FanPost

Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats and Such Arizona 2021


Getting ready for a trip to the Texas coast this weekend. Port Aransas here we come!! 4 kids in a minivan for 2 and a half hours, what could go wrong?

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Thankfully VANLYF comes fully equipped with dual 10 inch tablets and a Blu-ray player.

For those of you unfamiliar with the Texas coast, I have a decision to make. I can make a 40 mile trip around Corpus to use the bridge or we can use the "Ferry". I use the quotes on Ferry, because it is literally the shortest Ferry known to man. it takes longer to get on and off the Ferry than it does to cross the tiny inlet. I think we are going to be there at nighttime so not much of a chance to spot dolphins, so we will probably go with the bridge.

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Big week this week, first pac12 conference game. Specifically using lowercase on pac12 because of how bad the rest of the conference has looked. Being passive aggressive until they get better.

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Honestly I have no idea about Arizona… who is there head coach? Is it still Mike (I got hops) Stoops?

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Wait he has been gone forever. What about Rich (fucking fat ass Tony) Rodriguez?

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No he gone too. Ohh that’s right it’s Kevin Sumlin.

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Ohh crap, he gone too? Damn, remember when people wanted him at Oregon? Dodged a bullet on that.

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Ok google says it’s some guy named Jedd Fisch a quick look for memes and gifs leaves me lacking

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If this is the best they have on him, he may just last…

The Arizona Wildcats have Wilbur and Wilma Wildcat as their current mascots. I think they maybe kissin' cousins or something

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here Wilbur and Wilma take a picture in front of the burning wreckage that is the UA football team

Doing some deep digging on the "Bear Down" phrase that is often mocked. Turns out a pretty sad story behind it.

in 1926 the 22 year old UA student body President and Varsity QB John Byrd "Button" Salmon was fatally injured in an auto accident and on his death bed is quoted saying "Tell them... Tell the Team to Bear Down."

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and with that depressing note.

ON TO THE STATS

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

First. the Raw unadjusted stats for Oregon on Offense and Arizona on Defense.

Team TO Margin PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks +7 38 18/42 42.86% 7.5 5 58.60%
Arizona Wildcats -2 27.67 13/41 31.71% 7.53 4.3 67.67%

Arizona not great at defense, giving up 27.67 per game, We will most likely run more often than pass especially on this team.

2nd. The Raw unadjusted Stats for Oregon on Defense and Arizona on Offense.

Team PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks 19.7 20/46 43.48% 7.61 3.5 45.45%
Arizona Wildcats 16.3 9/45 20.00% 6.2 2.9 39.61%

Arizona is often behind and trying to catch up so they Pass more than they run, and they do both not well. We should control Arizona's offense. I am imagining a few 3 and outs, as they can't pick up a 3rd down to save their lives.

III. The advanced statistical ratings and score spreads.

Teams S&P+ Overall S&P+ Offense S&P+ Defense S&P+ Point Spread Sagarin Rating Sagarin Point Spread FEI Rating FEI Offense FEI Defense FPI Raiting FPI Win %
Oregon Ducks 15 14 28 Oregon 30.4 84.81(9) Oregon 28.75 16 12 16 8 98%
Arizona Wildcats 104 93 110 44-14 59.06(118) 104 93 104 111 2%

Quatro. Individual stats

Rushing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Attempts Yards Loss Net AVG Touchdowns Long AVG/GM
#7 Verdell, CJ 3 50 302 4 298 6 4 77 99.33
#26 Dye, Travis 3 36 195 1 194 5.4 3 24 64.67
#13 Brown, Anthony 3 30 156 34 122 4.1 2 30 40.67
Arizona
#8 Anderson, Drake 3 25 129 14 115 4.6 0 19 38.33
#6 Wiley, Michael 3 23 76 7 69 3 0 12 23
#1 Berryhill III, Stanley 3 4 46 0 46 11.5 0 23 15.33
Passing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Rating Completion ATT INT % Yards TD Long AVG/GM
#13 Brown, Anthony 3 133.91 45 76 0 59.21% 558 3 32 186
#17 Thompson, Ty 1 216.53 6 9 0 66.67% 82 2 54 82
Arizona
#9 Cruz, Gunner 2 126.1 44 64 2 68.75% 406 2 43 203
#15 Plummer, Will 3 106.59 29 54 2 53.70% 309 2 54 103
#4 McCloud, Jordan 1 212.06 6 7 0 85.71% 66 1 16 66
Receiving
Oregon Name Games Catches Yards AVG TD's Long AVG/GM
#3 Johnson III, Johnny 3 7 117 16.71 1 32 39
#4 Pittman, Mycah 3 4 70 17.5 0 30 23.33
#7 Verdell, CJ 3 7 61 8.71 1 20 20.33
#10 Thornton, Dont'e 3 2 60 30 1 54 20
Arizona
#1 Berryhill III, Stanley 3 28 263 9.39 1 43 87.67
#11 Cunningham, Tayvian 3 12 168 14 1 54 56
#5 Casteel, BJ 3 14 128 9.14 1 29 42.67
#6 Wiley, Michael 3 8 64 8 0 25 21.33

Arizona reminds me of the old football saying, "If you have 2 quarterbacks you don't have 1", but in their case it is If you have 3 quarterbacks, you're Fucked.

6. Fun Oregon Factoid

Oregon is 6 and 0 when Verone McKinley III has an INT.

So What Does it all mean?

Similar to Stony Brook honestly this game shouldn't mean much. Arizona is bad and should feel bad. They will break the streak of consecutive loses some day, but Saturday is not that day. Oregon Rolls heavy with back ups and scores big.

Arizona 7

Oregon 52

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