Addicted To Quack - Duck Dive: Pac-12 Football 2022 Preview CompilationAn Oregon Ducks Blog: Often Imitated, Never Duplicated, Always Fashionablehttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/46661/atqfavicon.png2022-08-25T07:01:00-07:00http://www.addictedtoquack.com/rss/stream/230461172022-08-25T07:01:00-07:002022-08-25T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: Updates and Predictions for Pac-12 Football in 2022
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Pac-12 Media Day" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/DZIzgZhf-DZxLUJb39jrQvpCj2A=/0x0:8640x5760/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71283447/usa_today_18768266.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
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<p>News, notes, and the major obstacles for each Pac-12 team</p> <p id="CTSFKI">This article concludes my Duck Dive series with news and updates since publication of each Pac-12 team’s preview article. I’ll give what I think the main obstacles are that each team needs to overcome, and a prediction of how successful they’ll be.</p>
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<h1 id="EInZ5u">Arizona</h1>
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<p id="e0Srif"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/5/2/23050871/duck-dive-arizona-football-2022-preview">Preview: May 2nd</a></p>
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<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 25 Arizona at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QxuD3Dm5hms5lZkVPwjUtGkeBw4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969654/1235507571.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="7yyOGb">The media continues to treat Wazzu transfer #7 QB de Laura as the de facto starter, although there’s been no official word yet. Camp reports indicate true freshman #11 QB Fifita is the likely backup, passing the trio of last year’s quarterbacks. I think everybody in this room has a substantial knock on them and nothing in de Laura’s film the past two seasons makes me think he’s going to develop the consistency he needs to in head coach Fisch’s offense to be more than a dangerous quarterback who can hit a hot streak, and late camp reports that “it’s finally clicking” for him strike me as saying more than allied media thinks.</p>
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<p id="C6SpKS">Since publishing my preview back in May, WR Ma’jon Wright has entered the portal yet again, but between several very talented additions and returning the best couple receivers from last year, that shouldn’t be a problem. Unbelievably, the Wildcats have taken another transfer running back, DJ Williams previously of Auburn and Florida St, bringing that room to <em>eight</em> scholarship backs. I have no idea why Fisch is collecting so many of them but I have a hard time believing it’s because nobody can carry the ball, so I don’t think this has an immediate impact (though it may have future roster balance implications). #45 LB I. Johnson is back on the defense after moonlighting as a tight end in Spring; I continue to think this room doesn’t have the depth or size to field real blocking TEs to do interesting stuff schematically, but as long as they have 4-star freshman #89 TE Burnett (who’s at just 235 lbs at the Fall roster update) they’ll at least have a gifted big Y-receiver and that’s more than Arizona had last year. Two offensive linemen are no longer listed on the roster, both of whom played in the Spring game and I thought could in contention for starting or backup jobs - Jack Buford and Davis DiVall, who had transferred in from Mizzou and Baylor, respectively. That makes the o-line even more precarious than before and it’s likely to counteract a lot of the progress Fisch has made with the skill players.</p>
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<p id="llwwMz">On defense, LB Jabar Triplett has transferred out and d-linemen Nahe Sulunga and Ugochukwu Nosike are no longer listed on the roster. All three were basically unused last year and I don’t think affect the 2022 defense much. USC transfer #31 DE Echols has been re-classified as a d-lineman (he was an OLB with the Trojans), a signal that new DC Nansen is indeed moving to a 4-down front as I speculated back in May. I think building a front around Echols is a decent idea but the overall talent level here is just so poor that I can’t see it mattering much.</p>
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<p id="kl1JWN">Arizona misses Stanford and Oregon St out of the North, gets ASU for its last game (and therefore has the highest odds of playing a coachless squad of any of ASU’s opponents) and gets comparably talented teams Colorado and Wazzu at home. They should be better than last year’s 1-11 team. But I think a bowl is out of reach, between a ridiculous non-con (at San Diego St, Mississippi St, and North Dakota St) and road trips to some of their toughest opponents like Utah. Fisch has made a lot of progress but the residual talent problems, especially on the lines, are going to take more than one good recruiting class and some promising transfers to overcome.</p>
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<h1 id="vvjKsq">Arizona State</h1>
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<p id="rmhXKk"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/5/9/23062561/duck-dive-arizona-state-football-2022-preview">Preview: May 9th</a></p>
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<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 20 Arizona State at Oregon State" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BHZzKi85B9CoCLR_nCEf2r3BLG0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969664/1236779582.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="zWuTAI">The Sun Devils named Florida transfer #5 QB E. Jones the starter, as expected. They seem to have lost #18 TE Ray from the roster, media reports indicate it’s health related. Those are the only offensive updates since publication. The offense looks like it’s in real depth trouble at every position with so many departures, though they still have the talent to fill out a first-string (if not a two-deep) of an actually dangerous team.</p>
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<p id="CYnVEh">The defense got some good news right after publication of my preview in May when #55 DT Norman-Lott decided to get out of the portal and return to Tempe. They’ve also added an unrated Juco named Brandon McElroy. That’s the end of the good news though, as six more defensive players will be unavailable: DE Michael Matus has an ACL injury and is out for the season, DE Stanley Lambert is no longer on the roster after his DUI arrest, DL Amiri Johnson and DB T Lee are also not on the roster, LB Jaydon Williams was arrested on an outstanding Texas warrant, and LB Rodney Groce got in the portal. I wouldn’t have thought any of these players would be essential given how little playing time each got in 2021, but depth is getting thin at so many positions they may well be.</p>
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<p id="nJip0D">Most in the media think ASU is dead in the water, but I have a hard time predicting this team because the sword of Damocles hasn’t fallen yet – head coach Edwards still has his job, incredibly. All the warning signs were there for UW and USC’s collapses last year despite being the 2<sup>nd</sup> and 3<sup>rd</sup> most talented teams in the conference, but they didn’t <em>actually</em> collapse until their coaches got fired and those teams quit on the interim guy. Since we don’t know when or even if that’ll happen for Edwards, and they still have some solid mid-conference talent, there’s a wide range of outcomes for the Sun Devils. They include muddling through to yet another 7- or 8-win season and year six for Edwards in 2023 … or Oklahoma St could brutalize them in week 2, get Edwards tarmac’d, and they finish struggling to get a single win.</p>
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<h1 id="b3nmQo">California</h1>
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<p id="VmqDw7"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/5/16/23072964/duck-dive-california-football-2022-preview">Preview: May 16th</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: California at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZztmYHT8Bzcn9FIamsnY6j_nLQ4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969667/usa_today_16963917.jpg">
<cite>Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="nv8PcN">The Bears seem pretty set on Purdue transfer #13 QB Plummer, as predicted back in May. The rest of the offensive updates since then look like a wash to me – they got a Juco addition at wideout, #37 WR K. Robinson, who caught an apparently exciting touchdown in Fall camp, and they’ve converted a linebacker to tight end, #34 TE Alfieri, but are losing freshman recruit Nick Morrow who might have been an OL or TE.</p>
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<p id="A4cy8X">On defense, they’ve lost linemen Derek Wilkins and Stanley McKenzie for the season. (LATE EDIT: On August 27th, <a href="https://calbears.com/news/2022/8/27/football-brett-johnson-to-miss-2022-season-due-to-injury.aspx">Cal announced</a> that the Bears’ best d-lineman, Brett Johnson, will miss the 2022 season due to a lower body injury suffered in practice.) Wilkins redshirted last year and Johnson missed 2021 with a different injury, but both were borderline 4-stars and the most talented guys in the unit. McKenzie at 350 lbs was one of only three guys on the roster big enough to play nose tackle for the Bears, the recurring issue for the last three seasons of defensive decline. They may recover from those losses just fine, but it puts a lot of pressure on just a handful of linemen like #91 NT Correia and #99 DE Saunders. At this point I think all these injuries derailing the front and tanking Cal’s season for the third straight year is an unfortunately strong possibility.</p>
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<p id="iQEnVa">Cal fans believe they’ll have a resurgent defense this season, and there’s certainly a scenario that that still happens given a lot of returning production and a very assignment-sound coaching staff, if they don’t get any more bad news and some new players work out. Even so, I have a very hard time believing it would overcome what’s likely to be another painful-to-watch offensive performance from OC Musgrave’s antiquated scheme and inadequate talent at the spots he needs it most – OL and TE. The schedule’s relatively kind – missing Utah and whatever ASU turns out to be, two of three non-con games are cakewalks, and road games against three of the least talented teams in the conference. That should add up to a bowl season, but then they should have gone bowling last year too.</p>
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<h1 id="UB0n5v">Colorado</h1>
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<p id="yAnUTV"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/5/23/23136152/duck-dive-colorado-football-2022-preview">Preview: May 23rd</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Colorado at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/O8olZncH7RP0npJK0qvwegsvy6w=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969668/usa_today_17061538.jpg">
<cite>Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="REhi5I">The QB battle between last year’s starter, #12 QB B. Lewis, and Tennessee transfer who missed last season with injury, #5 QB Shrout, is apparently still ongoing. I think Shrout should have the advantage given new OC Sanford’s scheme so the fact that he hasn’t named a starter yet might mean some lingering injury issues or Lewis having taken a big step … or head coach Dorrell might just be problematically indecisive. From comments at <a href="https://coloradobuffaloeswire.usatoday.com/2022/08/24/karl-dorrell-mike-sanford-discussing-pick-starting-qb/">yesterday’s media availability</a>, it seemed like the major issue keeping Shrout from winning the job is that he’s not elusive enough in the pocket, which makes sense to me because CU’s o-line is likely to be atrocious next year. I think that problem swamps everything else given how run-heavy Sanford’s scheme is, and I’m worried for the health of a lot of players on the Buffs’ offense.</p>
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<p id="3MVamx">The only update on defense is the defensive line lost a couple of backups: Juco d-lineman Jeremiah Doss has graduated and left the team, and Janaz Jordan was dismissed from the team this week for an unspecified rules violation. Doss didn’t play last year and I wasn’t expecting him to get much time in 2022, but Jordan I figured for a rotational lineman in May’s article. Moving to a two-down front should minimize the impact of those losses. I think DC Wilson should be able to get the most of the talent he’s got with an appropriate scheme for the roster and a lot of returning experience. But they’ve lost the best guy at every position and the talent is among the lowest in the league, so it’s hard to think that’ll leverage them to more than maybe a single, turnover-heavy upset win (like the one over UW last year). The non-con is ridiculous, likely three losses there, and they miss Wazzu and Stanford out of the North which I’d have given them decent odds of beating. I think CU will be lucky to get three wins.</p>
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<h1 id="owlD6Q">Oregon</h1>
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<p id="uvUIFQ"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/7/19/23269291/duck-dive-oregon-football-2022-preview">Preview: July19th</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon State at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/p8ebApgdsPQtXGCFd9HoFXjPz1w=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969670/usa_today_17244472.jpg">
<cite>Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="WxzqiI">The Ducks haven’t named a starter among their three bluechip options, though I still expect #10 QB Nix to win simply on having vastly more experience and previously working with new OC Dillingham while they were both at Auburn in 2019.</p>
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<p id="JgBGRZ">My preview article was published just after we learned of tight end Spencer Webb’s untimely death. Since then, likely starter #4 DB B. Williams has changed his jersey number from #15 to Webb’s #4 to honor him, and #12 TE Tilmon has converted from linebacker to bolster depth in the unit. Webb will be missed, naturally, but between two excellent true sophomore returners and #88 TE Herbert’s positive injury recovery news I think depth in the unit will be fine.</p>
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<p id="B9CsJR">On defense, Adrian Jackson has left the team after being converted from a rush end to an ILB – I figured he would be reserved for situational blitz packages only so I don’t think that affects much. In my article I wondered what the official weight #48 DE Ma’ae would be since his last weigh-in was way under what it needed to be but the Ducks were very slow to post an update … they’ve since done so and he’s up to 272 lbs, pretty much exactly what he needs to be for the position and in line with my guess of his weight after watching the Spring game.</p>
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<p id="9mmwLY">The Ducks are the most talented team in the conference, and indeed extended their lead with a slight bump in the 2022 class while second place USC fell off a bit and third place UW fell off considerably. With the awful exception of Webb’s passing, they haven’t gotten any offseason news that cuts against a prediction of a good season. The non-conference is a pretty tough one with defending champion Georgia, perennial FCS power Eastern Washington, and a ranked BYU team that was 5-0 against Pac-12 teams last year. But the conference schedule sets up pretty favorably, missing USC and wild-card ASU, getting all five road games against the five least talented teams in the league, and every tough game in Autzen (including two opportunities for revenge from last year) where the Ducks are 28-2 in the last five seasons. There are two big difficulty spikes in Georgia and Utah, which I’ll predict they’ll split, and because this is a new staff facing the always absurd Pac-12 competition they’ll probably drop a game they shouldn’t somewhere, so I’ll go with the usually safe 10-2 prediction as I did in 2019 and 2021.</p>
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<h1 id="Bl8xeg">Oregon State</h1>
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<p id="oD86F0"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/7/23155506/duck-dive-oregon-state-football-2022-preview">Preview: June 7th</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon State at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PKOPAVf188h7i-IuQ1QAbjAqsuw=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969676/usa_today_17243202.jpg">
<cite>Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="xz9S5L">The Beavs should repeat as a top-25 offense, with coaching stability, a returning starter at QB, and continuing strength at offensive line. They still need to show they’ve sorted their vital running back and tight end questions, but head coach Smith has given no reason to think they won’t and they’ve gotten no bad news in the offseason. The only thing close is that reserve o-lineman Henry Buckles isn’t listed on the updated roster, but I didn’t think the redshirt freshman was going to play anyway.</p>
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<p id="vJwGU4">I haven’t seen any news or changes at all on the defense, which I suppose is good news since when I published my preview in June I was cautiously optimistic that they’ve gotten enough d-linemen back from injury to re-establish their 3-down front. The inability to do so was I think some bad luck that the previous DC ran into and ultimately got him fired, but I don’t think new DC Bray has to do anything different except keep his linemen healthy. I don’t think this will be a great defense since the overall talent level is so poor and unlike the offense there’s very little a defensive coach can do to scheme around that. But if they continue to stay healthy it should be a defense that doesn’t actively cause them to lose games they should win (like last year’s one-score losses to Wazzu and Colorado).</p>
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<p id="3a1bZc">The Beavs face a mixed bag in terms of the schedule. No Power-5 teams in the non-con, but Boise St, Fresno St, and Montana St aren’t pushovers either. They miss Arizona and UCLA from the South, two teams that are in weird spots right now. They get two of their three ranked opponents at home (where they were 6-0 last year), but it’s still hard to imagine beating any of USC, Utah, or Oregon. The Beavs should be a pretty steady team in 2022 that’s better than about eight teams on their schedule, but they face so many wildcard teams that it seems their record is going to be much more about how their opponents shape up than how they do.</p>
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<h1 id="vfXT8m">Stanford</h1>
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<p id="Ah1hDB"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/5/30/23146586/duck-dive-stanford-football-2022-preview">Preview: May 30th</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at Stanford" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Ezh8Qg7owE7Fhn4saEYrbRoZP0M=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969678/usa_today_16894471.jpg">
<cite>Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="mdBi3S">The only news I could find at all about Stanford since publishing my preview at the end of May is that former DB Zahran Manley, whom I thought would return in 2022, is now at NYU where he has some gripes about his residence hall’s <a href="https://nypost.com/2022/08/09/summer-interns-in-nyus-rubin-hall-living-without-ac/">lack of air conditioning</a>.</p>
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<p id="rFOQGG">Other than better injury luck at wide receiver, nothing has happened that’s made me think Stanford is going to reverse the several-year slide they’ve been on. Their coaching staff is unchanged and produces severe underperformance from their talent, the fourth best in the conference. They need substantial help in their defensive line in order to improve from one of the <a href="https://imgur.com/KGFigvw">worst defenses in FBS</a> and they haven’t gotten it.</p>
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<h1 id="C7vorh">UCLA</h1>
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<p id="tDaHgY"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/7/12/23204760/duck-dive-ucla-football-2022-preview">Preview: July 12th</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at UCLA" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yMFQXs1u9nTtXFydFgDVFju5z3E=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23368651/usa_today_17014118.jpg">
<cite>Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="oWhR78">The Bruins finally released an official roster on August 4<sup>th</sup>, three months after everyone else. It appears that starting blocking TE Mike Martinez has left the team. Two offensive linemen that were in question as to still being on the team have indeed left, Thomas Cole and Patrick Selna, the former for <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/ucla-bruins-player-thomas-cole-retires-college-football-suicide-attemp-rcna38666">mental health reasons</a> that he was courageous to discuss. They’ve added a transfer from USC, #78 OL Douglass, who is better as a guard than a tackle but I expect will be required to fill in at tackle given how precarious that position is for UCLA.</p>
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<p id="w29UpG">On defense, 4-star linebacker Damian Sellers, who’s discussed in my preview as a potential starter, isn’t listed on the roster. They’ve added a low 3-star walk-on freshman, Jaxon Harley, to their mess of a defensive backs room.</p>
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<p id="T0WtPO">I continue to think that UCLA’s defensive scheme transition is going to be a disaster (and it’s not like it’s been a great defense the last several years) and that the offensive line uncertainty imperils head coach Kelly’s mad genius offense with its highly demanding and ever-changing blocking schemes. They face a cupcake non-con (including their first FCS opponent ever) but no clear advantage or disadvantage to their conference schedule. I thought this team was pretty average last year, winning eight games against bad teams with a 35-65 record, and losing four to teams that were 38-16. I suspect they’ll be just as chimerical in 2022.</p>
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<h1 id="Qd6mlj">USC</h1>
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<p id="YMAg0E"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/28/23183004/duck-dive-usc-football-2022-preview">Preview: June 28th</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at Southern California" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BBn_dqs-Gd278O_j4YrBHlpryF0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969682/usa_today_15343163.jpg">
<cite>Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="jl3UiO">Not a lot of news for the Trojans since publication in late June. A sophomore o-lineman, Maximus Gibbs, has transferred out, and they’ve taken unrated Juco #71 OL Lovelace. I think USC’s offensive line will be the make-or-break unit for new head coach Riley’s offense (which has far more demanding blocking schemes than the previous staff’s), but if bad injury luck had gotten them down to playing Gibbs or Lovelace then they’d have already been in serious trouble so I don’t think this sort-of swap affects anything.</p>
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<p id="pZbstm">There has been some interesting offseason news on the defense but my article was published late enough in June to have caught all of it. The lack of proven producers on the defensive front, particularly the edge rush and the tumultuous linebackers unit, is the significant question here. There’s been a lot of speculation about guys who may be coming along on the front, but the signal-to-noise ratio with LA reporters and USC’s comically credulous allied media is so low that I don’t put stock in any of it.</p>
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<p id="ZLVj5f">It’s tough to imagine USC not having a substantially better record than last year, since any team with this much talent should at least cruise to a bowl game barring the team quitting on an interim coach. They miss the two most talented teams in the North and massively out-talent all but one team on the schedule. Their first six weeks are a nice steady ramp up in difficulty leading up to the critical road game against Utah in week 7. With the new Pac-12 rule eliminating the divisional win requirement for the championship game, it would take a pretty astonishing set of failures to not make it to Las Vegas.</p>
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<h1 id="sIHnIa">Utah</h1>
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<p id="r7uqQ2"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/14/23166753/duck-dive-utah-football-2022-preview">Preview: June 14th</a></p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Pac-12 Championship-Oregon vs Utah" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Owp5_KwAc8lbCa0P7tLXnARUTp8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969686/usa_today_17285345.jpg">
<cite>Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="veSCvh">The Utes added a couple of minor pieces to their offense since publication – mid 3-star Juco #15 WR Gilmore, and two defensive linemen switched to the offense in #72 OL Harrell and #73 OL Togiai. I don’t think any of that news affects the offense much, and to me there’s really just one question which is how they sort out the pieces from the departures of longtime starters tight end Cole Fotheringham and receiver Britain Covey. I’m something of an outlier in the media for even noting that Utah has some questions to answer <em>at all</em>, but I’m sticking with my prediction that this is actually going to be kind of tricky for the Utes and it’s possible OC Ludwig simply captured lightning in a bottle last year.</p>
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<p id="vt9nuC">On defense, other than the two linemen who switched to offense, there are two absences from the roster: tackle Dallas Vakalahi and linebacker Sire Woods. I wasn’t expecting much playing time for any of those four. All three levels of the defense have significant departures and it remains to be seen how they’ll be replaced; Utah operates at a much lower talent level than its peers at this point and the best answer I’ve heard to those questions is “have faith!” What I think of such a demand is left as an exercise for the reader.</p>
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<p id="cVXFtb">The schedule sets up well for Utah to make it back to Las Vegas. They open at Florida, a team in a bit of crisis, and they get potential revenge games against San Diego St and Oregon St at home. The new Pac-12 rule means that even if they lose their toughest home game – to USC – they can still wind up in the conference championship game, but it would require beating the Ducks for the third straight time, with this one being in Autzen.</p>
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<h1 id="piCYJX">Washington</h1>
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<p id="3e6QZw"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/7/5/23194850/duck-dive-washington-football-2022-preview">Preview: July 5th</a></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SItta7xitL0yRdA-Nf5V9CvoKOc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969691/usa_today_17145043.jpg">
