Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such Colorado 2021

Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Camden Lewis didn't want me to have the perfect score prediction last week. but I forgive him because he has done so well this year. I actually didn't get to watch the 4th Quarter of the game because I was enjoying a fancy dinner with my wife, sadly Applebee's wasn't available. But I did get to have a 16 oz bone out Prime Ribeye cooked to perfection.


We have a nice steak house in the town I live, so my wife and I always try to go on our anniversary. This year it was on Wednesday, but our oldest had a soccer game that night so we had to delay it until Saturday. Which in hindsight made parking and navigating down town difficult because they decided to have a Dios De Los Muertos celebration on Saturday so they shut down the square and literally every parking spot near the restaurant was full.


My craving for delicious steak would not be stopped by a bunch of people in face paint and Tejano music!!! We finally found a spot after driving around the block a few times. Due to every one being at the festival there was no wait time at the restaurant so we sat down got our drinks and bread loaf with pat of real butter. as soon as our waiter showed up we ordered. We didn't need to look at the menu because we have been getting the same thing for the past 10 years straight. I got the Ribeye, my wife got the Filet, and we got Potatoes Au gratin as well as Jalapeno Mac n Cheese. The salads were out with in 3 minutes of ordering, which is crazy fast for any place let alone a nicer restaurant. both salads were drown in ranch, which by the way, They have very good ranch. So good in fact that we both used the left over ranch on the plate to dip our buttered bread in. at this point we were out of bread and butter. The waiter refilled and this time brought us like half a stick of butter.


Shortly after that the steaks came out and of course I toss some butter on top of the steak, because fuck my cholesterol and triglycerides. So after the steak was enjoyed I had some sides both are always great. We decided to head over to the Ice House we had our first date at and played some shuffle board and drank a few beers before heading back to put the kids to sleep.


Speaking of large land animals you can eat... if you want to. This weeks game is the Buffaloes of Colorado. Beevo of UT and Ralphie of CU are the coolest live mascots.


While watching people get trampled by Ralphie is always fun, they also have a costumed mascot named Chip. Chip has bad Aim.


Chip had to be carted off, I assume there may have been some reconstructive surgery performed. I bet he wears a cup now.

Speaking of Buffaloes, there is an old movie where a guy is riding around on a Buffalo. I have never watched the actual movie, but there are some funny Youtube videos made with songs that make me laugh.

Colorado does have one of the nicer looking campus / stadiums in the conference.


any ways,


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Oregon on Offense Colorado on Defense

Team TO Margin PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks +9 33.86 42/90 46.67% 7.78 5.1 56.84%
Colorado Buffaloes -1 20.71 33/97 34.02% 6.77 4.7 51.51%

Colorado has a pretty decent defense. one of the best at preventing 3rd downs conversions. They are much better defending the pass than the Run though.

Oregon on Defense and Colorado on Offense

Team PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks 22.43 48/110 43.64% 6.61 3.5 48.59%
Colorado Buffaloes 15.14 27/86 31.40% 6.07 3.3 65.65%

As good as Colorado's defense is, their Offense is awful. like really really bad. They are one of the worst offenses in the country at converting 3rd downs. looking at the raw stats our defense should dominate them.

Advanced Stats and Rankings

Teams SP+ Overall SP+ Offense SP+ Defense SP+ Specials SP+ Point Spread Sagarin Ranking Sagarin Rating Sagarin Point Spread FEI Rating FEI Offense FEI Defense FPI Raiting FPI Win %
Oregon Ducks 31 29 43 6 Oregon 21 16 82.76 Oregon 21.95 21 24 25 19 92.6%
Colorado Buffaloes 97 120 69 52 37-16 102 63.81 88 119 49 88 7.4%
SP+ Oregon Win %

Most of the rankings and predictors agree this is going to be a lopsided win. Colorado's offensive line is one of the worst we will have faced all year long. Of course they just fired their O line coach so magically they will be the best when they face us. But looking at the numbers just about every one in the front 7 should get a sack.

Individual Offensive Stats

Rushing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Attempts Yards Loss Net AVG Touchdowns Long AVG/GM
26 Dye, Travis 7 93 568 6 562 6 8 53 80.29
7 Verdell, CJ 5 78 417 11 406 5.2 6 77 81.2
13 Brown, Anthony 7 73 395 68 327 4.5 6 43 46.71
23 Broussard, Jarek 7 84 359 22 337 4 2 30 48.14
8 Fontenot, Alex 7 59 203 17 186 3.2 2 15 26.57
12 Lewis, Brendon 7 57 248 127 121 2.1 0 33 17.29
Passing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Rating Completion ATT INT % Yards TD Long AVG/GM
13 Brown, Anthony 7 136.98 118 190 3 62.11% 1490 7 66 212.86
17 Thompson, Ty 2 162.4 6 12 0 50.00% 82 2 54 41
12 Lewis, Brendon 7 113.28 69 126 3 54.76% 792 4 65 113.14
9 Carter, Drew 4 69.64 4 9 0 44.44% 27 0 12 6.75
Oregon Name Games Catches Yards AVG TD's Long AVG/GM
3 Johnson III, Johnny 7 18 245 13.61 1 32 35
2 Williams, Devon 6 13 195 15 0 32 32.5
26 Dye, Travis 7 19 189 9.95 0 39 27
4 Pittman, Mycah 7 10 182 18.2 0 66 26
2 Rice, Brenden 7 12 178 14.83 1 62 25.43
38 Russell, Brady 7 11 142 12.91 0 65 20.29
15 Lemonious-Craig, Montana 6 7 89 12.71 1 25 14.83
6 Arias, Daniel 7 8 83 10.38 0 19 11.86

So What Does It All Mean?

Colorado was doing so badly on offense, that they have already fired their OL coach. Colorado should not move the ball on us what so ever. They have a good defense, but it can be ran on especially with our relatively good offensive line clearing the path. I would avoid throwing into this very skilled secondary. If we take what they give us and march down the field on them I could see us putting up another good offensive showing.

Ducks Win

31 to 3 KT gets 4 sacks and 7 TFL's

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