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Always good to beat the Beavers. With Thanksgiving last week throwing me off it feels good to get back in rhythm. Thursday evening I have a fun event that I will have to attend called Wassailfest. The Downtown square shuts down and all the businesses provide Wassail and are open for shopping. People get to vote on which Wassail they liked best and then the chamber of commerce gives out awards. it's a fun time with Christmas music and lights.
Also some businesses have adult Wassail, so fruit in beer bad, but fruit & Rum in Wassail is delicious.
ON TO THE STATS
Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.
First, If any one wants to look back 2 weeks and compare the matchup then and now.
Spoiler alert, not much has changed.
Oregon on Offense Utah on Defense
| Team | TO Margin | PPG | 3rd Down Efficiency | 3rd Down % | Yards Per Pass Attempt | Yards Per Rush | Run Pass % |
| Oregon Ducks | +9(16th) | 33.2(33rd) | 82/155 | 52.90% | 7.64 | 5.4 | 57.75% |
| Utah Utes | 0(66th) | 21.5(29th) | 66/175 | 37.71% | 6.25 | 3.7 | 51.70% |
We need better Turnover luck this week than in our last game. We really need to force a fumble or turn Rising over. I don't foresee too much different in Utah's approach on defense. AB has to win with his reads and his arm.
Oregon on Defense Utah on Offense
| Team | PPG | 3rd Down Efficiency | 3rd Down % | Yards Per Pass Attempt | Yards Per Rush | Run Pass % |
| Oregon Ducks | 24.4(51st) | 78/172 | 45.35% | 6.82 | 3.6 | 49.06% |
| Utah Utes | 35.3(21st) | 71/144 | 49.31% | 7.35 | 5.7 | 56.63% |
Can we come up with an answer for tightends in coverage? by far our biggest weakness in our last game.
Advanced Stats, Metrics as well as predictors
| Teams | SP+ Overall | SP+ Offense | SP+ Defense | SP+ Specials | SP+ Point Spread | Sagarin Ranking | Sagarin Rating | Sagarin Point Spread | FEI Rating | FEI Offense | FEI Defense | FPI Raiting | FPI Win % |
| Oregon Ducks | 19 | 18 | 49 | 22 | Utah 1 | 17 | 83.22 | Utah 1.71 | 22 | 7 | 46 | 20 | 39.0% |
| Utah Utes | 16 | 19 | 17 | 122 | 30-29 | 11 | 84.93 | 10 | 8 | 31 | 12 | 61.0% | |
| SP+ Oregon Win % | |||||||||||||
| 48% |
Utah has slight advantage in most of the advanced stats but basically a toss up.
Stats O'War Break down
This one likes Utah a bit more than it did in our last match up.
Beta Rank Break down from Sharp College Football
This one likes Utah to win 74% of the time and the expected margin to be 7.33 points. which is also a bigger advantage than it had in our last match up.
Individual Stats
| Rushing Leaders | |||||||||||
| Oregon | Name | Games | Attempts | Yards | Loss | Net | AVG | Touchdowns | Long | AVG/GM | |
| 26 | Dye, Travis | 12 | 178 | 1048 | 12 | 1036 | 5.8 | 14 | 53 | 86.33 | |
| 13 | Brown, Anthony | 12 | 132 | 737 | 95 | 642 | 4.9 | 9 | 43 | 53.5 | |
| 7 | Verdell, CJ | 5 | 78 | 417 | 11 | 406 | 5.2 | 6 | 77 | 81.2 | |
| 21 | Cardwell, Byron | 12 | 54 | 401 | 3 | 398 | 7.4 | 3 | 34 | 33.17 | |
| Utah | |||||||||||
| 9 | Thomas, Tavion | 11 | 168 | 995 | 17 | 978 | 5.8 | 18 | 58 | 88.91 | |
| 5 | Pledger, TJ | 12 | 92 | 665 | 14 | 651 | 7.1 | 5 | 96 | 54.25 | |
| 2 | Bernard, Micah | 12 | 78 | 482 | 28 | 454 | 5.8 | 2 | 50 | 37.83 | |
| Passing Leaders | |||||||||||
| Oregon | Name | Games | Rating | Completion | ATT | INT | % | Yards | TD | Long | AVG/GM |
| 13 | Brown, Anthony | 12 | 142.49 | 210 | 326 | 4 | 64.42% | 2536 | 15 | 66 | 211.33 |
| 17 | Thompson, Ty | 3 | 126.05 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 46.67% | 87 | 2 | 54 | 29 |
| Utah | |||||||||||
| 7 | Rising, Cameron | 11 | 145.71 | 172 | 274 | 3 | 62.77% | 2109 | 17 | 49 | 191.73 |
| 12 | Brewer, Charlie | 3 | 117.16 | 48 | 79 | 3 | 60.76% | 484 | 3 | 37 | 161.33 |
| Receiving Leaders | |||||||||||
| Oregon | Name | Games | Catches | Yards | AVG | TD's | Long | AVG/GM | |||
| 2 | Williams, Devon | 11 | 34 | 540 | 15.88 | 4 | 50 | 49.09 | |||
| 14 | Hutson, Kris | 12 | 24 | 358 | 14.92 | 1 | 50 | 29.83 | |||
| 26 | Dye, Travis | 12 | 37 | 347 | 9.38 | 2 | 39 | 28.92 | |||
| 3 | Johnson III, Johnny | 10 | 25 | 311 | 12.44 | 1 | 32 | 31.1 | |||
| Pittman, Mycah | 10 | 12 | 197 | 16.42 | 0 | 66 | 19.7 | ||||
| Utah | |||||||||||
| 80 | Kuithe, Brant | 12 | 43 | 522 | 12.14 | 6 | 49 | 43.5 | |||
| 18 | Covey, Britain | 12 | 44 | 408 | 9.27 | 2 | 33 | 34 | |||
| 86 | Kincaid, Dalton | 12 | 29 | 404 | 13.93 | 6 | 43 | 33.67 | |||
| 17 | Vele, Devaughn | 12 | 19 | 346 | 18.21 | 1 | 45 | 28.83 | |||
| 2 | Bernard, Micah | 12 | 24 | 236 | 9.83 | 1 | 28 | 19.67 |
So What Does It All Mean?
Both coaching staff are good at making adjustments. Oregon executed very bad last time they played. If Oregon can clean up the offense and cover the tightends then this will be a win. If we can't find answers then it will be another loss.
I think Oregon scraps it together and figures it out.
Oregon 31 Utah 28
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