<cite>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="EwPkL0">The Huskies’ offseason was fairly quiet, and my article was published late enough that it captured most of the relevant news. #9 QB Penix was recently named starter, and it’s looking like #5 QB Morris has the backup spot with #7 QB Huard coming in third, which was exactly as I predicted. Returning starter #51 LT Kirkland will have to sit out the opener against Kent St for NCAA reasons; it shouldn’t affect the outcome of that game. Converted lineman #68 DL Ale was hurt in practice and will miss most of Fall camp but his coaches say he’ll be back for the opener; I wasn’t counting on him much due to obvious technique deficiencies in the Spring game (and his poor footwork when he was on offense) and while I’m happy for the news of his recovery I don’t think this improves the likelihood that he meaningfully contributes.</p>
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<p id="rXgHty">The most interesting development is that new head coach DeBoer has given defensive playcalling duties to his safeties coach Morrell, with whom he coached at the NAIA level. Morrell had been the head coach at Montana Tech before accepting the job with the Huskies. At Fresno St, DeBoer had LB coach Inge calling the defense, with whom he coached at Indiana in 2019. I’m not sure what this signifies (other than that DeBoer’s rolodex is pretty thin), but I did think that Inge’s defense had a very difficult time stopping running quarterbacks and there’s a possibility this is a move to try and correct that. I have no film on what type of defense Morrell runs but there’s no indication they plan on changing it from the 4-2-5 this staff was using at Fresno St. A late change like this in duties is highly unusual and merits more investigation from Seattle media; predictably none has been forthcoming.</p>
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<p id="6aNkQz">The Huskies face a very soft schedule, missing USC and Utah from the South and getting three teams that they out-talent but often struggle with at home: Stanford, Oregon St, and Colorado. I suspect, given the massive damage the previous staff did to their secondary talent, that they’ll have a hard time stopping the pass, but it remains to be seen if opposing OCs in the Pac-12 realize that in time to make a 180 degree adjustment in the best way to attack this defense.</p>
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<h1 id="z6CJEx">Washington State</h1>
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<p id="VI6IS0"><a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/23/23179447/duck-dive-washington-state-football-2022-preview">Preview: June 23rd</a></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Washington State at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8MHdq0AvoggaH_ZxY9nyiCc1e4o=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23969692/usa_today_17161992.jpg">
<cite>Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="EHzoyJ">All the news I can find on Wazzu’s offseason has been on the offense. The most significant among the skill players is that Oklahoma St transfer #35 WR Moore will likely miss the season with an injury. He’d been strangely unproductive given his clear talent on film with the last staff, so I don’t think that affects the bottom line. 2-star receiver Mitchell Quinn, who got a couple catches last year, has transferred out, but unrated Juco #82 TE C. Johnson has transferred in. That’s probably a net positive, since they have plenty of wide receivers but I suspect they’ll struggle to get the brand new TE unit operational this year.</p>
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<p id="DeOA4S">However, it also appears #57 OL Tialavea will miss the season. He looked to be the new starting left guard from the Spring game and the backup situation looked precarious to me when I wrote about this team in June. Wazzu is going back to the Air Raid and that doesn’t require as much out of their line as some offenses, but the Cougs are working with such thin numbers and talent that this could be pretty significant.</p>
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<p id="SGNOdf">Wazzu looks like it’s more of a dangerous spoiler than a contender to me, with home games against both Utah and Oregon, as well as other teams looking to rebuild like Cal, ASU, and UW. In the first year with a new staff, the Cougs probably don’t have the talent to sniff the title game and will probably be in a fight to make it back to a bowl game, but a bunch of teams’ seasons could be in danger during trips to the Palouse.</p>
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/8/25/23321179/duck-dive-updates-and-predictions-for-pac-12-football-in-2022hythloday12022-07-19T07:01:00-07:002022-07-19T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: Oregon Football 2022 Preview
<figure>
<img alt="Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VXZMyeSIXS-LguTMaaUr3H2MFeI=/0x0:2500x1667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71151418/usa_today_16733530.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch via Imagn Content Services, LLC</figcaption>
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<p>Going deep with the Ducks’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns</p> <p id="ISWP4J">Special thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/quack12podcast">Adam Chimeo</a> of the Quack 12 Podcast for hosting an interview with me to discuss Oregon’s roster: <a href="https://quack12podcast.com/quack-12/2022/7/18/oregon-roster-review-with-hythloday-2022">LISTEN HERE</a></p>
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<h1 id="2iYmJl">Offense</h1>
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<p id="8iCxAL">Oregon was the 16<sup>th</sup> ranked offense in F+ advanced statistics last year, behind excellent offensive line play, the top (tied with OSU) rushing average in the conference, and 3<sup>rd</sup> down efficiency that ranked 4<sup>th</sup> nationally. The biggest Achilles heel was downfield passing efficiency, where quarterback accuracy and decision-making issues frequently wasted good 2<sup>nd</sup>- and 3<sup>rd</sup>-down situations.</p>
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<p id="OT9nzo">The entire coaching staff has turned over for 2022, though with a few exceptions I’m expecting a relatively similar 11-personnel RPO playbook using spread concepts from new OC Dillingham. All four years he’s been a coordinator it’s been with RPO-heavy systems employing a lot of QB runs, which Oregon fans ought to find familiar from recent years.</p>
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<p id="c4NQk7">The Ducks have a three-man competition among bluechips to replace departing starter Anthony Brown: transferring junior #10 QB Nix from Auburn, and redshirt freshmen #9 QB Butterfield and #13 QB Thompson. Even though Nix has a couple years of eligibility remaining, he’s pledged that this will be his last season in college ball. I expect him to win the job simply on experience – as a three-year starter he’s attempted 628 passes in his career while Butterfield and Thompson have combined for 18.</p>
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<p id="9AeimC">I’ve watched quite a bit of film on Nix over the years for various projects, including a <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/3/14/22975900/duck-tape-film-study-of-oc-kenny-dillingham-part-1-playbook-design">two-part</a> <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/3/23/22975904/duck-tape-film-study-of-oc-kenny-dillingham-part-2-quarterback-coaching">write-up</a> of Oregon’s new OC/QB coach Dillingham who had the same job at Auburn in 2019 during Nix’s true freshman season. The former borderline 5-star strikes me as having all the physical tools and pocket presence to be a very successful quarterback, and I think he steps into a better situation at Oregon than he ever had at Auburn. I’m certain that the wide receiver and offensive line units are considerably better, since they were bizarrely <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2019/8/30/20839977/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-auburn">under-recruited</a> at Auburn, and I’m also certain that the Pac-12 defenses he’ll face are far worse than the ones in the SEC.</p>
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<p id="eC56yI">I suspect the offense that Dillingham will probably use at Oregon is a better fit for his skill set than the ones used by the revolving door of playcallers at Auburn. Former head coach Gus Malzahn took over playcalling for the second time in 2019, then gave it up for the second time in 2020 to Chad Morris who had just been fired by Arkansas. Then in 2021 both Malzahn and Morris were fired by Auburn and replaced by Bryan Harsin and Mike Bobo, who would give UW’s John Donovan a run for his money as the worst OC and most antiquated offense in college football. Quarterback is the one position where I think there’s a reasonable chance for a talented player to dramatically improve his production by transferring to a staff and scheme that’s a better fit, and if I were designing a best-case hypothetical for that proposition it would look almost exactly like this one, though I’m concerned that Nix’s development has probably been hindered by so much whiplash.</p>
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<p id="neMZX0">The likely backups Butterfield and Thompson are almost totally unproven in live games, but they were both highly recruited - a mid 4-star in 2020 and a borderline 5-star in 2021, respectively. In the Spring game they looked liked they’d picked up the offense well and had a lot of great throws, though a few freshman mistakes as well, and the standard caveats about Spring practice regarding contact, schematic complexity, and not much rushing all clearly applied. I think if Nix is unavailable then there’ll probably be a falloff in performance but not a catastrophic one.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Washington State at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1MlXf-gRCRDrKHUIrN6qYh9D-4E=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23013386/usa_today_17162794.jpg">
<cite>Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="HnKAft">Oregon loses both of its mainstays at running back for the last four seasons, Travis Dye and CJ Verdell, as well as backup redshirt freshman Trey Benson. Verdell was injured midseason so the third back bumped up to the second spot, #21 RB Cardwell, whose average led all Pac-12 backs with more than 10 carries at 6.84 YPC on 61 carries (Verdell had 17 more rushes but 11 fewer total yards). Fellow 4-star #5 RB Dollars also returns after missing 2021 with an injury; he got 8.53 YPC in 2019 and 2020 combined, but on just 15 carries.</p>
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<p id="BjPzoe">The Ducks have taken two scholarship transfers: Mar’Keise Irving from Minnesota who arrives in the Fall and #22 RB Whittington from Western Kentucky who played well in the Spring game. Irving played the most games and had the highest average in a three-back rotation with the Gophers last year after their star back Mohamed Ibrahim was injured in the opener. He got 5.31 YPC and 700 yards, which is a pretty robust performance in their jumbo power rushing scheme (the OC, Mike Sanford Jr, was fired at the end of the season and then improbably hired by Colorado, so Irving will get to play against his previous coordinator). Whittington got 6.11 YPC and 617 yards at WKU as the leader of a four-back rotation under new Oregon RB coach Locklyn; I’ve previously <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/3/31/22998937/duck-tape-film-study-of-rb-coach-carlos-locklyn">written up their performance</a> with the Hilltoppers. There’s also 2022 4-star Jordan James who arrives in the Fall and I expect will redshirt, plus three walk-ons in the room who’ve looked capable enough during Spring games and previous schools, for depth.</p>
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<p id="ApLOx8">The departures of Dye and Verdell are painful to be sure, but I don’t think they’ll affect the bottom line. I have a very difficult time handicapping this race since the Ducks are spoiled for choice but I think three of the four candidates are very experienced and have been productive in pretty different schemes, and the fourth has tons of talent and speed. I also think the real secret to Oregon’s rushing success has been in the offensive line whereas the backs have come in for some criticism from me with the previous staff in terms of their vision and ability to run through contact. Given that the o-line returns all its starters and there’s a net talent and YPC upgrade in the ballcarriers this unit should be just fine and I wouldn’t expect a step back.</p>
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<p id="P23ONN">A few hours after Adam and I recorded the podcast, we received word of tight end Spencer Webb’s untimely death in an accident. His loss hurts a lot, I’ve been writing about the ups and downs of his career for five years and I was looking forward to him having what I thought would be a great season.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Valero Alamo Bowl - Oregon v Oklahoma" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/MV0-_mfasDUrgQIPNLcOl0odsUY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23885341/1237464003.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="BPmuhx">Oregon returns its two 4-star true sophomores, #3 TE Ferguson and #8 TE Matavao. I thought they had excellent debuts last year and had effectively become the starters, given the injuries to #88 TE Herbert and #84 TE McCormick and that Webb was used more as a big split-out Y receiver rather than a blocking tight end. I expect to see some refinement to Ferguson and Matavao’s blocking technique since it was a bit raw last year, but it can’t be overstated how unusual it is for not one but two true freshmen do-it-all tight ends to take over the room. Schematically, I think the biggest change in Dillingham’s RPO playbook based on his tape from Florida St compared to Oregon’s last season is that he’s more likely to use TEs on <em>downfield</em> RPOs instead of <em>lateral</em> ones, so in terms of production these guys may be in for a big jump.</p>
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<p id="6Ij8sb">Since former two-way player #2 OLB D.J. Johnson now looks to be a fulltime defensive player and Oregon has taken no prep or portal additions to the tight end room, the only depth is the 4-star Herbert and mid 3-star McCormick. Injuries have derailed both their careers as we haven’t seen the former since his true freshman season in 2019 or the latter since his sophomore season in 2017. I think both have the <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2020/9/28/21455062/quacking-the-roster-84-te-cam-mccormick">potential to be excellent</a> if they’re healthy, but since we didn’t see them in the Spring game I don’t have high hopes. It’s too early to say what the Ducks will do here – perhaps Herbert or McCormick get healthy by Fall, or Johnson yet again fills in for a depleted TE room, or they might look for a late portal addition.</p>
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<p id="4jqV9x">The wide receivers lose five players: Johnny Johnson, Mycah Pittman, Jaylon Redd, Devon Williams, and Lance Wilhoite. The last didn’t play but the first four combined for about 1,250 receiving yards last year. Pittman and Redd were both shorter inside guys, Williams was a very tall outside guy, and Johnson played on the outside but at just 6’0” the former low 3-star would have been the odd man in Oregon’s 2022 outside receiver unit if he still had eligibility.</p>
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<p id="LtGLm6">The Ducks return their second leading receiver behind Williams in #1 WR Hutson, who’s 5’11” and played much more effectively on the inside so it was a real puzzle why the previous staff lined him up outside so often. They also return true sophomore #7 WR McGee, an electric player with 228 all-purpose yards last year who may wind up in a variety of roles including sweeps and gadget plays, and #83 WR Delgado who was unavailable last season but had 183 yards in 2019 and 2020 as a backup and was playing extensively on the inside in the 2022 Spring game, as were Hutson and McGee.</p>
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<p id="aSEzKc">All three of these inside guys are 4-stars (in fact the entire WR corps are 4-stars, which I believe is a first in Oregon history) and have somewhat different skills and experience, so this should be an interesting Fall camp battle. Three top-notch inside WRs in an 11-personnel offense is probably adequate depth, though they’ve also taken two additions in high 3-star true freshman #14 WR Lowe and non-scholarship Juco #85 WR Russell, who are 6’2” and 6’0” respectively and could probably play inside in a pinch.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Washington State v Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/lSdOXH8dfUaQEPaBAK8pkGx87TI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23885347/1353170784.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="oVyIpW">Oregon recruited a trio of very lengthy bluechips at outside receiver in 2021: #15 WR Brevard at 6’4”, #11 WR Franklin at 6’3”, and #2 WR Thornton at 6’5”. Brevard redshirted, but Franklin and Thornton got quite a bit of experience — along with 2018 4-star #6 WR Crocker at 6’3” — towards the end of last season. Those four combined for about 500 yards in 2021.</p>
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<p id="gzOdaz">They’re joined by a couple of transfers: #23 WR Cota at 6’4” from UCLA who played extensively in the Spring game, and Caleb Chapman at 6’5” from Texas A&M who arrives in the Fall. Cota has 883 yards in four seasons in Westwood, and is such a sure-handed receiver that I think he would have gotten a lot more if not for <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/7/12/23204760/duck-dive-ucla-football-2022-preview">that team’s clear preference</a> for throwing inside. Chapman had several heroic plays in College Station (two different Aggie fans I contacted about him recounted in <em>great</em> detail their memories about one particular catch) but has been limited by injuries the last two seasons. Also, 4-star recruit Kyler Kasper has reclassified to 2022 and will join the alliterative additions in the Fall.</p>
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<p id="HQdiD3">Between the size, experience, and raw talent, I think this adds up to a net upgrade in the outside receiver unit in 2022, especially since Hutson and Johnson probably should have been inside guys all along. On length alone the change is considerable - the average height in the room will increase by 1.5 inches. With seven players (possibly eight if counting the 6’2” Lowe) there’s more than adequate depth. The Spring game was divided evenly with the yellow team primarily using Crocker and Thornton and the green team Cota and Franklin, and I’d guess those will be the top four in 2022, but Chapman and Kasper weren’t on campus yet and there’s enough talent here that I wouldn’t be surprised by some change in the Fall.</p>
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<p id="NFu4nj">At offensive line, Oregon has been using the same six-man rotation – and truly a <em>rotation</em>, Alex Mirabal the former OL coach was moving guys in and out and to different positions on a drive-by-drive basis every game – for the past two seasons. Five of those six guys return for a third season: #56 LT Bass, #53 LG Walk, #78 C Forsyth, #74 RG S. Jones, and #71 RT Aumavae-Laulu. The departure is George Moore, who finally ran out of eligibility after playing college football since 2015; Bass had taken over his LT spot by the <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/1/27/22903464/oregon-football-2021-offensive-statistical-review">end of last season.</a></p>
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<p id="dJ9W3v">I expect those five returners will be the starting lineup, and there’s no indication that new OL coach Klemm will make any positional changes or continue Mirabal’s non-traditional rotations. Oregon’s offensive line has been its best asset for almost all of the last two decades and <a href="https://twitter.com/hythloday1/status/1528013680746455040">last year was no exception</a>, so I have no reason to think that’ll change in 2022 with the same starters. I have <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/4/18/23017442/duck-tape-film-study-of-ol-coach-adrian-klemm">some reservations</a> about the inconsistency with which Klemm’s o-linemen performed at UCLA and the accusations of mistreatment made by some former players, but with how established Oregon’s starters are I don’t think those concerns apply in the short term. The rate at which Klemm has sent linemen to the NFL is astonishing – 75% of the dozen linemen I reviewed in his final two seasons with the Bruins are still playing pro ball five years later. Figuring out the highs and lows of Klemm’s career is the biggest mystery to me about Oregon’s new staff.</p>
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<p id="ufvN5N">After the departure of several freshmen who didn’t play last year, there are five other returning scholarship linemen. The two with experience are #58 OL Powers-Johnson who got a lot of play as a true freshman last year as a center and guard due to some injuries, and #70 OL Jaramillo who’s built like a tackle but has played as a backup at all five spots along the line since 2018; both were 4-stars. The inexperienced player I’ve liked the most from watching practice tape is 2020 mid 3-star #55 OL Harper. Mid 4-star #72 OL Walden missed most practices his true freshman season last year as well as the 2022 Spring game for health reasons, but from weight room reports and social media releases this Summer he looks like he’s lifting again. Another 2020 mid 3-star, #75 OL Laloulu, was playing left tackle in the Spring game. Laloulu looks like he’s in a lot better shape than when he came in at nearly 400 lbs a couple years ago but the team hasn’t posted an updated official weight for him yet; I think he remains a project. I also saw four different walk-ons get some play in the Spring game since they split up the teams; predictably they got chewed up by the d-line.</p>
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<p id="d0ZMQB">So in terms of depth it looks like Oregon has a sixth and seventh man both of whom have experience snapping, and since Jones can play tackle (and has extensively, thanks to Mirabal) he’d probably slide over and the backup would take his RG spot instead of having to take on a higher-pressure tackle job. That’s a pretty good depth situation if they took a couple of injuries at the usual rate, and if they have to go to Harper I think they’ll still be fine. If they get really pounded by bad injury luck and have to play four backups at once then they’ll be in real trouble, but that’s true of any team in the game. Still, going forward depth will be an issue beyond 2022, so we might see some early playing time for some of the four true freshmen recruits as planning for the future, most notably 5-star Fall enrollee Josh Conerly.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 27 Oregon State at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/D_G1jwYB2sBKaauRraYu7LTyQAA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23885348/1236897961.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
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<h1 id="munjXO">Defense</h1>
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<p id="0Ffiae">Oregon’s defense ranked 57<sup>th</sup> in F+ in 2021, an underperformance that I found <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/2/3/22915154/oregon-football-2021-defensive-statistical-review">stemmed almost entirely</a> from injuries to four different starting-caliber inside linebackers early in the season, resulting in the rotation of two true freshmen and two walk-ons in that spot. Given that former coordinator Tim DeRuyter’s defense <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/2/9/22273540/duck-tape-film-review-of-dc-tim-deruyter-part-1-structure-personnel-and-blitzes">funnels everything to the ILBs</a>, this was a particularly poor scheme to face such a depletion.</p>
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<p id="qUQTSH">New head coach Lanning and DC Lupoi have both operated the Mint front system that was developed at Alabama between Nick Saban and Kirby Smart, then brought to Georgia with Smart and run by Lanning in last year’s national championship-winning season. It’s a modification of the Tite front popularized by Dave Aranda and Todd Orlando, and I’ll have a more extensive film study article on this defense later in the offseason - the simulated pressures the Bulldogs used are fascinating and documenting them has been a treat for your faithful film reviewer, but they’re not the most salient to a roster breakdown.</p>
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<p id="msiahq">For the purposes of this article, it suffices to say that the personnel requirements are a nose tackle and two big 4is to clog the A- and B-gaps and spill outside runs, with one or two OLBs to kill those runs and provide the edge rush, plus two ILBs and two or three safeties who generally play back against the pass until they’re sure it’s a run. These are somewhat different responsibilities than the systems used by the Ducks’ last three defensive coordinators over the past five seasons, but a fairly similar positional balance so the returning personnel map pretty cleanly onto the new structure.</p>
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<p id="5JPbDC">A running theme that readers of this series will have picked up is that there are quite a lot of Pac-12 defenses that are structured to be 3-down fronts, but because of recruiting, injury, and roster management problems don’t have enough available nose tackles and so just play their 2-down package (that they’d otherwise just play on passing downs like 3<sup>rd</sup> & long) as their base backage on most snaps. Predictably, such defenses get run all over by the opponent’s rushing attack, or if they take extraordinary measures with the backers and safeties to stop the run, get picked apart across the middle with opportunistic passing.</p>
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<p id="fRe5eU">Oregon doesn’t look like it’ll be one of those teams in 2022, as I think their nose tackle unit will run four deep. They return starting senior #50 NT Aumavae who’s been around since 2017; he had surgery immediately after the season so he missed the bowl game and was held out of the Spring game, but by reports should be good to go in the Fall. They’ve also taken two transfers at the position, the first of which is #55 NT Taimani from UW, a 330 lbs former 4-star from the 2018 class who had 41 tackles last year. I’ve been watching Taimani’s tape for years and have consistently written that he lives up to billing, and although this will be a scheme change for him he’s got the size and talent to make the switch. I suspect he’ll be the second guy in the rotation but he might give Aumavae a real fight for reps; he looked up-to-speed in the Spring game.</p>
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<p id="QZEdTL">The second transfer is Jordon Riley, a 2018 mid 3-star who got some backup reps at Nebraska last year under Oregon’s new DL coach Tuioti. He’ll arrive in the Fall and at 295 lbs at last weigh-in, should be game for third-string nose tackle. They’ve also taken a true freshman mid 3-star, Sir Mells, who the prep services say was 310 lbs; I think he could be pressed into service in the Fall if injuries pile up, though he’ll probably redshirt. Oregon loses Jayson Jones to the transfer portal; I think he would have been a valuable nose in this defense so his loss is a painful one, but the Ducks seem to have gotten back up to adequate depth through transfers.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon v UCLA" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KwtMlLCmeq939JGtl4vyxL17BVY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23885351/1348318848.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Harry How/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="Iz59uu">The defensive ends return the entire unit from last year with the exception of Kristian Williams, whose body type didn’t really fit with the new system (he’s transferred to Mizzou’s 4-2-5, a much better match). Oregon has taken two additions who’ll arrive in the Fall: Casey Rogers, another mid 3-star upperclassmen with playing experience at Nebraska, and 2022 borderline 4-star recruit Ben Roberts.</p>
