help you translate the numbers.
Oregon’s odds of defeating the Beavers and ending up with 10 wins currently stands at 89.9%.
Oregon State Offense vs Oregon Defense
Oregon State’s offense is far above Arizona State based on success rate. The Beavers rank as one of the better run success rate teams in FBS. They are a clearly expected run first team based on the analytics. They are ranked below the FBS average in yards per pass. Oregon State’s run game has been above average according to run success rate, averaging nearly 5.4 yards per carry before sacks.
Oregon kept their ninth ranking in total yards per play allowed in FBS from last week. Oregon State has converted 44.03% of its third downs but Oregon kept its conversions allowed rate to the tune of 34.39%. The run game will be match-up of moderate strength on strength.
Oregon State is on par with Arizona State in generating the explosive play while Oregon kept its 12th position from the week prior. Oregon still remains a top three unit in red zone defense but the Beavers have a significantly better ranked red zone offense than the Sun Devils did.
Where the Ducks can stop OSU is on stuff rate as the Beavers are average in FBS. The havoc rate for the Ducks’ defense remained steady after Arizona State, staying at 8. Oregon State is slightly worse than Arizona State in havoc rate offensively.
The Ducks will need to be wary of one standout receiver that dominates the targets and a pair of all conference potential running backs.
Oregon State is basically on level terms with Arizona State in terms of explosion plays ranking dreadfully low in the pass game as the analytics bear out.
Defensively, Oregon maintained the 18th position in stopping the explosive pass play. The secondary will have their work cut out against junior receiver Isaiah Hodgins.
OSU will provide a huge test for the Ducks defense inside the 40 as they rank second in such opportunities. The Ducks maintained their second place ranking defensively in this category from last week.
As you can see, third down will be the key match-up (44% to 34% allowed) as both teams rank near average of the Power 5. Second down will be a battle between a top 25 offense against a top ten defense. Oregon State has a first down success rate of 46% while Oregon stops teams on 42% of those.
Oregon Offense vs Oregon State Defense
Oregon’s run offense should have a huge day against a porous Beavers’ run defense that ranks near the worst in defending the rush success rate. The run game success rate stayed the same after the Arizona State game. It will be interesting to see how the run game fares against a worse defense than the one Arizona State presented.
Oregon’s offense remained steady at averaging 6.5 yards per play while Oregon State’s defense is averaging 5.9 yards per play given up. The Beavers’ run defense will be a strength on weakness match-up as they have allowed 5.12 yards per carry while the Ducks go for 5.4 per rush.
Where they are equally vulnerable is in the pass game. Oregon is 23rd in the country in yards per attempt at 7.62 while OSU allows nearly 6.8 yards per attempt, ranking 86th s a similar level as the Sun Devils.
In addition to being vulnerable in pass and the run, the Beavers are particularly bad at giving it up on third downs.
The Ducks need to focus their plan of attack on having a balance in both the run and pass as the Beavers are terrible at defending both.
Oregon State will provide a lighter test for the Ducks’ passing attack as they are ranked a woeful 119th in passing explosive rate defense.
Arguably, Oregon State is a far worse explosive run defense than the Sun Devils took the field with in Tempe but the Ducks weren’t that explosive in the run game to begin with.
The Ducks shouldn’t have any issues with scoring inside the Beavers’ 40 yard line as they are a similarly poor defense in that category as the Sun Devils came to work with last weekend.
If you look at this chart, the game clearly will be decided on an second and third downs as Oregon’s offensive chances are dominating over the Beavers’ horrific defensive numbers. Simply put, the Beavers’ will need to stop the Ducks from gaining any type of momentum on first downs.
Pass down success rate: 34%
Standard down success rate: 51%
Pass down success rate: 31%
Standard down success rate: 52%
Scoring Opportunities TD: 66%
Success rate: 47%
Scoring Opportunities TD: 75%
Success rate: 46%
Key players to watch
1. Isaiah Hodgins 6’4 209 WR Junior
- Hodgins is the Dillon Mitchell for the Beavers in that he has dominated the statistics for the team in 2019. He’s a big body receiver that has the potential for elite RAC scores given the H/W/L that NFL teams will covet. He has excellent route running and awareness. None moreso than in the game against Arizona State, where he beat ASU DBs like a drum. Ball skills are elite.
2. Artavis Pierce 5’11 203 RB Senior
- The leading rusher for the Beavers in 2019 in terms of yards. He’s a bigger back that plays the thunder role to Jermar Jefferson’s lightning. Has experience as a return man so lateral agility and vision carries over to running back.
3. Jermar Jefferson 5’10 204 RB Sophomore
- Jefferson hasn’t been as effective as a sophomore as he was as a true freshman last season, ceding the bell-cow role into a more of a timeshare with the aforementioned Pierce. He’s poised for an excellent junior season and a possible early entrance to the 2021 NFL Draft.
Through the air and on the ground, Jermar Jefferson did it all for the Beavers in Week 13. pic.twitter.com/yGLNEh2FHI— PFF College (@PFF_College) November 26, 2019
4. Hamilcar Rashed 6’4 236 RS Junior OLB
- He’s by far the most productive pass rusher that the Beavers have with a whopping 14 sacks on the season. Has two sacks or more in four games in 2019. An insanely productive edge rusher that’s really bendy and has a bevy of tricks to fool opposing tackles. He’s really improved over the past year.
Keys to an Oregon Win
- Offensive line. The Oregon State defense isn’t good by any metric. The Ducks offensive line must remain healthy to exploit the Beavers’ weaknesses. We all saw the poor snaps that Calvin Throckmorton had once Jake Hanson got injured. Good news, Hanson should be back for this game. The offensive line did no favors for a poor Justin Herbert last week but blew open holes against a surprisingly bad ASU run defense. Can they recover some pass blocking form?
- Defense. Can Andy Avalos regain the form that earned him a nomination as a semifinalist for the Broyles Award? The secondary was repeatedly torched by the ASU WRs on gigantic blown assignments. They need to get right quickly or face getting torched by Isaiah Hodgins.
- Mentality. The Ducks were punched in the mouth metaphorically speaking last week by a game ASU squad, can they show the toughness that they have shown this year and bounce back against a rival?
Keys to an Oregon Loss
- Secondary. It wasn’t the greatest showing for the experienced unit last week. They need to recover rapidly as the Beavers offense features several game breaking weapons. The question is, can they do it?
- Justin Herbert. Whew. Where do I begin? He was Bad Herbert last week until the fourth quarter where he tried to lead a frantic comeback. I don’t know what he was seeing but his mechanics were godawful and befit a true freshman QB instead of potential first round pick. Can he revert back to Good Herbert or is this a horrifying trend for Ducks fans to witness?
- Marcus Arroyo. Tried to call a good game last week but regressed due to Bad Herbert and other myriad of offensive issues. Still, he is culpable in the loss. He needs to find the playbook of the past few weeks and find it quickly, otherwise, this game might get troublesome for the Ducks offense.
What are the odds?
(all odds courtesy of vegsainsider.com)
The WestGate Superbook has Oregon as 19 point favorites. The O/U is an even 66 The money line is Oregon -1300 Oregon State +775
William Hill has Oregon as 19.5 point favorites. O/U is set at 66.5. The money line is Oregon -1100 Arizona State +700
DraftKings has Oregon as 19 point favorites. O/U is set at 65.5. Money line is Oregon -1115 Arizona State +650