Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats & Such Stony Brook 2021

Figured I would dust off the old statistics fanpost and try to add some light hearted "content" to ATQ. Today we take a look at our current FCS Foe the Stony Brook Seawolves. I am going off of very little information here, but I am given to understand they have no affiliation with AIRWOLF.


Their Mascot's name is "Wolfie"


He runs through fog quite well for a mascot.

Interesting factoid for those of you who don't already know what a Seawolf is, if you ask a student that question their response should be "i'm a Seawolf" or at least according to my in-depth research from their wiki.


Also sad to say, I have found no direct link between the classic arcade game Sea Wolf and the university.



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With it being so early in the season and an FCS opponent I won't have a ton to work with here.

S&P+ has Oregon as the 16th overall team this year.

S&P+ offense we are 12th and on defense 25th

S&P+ has us winning 50-8

Sagarin's college football ratings which includes FCS teams has Oregon 9th and Stony Brook 195th this week. And according to his site, The point Differential for the game should be 46 points.

On Offense

Team TO Margin PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks +3 33 15/32 46.88% 6.9 5.2 59.59%
Stony Brook Seawolves +2 22.5 7/26 26.92% 7.31 5.1 59.70%

Both teams are run first on offense. Stony Brook has not had a lot of wins on 3rd down. I imagine they won't have a ton of luck running on us, but I think they can move the ball through the air.

Oregon's offense has done a good job protecting the ball through 2 games, and did a good job vs OSU with running the ball. Our YPPA is not great, mostly due to some big misses on the outside. We need a little bit more from Brown going forward because we are going to get a lot of 1v1 coverage on the outside until he can prove that he can take advantage of it.

On Defense

Teams PPG Opp 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks 26 13/30 43.33% 8.06 3.3 38.60%
Stony Brook Seawolves 15 7/24 29.17% 7.78 2.8 53.84%

Stony Brook has a pretty stout defense through 2 games, they limit runs and are good on 3rd downs. Oregon has been very good against the run this year, but man have we given up a ton of passing yards. FSU's QB is currently leading the FBS in passing yards, and tOSU's QB is 4th. This is partly because of how well the run defense has done, and how conservative our coverage has been in the secondary. It won't matter for this game, but we do have a few teams on the schedule that could actually capitalize on that.

So What Does it all mean?

Not a lot this week. I think we run up the middle with great effect and can put in our back ups by the start of the 2nd half. The biggest win will be to get out of this game healthy especially in the defense.

Big win to set up conference play.

Stony Brook 0

Oregon 56

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