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<p id="QZZshP">The three returners I think are most likely to start are #3 DE Dorlus, #95 DE Ware-Hudson, and #48 DE Ma’ae, with Rogers rounding out the four-man rotation. I’ve been raving about Dorlus since his <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2020/1/5/21049971/duck-tape-film-review-of-the-rose-bowl-vs-wisconsin">2019 true freshman season</a> and think he’s the best 4i in the conference with real interior pass rush skills; I’m sure he’s got a starting job. Former 4-star Ware-Hudson has also been playing since his true freshman season in 2019, though he and Dorlus both had offseason surgery so like Aumavae we haven’t seen them since December. Ma’ae is interesting, he came in as an outside linebacker in 2019 but has significantly bulked up every year, and by the 2022 Spring game looked at playing weight for an end in this system, though the last official weigh-in for him was only at 250 lbs (I’m sure that’s outdated at this point but don’t know exactly what the right number is). Ma’ae got the second most tackles of the ends last season behind Dorlus but with a different assignment so we’ll have to keep an eye on how he develops. Rogers’ tape at Nebraska is very good and he’s got plenty of experience with Tuioti over the last three seasons so I expect he’s a shoo-in.</p>
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<p id="eV2IrR">That leaves five backups at the position who should be able to ease into future playing time. I think the most likely to play are former 4-star #99 DE Ke. Williams who got some playing time as a true freshman last season (and was pressed into playing nose in the Spring game; he didn’t look terrible but that’s not his spot), and borderline 4-star #97 DE Afaese who took a redshirt with an injury and sat out the Spring game but who has great length and talent for the position. The next two are probably #94 DE Poti, a 2019 borderline 4-star but who’s been a career backup since he’s about an inch and a half shorter than ideal, and 2020 mid 3-star #90 DE Shipley who was playing out of position last year (they had him dropping into coverage at 275 lbs which was … suboptimal). I expect Roberts will redshirt when he arrives in Fall but his measurables are great so he might get some garbage time reps for experience.</p>
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<p id="gZIrhY">This is by far the deepest and most experienced 3-down front in the Pac-12, and the only one in which the DEs are all the right body types for the job. Every one of them are 270 – 290 lbs (except Ma’ae, but even he probably is), and all are between 6’3” and 6’5”, with long arms for leverage - exactly what you want out of a 4i. Seven of the nine have live game experience. There are some question marks here given how many guys are coming off of injuries, and there’s relatively little playing time for the third- and fourth-string ends, but the unit certainly has enough depth and an experienced coach to deal with any problems.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/O-TEV-0bLJXGDnVGuv9vRGxFWaA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23885353/usa_today_16732692.jpg">
<cite>Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch via Imagn Content Services, LLC</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="uqG753">The outside linebackers lose Kayvon Thibodeaux to the first round of the draft. They return everyone else: a couple of veterans in #18 OLB Funa and #44 OLB Swinson, the two-way player turned Spring game wrecking ball Johnson mentioned above in the tight end discussion, and four redshirt freshmen backups in #43 OLB Buckner, #17 OLB McNeill, #9 OLB Navarrette, and #12 OLB Tilmon. They took a couple of high 3-stars in the 2022 class, Spring enrollee #5 OLB A. Jones and Fall enrollee Emar’rion Winston.</p>
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<p id="mP1Syj">Funa was a high 4-star in 2019 who had a great true freshman season as a starting STUD backer in then-DC Andy Avalos’ scheme, then he seemed to have some conditioning struggles with the covid restrictions starting in 2020, but in the 2022 Spring game he’d slimmed down considerably (I didn’t recognize him at first) and looks excellent especially in setting the edge against outside runs. Former high 3-star Swinson has also been playing since his true freshman season, starting in 2020, and is stronger as a pass rusher. I think those two will be the starting strongside and weakside OLBs, respectively, though Johnson looked so unstoppable in the Spring game he might jump in for a comparable number of reps.</p>
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<p id="Ov5O1x">I got to see four of the six young backups in the Spring game and all of those looked playable to me, and three of the four returners got some experience last year as true freshmen, so I don’t think depth is going to be an issue here. But each have some kind of question mark around them: Jones and Winston are true freshman whom the staff would probably like to redshirt. McNeill and Tilmon have the right height for the job at 6’4” but are both currently listed as underweight by 20 lbs or so, plus Tilmon sat out the Spring game, so we’ll have to wait for Fall camp to see how offseason training has gone for them. Buckner plays with great technique and ferocity (his father Brentson is a longtime DL coach in the NFL) but is a couple inches undersized. Navarrette, the only 4-star among the backups, was injured last year; he enrolled in 2020 but we haven’t seen him the last two seasons, though he played in the Spring game and looked fine. None of these are insurmountable problems but the law of averages suggests that only half will actually get playing time in 2022.</p>
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<p id="5xFmwr">Losing Thibodeaux is significant since he was completely unblockable for a lot of opponents and was a one-man game-changer on several occasions. It’s also difficult to get a read on how the returners Funa, Swinson, and Johnson will perform since their entire time at Oregon they’ve had Thibodeaux getting all the limelight – reviewing their success rate numbers from my tally sheet they look really good and maybe I would have been raving about them in an alternate universe where Thibodeaux played elsewhere, but that’s a counterfactual and I have a hard time assessing them in a vacuum. My best guess is that Thibodeaux wasn’t quite as essential to the defense as the media has portrayed (he came on late in 2019, faced 2020 covid restrictions, and missed a lot of 2021 playing time) but on the other hand when he was on, he made the rest of the defense better. On balance, I think that while this unit will doubtlessly take a step back without Thibodeaux’s exceptional pass rush, between the considerable talent and experience among the three primary guys who have a good chance of stepping up and a deep room of backups, it shouldn’t be a major one. I think the OLBs will be somewhere between fine and pretty good.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Fresno State v Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/I3hlEStTqi_1ZxTZT4JsUPMQDRc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23885356/1338332508.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="mG3ums">The pain of the 2021 season on the injury-depleted inside backers is the gain for the 2022 season, with a deep and experienced unit that features a lot of talent. The two departures are Dru Mathis who like several others missed last season with an injury, and former walk-on Nate Heaukulani who was pressed into action due to all those injuries; both ran out of eligibility.</p>
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<p id="SnJV9C">Former 5-star #1 ILB Sewell had the second most tackles in the conference last season with 114 (behind only OSU’s Avery Roberts) and leads all returners and transfers into the Pac-12 on that metric. His fellow 2020 5-star #1 ILB Ju. Flowe missed most of last season with an injury, but from his tape in the opener his talent is for real; he was held out of the Spring game but by reports he should be ready by Fall. If he’s playing, Flowe and Sewell together are the most talented pair of inside backers in the conference by a wide margin.</p>
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<p id="RFTqmJ">Borderline 4-star #42 ILB LaDuke, the third of the 2020 recruits, also missed most of 2021 with an injury, but returned late in the season and his tape was excellent. Two 4-star true freshmen were forced into action early by all the injuries: #33 ILB Bassa, a converted safety, and #21 ILB K. Brown, who missed some time with a nagging injury himself. I think the three of those will comprise the second-string; I’d give the edge to LaDuke because he’s a year older and his tape looked the most complete when I got to see it, but Bassa now has a lot of experience under his belt and the new system prioritizes speed at inside backer so being a converted safety isn’t such a liability (and might even be an asset). Brown has the highest talent profile of the three and a more traditional linebacker’s build, but he’s younger than LaDuke and has less playing time than Bassa so relatively speaking he’s the baby here. It should be an interesting Fall camp to see where Flowe is at and how the rest of the rotation shakes out, but those five should make for an excellent core.</p>
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<p id="htz4XA">The four depth players are #29 ILB A. Jackson who’s a 2018 4-star and veteran 3<sup>rd</sup> down pass rush OLB now moving inside I think to be part of some blitz packages and simulated pressures, unrated Juco #35 ILB Roth who’s on his sixth year of college ball and got some playing time last year due to all the injuries, and two 4-star true freshman I saw in the Spring game (and didn’t look bad) #34 ILB Taggart and #26 ILB D. Jackson. Given all the talent and experience ahead of them I doubt these guys are used much outside of situational packages and garbage time but they certainly provide plenty of depth in the unit. All eight scholarship backers are bluechips and every returner got meaningful playing time. This unit looks like a complete turnaround from 2021 when they were the biggest liability to arguably the best unit on the team.</p>
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<p id="CkJJ6l">Oregon loses both of its starting cornerbacks from 2021, DJ James and Mykael Wright, as well as 2021 recruit Jaylin Davies. That’s created the thinnest position group on the team and the biggest area of concern for the Ducks.</p>
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<p id="a4mUbG">Last year, #11 DB Bridges was pressed into action as a cornerback and I thought his tape showed some issues in coverage. From the Spring game and practice reports, it looks like he’ll be moving back to safety for 2022, but with some flexibility to return to corner if necessary. There are three other returning scholarship corners: 2020 5-star #8 CB Manning, 2021 mid 4-star #28 CB Dickerson, and 2021 mid 3-star #22 CB Barkins. Manning has the most experience of them (he was a starter alongside Bridges in the bowl game and I thought he played pretty well), and between that and his talent rating I suspect he’ll get one of the starting spots. We didn’t see much of Dickerson or Barkins in their true freshman seasons, but both played in the Spring game and looked fine.</p>
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<p id="NExAjE">The additions to the room are #0 CB Gonzalez, a 2020 low 4-star who’s started at Colorado the last two seasons and transferred to reunite with new Oregon CB coach Martin, plus mid 4-star 2020 recruits #6 CB Florence, a Spring enrollee, and his high school teammate Jalil Tucker who arrives in the Fall. I <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/3/1/22955143/duck-tape-film-study-of-cb-coach-demetrice-martin">wrote up</a> Martin and Gonzalez back in March, and from film study and the Spring game I think Gonzalez has the other starting job. Florence played well enough in the Spring game that I think he’ll be in competition with Dickerson and Barkins for second-string in 2022, and we’ll have to see how Tucker does in Fall camp.</p>
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<p id="LnqcMn">This is a very talented unit with an average 24/7 composite rating of .93, but it’s small and pretty young. Gonzalez is a known quantity but the rest of the room requires making guesses based on talent and Martin’s track record at development. Those suggest that they should be fine, maybe even pretty good, if they stay healthy. But all young corners get beat at first, and they probably can’t afford more than one injury here, so it could be pretty rocky too.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon v California" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8uXWZ3viVZdmNcnqQ2qBRZdVlvk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23885360/1289650409.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="dC9dVx">The safeties lose longtime starter Verone McKinley and Boise St transfer Jordan Happle, who were the top two tacklers among the safeties last year. Despite that, this room looks quite a bit stronger to me due to the return of key players, getting healthier, and the development of some young talent.</p>
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<p id="pZ75dJ">In addition to getting Bridges back from the corners to probably start at boundary safety, the three other returners with significant experience are #19 DB Hill, #7 DB Stephens, and #15 DB B. Williams … they’ll be on their fourth, fifth, and sixth years of college ball, respectively. I <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2020/10/12/21511824/quacking-the-roster-15-db-bennett-williams">wrote up</a> <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2020/10/19/21502723/quacking-the-roster-sorting-out-safeties">all three</a> a couple years ago and the last two years of tape hasn’t changed my mind much: Hill is a big, hard-hitting nickel who I think will be ideal for box play and mid-field coverage, though he could improve his deep coverage, and from the Spring game I think he’ll continue as the STAR in the new defense. Stephens was a mid 4-star and has never really put it together, I think he’ll be second-string at boundary or field. I think Williams was severely under-utilized by the previous staff and got hurt last year, but is probably Oregon’s best safety considering both talent and experience; I think he’ll start at the fieldside spot but can also play STAR.</p>
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<p id="UKYCEi">Mid 4-star #13 DB Addison enrolled in 2018 as a wide receiver but has been switched to DB, and was playing the high safety in Oregon’s dime packages last year – he doesn’t have much in the way of stats for that reason but I can say from reviewing tape he was actually on the field quite a bit. I think he’ll continue in that role and could play backup field safety in non-dime packages as well.</p>
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<p id="FL5JHs">There are three other returners here, though they could also be considered additions as well since they didn’t really play last year and each took a winding journey to be in this room. 2021 4-star #4 DB David got a few reps as a true freshman, then left the team after the coaching change, but recently <a href="https://twitter.com/RivalsPortal/status/1540375448600735745">decided to return</a>. 2020 high 3-star #24 DB Greenfield didn’t play last year and also reportedly left the team at some point in 2021, but returned for Spring practices and even got an interception in the Spring game. 2021 4-star #25 DB Jo. Flowe (younger brother of the ILB) came in as a backer but has been switched to safety, though he was held out of the Spring game. All three look like they should be able to ease into playing time as redshirt freshman in 2022. The Ducks also added two 4-star Fall enrollees at safety, Khamari Terrell and Trejon Williams.</p>
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<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="4WFElV">
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<h3 id="yn8juN">Accountability Corner</h3>
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<p id="tiRS4u">In <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/7/19/22582689/duck-dive-oregon-football-2021-preview">last year’s preview</a>, I thought that Moorhead’s playbook would expand considerably in the second season and out of covid restrictions, and we certainly saw that. I made heavy reference to my <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2020/10/26/21533170/quacking-the-roster-13-qb-anthony-brown">2020 film study</a> of Anthony Brown’s Boston College tape, which covered his over-the-middle accuracy issues and three-quarters release those were on full display in 2021, but which also anticipated extensive deep downfield passing and that was not. How it is that he went from constantly delivering on-target play-action bombs at BC to being almost totally incapable of hitting a sideline go route at Oregon is the biggest mystery I’ve ever encountered as a film reviewer. I don’t know what to take away from this situation either – I’ve gone back and watched the BC film again and I didn’t miss anything then, his throwing motion (including how he plants on his repaired ACL) is the same, I just don’t get what changed. It’s a different playcaller of course but play design doesn’t cause a QB to wildly overthrow or put the ball in the stands on a basic staple of any offense. With the exception of the injuries, every skill position prediction at RB, TE, and WR were completely accurate, though this wasn’t much of a challenge other than projecting that Williams would be <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2020/9/22/21448307/quacking-the-roster-2-wr-devon-williams">more effective at Oregon than USC</a>. I got the Ducks’ offensive line rotation correct, including the prediction that the drive-by-drive substitutions wouldn’t just be limited to just the 2020 season as a covid precaution, though I whiffed on who the backup center would be as I didn’t predict true freshman Powers-Johnson would play.</p>
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<p id="3QtLNO">On defense, I got the shape of the defensive line situation correct — that they’d go to even fronts if they couldn’t get the right personnel healthy – but I predicted that they wouldn’t need to do so because of improving availability that didn’t really materialize with Smith not playing, Jones only getting limited time then transferring out, and Aumavae eventually needing surgery. I got the DE and OLB rotations exactly correct. I didn’t foresee all the ILB injuries of course, but I did get mostly correct how the backup situation would go all the way down to Heaukulani, though I had McNeil in the ILB instead of OLB room and didn’t predict Bassa coming down to backer. I got the secondary all correct, including the looming depth problem at cornerback and the need for the safeties to get a talent upgrade.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/i5jOVGUO07X_MV2g5lRcWNmP1EU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22872308/usa_today_16732869.jpg">
<cite>Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch via Imagn Content Services, LLC</cite>
</figure>
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/7/19/23269291/duck-dive-oregon-football-2022-previewhythloday12022-07-12T07:01:00-07:002022-07-12T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: UCLA Football 2022 Preview
<figure>
<img alt="UCLA v USC" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FNxSf7r8Q7o6X3FNbIJsMXkW6s0=/0x0:7480x4987/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71098866/1354513277.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Harry How/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Going deep with the Bruins’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns</p> <p id="9uWslz">Special thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelMHanna">Michael Hanna</a> of <a href="https://twitter.com/UCLABTeam">The B Team podcast</a> for joining me on the Quack 12 Podcast to discuss UCLA’s roster. <a href="https://quack12podcast.com/quack-12/2022/7/12/ucla-roster-review-with-michael-hanna-2022">LISTEN HERE</a></p>
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<p id="XoA5LR"><em>Nota bene:</em> It has been 72 days since UCLA concluded Spring practices and the official 2022 roster still doesn’t appear on the <a href="https://uclabruins.com/sports/football/roster">Bruins’ website</a>. In addition, their televised Spring game was just a practice with minimal live scrimmage snaps and provided very little information. Typically those things are two of my best tools in writing this series and so this article is more guesswork than most. I’m grateful for Michael’s help on the podcast sorting this out and for his patience with my exasperation with this needlessly opaque roster. </p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="bvjY7O">
<h1 id="wnyUtM">Offense</h1>
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<p id="TAwzQy">UCLA had an 8-4 season in 2021, head coach Kelly’s fourth year with the Bruins, on the strength of the 13<sup>th</sup> ranked offense in F+ advanced statistics. They benefited from what turned out to be a fairly soft schedule, as none of their wins came against a team with a winning record - those opponents had a combined 33-65 record, while opponents in the four losses were 38-16. In every stat but one — explosive rushing offense — that I recorded when <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/10/22/22739595/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-ucla-2021">charting UCLA’s games</a> and excluding garbage time, the Bruins performed with mediocre and sometimes poor numbers.</p>
<p id="me2Yci">As I’ve written about for years with this team, I think Kelly outsmarts himself – his playbook is absurdly complex and changes weekly, his roster management is wholly without reason resulting in a dire offensive line situation, and the QB he’s joined at the hip with has wild swings in efficiency and accuracy.</p>
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<p id="U2sPcC">Returning starter #1 QB Thompson-Robinson will probably set some records this year since this will be his fifth year as UCLA’s starting quarterback – the former borderline 5-star began as a true freshman in Kelly’s first season in 2018 and has been the signal caller ever since (including the eligibility holiday in 2020), although he’s missed a couple games every year with injury.</p>
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<p id="5sH8qd">On the podcast Michael and I spent some time discussing Thompson-Robinson’s legacy at UCLA. I think his development has been relatively flat with little more than small incremental improvement since his debut, but 36 games of that adds up. His career NCAA passer rating is 140.9, almost exactly the center of the FBS bell curve, but it’s been trending up to around 150 over the last 15 games which is about half a deviation above average. Most importantly, he seems to have almost entirely cleaned up the bizarre fumbling issue he had his first couple years where the ball would randomly pop out of his hand with no contact from the defense, making him at one point the player responsible for the most turnovers in FBS. I think the two most important things he brings are an excellent scrambling ability – which bails Kelly out of his too-clever-by-half playcalling a lot – and an incredible tenacity in single-handedly willing his team to comeback wins or close losses in what otherwise would have been blowouts.</p>
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<p id="QhZ2Dd">The backup order seems pretty clear – former 4-star and previous UW transfer #10 QB Garbers (brother of Cal’s Chase) who came in when Thompson-Robinson was hurt last year, then mid 3-star #11 QB Griffin who filled in during 2020. Potential backups Parker McQuarrie and Kajiya Hollawayne have both transferred out, and Michael says the 2022 low 4-star Justyn Martin is a project who has lots of physical tools but needs to redshirt and learn the position. Garbers’ numbers aren’t great, a pretty poor 116 passer rating on 51 attempts, and he doesn’t run nearly as well which I think is a big problem with Kelly’s offense and the dire pass protection situation. But he was put into a bad spot last year and may be better than his stats indicated, and Michael suggested the intriguing possibility that Garbers is more willing to push the ball downfield to outside receivers than Thompson-Robinson who tends to focus almost entirely on inside guys and the tight end. I like Griffin’s football IQ a lot but he has notable arm strength limitations that will probably keep him at third-string at best.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 20 UCLA at USC" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/sXx2EwgeLx2WAHv1X0TrCD4_BPM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761025/1236944146.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<p id="oUqZeG">The Bruins return one of the best backs in the league, former high 4-star and previous Michigan transfer #24 RB Charbonnet, who had over 1,100 rushing yards at 5.6 YPC last year (plus almost 200 receiving yards). He got about 60% of the carries by the running backs last year.</p>
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<p id="15wEjM">UCLA loses the primary backup, Duke transfer Brittan Brown who had 6.0 YPC, and explosive runner Ethan Fernea who had 8.3 YPC (remarkably, the former walk-on converted from wide receiver). Those two accounted for about a third of this unit’s production last year. The only returners besides Charbonnet with any experience are both walk-ons, #22 RB K. Jones and #24 RB Kowell, who combined for only 90 yards at 2.9 YPC last year. The rest of the room is redshirt freshman high 3-star #31 RB Murrell, 2019 low 3-star #32 RB Grubb, and true freshman mid 3-star Tomarion Harden, none of whom have carried the ball in college yet.</p>
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<p id="kU8O9T">Michael tells us that the battle for the second spot in the unit is between Jones and Murrell, but they have contrasting styles so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them both situationally. Jones has track star speed but is so small he can’t really punch through the gap and there’s a reason he only got a 2-star rating out of high school; Murrell has a workhorse back’s frame but isn’t very fast (his most recent listing was 30 lbs lighter than Charbonnet, but it’s possible he’s bulked up in the year since that was released). It appears that Grubb will be an infrequently used change-of-pace back and special teams contributor, and Harden is a project.</p>
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<p id="4uhluc">Even though I have high expectations for Charbonnet and think Kelly has well earned his reputation as a run-game wizard, I suspect overall this unit will take a step back for the loss of Brown and Fernea, who were very experienced and effective players to relieve the starter in 2021. Each of the options for the second back in 2022 has a significant knock on him and it’s tough to project they’ll find equivalent production without severely overworking Charbonnet and endangering his NFL future. I think it’s further indictment, if any were needed, of this staff’s internal player management that last year 100% of the carries in his run-heavy offense were by transfers or former walk-ons.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon v UCLA" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EA_znXQNlmFowgyYotBAAiNVBGc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761027/1348312470.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Harry How/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="ojGYYv">UCLA loses tight end Greg Dulcich, a former walk-on, to the Broncos. He was basically tied with inside receiver Kyle Philips for the most receiving yards last year, though Dulcich did it on 17 fewer catches. They return the very experienced #88 TE Martinez, who’s a blocker only and built more like an offensive tackle, though according to Michael he refuses to bulk up and switch positions.</p>
