FanPost

Confirmation Bias - Advanced Stats and Such Stanford 2021

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Trip to the coast went pretty well. Kids were good and no one explosively expelled antifreeze after exiting the ocean.

For those of you who have stayed at a vacation rental beach house. I think there is a mandatory store where Beach pun decorations are bought.

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The Aquarium was fun. Of course the kids wanted to sit in the splash zone for the dolphin show. The show was wrapping up and I had luckily managed to avoid the water, Then that asshole Dolphin had to go and be an asshole. Got soaking wet and smelled like saltwater for the rest of the day.

Any ways I think we Play Stanford this week. I know less than nothing about the school other than Phil Knight went there after Oregon.

So the Stanford mascot used to be the super racist "Indian".

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Also their cheerleaders used to dress like Native American girls as well as their live mascot was named Prince Lightfoot.

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In 1972 the school retired Prince Lightfoot and the "Indian" moniker, and in 1975 the Stanford band introduced multiple mascot replacements and the Tree stuck. So from then on every year a student is chosen and they DIY their own tree outfit.

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The Stanford stadium is named "The Farm", because it was founded by Leland and Jane Stanford on the land of their Palo Alto stock farm.

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Former Stanford dropout and Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes has been making headlines.

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apparently she is on trial for defrauding investors and making false statements. If convicted she faces 20 years in prison and $2.75 Million in fines. I guess she should have stayed in school and finished that business ethics class before dropping out. and with that,

ON TO THE STATS

Disclaimer: I am not a writer, editor, statistician, or analyst. If grammatical errors cause you pain, then I bring the pain. All content is for my personal entertainment. If you like it great, if you don’t like it great. Please leave comments and criticism in the comment section.

Oregon on Offense Stanford on Defense

Team TO Margin PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks +12 38.75 24/54 44.44% 7.75 5.2 58.51%
Stanford Cardinals +1 27.5 23/57 40.35% 6.15 5.2 56.14%

Looks like Stanford gets run on a lot and gives up quite a bit of yards on the ground. If they are giving up 5.2 per carry on the ground I doubt we see much passing. Also the Stanford defense has not been great forcing turnovers.

Oregon on Defense and Stanford on Offense

Team PPG 3rd Down Efficiency 3rd Down % Yards Per Pass Attempt Yards Per Rush Run Pass %
Oregon Ducks 19.5 27/62 43.55% 7.35 3.6 49.51%
Stanford Cardinals 28.5 16/45 35.56% 8.24 4.5 46.97%

Stanford is pretty good at passing, PANIC!!!! They do pretty well on the ground too, but I imagine they will be passing a lot vs us.

Advanced Statistical Ratings and Spreads

Teams SP+ Overall SP+ Offense SP+ Defense SP+ Point Spread Sagarin Ranking Sagarin Rating Sagarin Point Spread FEI Rating FEI Offense FEI Defense FPI Raiting FPI Win %
Oregon Ducks 17 12 38 Oregon 14.7 11 84.34 Oregon 6.23 14 17 20 10 74%
Stanford Cardinals 83 68 94 37-23 48 75.11 47 35 79 60 26%
SP+ Oregon Win %
80%

This is weird. SP+ likes our Offense and special teams a lot. Every thing points to a slim to large win for Oregon. Stanford is really poor at run defense, and that is our bread and butter on offense.

Individual Stats

Rushing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Attempts Yards Loss Net AVG Touchdowns Long AVG/GM
7 Verdell, CJ 4 61 348 5 343 5.6 5 77 85.75
26 Dye, Travis 4 41 287 1 286 7 3 53 71.5
13 Brown, Anthony 4 42 204 41 163 3.9 2 30 40.75
Stanford
8 Peat, Nathaniel 4 27 216 20 196 7.3 2 87 49
20 Jones, Austin 3 26 124 6 118 4.5 0 61 39.33
18 McKee, Tanner 4 20 89 32 57 2.9 2 30 14.25
Passing Leaders
Oregon Name Games Rating Completion ATT INT % Yards TD Long AVG/GM
13 Brown, Anthony 4 143.27 55 97 0 56.70% 764 6 63 191
17 Thompson, Ty 2 162.4 6 12 0 50.00% 82 2 54 41
Stanford
18 McKee, Tanner 4 164.6 69 102 0 67.65% 863 8 56 215.75
10 West, Jack 2 86.53 8 12 2 66.67% 76 0 27 38
Receiving
Oregon Name Games Catches Yards AVG TD's Long AVG/GM
3 Johnson III, Johnny 4 10 148 14.8 1 32 37
6 Redd, Jaylon 4 4 103 25.75 1 63 25.75
14 Hutson, Kris 4 5 87 17.4 0 30 21.75
4 Pittman, Mycah 4 4 70 17.5 0 30 17.5
Stanford
6 Higgins, Elijah 4 16 211 13.19 2 56 52.75
81 Tremayne, Brycen 4 17 197 11.59 4 27 49.25
5 Humphreys, John 4 9 152 16.89 0 29 38
20 Jones, Austin 3 7 93 13.29 0 49 31

I verified that Stanford's WR's and TE's, while tall, none are taller than 6'5".

Fun Oregon Factoid

Oregon is currently the only FBS team with 2 wins against current AP top 25 teams. We still need a statement win per ESPN though....

After their underwhelming win against Arizona and another injury exit for Kayvon Thibodeaux, the Ducks are in need of a statement win. -- Kyle Bonagura

So What Does it all mean?

I think this is not as close as the Vegas spread of 8. I really like SP+'s modeling on this game. I think the team rallies on the road and crushes Stanford on the farm. We run all over Stanford and don't give up explosive plays. If the team shows up we can beat any one any where.

Oregon 42 - Stanford 17

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