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Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such PAC 12 CCG Utah

By on Dec 1, 2021, 8:43am PST 13

Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Always good to beat the Beavers. With Thanksgiving last week throwing me off it feels good to get back in rhythm. Thursday evening I have a fun event that I will have to attend called Wassailfest. The Downtown square shuts down and all the businesses provide Wassail and are open for shopping. People get to vote on which Wassail they liked best and then the chamber of commerce gives out awards. it's a fun time with Christmas music and lights.

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Also some businesses have adult Wassail, so fruit in beer bad, but fruit & Rum in Wassail is delicious.

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ON TO THE STATS

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

First, If any one wants to look back 2 weeks and compare the matchup then and now.

Oregon @ Utah

Spoiler alert, not much has changed.

Oregon on Offense Utah on Defense

Team TO Margin PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks +9(16th) 33.2(33rd) 82/155 52.90% 7.64 5.4 57.75%
Utah Utes 0(66th) 21.5(29th) 66/175 37.71% 6.25 3.7 51.70%

We need better Turnover luck this week than in our last game. We really need to force a fumble or turn Rising over. I don't foresee too much different in Utah's approach on defense. AB has to win with his reads and his arm.

Oregon on Defense Utah on Offense

Team PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks 24.4(51st) 78/172 45.35% 6.82 3.6 49.06%
Utah Utes 35.3(21st) 71/144 49.31% 7.35 5.7 56.63%

Can we come up with an answer for tightends in coverage? by far our biggest weakness in our last game.

Advanced Stats, Metrics as well as predictors

Teams SP+ Overall SP+ Offense SP+ Defense SP+ Specials SP+ Point Spread Sagarin Ranking Sagarin Rating Sagarin Point Spread FEI Rating FEI Offense FEI Defense FPI Raiting FPI Win %
Oregon Ducks 19 18 49 22 Utah 1 17 83.22 Utah 1.71 22 7 46 20 39.0%
Utah Utes 16 19 17 122 30-29 11 84.93 10 8 31 12 61.0%
SP+ Oregon Win %
48%

Utah has slight advantage in most of the advanced stats but basically a toss up.

Stats O'War Break down

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This one likes Utah a bit more than it did in our last match up.

Beta Rank Break down from Sharp College Football

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This one likes Utah to win 74% of the time and the expected margin to be 7.33 points. which is also a bigger advantage than it had in our last match up.

Individual Stats

Rushing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Attempts Yards Loss Net AVG Touchdowns Long AVG/GM
26 Dye, Travis 12 178 1048 12 1036 5.8 14 53 86.33
13 Brown, Anthony 12 132 737 95 642 4.9 9 43 53.5
7 Verdell, CJ 5 78 417 11 406 5.2 6 77 81.2
21 Cardwell, Byron 12 54 401 3 398 7.4 3 34 33.17
Utah
9 Thomas, Tavion 11 168 995 17 978 5.8 18 58 88.91
5 Pledger, TJ 12 92 665 14 651 7.1 5 96 54.25
2 Bernard, Micah 12 78 482 28 454 5.8 2 50 37.83
Passing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Rating Completion ATT INT % Yards TD Long AVG/GM
13 Brown, Anthony 12 142.49 210 326 4 64.42% 2536 15 66 211.33
17 Thompson, Ty 3 126.05 7 15 1 46.67% 87 2 54 29
Utah
7 Rising, Cameron 11 145.71 172 274 3 62.77% 2109 17 49 191.73
12 Brewer, Charlie 3 117.16 48 79 3 60.76% 484 3 37 161.33
Receiving Leaders
Oregon Name Games Catches Yards AVG TD's Long AVG/GM
2 Williams, Devon 11 34 540 15.88 4 50 49.09
14 Hutson, Kris 12 24 358 14.92 1 50 29.83
26 Dye, Travis 12 37 347 9.38 2 39 28.92
3 Johnson III, Johnny 10 25 311 12.44 1 32 31.1
Pittman, Mycah 10 12 197 16.42 0 66 19.7
Utah
80 Kuithe, Brant 12 43 522 12.14 6 49 43.5
18 Covey, Britain 12 44 408 9.27 2 33 34
86 Kincaid, Dalton 12 29 404 13.93 6 43 33.67
17 Vele, Devaughn 12 19 346 18.21 1 45 28.83
2 Bernard, Micah 12 24 236 9.83 1 28 19.67

So What Does It All Mean?

Both coaching staff are good at making adjustments. Oregon executed very bad last time they played. If Oregon can clean up the offense and cover the tightends then this will be a win. If we can't find answers then it will be another loss.

I think Oregon scraps it together and figures it out.

Oregon 31 Utah 28

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