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<p id="D7j7rH">The most likely replacement for Dulcich is returner #21 TE Ezeike, a low 4-star from the 2018 class who came in as a wide receiver. He caught 12 passes his true freshman season, but I thought he had a notable problem with drops and it seems the staff didn’t trust his hands at all. He effectively didn’t play the next two years, switched to tight end, and caught three balls last year. Throughout his career he’s been passed up by three different primary TEs and it remains to be seen if Ezeike is ready to step up.</p>
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<p id="Rl6wO8">The other two returning options are mid 3-star 2018 recruit #83 TE Priebe and 2019 walk-on #81 TE Habermehl, neither of whom have played college football yet. Michael says both had some good Spring practice reports, for what that’s worth. There are two low 4-star true freshmen joining the room, Jack Pedersen and Carsen Ryan; only the latter was available for Spring practice but I wasn’t able to really see him during the exhibition.</p>
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<p id="0VTEKG">Ezeike’s hands have been problematic enough – and he’s had so many chances by now – that I think this race is wide open. I could easily see either of the freshmen grabbing significant minutes - they’ll be losing almost everybody else soon so early playing time for young bluechips would be smart roster management, though that’s in short supply in Westwood. I think Dulcich last year was probably much better than any of these guys are right now, so it’s hard for me to imagine this unit doesn’t take a step back. Michael says that Kelly has demonstrated he’ll find <em>somebody</em> to take a starring role at TE and I definitely believe he’ll try – he clearly loves having a go-to and I believe several of his plays are entirely designed to engineer the TE open with the WRs all being decoys. But I don’t take anything on faith and this unit is entirely unproven and uninspiring … just because Kelly got lucky with one walk-on in Dulcich doesn’t mean it’ll happen again.</p>
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<p id="Lnbtmv">Philips has also left the team, and he represented about 80% of the targets to the inside receivers last year. They return converted running back #19 WR K. Allen who got almost all the rest. The three other returners have basically no experience: walk-on #14 WR Norwood, low 4-star junior #17 WR Loya, and mid 3-star redshirt freshman #20 WR Justice. Norwood got the most targets of those three, which amounted to just four catches.</p>
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<p id="XNwxuj">I’m sure that Allen will play a role here, but whether that’s continuing as a backup or taking the starting spot, as well as who the other main guy in the room will be, are anybody’s guess right now. Michael thinks it could be Loya, but I’m skeptical since he only has three catches in two years as a 4-star and his blocking – essential to getting the ball under Kelly – hasn’t been as enthusiastic as Philips’. Other options include a couple of low 4-star additions who measure 6’1” and could play inside or outside: true sophomore transfer Titus Mokiao-Atimalala who caught 12 passes last year at UCF, and Fall enrollee Jadyn Marshall who Michael says is another track star.</p>
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<p id="8NAZR3">Whether it’s Kelly’s engineering or Thompson-Robinson’s preference, the lion’s share of passes over their entire time in Westwood have gone to inside rather than outside receivers. Losing Philips is pretty significant since he’s led all pass-catchers by a significant margin for the last three years. There’s some talent here but it doesn’t jump off the screen and it’s largely unproven, so it’s tough to predict they’ll pick up where Philips left off without missing a beat.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="UCLA v Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zNtW-KgkrDDLFy1BsbvQVsyM9fI=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761031/1346991687.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="PfdlwI">On the other hand, it does appear that the outside receivers are taking a net step forward. While losing Chase Cota to the Ducks is a blow, he was basically in a 50/50 split with the other outside receiver last year, the 4-star Texas A&M transfer #0 WR K. Brown, and the other two losses to this unit got no playing time in 2021. They’ve added Duke’s leading receiver last year, super-senior Jake Bobo, who at 6’5” towers over the rest of the receiving corps.</p>
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<p id="hJSnYN">They’ll also add 6’4” high 3-star Braden Pegan, but Michael is pretty sure he’ll redshirt. The additions at outside might also include the previously mentioned 6’1” guys, Mokiao-Atimalala and Marshall, though Marshall may redshirt regardless. The other three returners have basically no experience: mid 3-stars #25 WR Staples and #12 WR Sykes (though they both have four years of eligibility left), and #7 WR Yankoff who was a mid 4-star QB and recruited to UW then transferred (after some drama) to UCLA and converted to WR but hasn’t played.</p>
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<p id="Vaa1Un">Bobo and Brown alone are more than enough outside receiver capability for this offense’s demonstrated preferences so even though there are a ton of question marks surrounding every other guy in the unit, I don’t think that’s a big deal. I think trading Cota for Bobo will probably be zero-sum but there’s a net talent upgrade with the other additions and another year’s worth of practice time in this offense for the returners. To me the only real question is whether the ball actually goes to the outside any more than it has in the past, to match what I suspect will be an improved unit, all things considered.</p>
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<p id="9VRRVw">The experience and depth gap between the guards and tackles on the offensive line is extreme. For the last few seasons UCLA has operated a five-man rotation at the three interior guard spots, including three different guys snapping the ball. Four of those five return: #62 OG Clemens, #57 OG Gaines, #56 OG Mafi, and #64 OG Marrazzo.</p>
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<p id="KlDajU">The departure is Paul Grattan, who Michael and I both think was the best of those five, but it shouldn’t matter much because there’s so much experience here. Mafi is a converted defensive lineman and the only one of the four returning guards who hasn’t played center, and as of last season he was still too big to be truly effective at 355 lbs, but on the certain types of plays where you just need an immoveable object he certainly fits the bill. Michael tells us there’s a possibility that untested mid 3-stars #68 OG Pulealii and #59 OG Taupaki may be ready to play as depth at the interior as well.</p>
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<p id="xcDmIf">I don’t think any of the talent of these six guys is great – Mafi is a relatively recent defensive convert, Grattan and Marrazzo were walk-ons, and the rest are low-to-mid 3-stars – and I’ve never been in love with their film, but they are executing an absurdly complex and ever-changing playbook and they certainly don’t fall on their faces either, so they get extra points from me for degree of difficulty. According to Michael, Clemens has probably wrapped up the starting center spot, but even if there’s an unforeseen issue the snapping from Gaines and Marrazzo has been just fine. I expect the interior to continue to be a solid and deep group with no real problems.</p>
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<p id="5Qn7cv">The tackle situation, however, is looking like a nightmare. They lost both of the longtime starters, Alec Anderson and Sean Rhyan, plus potential tackle Beau Taylor has transferred out, and apparently #55 OT Cole and #76 OT Selna haven’t been seen at Spring practices. Of course we don’t have the official roster to verify those two but even if they do make it back to the team it’s hard to believe they’ll be ready to take over as starters or reliable backups if they’ve never played and missed Spring practices.</p>
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<p id="aaV9ED">There’s a very thorough and entertaining rundown on the podcast of each of the tackle options and the astonishing roster management failures that led the Bruins to this situation. The bottom line is that UCLA has to bet a couple of mid 3-stars who haven’t played in Kelly’s incredibly demanding offense before are ready to go: Rutgers transfer Raiqwon O’Neal at left tackle when he arrives in the Fall, and redshirt freshman #72 OT DiGiorgio at right (apparently he was on the right throughout high school; UCLA they tried him out at left and he can’t do it). If not, their best and perhaps only option is another converted defensive lineman, #50 OT Manoa who just switched this offseason.</p>
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<p id="ZJBerO">I wouldn’t be comfortable with this situation even if UCLA had the best offensive line coach in the world, and they’re not going to have that either. The previous coach for the last four seasons was Justin Frye and he’s been hired away by Ohio St. Kelly has replaced him, shockingly, with OL coach Drevno. He was one of the very few position coaches Clay Helton ever fired during his disastrous nine-year run at USC, and the Trojans are still dealing with the damage at o-line. I have very little confidence that Drevno will be able to sort out this mess, and given how complex Kelly’s run schemes are, I expect that the rushing offense will suffer as much as the pass protection.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 23 Oregon at UCLA" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/KNMyLvLPj3YaaKvJ_lOxpfTSuvA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761032/1236216819.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jordon Kelly/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<h1 id="lII1oc">Defense</h1>
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<p id="mI37w3">In 2022, the defense will undergo the third scheme change in Kelly’s tenure, though only its second DC. Jerry Azzinaro has been the coordinator since this staff arrived in 2018, but in 2020 Kelly hired DB coach Norwood from Navy and UCLA switched from Azzinaro’s 3-4 hybrid to Navy’s unconventional 4-2-5 with a “Striker” DB and a “Raider” OLB in the box, and it was widely understood that Norwood was the coordinator in all but name. This offseason, after four straight years of the Bruins ranking 69<sup>th</sup> or worse in F+, Kelly cleared out the entire defensive staff except for Norwood, and even he seems to have been stripped of the “shadow DC” role as new titular DC McGovern appears to have installed his traditional 4-3.</p>
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<p id="mvNpst">McGovern has spent almost his entire coaching career since 1985 in the Northeast, bouncing around college programs as a position coach until landing at Boston College in 2000 as the linebackers coach where he stayed for nine seasons before being promoted to DC for another four. The Eagles had an excellent defense during McGovern’s last two years as LB coach only and first two as DC/LB coach, ranking 16<sup>th</sup> or better in F+ from 2007-2010. But the final two years they slid to 51<sup>st</sup> then 68<sup>th</sup>, and the entire BC staff was let go following the 2-10 season in 2012. McGovern has spent eight of the last nine seasons as one kind of linebackers assistant coach or another for three NFL teams, with one year in 2020 as an analyst at Nebraska. His most recent job was ILB coach with the Bears in 2021, but McGovern wasn’t retained when Matt Nagy’s staff was let go last year.</p>
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<p id="pDRBuF">On the podcast, Michael called McGovern’s hire “five tiers below uninspiring.” It certainly seems like an odd choice to me, given that UCLA doesn’t have the right personnel for this scheme switch, he has zero West coast ties, and it’s been over a decade since he coached a good college defense during which time virtually every competitive team has abandoned this scheme as antiquated and unable to stop modern college offenses.</p>
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<p id="2NUCcg">The defensive line in previous seasons was best understood as a 3-down front. In 2022, the d-line will get two new coaches, move returners around to different techniques in the 4-down front, and face an extraordinarily high personnel turnover rate.</p>
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<p id="uG5IaF">They lose each of the five most experienced linemen last year: Otito Ogbonnia, Datona Jackson, Odua Isibor, and Tiaoalii Savea have left, and the aforementioned Manoa switched to the o-line. Four more young players who never played and have now transferred out would have been d-linemen had they stayed, I think: Christian Burkhalter, AJ Campbell, Tyler Kiehne, and John Ward; the first three of whom were 2021 recruits.</p>
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<p id="mRUqI4">The only experienced returner big enough to play tackle in this scheme is #93 DT Toia, a 4-star 2021 recruit whom UCLA lured away from USC after he signed with the Trojans. Toia played backup nose tackle as a true freshman in three games; I thought he looked fine but at 325 lbs I have a hard time seeing him shooting gaps in the new scheme (ironically, he probably would have fared better had he stayed at USC and gotten to play in their new 3-3-5). Michael says the most likely returner to play is #44 DT Andrus, a sixth-year senior who missed last season with an injury. It’s hard to know what to make of the rest of the returning tackle candidates who also haven’t played: #95 DT Havili-Kaufusi was injured in Spring, low 3-star #46 DT Harris seems to be a project at 251 lbs, and redshirt freshman 4-star #92 DT Somerville’s official weight is too small at 265 lbs. Of those three, Somerville is the most likely to break in based on pedigree if he’s bulked up since whenever his last weigh-in was; he had several older but less talented guys ahead of him last year and the staff had him redshirt, but that didn’t stop them from playing Toia.</p>
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<p id="pTVAA7">It’s more likely that UCLA starts the two transfers here: low 3-star upperclassmen Gary Smith from Duke and Jacob Sykes from Harvard. Both had about 25 tackles last year at their previous schools and each represent considerably more experience than all returning d-linemen combined. Assuming that they know what they’re doing in a 4-3 (time didn’t permit evaluating their film), this unit should be fine with a couple experienced albeit new-to-LA starters, some potentially talented but inexperienced backups, and some unknowns at depth. There are plenty of question marks surrounding everybody here, however, since body types seem inapposite for the scheme change and I can’t check them against a non-existent roster or Spring game, and Kelly hired another line coach Clay Helton fired at USC, DT coach Kauha’aha’a. So while I think the safest bet is that the tackles should be okay, it certainly wouldn’t shock me if this unit turns out to have depth or performance problems.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: UCLA at Southern California" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JS0D2FkmlfLQbyHajA5Dm574j0E=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761033/usa_today_17200136.jpg">
<cite>Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="DYZSRM">There is basically no returning experience at the new defensive end position, since the only returners lining up here (according to 2022 practice reports) were both playing linebacker last year. Those were #33 DE Calvert, whose film has been thoroughly unimpressive, and #35 DE C. Jones, who I liked as a speedy OLB in the previous system but is drastically underweight for the new job at 220 lbs. They also return previous high 3-star Notre Dame transfer #41 DE Aupui; I haven’t really seen him play but Michael says the staff has been bringing him along and at 250 lbs he’s got a better body type for the new position than Calvert or Jones. Rounding out the returners are low 3-star #48 DE Price and walk-on #96 DE Nelson who have reportedly been practicing with the ends, but I don’t expect to see them on the field in 2022.</p>
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<p id="Y2lzMj">Like the tackles, it’s far more likely that we see the new transfers starting at end: the twins from UNT Gabriel and Grayson Murphy. They were both mid 3-stars in the 2019 class and last year combined for 91 tackles, 27 TFLs, and 16 sacks with the Mean Green. Regardless of the quality of opponent those are incredible numbers and it’s very difficult to imagine that they don’t start for the Bruins. They’ve also taken Laiatu Latu, a 2019 mid 4-star from UW, but we haven’t really seen him play aside from a few backup reps his true freshman season since he’s been battling injuries almost his entire career.</p>
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<p id="cEWwbh">If Latu is healthy and playable, I think he and Aupui look like the best backup candidates to the Murphys. But if there are problems with those guys, this unit could have significant rotation or fatigue issues since nobody else looks ready to contribute at the starters’ projected level. I like new DE coach Malloe and think he was the only competent staff member at UW last year (UCLA currently lists him as OLB coach but that position doesn’t exist in the new scheme; doubtlessly Malloe is actually coaching the DEs and this confusion is likely another result of UCLA’s failure to post an updated roster in a timely manner); he’ll have a tricky job with so many transfers in the spotlight and converting undersized returning backers into playable ends.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: UCLA at Southern California" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5qavYBLqQ5Yi-RmkDKJVhsor-8A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761034/usa_today_17200592.jpg">
<cite>Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="2I9w9H">The linebacker unit is looking at a pretty dramatic transformation. In my experience, switching to a 4-3 structure usually upends the production because the inside/outside distinction disappears and bodies go from scheme fits to mismatches (and vice versa). So unlike most units most of the time, last year’s film and individual stats don’t do observers a lot of good here. Still, the amount of production on paper the backers are losing is substantial: Mitchell Agude, Jordan Genmark-Heath, Myles Jackson, and Caleb Johnson who combined for 106 tackles last year have all left the team, and Calvert and Jones who had 61 between them are apparently on the d-line now (and I have my doubts about their playing time there).</p>
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<p id="k3BYOz">The returners with some experience who have been practicing as backers are #10 LB Kaho, #20 LB Medrano, and #21 LB Vaughns. I wasn’t particularly impressed with their film last year, and although it’s a new scheme and so they could flip the switch, I haven’t been able to see much of them in it during Spring since the first two have been hurt and the last has been playing baseball. Four other scholarship returners round out the room, though I don’t have any stats recorded for them last year: #9 LB Bryant-Strother, #15 LB Newman, #0 LB Sellers, and #52 LB Trojan. I don’t expect to see much out of mid 3-stars Newman and Trojan, but Michael says that low 4-stars Bryant-Strother and Sellers may be much better fits for the new scheme according to their high school tape and they could break into the rotation or even supplant guys with far more reps than them for that reason.</p>
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<p id="RalCMH">Michael tells us that Hawaii transfer #53 LB Muasau has completely taken over practices at MIKE and that the entire linebacking unit is likely to be built around him. He was the Bows’ leading tackler last year with 108, and also racked up 14 TFLs and 7 sacks in 2021. With numbers like his, regardless of competition, I have no doubt Michael is right about that. It remains to be seen how the other starters and backups will perform, and I’d be concerned about everybody else given that a 2-star Mountain West player immediately passed up 4-stars Bryant-Strother, Kaho, Sellers, and Vaughns.</p>
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<p id="3JupUm">Including Muasau there are only four backers who played last year and that’s not enough to fill out a depth chart in a three-backer system, so some inexperienced guys will have to get some playing time on top of the challenge of switching schemes. Michael tells us that new LB coach Norton (a former Bruin LB himself) has taken to the job well and seems like he’s up to the task; it’s hard to imagine he’s not a substantial improvement on previous coach Don Pellum. Given how poorly backers have been managed at UCLA for as far back as I can remember this unit seems poised to take a step forward, but that’s a very low bar to clear, and depth and adaptation issues may still wind up as real problems.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Fresno State at UCLA" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/As4b3PSE2QQCm8QBZsT9BvJkmjM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761036/usa_today_16783462.jpg">
<cite>Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="ilsEOe">The departures in the secondary are staggering. UCLA is losing eight defensive backs who contributed significant minutes in recent years: Obi Eboh, Elisha Guidry, Martell Irby, Cameron Johnson, Qwuantrezz Knight, Quentin Lake, Jay Shaw, and DJ Warnell. They combined for 243 tackles last year, almost 70% of the secondary’s production in 2021. The Bruins are also losing three high 3-stars who didn’t play last year and got in the portal: Patrick Jolly, Shamar Martin, and Josh Moore.</p>
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<p id="34EJks">UCLA only returns four defensive backs with significant reps last year: #4 DB Blaylock, #28 DB Churchwell, #26 CB Kirkwood, and #7 CB Osling. Fifth-year senior Blaylock and true sophomore Kirkwood were 4-stars who combined for 76 tackles last year; Michael and I both think those are starters at safety and outside corner, respectively.</p>
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<p id="2iFphB">For the other outside corner spot, Michael seemed pretty sure that’s going to #6 CB Humphrey, a high 3-star from the 2020 class. That strikes me as odd because he’s only played a tiny number of backup reps so far, and because they’ve taken transfer #20 CB Hearn from Wyoming who was the starting outside corner for the Pokes and enrolled early for Spring practices with UCLA. Michael says that instead Hearn will be playing slot corner, which again seems odd to me because McGovern’s 4-3 only rarely puts five DBs on the field so that’d be quite a waste of experience when it’s in such short supply.</p>
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<p id="SiY4IL">It’s very difficult to peg the rest of the two-deep here because there are so few bodies and so little playing time returning. I would guess that Osling has a slot or corner job since he has some experience and has been around since 2017, at times over the years I thought he was the Bruins’ best DB in coverage (though that’s not saying a lot). Churchwell also has some experience at safety; Michael shared my assessment that he’s a hard hitter but not great in coverage. Beyond that it gets really dicey. 2018 walk-on #19 DB A. Johnson got a few reps last year, ahead of high 3-stars #31 DB Newcombe and #32 Nimmo plus low 3-star non-scholarship USAFA transfer #18 DB Woullard, none of whom played in 2021.</p>
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<p id="2Lu4ch">There are four other additions besides Hearn. Oregon 4-star Jaylin Davies transferred to UCLA and will enroll in the Fall, we saw very little of him as a cornerback in his true freshman season but he’s the most talented guy in the room on paper. UCLA took three prep recruits: low 4-stars Kamari Ramsey and Clint Stephens, and mid 3-star Croix Stewart. Stephens enrolled early but Michael says he was getting beat in coverage in practices. Ramsey and Stewart don’t arrive till the Fall; Michael tells us that the program has high hopes for the former but the latter is a project.</p>
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<p id="FoiDAC">So that’s only 14 defensive backs in the entire room, of whom one is a Mountain West transfer, two aren’t on scholarship, three are true freshmen, and four are on scholarship but basically didn’t play last year. The remaining four have some experience … in what’s been a terrible defense their entire careers. There is some talent here on paper, with five bluechips and an average 24/7 composite rating (excluding the walk-ons) of .88 for the whole secondary which is a high 3-star. So there’s a possibility that these guys come together and play just fine if they stay healthy, overcome their lack of experience, and get Norwood’s full attention now that he isn’t running the entire defense from the shadows. But as Michael put it on the podcast, “UCLA is scary, scary, scary thin in the defensive backfield. Any one injury wrecks the depth chart; any two injuries and you’re playing a coterie of walk-ons.”</p>
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<h3 id="NBwgyG">Accountability Corner</h3>
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<p id="69vukA">In <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/7/5/22563222/duck-dive-ucla-football-2021-preview">last year’s preview</a>, I predicted that Thompson-Robinson would keep his job despite some good buzz around the 2020 backup Griffin, and that Garbers was the most likely to challenge for the 2021 backup position while McQuarrie would transfer out – and that’s exactly how it went down. I thought that running back would remain the strength of the team despite the loss of their leading rusher, due to the pair of good-looking transfers in Charbonnet and Brown, and that’s how it went too. The receiver rotation went as predicted as well, though that one was easy since even a cursory glance at the stat sheet showed that if Philips was available he was getting most of the passes and it didn’t matter who else was on the field. I made a big deal of UCLA’s inadequate depth at tight end and the inability of anyone besides Dulcich to catch the ball given how heavily they rely on the position, and I still think that was a point worth making and salient for 2022, but Dulcich stayed healthy and played in every game so it was a moot one (notably, Fresno St’s defense made a special effort to keep him from getting the ball entirely and that ended up an upset loss). Offensive line was an easy prediction because they returned all seven guys from the 2020 rotation; I thought they’d be a good but not elite line due to their modest talent ratings and I still think that was a fair description, especially after watching them get torn up by the best pass rush they faced.</p>
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<p id="PDysX5">I thought that UCLA’s defense would face a net falloff with the loss of their most important player from 2020, disruptive d-lineman Osa Odighizuwa. It certainly wasn’t a good defense, with the 72<sup>nd</sup> ranking in F+, but that was only a fall of three spots from the previous season. It seems that his replacement Ogbonnia did a better job than I was anticipating in filling in for him, and he got drafted in the following cycle. Overall I think I’ve been too hasty in writing off the quality of former DL coach Nansen (who after being possibly unfairly dismissed from this staff landed at Arizona); in hindsight his lines each year have outperformed my predictions so I need to re-evaluate him in particular and my tools for assessing DL coaching in general. The backers and secondary all went exactly as I wrote, which required a lot of verbiage because those were wildly overrecruited positions in 2021 (and have now exited en masse in 2022, typical of poor roster management), but ultimately came down to only half a dozen actual predictions of which only one – the ILB – was a toughie.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon v UCLA" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SISRockZFeLK6cbb4R7GWnmMvVQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23761037/457199182.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Harry How/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="FiZd0o"></p>
