FanPost

Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such Oregon State 2021

Losing SUCKS!!! But the team still has a ton to play for. We need a revenge win this week not only to get the taste of last Saturday out of our collective mouths, but also the division is on the line. Any ways, had a pretty uneventful weekend, but I took Monday and Tuesday off this week to baby sit the kids. My wife doesn't appreciate when I call it baby sitting because they are "my" kids.

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Yesterday I took the kids to a local roadside zoo called the "snake farm". If you have watched the Mike Rowe show dirty jobs he did an episode at the place that was pretty funny where he had to handle dangerous animals.

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They have done a bunch of work the past several years to really update it. They originally had very basic cages for all the venomous snakes, but they just finished upgrading to fancy Terrarium's for all the reptiles. Once you get out side the main building they have a bunch of other exotic animals including Jaguars, Mountain Lions, Lion's, Wolves, and more. Of course the kid's favorite part is the petting zoo. It honestly is one of the better petting zoo's as far as the animal variety. Of course it has your Goats, sheep, pot bellied pigs, but they also have a lama and a calf which is new. The one downside is the Netflix series Tiger King has completely ruined this and all roadside zoo's for me.

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The Snake Farm is far less sketchy than the Tiger King one, but still it is ruined for me. The kids love it so I am morally torn.

Speaking of sketchy roadside attractions, this week we have the Beavers. if you really think about this match up we should really be the best of friends the Ducks and the Beavers. Beavers Dam up the creeks and provide ponds for the Ducks to live in. There is a very symbiotic relationship between the 2 animals. So why can't we all just get along?

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Benny their mascot did not come about until 1945

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I will say his chainsaw work is second to none.

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The Beavers play in Reeser's Stadium. To my Knowledge the only stadium named after potato salad.

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ON TO THE STATS

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

Oregon on Offense Oregon State on Defense.

Team TO Margin PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks +8(19th) 32.7(38th) 72/142 50.70% 7.45 5.4 57.60%
Oregon State Beavers +1(57th) 24.8(56th) 78/160 48.75% 7.04 4.2 49.66%

OSU is not Utah, their defense gives up more points and 3rd downs and yards all around.

Oregon on Defense and Oregon State on Offense

Team PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks 24(49th) 74/162 45.68% 6.72 3.5 50.13%
Oregon State Beavers 33.1(31st) 71/139 51.08% 8.09 5.4 62.53%

Oregon State does have a pretty good Offense, and saying they are run first is a bit of an understatement.

Advanced Stats and predictions

Teams SP+ Overall SP+ Offense SP+ Defense SP+ Specials SP+ Point Spread Sagarin Ranking Sagarin Rating Sagarin Point Spread FEI Rating FEI Offense FEI Defense FPI Raiting FPI Win %
Oregon Ducks 19 19 38 22 Oregon 9.2 16 82.65 Oregon 9.13 24 11 42 19 73.5%
Oregon State Beavers 47 15 83 56 36-27 38 76.52 42 17 81 49 26.5%
SP+ Oregon Win %
70%

All of the predictors essentially agree on this one. none of the advanced metrics like OSU's defense. We should be able to move the ball on them. The advanced line stats LOVE OSU's offensive line, it is rated #1 in several categories, but their defensive line is one of the worst in most categories. We should have a larger advantage on offense than they do vs our defense.

Stats O'War Breakdown

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Similar matchups as above. OSU will be able to move the ball and will likely convert on 3rd and 4th down. We will do the same thing against them but better. We have advantages across the field and we are at home.

Individual Stats

Rushing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Attempts Yards Loss Net AVG Touchdowns Long AVG/GM
26 Dye, Travis 11 158 946 9 937 5.9 12 53 85.18
13 Brown, Anthony 11 118 654 95 559 4.7 8 43 50.82
7 Verdell, CJ 5 78 417 11 406 5.2 6 77 81.2
21 Cardwell, Byron 11 48 358 3 355 7.4 3 34 32.27
Oregon State
4 Baylor, B.J. 11 196 1215 15 1200 6.1 12 68 109.09
5 Fenwick, Deshaun 11 78 460 12 448 5.7 4 24 40.73
21 Lowe, Trey 11 47 314 4 310 6.6 1 38 28.18
Passing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Rating Completion ATT INT % Yards TD Long AVG/GM
13 Brown, Anthony 11 138.2 187 298 4 62.75% 2261 13 66 205.55
17 Thompson, Ty 3 126.05 7 15 1 46.67% 87 2 54 29
Oregon State
10 Nolan, Chance 11 150.6 158 249 8 63.45% 2106 17 67 191.45
6 Noyer, Sam 2 64.52 11 24 2 45.83% 101 0 21 50.5
Receiving Leaders
Oregon Name Games Catches Yards AVG TD's Long AVG/GM
2 Williams, Devon 10 28 430 15.36 3 36 43
3 Johnson III, Johnny 10 25 311 12.44 1 32 31.1
26 Dye, Travis 11 33 308 9.33 2 39 28
14 Hutson, Kris 11 17 276 16.24 0 50 25.09
Pittman, Mycah 10 12 197 16.42 0 66 19.7
Oregon State
8 Bradford, Trevon 11 34 527 15.5 4 67 47.91
0 Harrison, Tre'Shaun 11 24 325 13.54 3 54 29.55
2 Flemings, Champ 11 13 255 19.62 1 45 23.18
1 Lindsey, Tyjon 8 16 232 14.5 3 36 29
88 Musgrave, Luke 11 12 175 14.58 0 31 15.91

So What Does It All Mean?

Rivalry games are always funky and I would never bet the house one way or the other. OSU is terrible 1 and 4 on the road, their only win coming against the Hapless Trojans. All the stats and predictions say we should win this one by 2 scores. a lot of betting action on OSU for this game, so every one thinks we are frauds and we were exposed last week. What can Cristobal do to right the ship and get us back to the Pac 12 CCG so we can try to get another revenge game vs Utah? I Think we win, I think it will be by 2 scores.

Beavers 21 Ducks 35

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