FanPost

Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such UCLA 2021

Thank God we beat Cal, only thing worse than having to stay up until 2 AM for a football game is to then lose said football game.

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No Soccer updates this week as 1 game got canceled due to storm, and my son had a bye week. Our 7 year old was the only one with a game Saturday morning and needless to say going on 4 hours of sleep made it a mixed bag for me personally. She played really well and was routinely getting the ball to the goal and striking well. The team we were playing against had essentially a goalie for the whole game as they sat one of their 4 players in their goal. Technically against the rules for her age group but the ref never called it. My daughter still had 3 goals, but would have had 3 or 4 more if it was not for that one defender standing in the goal.

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ATQ Fantasy football has been a mixed bag so far this season. I am at 3-3 with a pretty good amount of points scored, but every one I have played seems to have had their best week of the season. This week I get Yun 2.0 so it should be a bye. Thanks for that, I hope PDX doesn't switch out all those players on bye this week. I only have an 89% chance to win this week.

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UCLA Bruins this week... The fighting Chippers.

Their mascot is the Generic Joe "every mascot" Bruin

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Originally the UCLA team mascot was the "Cubs" as they were an off shoot of Cal. In 1928 they switched to the Bruins after a failed stint as the Grizzlies. apparently Montana was threatening litigation.

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If you are reading this post, then you owe a hearty thanks to UCLA, and not Al Gore. The first "Internet" transmission was sent from UCLA to Stanford back in 1969. So I guess you can also blame UCLA for every bad thing that has happened since then on the internet.

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Last UCLA factoid, the Rose Bowl has been their home stadium since 1982.

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and with that,

ON TO THE STATS

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

Oregon on Offense and UCLA on Defense

Team TO Margin PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks +9 33.83 35/81 43.21% 7.82 5.1 59.70%
UCLA Bruins -3 25.14 40/95 42.11% 7.47 3 43.69%

I have not watched much UCLA football this year, but the raw stats seem to suggest their defense is good against the run, but not as good against the pass. Unfortunately we have not shown the ability to take advantage of such things so far this season.

Oregon on Defense and UCLA on Offense

Team PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks 21 39/92 42.39% 6.85 3.7 48.59%
UCLA Bruins 33.57 42/96 43.75% 8.5 5 64.72%

UCLA's Offense is pretty scary by the raw stats. They run a ton and well, then get a lot of chunk yards when they throw.

Advanced stats and rankings / spreads and winning %s

Teams SP+ Overall SP+ Offense SP+ Defense SP+ Specials SP+ Point Spread Sagarin Ranking Sagarin Rating Sagarin Point Spread FEI Rating FEI Offense FEI Defense FPI Raiting FPI Win %
Oregon Ducks 34 38 48 4 UCLA 2.1 19 81.61 UCLA .04 28 28 28 20 53.1%
UCLA Bruins 37 11 79 41 32-29 29 78.65 30 16 48 38 46.9%
SP+ Oregon Win %
45%

very close stats, their offense is a little better, our defense is a little better, and our special teams is better. Frame of reference though, FOSU, has the highest rated offense in SP+, and we all know how that game went. We can win this game if we show up in LA motivated. Most of our team is from SOCAL so a lot of them will have family there and will be wanting to show out. UCLA is not some unbeatable juggernaut.

Individual Stats

Rushing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Attempts Yards Loss Net AVG Touchdowns Long AVG/GM
26 Dye, Travis 6 79 532 5 527 6.7 4 53 87.83
7 Verdell, CJ 5 78 417 11 406 5.2 6 77 81.2
13 Brown, Anthony 6 67 305 63 242 3.6 5 30 40.33
UCLA
24 Charbonnet, Zach 7 110 706 9 697 6.3 7 47 99.57
28 Brown, Brittain 7 73 472 5 467 6.4 4 48 66.71
1 Thompson-Robinson, Dorian 7 82 432 104 328 4 5 35 46.86
Passing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Rating Completion ATT INT % Yards TD Long AVG/GM
13 Brown, Anthony 6 139.34 89 151 1 58.94% 1194 7 66 199
17 Thompson, Ty 2 162.4 6 12 0 50.00% 82 2 54 41
UCLA
1 Thompson-Robinson, Dorian 7 156.08 101 166 2 60.84% 1419 13 75 202.71
4 Garbers, Ethan 7 175.6 2 2 0 100.00% 18 0 13 2.57
Oregon Name Games Catches Yards AVG TD's Long AVG/GM
3 Johnson III, Johnny 6 14 200 14.29 1 32 33.33
26 Dye, Travis 6 15 153 10.2 0 39 25.5
6 Redd, Jaylon 6 8 139 17.38 2 63 23.17
4 Pittman, Mycah 6 5 136 27.2 0 66 22.67
UCLA
85 Dulcich, Greg 7 21 374 17.81 3 75 53.43
2 Philips, Kyle 6 24 369 15.38 6 75 61.5
23 Cota, Chase 7 9 155 17.22 1 45 22.14
0 Brown, Kam 7 9 154 17.11 2 39 22

So What Does It All Mean?

With the advanced stats saying very close UCLA win / basically a toss up. This is a hard game to pull a win from. Now considering the name of the article and my ability to look evidence in the face and still call for a Ducks win, I don't see it changing this game. I think we handle UCLA's Running game and Pass Rush better than most. We eek out a close hard fought win.

35 Ducks 31 UCLA

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