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/7/12/23204760/duck-dive-ucla-football-2022-previewhythloday12022-07-05T07:01:00-07:002022-07-05T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: Washington Football 2022 Preview
<figure>
<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at Washington" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6yFBykSMdVNqFi-DPS4vYVvGpkg=/1x0:3541x2360/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71047463/usa_today_17111684.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Going deep with the Huskies’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns</p> <p id="9NbsoX">Special thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/gabeynotgabby">Gabey Lucas</a> of <a href="https://www.uwdawgpound.com/">UW Dawg Pound</a> for joining me on the Quack 12 Podcast to discuss Washington’s roster. <a href="https://quack12podcast.com/quack-12/2022/7/5/washington-roster-review-with-gabey-lucas-2022"><strong>LISTEN HERE</strong></a></p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="6h1wxc">
<h1 id="m05NBt">Offense</h1>
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<p id="qFOWW8">New head coach DeBoer, OC Grubb, and the rest of the staff from Fresno St over the last two seasons are taking over an offense that ranked 96<sup>th</sup> in F+ advanced stats. The Bulldogs were considerably better on offense, ranking 50<sup>th</sup> last year. Coincidentally they were Oregon’s 2021 opener, and they played UCLA shortly before Oregon did, so I did quite a bit of film study on this staff. I liked DeBoer’s offense and checked out some of his previous film when he was the OC at Indiana in 2019. It’s fairly wide open and modern offense, mostly operating out of 11-personnel, with a 2:1 preference for passing over designed runs – all of those things are pretty different from UW’s offense for most of the last decade and certainly last year’s putrid performance. I thought he picked up a lot of concepts from Jeff Tedford, an offensive mind I have a lot of respect for.</p>
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<p id="aSdYNI">DeBoer walks into a real puzzle in selecting his signal caller. Each of UW’s three potential starting quarterbacks has both a notable plus and a minus, making sorting out this race a challenge. #5 QB Morris has been the starter the last two seasons and is familiar with the considerable number of returning personnel, but his limited arm strength and frequent turnovers kept his NCAA passer rating last year at 123.6, well below the FBS average. Incoming Indiana transfer #9 QB Penix is more <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffRabjohns/status/1320151205432131584">accomplished</a> and experienced (5 more career games and 100 more pass attempts), plus he’s worked with DeBoer previously with the Hoosiers, but he’s been in a slump ever since and finished 2021 with an even worse 101.9 rating while battling injuries to both shoulders and having torn his right ACL (his plant leg as a southpaw) twice. 5-star redshirt freshman #7 QB Huard looks like he’s got all the talent in the world and is probably the future starter in years to come, but so far he’s only started one game in which he threw four interceptions and recorded a miserable 89.4 rating.</p>
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<p id="F1S5Fi">The best guess from both Gabey and me is that Penix will win the job in Fall camp with Morris as the primary backup, but by the end of the season Huard may be ready to surpass Morris at second-string. I think Morris is getting squeezed here between Penix’s greater experience and Huard’s greater raw talent, and we both suspect that he’ll wind up transferring out at some point. But I also think this race is pretty tight with all the different strengths and weaknesses here, and it wouldn’t take much to shake things up in the next few months.</p>
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<p id="uBv0sQ">The running backs used a four man-rotation last year, and Gabey and I have been talking for years about how that’s too many and they really should have just picked a lead back with some rotational relief. At any rate they lose the first- and third-leading rushers in Sean McGrew and Kamari Pleasant, as well as two 2021 recruits who’ve left the program without playing in Caleb Berry and Emeka Megwa.</p>
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<p id="EOOu2U">They return the second and fourth backs, #22 RB C. Davis and #6 RB Newton (though Davis needed 28 more carries to get the same number of yards as Pleasant, who was the only one to earn over 4 YPC). This was a pretty terrible rushing performance last year, ranking 125<sup>th</sup> in rushing yards per game in raw stats. We spent quite a bit of time on the podcast trying to figure out if Davis or Newton are salvageable backs in a better offense. What I gathered from <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/11/5/22763951/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-washington-2021">charting UW’s games</a> last year was:</p>
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<ul>
<li id="7LzPby">the offensive line was awful, allowing a very high stuff rate</li>
<li id="41SLqu">the playcalling was predictable, with formations that telegraphed the run</li>
<li id="Clpqu8">the per-play rush efficiency was decent at 57%, but the explosive run rate was atrocious at 8%</li>
<li id="GOrwcq">the “YACO” rate (runs that would have failed except the back muscled through) was high</li>
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<p id="iIXvjH">I put those things together to read that the rushers had the deck stacked against them and still would reliably get 3-5 yards per touch, but that’s all they’d ever get. So I agree with Gabey that if Davis and Newton were put in a better offense with a better line, they’d probably be serviceable.</p>
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<p id="1Iajee">The Huskies have added two transfers, #32 RB Dumas whom I saw in the Spring game and looked fine, and Wayne Taulapapa who’ll arrive in the Fall. Dumas got 4.8 YPC on 136 carries last year at New Mexico, and Taulapapa got 5.2 on 62 at Virginia. We’ll have to wait and see how they do in the new offense going up against new defenses, but I think DeBoer’s track record here should be a comfort to the Huskies - at Fresno St he developed two very high quality backs in Ronnie Rivers and Jordan Mims, and gave those guys the ball on over 95% of carries. In a room with probably four serviceable backs (or five if returning backup #26 RB Sunday who had 8 carries last year is counted), it’s hard to imagine that DeBoer will fail to pick out the one or two best and just focus on them.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 06 Oregon at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/OknLuRdoGn2KDJ0d0ZdzghYI-p8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23671098/1236406231.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="0RVq4n">The Huskies lose tight end Cade Otton, who was their ace in the hole for most of 2020 and 2021, although defenses started double covering him and that depressed his numbers somewhat (the NFL saw through that, and the Buccaneers selected him in the fourth round). They also lost three other backup tight ends who basically didn’t play last year, most notably 2020 4-star Mark Redman.</p>
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<p id="6kNBkt">Based on the Spring game, the playing time looks like it’ll be split up among three returners: #83 TE Culp, #37 TE Westover, and #88 TE Moore. Culp is the closest thing to the do-it-all tight end that Otton was, though I think both his hands and his blocking are less reliable (his vertical leap is very limited so he doesn’t get much of a height advantage on the coverage, or as Gabey put it on the podcast, “he’s not a jumpy boy”). Westover is a walk-on and I am honestly baffled whenever I see him on the field — he gets creamed when he tries to block and as a split-out receiver he’s less gifted than the actual inside WRs – but he’s been playing since 2018 and has a lot of experience under his belt. Moore was a high 3-star Juco; I’ve yet to see him put it together and he was behind Westover in the Spring game, but simply for the lack of any other experience I think he’ll be in the rotation.</p>
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<p id="vMBTUr">The only other two tight ends on scholarship are redshirt freshman low 3-star #35 TE Jumper and low 4-star 2022 recruit Ryan Otton (brother of Cade) enrolling in the Fall. From watching DeBoer’s film at three different schools, knowing what I do about how he designs offenses that are actually responsive to his roster’s talent profile, and discussing this at length on the podcast, I think we’ll see mostly 10- and 11-personnel out of UW instead of the frequent 2- and 3-TE sets of previous years. So I think we’ll pretty much only see Culp on the field, with some of Westover split out (as Gabey put it, “lowercase 12” personnel), and development time given to Moore and the younger Otton.</p>
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<p id="GnP8bc">The WR corps loses valuable possession receiver Terrell Bynum, as well as untested backup Sawyer Racanelli, to the transfer portal. Bynum was the second-leading receiver, right in between the two returning starters #11 WR McMillan and #1 WR Odunze who each had about ~440 yards apiece last year. They also return frequently used backup #3 WR T. Davis and sweep man #0 WR G. Jackson. In the Spring game I saw a lot of #2 WR Polk who’d previously transferred from Texas Tech; he flashed at times last season but was limited with a chest injury, though looked fully healthy and ready to be a starter in Spring.</p>
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<p id="KL5eJB">The receivers should be getting a few Fall additions as well - mid 3-star true freshman Denzel Boston and low 4-star redshirt freshman #15 WR Tinae (he missed some Spring practices with an injury but should be ready; Gabey says he caught a few balls towards the end of the Spring game which I didn’t see but it’s possible I zoned out due to boredom). There are two transfers, low 4-star Lonyatta “Junior” Alexander from Arizona St and mid 3-star William Nixon from Nevada, though neither played much last year. Apparently Nixon could play running back as well, but I don’t think that room needs the body as much as the wideouts do.</p>
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<p id="sn7YiG">I thought deep passing to this group of wide receivers was the only functional part of last year’s offense, and they’re returning all but one from it and should be in better health. At only nine scholarship guys (five proven returners, four unproven additions) I think the room is a bit smaller than ideal, and trading the certainty of Bynum for the unknown of the new kids gives me pause. But overall I think this unit should be just fine once again with an average 24/7 composite talent rating of .8974 (a low 4-star). That’s pretty remarkable given all the turnover in recent years.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon v Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/YwLvABTHE1T6Zje85LdOwdgnnho=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23671101/1351774722.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="mZOYUf">There’s a lively debate as to how much of the offensive struggle last year was due to former coordinator John Donovan’s antiquated and predictable playbook vs the obvious problems the offensive line had blocking in it. I can’t resolve that entirely but I can say that I’ve been charting the same poor footwork, hand placement, and assignment errors from this o-line for years prior to Donovan’s arrival, ever since OL coach Huff took over in 2017. I was astonished that he was retained by DeBoer, and more so to learn that there are still some UW fans who think this might work out. <a href="https://gfycat.com/gratefulorderlyhorsechestnutleafminer">Run-blocking problems</a> were the obvious issue last season, but I’ve been documenting the <a href="https://twitter.com/hythloday1/status/1405187934987247616">bizarre habit of short-setting</a> by the tackles and other pass-blocking problems for five straight years.</p>
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<p id="TRiEu0">The o-line loses the center Luke Wattenberg from last year’s starting lineup, and last year’s left guard has been converted to the defense, #68 DL Ale. Longtime starter #51 LT Kirkland got an NCAA waiver and will return, as will the starter at right guard for the last two years #66 OL Bainivalu, though both were unavailable for the Spring game so I got to watch some potential backups. Starter #79 RT Curne also returns, though he might be moved to guard.</p>
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<p id="FVeUt1">Notable returning backups are #78 OL Mele whom I’ve seen play both center and right tackle in relief over the past three seasons, #71 LG Kalepo who rotated with Ale last season, and #74 C Luciano who’s apparently the best snapping option despite sailing a whole lot over the QB’s head in the 2021 Spring game. I think those three returning starters and three returning backups will comprise the starting lineup plus sixth man in 2022, something like Kirkland-Kalepo-Luciano-Bainivalu-Curne, or maybe Mele at center or right tackle with Curne possibly bumping over to right guard. All except Kalepo are upperclassmen who started playing college ball in 2018 or earlier.</p>
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<p id="80rzXS">In the 2019, 2020, and 2021 recruiting cycles, UW landed seven 4-stars plus a high 3-star at offensive line. I’ve named one already, Kalepo, but the other seven of those eight potential o-line studs have never played a snap for the Huskies outside some scant garbage-time downs. I got to watch all of them in the 2022 Spring game (except one, #50 C Murao who was being held out), as they were on the number two and three offenses. These underclassmen are all significantly more talented on paper than the upperclassmen who have been getting starting reps and were playing with the ones in the Spring game. None of the underclassmen looked better to me going up against UW’s defense than the likely starters, but none looked significantly worse either. The upside for the Huskies is that I doubt an injury to any of the starters would affect the o-line’s performance much, since there’s so much available — albeit totally inexperienced — talent to fill in.</p>
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<p id="I6wm3J">The downside is given that the line will be basically the same personnel who performed so poorly last year, with the same position coach overseeing them, I cannot seriously entertain the prospect for improvement even if DeBoer installs a superior playbook to Donovan’s. Since many — possibly all — of the upperclassmen will graduate at the end of this season, Gabey pointed out that those 4-stars will likely form the bulk of the 2023 lineup. In my opinion, the only hope for a better performance in 2022 is if they switch it up now and invest in the future by playing the underclassmen. It remains to be seen if the new staff agrees.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon v Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/y6C-VtI5BzRxESHlFyV1E61TQSA=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23671102/1351774543.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="TC27Vr">
<h1 id="EHq5Ek">Defense</h1>
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<p id="NKyTgw">UW will undergo a scheme change on defense from a two-gapping 2-4-5 with very high safeties to a one-gapping 4-2-5 with a hybrid LB/S. In terms of personnel type the units map fairly cleanly from one system to the other, though the responsibilities at several positions will change somewhat.</p>
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<p id="ixW5DA">The system that new DC Inge runs seems to have been adopted from Dave Wommack’s defense (which I believe he developed at Southern Miss in the 1990s, though the history isn’t well documented), whose son Kane brought it with him when he took over as coordinator at Indiana in 2018. Prior to that, Inge had worked as LB and DL coach at a variety of schools and a three-year stint with the Buffalo Bills, but whenever I can find film for him before 2018 it’s not with this scheme. In Buffalo, Inge was demoted from DC to assistant DL coach in 2012, then went to Indiana where he was co-DC for three years before being demoted to LB coach and then special teams only when Wommack arrived. So it appears he’s a fairly recent convert to this 4-2-5 structure and its “Husky” nickel position (which doesn’t refer to UW’s mascot, that’s just a coincidence), and Inge has only been coaching it the last two seasons at Fresno St. That’s quite a change in lineage from former UW coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski’s system which he’d developed at Montana St over 20 years ago and the Huskies had been using, under three different DCs, for the past eight.</p>
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<p id="Of8i9V">Last season UW’s defense ranked 34<sup>th</sup> in F+, not bad for a 4-8 team whose lousy offense was constantly putting them in disadvantageous field position. But the disparity in defending the run vs the pass was enormous – <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/11/5/22763951/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-washington-2021">on my tally sheet</a> they were only successful stopping 41% of runs, but almost 58% of passes on a per-play basis. In raw stats, they were 109<sup>th</sup> in FBS in rushing yards allowed per game but 1<sup>st</sup> in passing yards. I suspect we’ll see a balancing out of those stats in 2022 with a greater emphasis on run-stopping, using more personnel in the box and no sky-high safeties (they should also have better linebacker coaching but are facing a steep reduction in cornerback talent).</p>
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<p id="grJw7m">The two starting defensive linemen in the previous 2-4-5 system were both former 4-stars from the 2018 class, #91 DT Letuligasenoa who returns and Sam Taimani who transferred to Oregon. They’ve also lost two other players who were touted recruits but never really played over several years in Seattle, Draco Bynum and Noa Ngalu. Even though Inge’s defense calls for somewhat different responsibilities for Letuligasenoa, I think he’s one of the best interior linemen in the conference and the transition to a tackle in this front should be smooth.</p>
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<p id="gjyomZ">The rest of the unit is fairly light in both experience and, in my opinion, real talent. #55 DT Bandes and #99 DT Tuitele were both mid 4-stars in the 2019 class but I’ve seen very little production out of them in the last three years; Tuitele wasn’t playing in the Spring game and Bandes was with the twos. It appears that a couple of high 3-stars from the 2021 class have surpassed them, #98 DT Peihopa and #90 DT Tunuufi, as both were with the ones in the Spring game and looked better than Bandes to me. Gabey thinks Peihopa will be the other starter; I’d agree based on his size since Tunuufi needs to add at least another 10-15 lbs to really work with this system, though it should be said Peihopa only has two tackles in his college career. Each of those four got some experience last year, though they were well behind the Letuligasenoa and Taimani and have fewer combined reps than either of the starters individually.</p>
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<p id="GEFzLy">There are four more guys in this room who didn’t play last year. Three are low 3-star freshman: #93 DT Finau who redshirted in 2021, and twins Armon and Jayvon Parker who’ll arrive in the Fall; Gabey described all of them as projects who are unlikely to play in 2022. There’s also Ale, the converted offensive guard, who was playing throughout the Spring game but to me he looked like he was still learning the role and about 30 lbs heavier than ideal, with similar footwork issues as plagued his time on the other side of the ball.</p>
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<p id="nGsMoj">The defensive tackles will need four playable guys at any given time; it appears that they’ll have one great starter, four solid if unspectacular complements in the rotation, and four depth guys. That’s more than enough and they should be able to survive a couple of injuries without much problem, though I think the loss of Taimani probably hurts and I’d rate this unit as holding steady at best or maybe a small step back.</p>
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<p id="40Msu5">The defensive ends look like they have some more effective options, but a lot fewer of them. I think they’ll have four good-looking guys converted from the previous system’s OLB position: returners #45 DE Heims, #3 DE Martin, #45 DE Trice, and #58 DE Tupuola-Fetui. The former Texas A&M transfer Martin and 2020’s sensation Tupuola-Fetui were playing with the ones in the Spring game, with redshirt freshman Heims (who came over from Germany; Gabey told an interesting story about him on the podcast) and Trice (who came on strong at the end of 2021) with the twos.</p>
<p id="tN0qIM">Ryan Bowman, Leiatu Latu, and Jordan Lolohea, each of whom I think would have been ends in this system, have left the program. There’s only one other scholarship returner, former 5-star #17 DE Smalls, but he was held out of the Spring game and at any rate I don’t think will be useful in this defensive structure after disappointing the last two years and being a complete liability in rush defense. My guess is that he’ll transfer out eventually and I’m surprised he didn’t before the May 1<sup>st</sup> deadline; Gabey disagreed and bet that Smalls will have more tackles than Heims by the end of the year. I look forward to collecting.</p>
<p id="FD32Dl">The problem here is that’s the end of the room. Technically there are four returning walk-ons, but three are redshirt freshmen and none have played. They added an unrated Juco, Sekai Afoa-Asoau, and a mid 3-star 2022 recruit, Lance Holtzclaw, but neither were available for Spring practice and I doubt they see the field unless injuries force the situation. Based on film study of Fresno St, this unit needs four playable guys in the rotation and I think they only have four, making a single injury a pretty dire event.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/xTffWU8bpDQnc-h2uJCqNGe1aO0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23671106/usa_today_17111554.jpg">
<cite>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="EdARHm">The two inside linebacker spots last year rotated six different guys, in part due to some injuries and in part simply struggling to find good play out of a unit long plagued with poor recruiting and development by the previous staff. Three of those six have transferred out: Jackson Sirmon, Cooper McDonald, and MJ Tafisi, as has Will Latu who sat out his true freshman season <a href="https://247sports.com/Article/Former-four-star-Will-Latu-looking-to-get-back-to-playing-177636754/">with a concussion</a>.</p>
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<p id="WiuaIY">The most intriguing of the returners, former walk-on #48 LB Ulofoshio, missed Spring with an injury and will likely miss some of the early season games. #42 LB Bruener had the second-most tackles of the unit behind Sirmon and seemed to really be coming on at the end of last year, though curiously he was with the twos in the Spring game. The sixth most tackles went to the only 4-star in the unit, #15 LB Heimuli, and he was in with the threes and fours.</p>
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<p id="nk7yk8">There’s a lot of room for a shake-up here, in other words, and I think it’ll come from a relatively inexperienced returner, mid 3-star 2019 recruit #11 LB Tuputala, and a trio of transfers in #2 LB Bright from Pitt, Juco #21 LB King, and Fall enrollee Kristopher Moll from UAB. Bright and King, both low 3-stars, were in with the ones and twos with Tuputala and Bruener, and looked more playable to me than Heimuli and #54 LB Fowler, a mid 3-star who showed up late in the Spring game. Moll was playing a hybrid LB/S in Birmingham for four years though he got injured and missed much of 2021. Gabey says he’ll be in the ILB room in Seattle, though his most recent listed weight is 15-20 lbs underweight for that position.</p>
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<p id="lYcOEM">Between the experience (Bright, Bruener, and Ulofoshio combined for 174 tackles last year), depth, and what has to be much better coaching, I expect this unit to improve compared to previous years. But that’s a low bar to clear and there are a lot of questions hovering over this unit between so many transfers, lingering health problems, potential issues clicking with the new staff and scheme, and a fairly low talent rating on paper.</p>
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<p id="eq9iAM">During my <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/9/3/22654331/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-fresno-state-2021">film study of Fresno St’s 2020-21 seasons</a>, the “Husky” position underwent several personnel changes. It seemed that Inge had inherited from the previous staff in Fresno a surplus of ILBs and he tried out different ones in the role, and in box presence vs coverage the H played a lot more like a backer than a safety. The huge structural weakness which almost every Mountain West opponent exploited was that in man coverage the way they align the H on the field lets the QB run away from him, and several offenses changed their starter to a running QB to attack that defensive gap. The results on my tally sheet were shocking – a 55% defensive success rate against RB runs vs a 24% success rate against QB runs.</p>
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<p id="R1oT4c">It looks like Inge is instead drawing from UW’s safety surplus for the H this time, with converted defensive backs #7 H Hampton and #13 H Fabiculanan. In the Spring game these guys were playing much more like the nickel DBs that UW has deployed for a long time. Hampton, a mid 3-star from 2018, was a rotational safety last year (the staff benched him for four games after a taunting penalty against Michigan); Fabiculanan, a low 4-star from 2019, got a few backup reps in 2021. What’s notable about both of them is that they’re a lot faster than the Bulldogs’ converted ILBs, and if anything could address the structural weakness of this defense it’d be speed at the position to close on the QB. If last year’s nickel Brendan Radley-Hiles had returned he’d have been perfect for this position, but he declared early and is now with the Bengals.</p>
<p id="e3TNOC"></p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JI8y0CqwpRb5w8IBIAu4JGoekLY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23671110/usa_today_17111039.jpg">
<cite>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<p id="W6vHW4"></p>
<p id="elGthd">At the traditional safety spots, the entire rotation returns: starters #5 DB Cook and #20 DB Turner, and backups #29 DB Irvin and #6 DB C. Williams. They were used in the same way in the Spring game, with the former pair running with the ones and the latter with the twos. These guys are the last of the low 4-star and high 3-star DBs the previous staff had recruited, and while I think their overall level of play is lower than the safeties during Huskies’ glory days in 2016-18, they’re clear talent standouts compared to the rest of the defensive roster outside one starting DT. It should be interesting to see them on my screen more often now that they won’t be lining up 30 yards deep.</p>
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<p id="ViY9jL">The depth here is just freshmen who haven’t yet played, mid 3-star redshirts #24 DB Esteen and #28 DB Nunley, plus 2022 recruit Tristan Dunn who arrives in the Fall. I didn’t see Esteen and Nunley until pretty late in the Spring game and I doubt Dunn breaks into the rotation early, so unless this unit is unusually hard hit by injuries I suspect only the four returning upperclassmen will take the field.</p>
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<p id="dEAqVS">The talent dropoff in the cornerback room is breathtaking. All of the bluechips have departed: last year’s starters Trent McDuffie and Kyler Gordon were drafted in the first and second rounds respectively, and backup Jacobe Covington has transferred to USC. I thought this was the best cornerback unit in the Pac-12 by a significant margin and their losses are going to be a real adjustment.</p>
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<p id="cOyFr9">The most experienced returner is 2019 walk-on #23 CB Powell, who had 11 tackles last year. He was playing with the ones in the Spring game alongside unrated FCS transfer #1 CB Perryman. The next most experienced returner was walk-on freshman #16 CB Banks, who had one tackle last year. He was with the twos, alongside redshirt freshmen #19 CB McCutcheon and #14 CB Spears, both mid 3-stars. The final two scholarship corners are redshirt freshman mid 3-star #25 CB E. Jackson and true freshman low 3-star Jaivion Green, but neither were available for Spring. There are two other walk-ons in the room who haven’t played yet and I didn’t see in Spring, unrated Juco #34 CB Hill and unrated redshirt freshman Nagarajan.</p>
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<p id="RgdxUR">The starters here aren’t hard to guess, it’ll be Perryman and Powell since they have some experience and the staff played them first in the Spring game. Beyond those two it’s a toss-up, nobody has any experience or serious talent on paper and they’re all freshmen. I find myself surprised at how much UW fans and the Pac-12 media are whistling past this graveyard; they’re going from the best unit in the league — and a tentpole of the entire team for the better part of a decade — to quite possibly the worst on the entire West coast in any division.</p>
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<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="oxZnob">
<p id="Gxnlc1"></p>
<h3 id="C0nfqG">Accountability Corner</h3>
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<p id="LGexHJ">In <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/6/21/22542710/duck-dive-washington-football-2021-preview">last year’s preview</a>, I opened with three paragraphs about the slide UW has been on since their peak in 2016, with an inexperienced staff committed to a moribund culture and talent that never sees the field. It reads as remarkably prescient in light of last year’s 4-8 season and season-opening loss to an FCS school.</p>
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<p id="dbsnse">I think I accurately described Morris’ passing problems, though I didn’t explicitly predict all the interceptions he’d throw. I think I nailed the WR room, both the lineup and as being the best unit on the team, which was a counter-intuitive call because they had lost five guys including clearly the most talented to the portal that offseason. In reviewing the TEs I discussed how much their use in the formation gave away the play and it certainly turned out to be painfully predictable; I also talked up Otton quite a bit and I still think that was appropriate despite his numbers, since even a cursory look at the film will show how much defenses focused on taking him away. I thought that the running back Davis ought to be selected as the primary back, which given his numbers in 2021 doesn’t look great but I still stand by it; I also predicted that that wouldn’t happen and they’d go with an ineffectively large rotation and that certainly did. I had a lot of negative things to say about the returning starters at offensive line and their position coach, and all of that seems particularly spot-on now. But I also said I thought it’d be one of the best o-lines in the league (though tempered that by saying this league’s o-lines are terrible so that’s not saying much) and I’m not sure they cleared that bar. <a href="https://twitter.com/hythloday1/status/1528013680746455040">Statistically they were a mixed bag</a>, with pretty decent TFL and 3<sup>rd</sup> down numbers but lousy sack and rushing yardage numbers. I think my hesitation to call them a straight-up bad o-line is justified by hindsight, though they were pretty clearly a big problem in the structure of a run-first offense. I regret not being as forceful in my article as I have been on the podcast on this subject.</p>
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<p id="tf4c8t">I went out on a limb and called Gregory’s promotion to DC from the underperforming linebacker unit as a neutral or maybe a positive, contrary to the widespread laughter that it provoked in the commentariat, and I think their #34 ranking justifies that. I also think that describing the failure to get new or more experienced position coaches in as the real problem was also accurate. I thought that the increasing 3-4 looks we’d seen and on-paper talent at d-line indicated the possibility of a switch away from the constant 2-4 front they’d used in previous years; that turned out not to happen at all and it’s made me re-evaluate several of UW’s d-lineman in hindsight – I probably should have looked harder at those guys’ lack of production. The rest of the defense – OLBs, ILBs, safeties, and corners – were all described perfectly accurately, though this wasn’t much of a challenge since the rotation was very clear from 2020 and the quality of each player was obvious to anyone who took a passing look at their film.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Oregon at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Uf_zWV4UuA_U9fBOA0NpKBiUG5s=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23671140/usa_today_17108888.jpg">
<cite>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/7/5/23194850/duck-dive-washington-football-2022-previewhythloday12022-06-28T07:01:00-07:002022-06-28T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: USC Football 2022 Preview
<figure>
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 23 UCLA at USC" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qVrxxgyet7MWlu599dHco6be9jo=/0x0:5184x3456/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71024119/1185620127.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Jordon Kelly</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Going deep with the Trojans’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns</p> <p id="ZbbZbA">Special thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/penguinoftroy">Alica de Artola Castillo</a> of <a href="https://reignoftroy.com/">Reign of Troy</a> for joining me on the Quack 12 Podcast to discuss the Trojans’ roster: <a href="https://quack12podcast.com/quack-12/2022/6/28/usc-roster-review-with-alicia-de-artola-castillo-2022"><strong>LISTEN HERE</strong></a></p>
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<p id="nhtjyS"><em>Nota bene</em>: Last December I wrote extensively about current USC head coach Riley, DC Grinch, and several other coaches and players who’ve since transferred to USC when <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/12/29/22857948/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-oklahoma-2021">previewing Oklahoma</a> ahead of the Alamo Bowl. That article includes video clips and analyses of the offensive and defense schemes plus key personnel including USC’s likely starting quarterback. After watching the 2022 USC Spring game and talking with Alicia, I think this year’s Trojans will largely resemble last year’s Sooners and that article is still current. Conversely, while I charted much of USC’s film in 2021, after firing the head coach following week 2 the team clearly packed it in and that data is nearly worthless, so I find myself even more dependent on Spring game tape than usual and that’s often patchy.</p>
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<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="1Surel">
<h1 id="yz4GaP">Offense</h1>
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<p id="fcQFVP">When watching then-true freshman #13 QB C. Williams take over Oklahoma’s offense midseason last year, I thought he had future Heisman potential if he could clean up some understandable freshman flaws in his game, most notably holding the ball too long and looking for the perfect play. We’ll have to wait and see if he does this season after transferring to USC – their recent Spring game just wasn’t enough data on that question – but I still think he has elite promise in his sophomore season and that the offense that HC Riley brought with him from Norman is a great match for his skill set.</p>
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<p id="9i0XTW">I have a harder time getting a read on 4-star backup #7 QB Moss, also of the 2021 class. He only got a few reps in a single game last year since he was behind both Kedon Slovis and Jaxson Dart, and those two have now transferred out. Alicia and I both think he was well behind Dart in the 2021 Spring game, and the 2022 Spring game didn’t give me much more clarity since he was behind the number-two offensive line and they did a terrible job protecting him. Riley has heaped praise on him this offseason, but Alicia pointed out that the only thing we can say for certain about Moss is that he didn’t have Dart’s escapability.</p>
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<p id="AN22C5">Beyond those two there’s no real depth in the QB room other than warm bodies, since it’s five guys who were unrated out of high school - #30 QB Hasan who transferred from Vanderbilt a couple years ago but has been injured his entire time in Los Angeles, incoming Juco Jake Jenson who isn’t on campus yet, two returning walk-ons in #38 QB Aoki and #31 QB Ward, and new walk-on Gage Roy. I’d bet on Jenson being the third-stringer when he arrives simply because he’s thrown the ball before in something resembling college football. Alicia says that if Williams is unavailable it’s “a pretty good falloff” in USC’s production; Moss is still mostly a question mark and there’s no appreciable talent behind him.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon v USC" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J5ahTbT94-PMBuKpZb2Js6pwv6w=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23652680/1185144935.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Harry How/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<p id="lH4Lt7">The running back room will be almost completely different in 2022. USC is losing the top two rushers from 2021 in Keaontay Ingram and Vavae Malepeai, plus backups Brandon Campbell, Kenan Christon, and Quincy Jountti who’d combined for 119 touches over the last three seasons. There are only two returners, #22 RB Barlow who was a high 3-star transfer from TCU and got 4.7 YPC on 62 carries for USC last year as the third-stringer, and #34 RB Colombo, a redshirt sophomore walk-on who hasn’t played.</p>
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<p id="8AbuED">USC has added three backs, transfers #26 RB Dye from Oregon and #6 RB Jones from Stanford, plus high 4-star recruit Raleek Brown who’ll arrive in the Fall. Dye needs no elaboration here; Alicia wasn’t wild about Jones’ production at Stanford but I’ll vouch for him after watching his film for three years – I think he’s very talented and just needs a better offense. I think it’s clear that Dye has the starting job, and I believe Jones will get the second spot with Barlow and Brown battling it out in Fall camp for third string.</p>
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<p id="HZrIyT">I have high expectations of the transfers, but there’s still some uncertainty in this room. I think Dye will be going from one of the best <a href="https://twitter.com/hythloday1/status/1528013680746455040/photo/3">run-blocking o-lines</a> to one of the most underperforming, Jones still needs to prove what I suspect about his potential with a good offense, Barlow looks like a journeyman, and Brown wasn’t on campus in Spring. As much as there is to like about this room, as we discussed on the podcast there’s probably no magic-making gamechanger here like Kennedy Brooks was for Oklahoma last year, and considering how small the unit is it wouldn’t take much bad news to significantly derail production from what Riley is used to.</p>
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<p id="QYLo83">USC has been sporadically incorporating tight ends into its Air Raid-adjacent offense for the last several years, and Alicia and I have remarked in the past how unusually large this room is for how little production they get. It’s shrinking a bit in 2022 with two departures: Erik Krommenhoek who was their longtime blocking H-back has graduated, and Michael Trigg who had some real flashes as a true freshman last year has transferred out. There are no additions to the room from the portal or prep ranks.</p>
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<p id="ofQrIl">From my film study of Riley’s offense at Oklahoma (and the offensive line he’s inheriting at USC) I’m sure that he would like to have strong blocking tight ends, but I’m not sure he’ll have them in 2022. In the Spring game only two were available: #19 TE Epps who’d previously transferred from Texas and caught 10 passes last year at USC, and #18 TE Wolfe who caught eight. Both are upperclassmen and were low 4-stars out of high school, but I was shocked at how poorly they were blocking in the Spring game.</p>
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<p id="gdCn9j">There are three other returners, all of whom have been injured or otherwise unavailable: #87 TE McRee, #83 TE Falo, and #85 TE Rae. I don’t expect Falo or Rae will ever play. McRee did play last year as a high 3-star true freshman, but only in three games to preserve his redshirt. I didn’t get very good eyes on him since those were garbage time minutes (as was, arguably, the entire season), but Alicia says he looked like a pretty promising pass-catcher. To me, the issue is that USC doesn’t need any help catching the ball given their astonishingly talented WR corps, but they do need a lot of help blocking … and between McRee’s injury holding him out of the Spring game and only weighing in at 230 lbs as a redshirt freshman, I don’t have a lot of confidence they’ll get it from him. So it remains to be seen if Riley will be able to use TEs at USC the way he was accustomed to at Oklahoma.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 19 Oregon at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5UHiOpLBJZ16bB_is_PDgJr1djU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23652682/1176921146.jpg">
</figure>
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<p id="sIW2Xy">The wide receivers lose one very significant player in Drake London (who I think was headed for a Biletnikoff award before he got hurt, with over 1,000 receiving yards in less than eight full games), and four others who were essentially non-factors last year in Joseph Manjack, Bru McCoy, KD Nixon, and Jake Smith.</p>
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<p id="XO4kQs">London is 6’5” and his size was a great advantage last year; in 2022 there won’t be anybody that big in the WR corps and I expect there’ll be a lot of fluidity between what are traditionally height-based divisions of inside and outside receivers - at Oklahoma in 2021, only one of the top five WR targets was over 6’0”. That said, it’s somewhat difficult to pick out the rotation here because USC is spoiled for choice between three productive returners, three backups, four top-notch portal additions, and one very talented 2022 recruit.</p>
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<p id="G2Bdyr">The tall guys in the room are returners #81 WR K. Ford, #80 WR Joh. Jackson, and #10 WR Ware-Hudson (brother of the Oregon DE), plus Colorado transfer #2 WR Rice (son of the legendary Jerry Rice). None of these receivers topped 300 yards last year, but I think the returners were stuck in a scheme that didn’t use them behind London while Rice was just stuck in an awful offense, and I was seeing all of them much more extensively in the Spring game than their past production might have predicted. They’ll also be joined by high 4-star CJ Williams in the Fall, I didn’t see him in the Spring game.</p>
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<p id="4iDQ2V">USC will have six shorter receivers at 6’0” or under (eight, if counting a returner and transfer who were both unrated). The headliner is Jordan Addison, the actual 2021 Biletnikoff-winning slot receiver from Pitt, but they’ll have a lot of additional talent in this category from transfers #0 WR Bynum from Washington and #4 WR Mar. Williams from Oklahoma, plus returners #1 WR Bryant, #13 WR M. Jackson, and #16 WR Washington. Bryant was a high 4-star and Washington a low 3-star who’d previously transferred from Memphis, they were the next two leading receivers after London. There are so many good options here — Bynum and Washington providing high floors and Addison, Bryant, and Williams showing very high ceilings – that I don’t think Riley will constrain himself to putting just one on the field on any given snap.</p>
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<p id="jF86vW">I suspect that one of two things will happen here (or possibly both): they put a short guy on the outside, or the tight end will be taken out of the formation and they go four-wide with two short inside receivers and two tall outside ones. It’s hard to imagine that USC screws up the two-deep selection at WR – as we joked about on the podcast, they could pick names out of a hat and out-talent just about anyone – but there are some interesting roster management issues that we discussed at length. Much of this WR corps will likely be departing in a year or so and managing the development of young recruits like Williams and Ware-Hudson vs stopgap transfers and even younger 2023 commits will be tricky going forward.</p>
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<p id="ec0ljl">On the podcast, Alicia and I spent the most time discussing the offensive line of any unit, since it’s the most obvious Achilles heel of the squad and has been for the last several years. In addition to the personnel matters, we talked about USC’s challenges of recruiting the position, their attempt to lure away Bill Bedenbaugh — Oklahoma’s OL coach for the last ten years — and ultimately settling for Texas A&M’s OL coach Henson from a fairly different system, and the misconception that Riley’s offense is “o-line optional” and in fact puts unusually high demands on the linemen with its power RPO scheme and complex pass protections.</p>
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<p id="m6ppQQ">Henson will be the Trojans’ fourth OL coach in five years, and he’s got his work cut out for him in 2022. There were nine departures from this unit, including last year’s starters on the right side of the line Liam Jimmons and Jalen McKenzie, plus seven backups. I was never wild about those starters but I have no idea as to the value of the backups since I didn’t see them play over any of the last six seasons that they were on the team, and Alicia suggested that many or even all left because they were never going to play.</p>
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<p id="tbERa0">Three starters return: #62 C Neilon who’s the longtime snapper, #57 OG Dedich who appears to be moving from left guard to right, and #72 OL Vorhees who is moving back to left guard after spending last year at tackle which is probably more appropriate for his body type. I’ve never been impressed with Neilon and have years’ worth of tape of him getting run over straight up the middle, but I think Dedich and Vorhees will be competent if unspectacular guards. We also know that Dedich can play center (in fact I think he’s better than Neilon at it) and Vorhees could go back to tackle, so there’s some flexibility built in here in case of unavailabilities or if the staff wants to make a change.</p>
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<p id="guBLaY">From the Spring game it appears that USC will be trying out #74 LT C. Ford and #79 RT Monheim as tackles, at least to begin with. Both were 2020 recruits; I haven’t really seen Monheim before but Ford made a couple appearances as a true freshman due to some unavailbilities in that difficult season. I was pretty unimpressed with both of their performances in the Spring game and I think their listed weights are inaccurate because they look very skinny to me. Alicia and I discussed the possibility that the starting lineup may shift in Fall camp or midseason if either or both aren’t working out.</p>
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<p id="DMzdsC">It’s difficult to come up with alternate solutions, however, as there are only seven other scholarship returners plus one transfer, and their blocking with the number two and three offenses in the Spring game was painful to watch. USC took no OL recruits in the 2022 class.</p>
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<p id="Szu5BF">The transfer, #70 OT Haskins who was a starting tackle at Virginia, was held out of the Spring game with an injury. Assuming he’s healthy, Haskins is the sixth man or maybe a starter, but his status is unknown and I have no way of knowing how well he’d fit into this offense or if he’s any good. If it’s not Haskins, Alicia and I are both stumped how else to solve this puzzle in case of injury, because the second-string tackles in Spring were a 3-star redshirt freshman and a walk-on Div-II transfer; as mentioned above they were collapsing instantly and not giving Moss any time to throw. If they move Vorhees to tackle then I don’t know how they would fill the guard void that creates, since the second-string guards were even less appealing.</p>
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<p id="lnXFmV">I think that if Haskins is available and works out, the line picks up the new scheme gracefully, they stay healthy the entire year, and the new OL coach can get better play out of them than they’ve shown in earlier and simpler systems, then this group could perform adequately for Riley’s purposes and the offense could match the production he was fielding at Oklahoma. But that’s a lot to ask.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 04 William &amp; Mary at Virginia" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/K9miNxEtsPQY0a3AtFmiECH3Kn8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23652684/1235132077.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Lee Coleman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="ssMNap">
<h1 id="insb44">Defense</h1>
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<p id="p9xudv">Riley brought DC Grinch with him from Oklahoma, where he’d been the coordinator for the last three seasons. Prior to that it was one season with Ohio St in 2018, and three seasons at Wazzu from 2015-17. His system has stayed pretty similar throughout that seven-year career – a 3-3-5 with one OLB (or “RUSH” in today’s parlance, but he still has coverage duties) on the line for an even surface, and some pre-snap stemming where the down linemen hop over laterally to change their technique.</p>
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<p id="hSpt8T">Grinch provokes quite a bit of controversy in the advanced stats community. I count myself a skeptic, since he only has two spikes into the top 25 in F+ rankings – in 2017 when, as I wrote about <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/23/23179447/duck-dive-washington-state-football-2022-preview">last week</a>, he enjoyed extraordinary turnover luck, and in 2020 which is a season that will always have an asterisk in the record books. The other three of the last four seasons at bluebloods he’s turned in rankings of 33<sup>rd</sup>, 53<sup>rd</sup>, and 56<sup>th</sup> – well below those schools’ exceptional talent rankings. In my <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/12/29/22857948/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-oklahoma-2021">film study of Oklahoma’s last season</a> I thought it was particularly counterproductive that Grinch has his DBs play with really unorthodox hips in relation to the sideline and they constantly got cooked:</p>
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<div id="jzxEVZ"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%; padding-top: 44px;"><iframe src="https://gfycat.com/ifr/ringeddistortedelephantseal" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="encrypted-media;"></iframe></div></div>
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<p id="R1d6Kn">The previous DC at USC for the past two seasons, Todd Orlando, ran a Tite front and the d-line responsibilities don’t map perfectly onto Grinch’s system, but it’s also a 3-down front so we can basically project there won’t be real changes as to who’s a nose, end, and OLB here. Separating out the OLB/RUSH position, the down linemen lose Jacob Lichtenstein who was heavily used in the rotation, plus a couple backups who didn’t play have transferred out, Ishmael Sopsher and Maninoa Tufono.</p>
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<p id="K1Ldsu">They return the other three guys used in frequent rotation, #49 DL Tuipulotu and #50 DL Figueroa who were high 3-stars I think are pretty good ends for this system, and #47 DL Ta’ufo’ou who I think will continue to play nose and has a lot of experience but is somewhat undersized for it. Right now I think those three returners will form the first line of the rotation and I was seeing them the most during the Spring game. To me the only real question here is if #91 DL Pili is back to full health since he missed last season with an injury; if so he’s a much bigger body than Ta’ufo’ou and could be a better option at nose.</p>
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<p id="7sdVKu">It’s more difficult to figure out the rest of the rotation, because there’s not a lot of talent here – there isn’t a single bluechip in the unit and the average 24/7 composite rating is about .85, a mid 3-star. While they took four guys from the portal (and no prep recruits), those transfers are all less talented than the returners, including two who were 2-stars out of high school, and Alicia and I both think they’ll probably stick with the returners and the additions are just backfilling depth.</p>
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<p id="TQLOPB">The additional returners with some experience last year are #79 DL Benton and #77 DL Sekona, I saw them playing with the twos in the Spring game. I didn’t see redshirt freshman #90 DL Mobley or redshirt sophomore #94 DL Pepe last year or in Spring, and I suspect that all the low-rated but somewhat experienced transfers are about taking their spots. There are plenty of bodies here so depth should be fine, but I think there’s a real falloff in ability after the top three (or four, counting Pili) so the rotation may be pretty uneven and I’d be worried about the effects of an injury.</p>
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<p id="YonLZa">It will be interesting to see how this roster is managed in the future, since Figueroa, Pili, and several of the transfers are probably on their last season. Alicia suggested that they might do another wave of transfers in the future and we discussed the wisdom of getting on the “transfer treadmill” on the podcast.</p>
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<p id="dh7Aqy">The outside backers, conversely, are pretty talented but there are only a few of them. They’ve lost last year’s starter Drake Jackson to the 49ers, plus Hunter Echols, Juliano Falaniko, and Eli’jah Winston to the transfer portal. Curiously, Winston was playing extensively in the Spring game but left afterwards. All were 4-stars.</p>
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<p id="CWtc6m">I suspect we’ll see a real Fall camp battle between true sophomore 5-star #0 OLB Foreman and the transfer from Auburn and borderline 4-star #2 OLB Height for the starting job. Both played eight games last year in backup rotation and were with the number-one defense on alternating drives in the Spring game. This is likely to be a pretty effective position regardless of who wins and who’s the primary backup, though Alicia and I discussed on the podcast whether Foreman is truly living up to billing.</p>
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<p id="Rscymq">For depth, there are a couple redshirt seniors playing in the Spring game with the twos who I think have moved over from other positions in the defense: #54 OLB Katoa and #58 OLB Tuliaupupu. They’ve also taken a mid 3-star 2022 recruit who’ll arrive in the Fall, Devan Thompkins. Considering that Grinch really only puts one OLB on the field except for the rare situational play, having a five-man room with only two really promising-looking guys seems fine to me, and the only real question here is the Foreman vs Height competition.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Akron at Auburn" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/zshv5rsX8buxycgr7S1wvtK87Kg=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23652687/usa_today_16690687.jpg">
<cite>John Reed-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="b2Nn30">The inside backers lose one starter, Kana’i Mauga, the third man in the rotation, Raymond Scott, and two depth guys who had few to no snaps, Jordan Iosefa and Kaulana Makaula. They return the other starter, #10 ILB Goforth, and I would have guessed he’d have his job secure in 2022, but Alicia says some newcomers may displace him.</p>
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<p id="wUeJK8">The two main threats there are the Alabama transfer #53 ILB Lee, who was playing with the ones for USC, and the Arizona St transfer Eric Gentry, who came in after both teams played their Spring games. Lee was a mid 4-star in the 2019 class and took over the starting job in Tuscaloosa as a true freshman when Dylan Moses got hurt, but I believe he himself was hurt in 2020 and his playing time was severely limited the last two seasons. Gentry was a backup for the Sun Devils last year as a mid 3-star true freshman but he was starting to take over by the end of that season and his loss was a real blow to that team. It should be an interesting Fall camp to see if Lee is really ready to go again and if Gentry is prepared to be a fulltime starter as a true sophomore. Alicia says that Lee has taken over the room and she bets he’s locked in, and the real battle is between Goforth and Gentry when he arrives to see who’s the starter and who’s the third man.</p>
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<p id="lPYPiv">I don’t have high expectations for the backups, however. #30 ILB Thompson was a low 4-star who transferred in from Auburn the previous season, he only got a handful of tackles in what I think was a pretty weak room last year. The three other scholarship returners, #9 ILB Davis, #44 ILB Nomura, and #24 ILB Simon, all played few to no reps last year. Davis and Simon were 4-stars in the 2021 class so there’s still some time for them but Nomura was a 2019 mid 3-star and I suspect he’s been eclipsed. They’ve also added two 2022 mid 3-stars who’ll arrive in the Fall, Carson Tabaracci who originally signed with Utah but didn’t make it to campus before USC lured him away, and Garrison Madden who Alicia says is incredibly fast and to look out for in the future.</p>
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<p id="rM2WOw">There should be adequate depth here but it’s dominated by transfers and late additions so we’ll have to wait for Fall camp to see how it shakes out. On the podcast, we discussed possible roster management issues with what message taking all these transfers sends to Davis and Simon.</p>
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<p id="lvKw2Q">USC is losing all five starters from last year’s secondary: Greg Johnson, Isaiah Pola-Mao, Chris Steele, Isaac Taylor-Stuart, and Chase Williams. They’re also losing two experienced backups, Dorian Hewett and Jayden Williams. They represented about two-thirds of USC’s tackles last year and had been around for years.</p>
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<p id="3y1Guy">The safeties look like they’ll handle the departures pretty smoothly. Established backups #29 DB Alford and #27 DB Bullock (who combined for about a quarter of all secondary tackles last year) should slide right in to be the new starters at boundary and free safety, respectively, with #28 DB Gordon and #15 DB Beavers behind them. #4 DB Max Williams and #19 DB Smith look set at nickel based on the Spring game. All six of those guys are low 4-stars from the last couple cycles. They also have a couple deep backups in #17 DB Croom, a former unrated FCS player who was with the twos and threes in the Spring game, and #25 DB Allen who was a borderline 4-star in 2019 but I haven’t seen yet.</p>
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<p id="mpb58u">There are three additions to the room. One is an Oklahoma transfer (the only one on defense), #21 DB McCutchin who was switching back and forth between safety and corner in sporadic play both for the Sooners last year and during the Trojans’ Spring game. Another is the Ohio St transfer Bryson Shaw who’ll join in the Fall; I’ve had to do a lot of film study on him and I very much doubt he’ll beat out the 4-stars here. The last addition is the 2022 high 4-star Zion Branch, he didn’t enroll soon enough to play in the Spring game and I suspect he’ll redshirt given all the established players ahead of him but he looks very talented.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Colorado at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/VTedX-qhec-gPAUtWjO-ktmTFEk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23652690/usa_today_17059362.jpg">
<cite>Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="vODSrX">The corners, on the other hand, seem a lot more fluid. In the Spring game, the pair of 2021 4-stars, #16 CB P. Brown and #22 CB Wright, played throughout with the ones. They got very limited play last year so I don’t have great eyes on them, but they were highly coveted out of high school. I also saw #13 CB Otey playing with the twos and threes, he didn’t play at all last year and was a mid 3-star. The fourth returner is #23 CB Jos. Jackson, a high 3-star converted WR who played a little last year but wasn’t playing in the Spring game.</p>
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<p id="l0NRrZ">The interesting thing for the CB room is how many transfers they’ve taken. They got redshirt senior #6 CB Blackmon from Colorado, who was held out of the Spring game with some minor injuries. There were several reports over the last few months that Blackmon had the Trojans very excited; to be honest I viewed them skeptically because I thought the low 3-star was playing at his talent ceiling in Boulder and I would be surprised if he were outplaying the bluechips. They’ve also taken #12 CB Covington from Washington, he was a 4-star who didn’t play much (and I think got chased out of Seattle by some walk-ons), and an unrated FCS transfer #40 CB Simpson. I think McCutchin is built like a boundary safety but he’s more likely to find time with the corners due to the fluidity here and some experience last year when Oklahoma switched around their DBs’ positions multiple times midseason.</p>
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<p id="P7IbzI">There are also two talented 2022 recruits, 5-star Domani Jackson and low 4-star Fabian Ross. Alicia said that the way this sets up might lend itself to playing the more experienced but lower ceiling guys like Blackmon early in the season but then transitioning to the far more talented freshmen later in the season. It should be an interesting Fall camp position to watch and also quite a roster management question for the future. As we discussed on the podcast, retaining CB coach Williams after luring him away from Oregon and letting him run the team for most of last year should pay dividends - he was the only coach from the previous staff Riley kept on.</p>
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<h3 id="Otzu5J"> Accountability Corner</h3>
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<p id="O9Fhr6">In <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/7/12/22571704/duck-dive-usc-football-2021-preview">last year’s preview of USC</a>, I discussed Slovis’ slide in passing since his true freshman debut in 2019 and it continued with an even lower NCAA passer rating than 2020. I also predicted that Dart rather than Moss would be the primary backup and he was. I thought Ingram would win the starting job in the running back rotation right away after transferring from Texas and he did, and that they’d use a rotation with longtime starter Malepeai and TCU transfer Barlow, which also happened, though I also thought they’d spread the carries around more to the other two backs in the room and that didn’t happen. Since I was basing that prediction on Harrell’s past pattern and he was fired after two games I’m not going to lose sleep over it. The personnel they deployed at tight end and wide receiver went exactly as I predicted, with the exception of playing London at X instead of Y, (though even that I listed as a possibility that I thought would be suboptimal and linked to a podcast discussion about why). USC fans seem more sanguine about their offensive line performance than I was, repeatedly describing it as “fine” because they didn’t allow as many sacks as they did in 2019 and 2020. It must have just been a coincidence that they didn’t play Oregon in 2021.</p>
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<p id="ztfbFS">I spent a lot of time discussing how former DC Orlando might make alterations to the scheme to accommodate how his d-line and OLB personnel didn’t really fit his preferred Tite front and wouldn’t make best use of Drake Jackson and Korey Foreman; all of that turned out to be moot since the team essentially quit two games in and they collapsed to the 108<sup>th</sup> ranked defense in F+. Re-reading that long opening and defensive front section is actually kind of painful at this point, it was so much wasted effort. Perhaps I learned something about how USC fans feel. I got the ILB starters and backups correct, though that was fairly straightforward. The secondary starters were easy since they returned everybody, but I really nailed the backup rotation which was a challenge because their room was so loaded with young talent from the only quality recruiter on staff.</p>
<div id="uJrrK4"><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 75%;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KmhP0dUcWEs?rel=0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" allow="accelerometer; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture;"></iframe></div></div>
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/28/23183004/duck-dive-usc-football-2022-previewhythloday12022-06-23T07:01:00-07:002022-06-23T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: Washington State Football 2022 Preview
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<img alt="Washington State v Oregon" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IDB1iJWWhatEqyLGB08cj1GqVtg=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/71007491/1353169517.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Going deep with the Cougars’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns</p> <p id="8WJWel">Special thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/podvseveryone">Jeff Nusser</a> of <a href="https://cougcenter.com/">CougCenter</a> for speaking with me on the Quack 12 Podcast during our deep dive into the Washington State roster. <a href="https://quack12podcast.com/quack-12/2022/6/23/washington-state-roster-review-with-jeff-nusser-2022"><strong>LISTEN HERE</strong></a></p>
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<h1 id="lHGlEB">Offense</h1>
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<p id="xw2I4o">When former Washington St head coach Nick Rolovich was fired — along with four other position coaches — in the middle of last season, then-DC Dickert was promoted to interim head coach, and at the end of the season he got the full-time job. Interestingly, he then let go almost everyone else remaining on the staff, including the former OC/RB coach and WR coach. The replacement coaches at OC, WR, and OL for 2022 all have connections to former Wazzu head coach Mike Leach’s time at Texas Tech, and by all indications the Cougars are returning to an Air Raid offense.</p>
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<p id="q4ggbe">New OC Morris started as an inside receivers coach under Leach at Wazzu for a year in 2012, then was an OC/WR coach for the next five years under Kliff Kingsbury at Texas Tech. In 2018 Morris was hired as the head coach at the University of the Incarnate Word, an FCS program in San Antonio where he’s spent the last four seasons.</p>
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<p id="YfUBRK">Like every coach who comes off of Leach’s tree, Morris has made several changes to the Air Raid. I’d characterize it as marrying a spread option offense to the system, with both tight end use and designed runs (as opposed to opportunistic ones the QB would check into based on the defense pre-snap), and a read-option and RPO game coming off those run plays. There are also some minor modifications to the route tree, but otherwise the pocket passing game looks basically identical to Leach’s with a very simple progression and quick short throws.</p>
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<p id="MjXNgI">I think the Cougs will have the quarterback and wide receivers they need to make it a very dangerous passing attack right away. But the running theme of our podcast with Jeff is that we don’t know how much Wazzu is going to lean into that formidable passing game, since we don’t know how Dickert will strategize as a head coach. It may be that Dickert wants to use heavily use tight ends and establish a run game — defensive-minded head coaches often do, and the film after he took over in 2021 lends some credence to that idea — and to me it doesn’t look like the rest of the units in the offense are ready to do that.</p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Washington State at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/h00Aoc0jx8uUwuCRgeXAR1Lg_sM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23645730/usa_today_17259503.jpg">
<cite>Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="aM6dsi">Morris’ starting quarterback for the last two seasons at UIW has transferred to Wazzu, #1 QB C. Ward. He won the Jerry Rice Award in the Spring 2021 season and posted over 4,600 passing yards with an impressive 154.2 NCAA passer rating in the Fall 2021 season. From film study I can say he processes the field rapidly and knows this offensive system well, and although I think his throwing motion is pretty unusual and I have some doubts about deep downfield accuracy, in this system that’s not particularly relevant and his very quick release is probably an asset. He’s almost certainly got the starting job locked down and it will likely be his as long as he’s available.</p>
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<p id="9J9vUO">The backup situation is fairly dire, however. All four QBs who played last season have now left the program – Jayden de Laura, Cammon Cooper, Jarrett Guarantano, and even walk-on Victor Gabalis. There’s only one other scholarship quarterback on campus, mid 3-star redshirt freshman #16 QB X. Ward (no relation); he didn’t get any playing time last year and I didn’t think he looked ready to take over in the Spring game. A low 3-star 2022 recruit, John Mateer, doesn’t arrive until the Fall and it’s unlikely he’d be ready either. The rest of the room are all walk-on freshmen who’ve never played: returning redshirts #98 QB Holcomb and #13 QB Irvin, and early enrollee #18 QB E. Brown. As Jeff said on the podcast, the Air Raid usually takes quarterbacks a couple years to get comfortable in – that’s the transfer’s greatest asset, but a big liability for the rest of the room.</p>
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<p id="Lpq6Vq">Wazzu is losing both of its primary running backs from the last several years, Max Borghi and Deon McIntosh, who combined for 271 carries and 30 receptions at 5.6 yards per touch in 2021. I think those are pretty big losses and will end up significantly curtailing the Cougs’ rushing attack and schematic options that require the run as a threat.</p>
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<p id="YqKD4D">The only returner with any experience is #25 RB Watson, a former high 3-star who’d previously transferred from Wisconsin but Jeff and I both think hasn’t been effective at all for Wazzu – just 3.2 yards per carry and zero passing targets. The other scholarship returner, mid 3-star #5 RB Bazil, hasn’t recorded a stat in three seasons in Pullman. Wazzu recruited a couple mid 3-stars in the 2022 cycle; Jeff said it’s likely that early enrollee #23 RB Schlenbaker will jump ahead of the returners and become the starter right away, and I’d add that I wouldn’t be surprised if Fall enrollee Jaylen Jenkins gets the second spot. The rest of the room is four walk-on redshirt freshmen who’ve never played.</p>
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<p id="jQ2wap">There’s a possibility that Schlenbaker works out and is ready to play well right away, but I wouldn’t bet on it. I think it’s almost certain that this unit will take a major step back in 2022, with dispositive structural implications for the Morris’ offense.</p>
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<p id="pEsZxO">By the same token I have a hard time seeing the new TE position contributing much to the offense in 2022. No one in the room has played a single snap as a college tight end and the only scholarship returner, #94 TE Ashby, spent the last two seasons as a fourth-string defensive end. The other two returners are sophomore walk-ons #42 TE Bowen and #24 TE Mathers. I saw Mathers taking some reps as a blocking H-back in the Spring game and I think that’s probably the most we’ll see of this unit in live games.</p>
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<p id="RWoZ0f">There are three additions to the room, the most significant of which is high 3-star true freshman #87 TE Dollar. I watched him carefully in the Spring game because I think he’s the future of the position at Wazzu, but right now I don’t think he’s ready to be a serious blocker and I don’t see much value in going to 11-personnel instead of the Air Raid’s preferred four-wide. There are two unrated transfers here and I believe both are walk-ons: #42 TE Riviere from the FCS and #82 TE T. Ward from Nevada. The former didn’t record a stat in eight games last year and the latter I think just followed his father when he was hired from Reno to be the new DC; I don’t think either are real live-game options.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Washington State at Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mM7RDQB5djIz7knrxd0yrztUTW8=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23645732/usa_today_17162122.jpg">
<cite>Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="X6ZRpI">The wide receivers lose about two-thirds of their production from 2021 - the top two targets, Travell Harris and Calvin Jackson, combined for over 1,800 yards and have both signed UDFA contracts, plus backup Joey Hobert who had almost 200 yards has transferred out.</p>
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<p id="wZsWk1">However, I think the receivers are still in pretty good shape and are by far the most reliable-looking skill group. They return both the starting outside receivers in #88 WR Stribling and #6 WR Ollie, who were the third- and fourth-leading targets, plus backup inside receiver #85 WR Victor who came in fifth and Jeff thinks is poised to blow up in 2022. We didn’t get to see them in Spring, but the Cougs have also taken two established receivers out of the portal – UIW’s Robert Ferrel on the inside who caught 74 passes from Ward last season, and Zeriah Beason who was Oregon St’s third-leading receiver on the outside. I think those five are a very solid WR corps who should be the strength of the offense.</p>
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<p id="JuNNbw">There are a few other wild cards here as well. Sixth-year inside man #9 WR Bell missed last season with an injury and was still being held out in the Spring game; he’s been impressive in the past but Jeff says we have no word at all on his status. On the outside, #35 WR Moore was a high 3-star in 2018 when he enrolled at Oklahoma St, but produced virtually nothing there or at Wazzu, with a Juco stint in between. Unrated Div-II transfer #86 WR Owen was getting a lot of play on the inside during the Spring game, along with three other walk-ons. That’s notable because those guys were playing ahead of four scholarship returners who had few to no reps last year - #84 WR Meredith, #89 WR Nunnally, #81 WR Peters, and #15 WR Quinn.</p>
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<p id="7cQ5ON">I read that situation as having a pretty reliable starting group with adequate depth for a good rotation if everybody stays healthy, but they might be in real trouble if they take a couple injuries because the guys behind them look untested and questionable.</p>
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<p id="HvQWDo">The offensive line loses both of its longtime tackles, Liam Ryan and Abraham Lucas. Last year Wazzu was splitting time at both center and right guard, those positions lose one guy each in Brian Greene and Cade Beresford, respectively. Both graded out higher on my tally sheet than their returning counterparts, #77 C Gomness and #75 OL Fifita.</p>
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<p id="v2NzCL">Several linemen were out during the Cougs’ improvised bowl game against Central Michigan, so we saw them trying out several backups in new positions as something of a preview of 2022. Based on that and the Spring game, it appears they’re going to move the guards out to tackle: #52 LT Kingston was the left guard all of last season, and Fifita will be moving from rotational right guard to starting right tackle.</p>
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<p id="9f2ZCp">While I don’t think Gomness is a dominant player, he almost certainly has the starting center job locked down and I don’t have particular concerns there. But Jeff and I are both very skeptical of Kingston and Fifita playing out of position. Their performance in the bowl game was painful to watch and contributed to five allowed sacks by CMU, and I didn’t think they looked much improved in the Spring game. I think a couple of low 3-stars will be the new starting guards based on the Spring game - #57 LG Tialevea who I don’t believe I’ve seen play before, and #61 RG Hilborn who had some reps in the bowl game and had a pretty tough go of it.</p>
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<p id="0qsCaE">It seems that starting five is locked in, for better or worse, but the backup situation looks both fluid and unencouraging to me, and that’s compounded by the fact that they apparently have no better options at starting tackle than to move guards out. There are only three other returning scholarship linemen, which is a shockingly small number and bordering on unsafe, and two of those in #79 OL Fa’amoe and #70 OL Kylany weren’t playing in the Spring game. The third was snapping the ball with the twos, low 3-star redshirt freshman #65 C Dieu. The other four on the number two o-line in Spring were all walk-ons: #56 LT J. Wilson, #76 LG Waverly, #53 RG Tafia, and #60 RT McCarthy.</p>
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<p id="94zr5R">I thought that group was getting torn to shreds by Wazzu’s number two defense. Jeff thinks the closest thing to a playable backup will be unrated FCS transfer Grant Stephens, but he wasn’t on campus for Spring for me to watch. They’ve taken six true freshmen in 2022, all low-to-mid 3-stars and enrolling in the Fall; I doubt any will play in 2022. There were five transfers out of the o-line room, all older scholarship guys who probably would have been better backup options than the ones they now have.</p>
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<p id="vCiIXD">I don’t think the Cougs can afford a single injury to a starting lineman, and I’m not wild about the starters in the first place. This is another reason that I think Morris’ offense will be structurally constrained – I don’t think they’ll have the blocking to protect Ward for a lengthy progression and I doubt they’ll be able to open many holes in the run game. I suspect that a rational evaluation of their talent in the Fall would conclude that the only viable offense the Cougs could present – and it could be a pretty good one – is a very quick passing Air Raid without any of the additional elements the staff might like to include if they had a different roster. It remains to be seen if they’ll make the same assessment.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Stanford at Washington State" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/1hchHwknlasGu-p2DVtURPbb81U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23645747/usa_today_16979319.jpg">
<cite>James Snook-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<h1 id="L8Ox12">Defense</h1>
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<p id="G1p3qb">When Dickert was hired in 2020 as the defensive coordinator, he brought with him his 4-2-5 scheme from Wyoming, which was an appreciable schematic change from the 3-down fronts Wazzu had run for several years prior. The install went fairly smoothly in terms of converting personnel over and they’ve stuck with it ever since, and I expect that’ll continue in 2022.</p>
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<p id="SZSXzT">The previous two seasons the Cougs’ defense had been at the bottom of FBS, ranking 100<sup>th</sup> in 2019 and 115<sup>th</sup> in 2020 in F+ advanced statistics. But in 2021 their ranking jumped 72 spots to 43<sup>rd</sup> – still in the lower end of the Power-5, but a huge leap nonetheless.</p>
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<p id="aXgKvK">That improvement doesn’t show up on my tally sheet, however, with the Cougs coming in for almost exactly the same fairly poor per-play efficiency and explosive play defense figures compared to my charts in the last several seasons. They didn’t transform their talent base at all, and all traditional metrics of defensive success like total yards allowed remained stuck in the bottom half of FBS.</p>
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<p id="titxVB">In my opinion, the most likely explanation is that Wazzu benefited from opposing offenses fumbling the ball at an extraordinary rate – the 27 opponent fumbles over the season ranked 1<sup>st</sup> in FBS, with the median number being 14, so the Cougs saw almost twice the average number of balls on the ground. For context, the consensus top defense in FBS saw only 15 fumbles all season … that was Georgia, which played two more games.</p>
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<p id="qE3zH5">I highly doubt Wazzu has access to a unique fumble-forcing technique that even elite defenses don’t. Every defensive coach believes they can train their team to recover more fumbles but you won’t find a single member of the advanced stats community who agrees – it’s essentially random, and teams who have a good turnover year almost always fall back to earth the next season. My expectation is that 2021’s performance was just dumb luck and Wazzu’s defensive metrics will return to what their talent level predicts in 2022 (the same thing happened after 2017’s eyebrow-raising 23<sup>rd</sup> ranking in F+, when the Cougs were a top-25 team in both fumbles and interceptions – they fell off immediately and stayed down over the following three years as they got a normal number of turnovers).</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Colorado at Washington State" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/FbnX4y5_Q4XTAGAx3rEhNQqp3Vo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23645766/usa_today_13542413.jpg">
<cite>James Snook-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="Xe7ShZ">The defensive line splits its tackles and ends into two distinct units with separate coaches (in fact DE coach Cooper is the only other survivor besides Dickert from last year’s staff). Typical of four-down fronts, each of those units needs a four-man rotation to stay fresh throughout the game, and I think Wazzu will have that in 2022 as long as everyone stays healthy.</p>
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<p id="Ay3UH0">I think the ends are the strongest part of the defense, with returning starters #80 DE B. Jackson and #10 DE Stone. Both are redshirt juniors from the 2018 class and took over in 2020 with the scheme change, and I’ve been impressed with them for the last two years as far more effective getting around the edge than their mid 3-star talent ratings imply. They do tend to get stopped pretty handily by top-level offensive tackles, but in the Pac-12 the Cougs face very few of those. The rotational guys will probably be returners #95 DE Edson and #20 DE Roff, who got substantial reps last year.</p>
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<p id="HiHLeE">This unit loses Willie Taylor to the portal, a longtime lineman for Wazzu who doesn’t really fit the new scheme, though he did get quite a few reps last year, plus two other guys who didn’t play at all. The biggest issue with the ends is that they don’t appear to have any experienced depth beyond the first four guys – there are three redshirt freshmen returners who didn’t play and were passed up by the walk-on Roff, a 2022 recruit who doesn’t arrive until the Fall, and nobody else in the room. I have no idea who’ll play if any of the top four are unavailable, and I think that would constitute a significant production loss.</p>
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<p id="E94SkT">Almost exactly the same thing can be said about the tackles – returning the four rotational guys from last year, losing a longtime linemen who’d been largely sidelined by the scheme change (Dallas Hobbs), but zero experience for the young returners behind them, so they should be solid if everyone is healthy but in trouble if someone gets hurt.</p>
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<p id="vyM6k4">The returners are #54 DT Crowder, #93 DT Mejia, #48 DT Mujahid, and #96 DT Pule. All are upperclassmen who’ve been around for several seasons. They’re a bit undersized as usual in Pullman and they don’t really get the penetration one hopes for from tackles in a four-down front so I tend to think they’ll give up a lot up the middle, but experienced linemen around 280 lbs is about the best Wazzu is likely to do at the position.</p>
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<p id="lCLKYP">The four other returners didn’t see the field last year, and the transfer in from Virginia #15 DT Malani barely did. Again, I have a pretty hard time picking out who’d fill in if there were an injury to one of the top four and I would think the falloff would be noticeable.</p>
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<p id="nxTGQa">The linebackers lose all three of the grad students who’ve been mainstays at Wazzu since 2016 – Jahad Woods, Justus Rogers, and Dillon Sherman. Woods and Rogers combined for 183 tackles last year while Sherman was sidelined with injury.</p>
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<p id="ImlbMr">The staff found some rotational reps for the backups last year, more so than had been true in previous seasons, but I still think the replacements here are largely unproven. The most went to #82 LB T. Brown, a high 3-star from the 2019 class who hasn’t shown me much to live up to that rating in his last three seasons. The next most reps went to #51 LB Mauigoa and #52 LB Thornton, with the former looking a big better on my tally sheet than the latter. There are five other returners in the room but virtually no reps for any of them last year and only two are on scholarship.</p>
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<p id="CIKXxV">I expect that #1 LB Henley will win a starting job here, he transferred from Nevada where he was the top tackler in new DC Ward’s defense. I watched some of his film and think he’s a pretty savvy veteran but an awful lot of his tackles were giving up extra yards, and that he was a 2-star in the 2017 class for a reason. After talking this through with Jeff I think the second spot will probably go to Brown unless Mauigoa or Thornton really step it up in Fall camp. Once again, I think they’ll have a serviceable four-man rotation for the two linebacker spots, but if there’s an injury I don’t know who’ll fill in. Even though I was never really wild about Woods or Rogers over the years, all told I think this unit is facing a step back for their losses.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Washington State v Utah" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6nyNNTzZS6xwSYasg9x6FogEKEY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23645801/1230216443.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="c5jS6J">The secondary appears to be, as is perpetually the case at Wazzu, a work in progress. The overall talent here is the lowest on the team and every year there’s something of a scramble to identify the playable guys through a raft of departures, additions, and transfers in and out. There are so many rotations in a typical year in Pullman that it’s difficult to even identify starters, but I think the four most significant departures are the guys who ran out of eligibility – George Hicks, Tyrone Hill, Daniel Isom, and Jaylen Watson. Those four combined for 172 tackles last year, more than half of all tackles by the secondary in 2021.</p>
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<p id="ewLDr6">The two most significant returners are former Juco #5 CB Langford and nickelback #8 DB Marsh, and Jeff and I think those two have their starting jobs locked down. I think a couple of new faces will get the two starting safety jobs based on their performances in the Spring game – unrated Nevada transfer #13 DB Lee to the boundary and low 3-star Juco #37 DB Lockett to the field.</p>
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<p id="uz7zd0">I think that the most likely scenario for the other starting safety spot is a Fall camp battle between returning backup #6 CB Smith-Wade, who Jeff says gets a lot of praise from the staff but was held out of the Spring game, and Utah St transfer Cam Lampkin who was a frequent backup in Logan (sixth most tackles among the secondary) and arrives in the Fall.</p>
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<p id="m1VN6R">Picking out the backups is a challenge. Old Dominion transfer #23 DB Ford-Dement got the next most reps last year but that was only in a couple games, and nobody else has any real experience. I saw a bit of walk-on #32 DB Moku and Michigan St transfer #2 CB C. Jackson (whom Jeff says was a bit at sea last year). They’ve taken a transfer from UW earlier this month, Kasen Kinchen, who was a mid 3-star in the 2020 class and elected to walk on in Seattle before that program imploded; he never got any reps. Wazzu has taken five DB recruits in the 2022 class but none enrolled early.</p>
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<p id="BlE6fK">I think the reason that this unit is almost entirely comprised of transfers, Jucos, and walk-ons — and virtually no experience going to seven other returning scholarship DBs — is simply that the Cougs recruit this position so poorly that they just can’t bank on more than one prep athlete per year turning out to be playable. It looks like this situation will continue in 2022, and just like the rest of the defense I think they’ll cobble together an okay group of starters but will be in serious trouble if there are any unavailabilities.</p>
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<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="2YJfrC">
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<h3 id="zurvtz">Accountability Corner</h3>
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<p id="cKbNYA">In <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/5/31/22457369/duck-dive-washington-state-football-2021-preview">last year’s preview</a>, I predicted that despite a crowded QB room and some dissatisfaction with 2020 starter Jayden de Laura he’d win the job, and that’s what eventually happened. I only get partial credit on the WR room however – I did correctly predict Harris and Ollie would be top targets, and accurately pointed out that the room was so big they’d have no trouble filling in the rest of the starters and depth guys, but whiffed on the prediction that Moore would be a big target and didn’t see Jackson coming at all (he went from 12 yards in 2020 to 987 yards in 2021). The running back room was described perfectly accurately, including some skepticism about Watson’s transfer from Wisconsin. I got the starting offensive line exactly correct and the sixth man Fifita as well, but didn’t get the seventh man in Gomness. Most of my OL write-up was spent predicting the coming crunch with too small a room and no experience for the backups, which I believe we’re seeing now.</p>
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<p id="7uI0L2">I think I described the defensive ends pretty well and got the prediction right that the new guys in the changed scheme would be the strongest part of the team, and I got one of the backups at end right too (degree of difficulty points: he was a walk-on who beat out scholarship guys). I got two of the four guys in the tackle rotation correct, but missed on the other two. I speculated that the room was big enough that there might be some fluidity, but should have named the guys who might have won rotational jobs and failed to do so. I got the linebacker starters right, no challenge there, but I also speculated that the backups would get more reps than they have in the past because the staff knew they were losing those grad students at the end of the year and that’s just what happened. I correctly predicted the wide rotation in the secondary and that it would be a mess.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA FOOTBALL: OCT 01 Oregon at Washington State" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/hXgI38035B0vZlXX4tZ-Bn4b3QM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23645821/612311030.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Steve Conner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
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https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/23/23179447/duck-dive-washington-state-football-2022-previewhythloday12022-06-14T07:01:00-07:002022-06-14T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: Utah Football 2022 Preview
<figure>
<img alt="Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One Venture X - Ohio State v Utah" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/C3rLxEyuJRme5lbFN41TjjOjttU=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70974551/1362286900.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Going deep with the Utes’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns</p> <p id="6tkBMr">Special thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/bananamorphs">Greg West</a> of <a href="https://twitter.com/notruckstopspod">No Truck Stops</a> for joining me on the Quack 12 Podcast to discuss Utah’s roster. <a href="https://quack12podcast.com/quack-12/2022/6/14/utah-roster-review-with-greg-of-no-truck-stops"><strong>LISTEN HERE</strong></a> </p>
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<h1 id="ZSoTk4">Offense</h1>
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<p id="VkvFqV">After an early injury derailed his 2020 season, then being held out of the first few games of 2021, #7 QB Rising played the rest of the season until the final drive of the Rose Bowl. He’s unquestionably the starter at this point, and it’s remarkable how much more effective the offense is with him in compared to other quarterbacks over the past two seasons.</p>
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<p id="A7aHHI">If Rising is unavailable, it’s difficult to identify the primary backup. Ostensibly it would be #3 QB Jackson, a high 4-star in the 2020 class who spent a year at Texas before transferring last offseason to Utah. But when 24/7 re-evaluated his rating as a transfer it was the <a href="https://i.imgur.com/9JxNwar.png">biggest single drop</a> I’ve ever seen down to a low 3-star, and he’s now been passed up several times including twice at Utah when Rising was injured – at the beginning of last year when Baylor transfer Charlie Brewer started, and at the end of the Rose Bowl when Utah went with walk-on #16 QB Barnes.</p>
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<p id="eJnj3G">The other options include Nate Johnson, a 4-star 2022 recruit who arrives in the Fall, mid 3-star true freshman #8 QB Rose, and the unrated Juco addition #18 QB Bottari. Brewer and former 4-star Peter Costelli have transferred out, and low 3-star Cooper Justice is no longer on the roster. Johnson may well be the quarterback of the future for Utah, but expecting him to play this season as a true freshman who didn’t take in Spring practices is a tall order. Greg was blunt on the podcast in saying that if Rising goes down then Utah goes down with him, and he has no faith that any other QB in the room can run the offense at all.</p>
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<p id="MgEHQd">Even though most observers, Greg included, don’t think Utah’s offense runs through its wide receivers, the eight departures here create significant ripple effects throughout the squad so we need to start with this unit. In particular Britain Covey, and to a lesser extent Theo Howard, were extremely versatile and played multiple roles in the offense out of the slot and in running sweeps and other gadget plays, so their losses are tough ones in terms of generating 3<sup>rd</sup> down conversions. The Utes are also switching a high 3-star 2020 recruit out of the wide receiver unit, #81 DE O’Toole – I thought he was big enough that he might have converted to a TE, but instead he’s headed to the defense. There are five additional departures from the WR unit, none of whom caught a pass last year, though Ryan Peppins leaving as a 2022 recruit before he ever got to campus was unusual.</p>
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<p id="clnsIz">Greg doesn’t expect much production out of the returning receivers now that the Swiss-army-knife guys are no longer in the room, and I agree. There are only four scholarship returners in the room: #21 WR Enis, #25 WR Dixon, #10 WR Parks, and #11 WR Cope. Last year those four posted fewer receiving yards <em>combined</em> than did returning walk-on #17 WR Vele, who I think will be the top outside receiver in 2022. I think that’s a referendum on both the quality of this unit and how desultory it is in Ludwig’s offense, especially considering that Vele is younger than both Enis and Dixon.</p>
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<p id="oze87p">They’ve also taken three mid 3-star recruits in the 2022 cycle — Tao Johnson, Sidney Mbanasor, and Chris Reed – but none will arrive until Fall and Greg doesn’t expect any will play. I agree and think the walk-on #85 WR Kudo, who was playing a lot in the Spring game, would be ahead of them.</p>
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<img alt="NCAA Football: Utah at Southern California" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/T04r0QV_Ud3-LDwPVKbdSQi2068=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23625644/usa_today_16965452.jpg">
<cite>Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
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<p id="2WUErF">In the running back unit Utah had a three-headed monster last year, with returners #9 RB Thomas getting over 1,000 yards and #2 RB Bernard over 500. The third back, TJ Pledger got about 700, and he’s since graduated. In my opinion, the ability to rotate between three guys was an important step for the Utes, since they’d been reliant on a single heavy-duty back in previous championship pushes and I think they ran into some fatigue and predictability issues.</p>
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<p id="q4P9id">There only look like two serious options to replace Pledger if Utah wants to keep a three-back rotation, and both are totally untested low 4-star freshmen: #6 RB Parks redshirted last year and #1 RB Glover was an early enrollee this cycle. I still haven’t seen much of Parks but Glover looked like a pretty promising thumper in the Spring game (though it was a pretty relaxed affair). We’ll have to wait for Fall camp to see if either are ready to play, and it’s tough to see them fully filling Pledger’s shoes immediately since he had played in 30 games at Oklahoma before transferring to Utah last season.</p>
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<p id="YCRULN">There’s only one other scholarship back in the room, #24 RB Curry who’d previously transferred from LSU, but his numbers are fairly poor and Greg was pretty negative about him ever really joining the rotation on the podcast. This being Utah, there are also seven walk-ons in the room, but we haven’t seen any of them yet and I doubt we will unless something dire happens.</p>
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<p id="dTVqKn">The complicating factor is that Greg tells us Bernard has been practicing with the wide receivers and he’s expected to move over to the slot to try and replace Covey’s production as a possession receiver and on gadget plays. I still think he’ll get some carries but this situation is likely to be fluid as they test out how ready Parks and/or Glover are to play. The rosiest scenario for Utah is that they get a comparably productive three-back rotation from Thomas, Parks, and Glover, with Bernard fully taking on slot receiver duties. But other than Thomas everything else is an unknown here, and if one or two of those guys don’t work out right away they might have to scale back their plans simply for lack of talented, experienced bodies.</p>
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<p id="qJ6NBO">There are several parallels with the tight end unit compared to the running back room. The first is that Greg and I both believe getting a third tight end – last year’s FCS transfer #86 TE Kincaid — was really essential to Utah’s offensive taking a step forward, as longtime observers of OC Ludwig know that he really wants to field three receiving tight ends and struggles when he doesn’t have them. The second parallel is that they’re losing one of the experienced and productive guys in the unit, Cole Fotheringham, and the options to replace him are totally unproven. And third, they’ve moved one of the returning starters, #80 TE Kuithe, to practice with the wide receivers in a plan to split him out much more often and replace Covey’s role, including sweeps.</p>
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<p id="ejJTdQ">Those moves make it difficult to predict how, or even if, they’ll reproduce last year’s production at the unit through which much of the offense ran. Greg says he doesn’t expect Kuithe to be blocking much at all, and that alters both the rush and pass offense significantly. It was already the case Fotheringham’s replacement would have big shoes to fill in terms of being a great blocker and a real receiving threat, and if Kuithe is going to get split out then that’s an even bigger issue.</p>
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<p id="gRWisd">There are several prospects for the new guy and Greg tells us he’s not worried about one emerging, but it’s impossible to make a prediction who that’ll be right now. The only one who’s played in college is low 3-star former Juco #87 TE Yassmin, but I didn’t see him at all last year and apparently he got only two touches in garbage time. There are also a couple of Power-5 transfers, low 3-star #88 TE Morris from Syracuse and mid 3-star #4 TE McClain from USC, but neither have played in the combined five years they’ve been in college football. Rounding out the room are #35 TE Vaha, a mid 3-star redshirt freshman who sat out last year with a broken leg, mid 3-star #84 TE Ta. Pututau who hasn’t played in two years, and walk-on redshirt freshman #46 TE Erickson who was playing early in the Spring game. They’ve also taken an FCS transfer, Logan Kendall, but I believe he’s a fullback and not really in the mix for this spot.</p>
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<p id="aqyrIW">Greg may be right to have faith that Utah will figure out their tight end situation (Kincaid, after all, was an unrated FCS player and now looks like a real NFL prospect), but given how green the options are here and the added stress of Kuithe splitting out, it’s a tough problem to solve. There’s a scenario where, after catching lightning in a bottle with three great TEs at once last year, Ludwig reverts to an OC that a lot of Utah fans wanted to see fired (as did Oregon, Cal, Wisconsin, and Vanderbilt fans).</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Weber State at Utah" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/JUOXtPpJkAv8VyI6VXJ-2Y9kp2A=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23625646/usa_today_16674368.jpg">
<cite>Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="nUiE67">Utah’s offensive line finally had a breakthrough last year, their best performance since 2016 (with the intervening years being somewhat disappointing; on the podcast Greg discussed fan frustration with OL coach Harding). I think this was the biggest single reason the Utes took a step forward in 2021.</p>
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<p id="mItLui">The returning starters are #51 LG Bills, #78 RG Laumea, and #71 RT Daniels. The guards are both pretty solid (I like Laumea more than Bills, Greg has it the other way around), but Daniels is a puzzle to me. In previous seasons as a guard he graded out very poorly when I charted his games and I’d pretty much written him off, so when he switched to tackle I thought it was an impending disaster. But he had a lot fewer breakdowns on my tally sheet last year, and Greg was insistent that Daniels’ transformation was the single most essential part of the line’s improvement. I’m still not entirely sold on Daniels as a great tackle – I think he just went from bad to average – but the results speak for themselves and having a third solid returning starter is good news for the Utes.</p>
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<p id="aT4ef6">The line loses the center Nick Ford and the left tackle Bamidele Olaseni. Those are the two most important positions generally, and in my opinion those two were crucial to this unit’s improvement – Ford’s versatility to play any position was vital because they didn’t have any other snapping options when 2019 center Orlando Umana left, and Olaseni has the ideal body for a tackle but his debut in 2019 was very poor so it was a great surprise that he really put it together last year.</p>
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<p id="1tIDfx">I think the guard positions will continue to be solid because behind Bills and Laumea are a couple of backups who got significant reps in the past and looked decent - #53 OG Maea and #62 OG Mokofisi. But I think replacing the departures at center and tackle is going to be an adventure. Greg thinks the only candidate for center is #54 C Maile since he hasn’t heard anybody else mentioned as serious options. Maile played quite a few backup reps last year and sailed a whole lot of snaps over Rising’s head so I was shocked when Greg said he’ll probably be the new guy – I didn’t get to see Maile in the Spring game but the freshmen they had snapping clearly weren’t ready to play. The new tackle (either on the left, or if Daniels moves to the left then replacing him at right) will probably be #68 OT Kump – he played as a true freshman in 2020 when Harding had to switch out the line several times for covid reasons, but Kump has struggled with injuries his entire career and I’m not sure what his development has been like. He was also held out of the Spring game as far as I can tell.</p>
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<p id="dNhdoF">The line had three guys transfer out who I think could have really helped this depth situation - Luke Felix-Fualalo, Simi Moala, and Marist Talavou, all of whom would have been going into their fourth or fifth year in the system had they stayed. As it is, they’re replacing two important starters with guys I have real questions about, and the experienced depth behind them at those positions is non-existent. The centers and tackles I saw in the Spring game were all freshmen and sophomores with no game reps and they were getting torn up by even the second-string defense. As Greg put it on the podcast: “Offensive line is my biggest worry going into the year … and I have no idea what to think of the guys behind them so if an injury happens, I’m not optimistic.”</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Rose Bowl-Utah at Ohio State" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/5LOko13zFJTBmLZanJUSm6r0zOE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23625649/usa_today_17453084.jpg">
<cite>Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="TXYkpr">
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<h1 id="wf3Y3Z">Defense</h1>
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<p id="9YL6qW">Utah employs a true 4-down linemen defense, one of the few in the Pac-12. It’s worth discussing the tackles and ends separately, since those units are coached separately and the personnel look to be in different shape for 2022.</p>
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<p id="BkUmii">The tackles lost two guys to graduation: one of the primary guys in the rotation, Hauti Pututau, and longtime backup Viane Moala who had a season-ending injury. They return the leading tackler of the unit in #58 DT Tafuna, plus three more who were in regular rotation with #90 DT Kaufusi, #95 DT Vimahi, and #99 DT T. Pututau (Hauti’s brother).</p>
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<p id="kS5rZY">With the exception of Kaufusi who’s a couple years older and had earlier transferred in from BYU, the experienced returners came in with the 2020 class. After 2019 when almost the entire defensive line departed, those guys were thrown in the fire for the last two seasons and got a lot of reps early in their careers. Greg thinks the tackles should be at least as good as last year despite the losses, due to finally being upperclassmen. At any rate, they have the depth and experience to be successful, and there are four other returners in the room (plus a true freshman they’re getting in the fall) who didn’t play last year but look to be the right sizes for the job. So there are more bodies than they need at this unit and it shouldn’t be a problem at all.</p>
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<p id="5puUBQ">The defensive ends may be another matter, however. There are six departures from this unit, including 2021 starter Mika Tafua and backup former 4-star Xavier Carlton, plus 2019 starter Maxs Tupai (I couldn’t tell if he was really on the team or not), Blake Kuithe (the younger brother of the tight end), and a couple of redshirt freshmen. They return the other 2020 4-star, #7 DE Fillinger, who’s living up to billing and should continue as a starter in 2022, but it’s hard to pick out the starter on the other side or who the backups will be.</p>
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<p id="ILVjZo">Two more returners got some experience last year, #83 DE Elliss (son of the new DT coach) and #47 DE Suguturaga. They’re both mid 3-stars, but Elliss came in two years later and is 25 lbs lighter, yet still got substantially more reps than Suguturaga did last year – I think that’s an indication he’s ahead and when I pushed Greg to guess he went with Elliss as the new starter. The only other scholarship returner is #12 DE Wegis who didn’t play last year as a redshirt freshman; Suguturaga barely got off the bench so I have a hard time differentiating him from Wegis.</p>
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<p id="mms7wO">The rest of the room is pretty weird. The guy I saw getting the most reps in the Spring game was a walk-on redshirt freshman, #43 DE Aiono. I didn’t see the former wide receiver they’ve converted to the defense, #81 DE O’Toole, who’s currently listed at 210 lbs and drastically underweight for the role. I also didn’t see the transfer from Stanford, Gabe Reid, a player I’ve always liked as an outside backer in the Cardinal’s 3-down front but a body mismatch since he’s also way too small to be a DE in the Utes’ 4-down front (Greg and I had an interesting discussion on the podcast about Reid and Carlton both being poor body-type fits for this unit). Utah has taken two 2022 recruits who I believe will be ends, but they don’t arrive till the Fall and don’t have the size or talent rating for me to think they will break into the rotation right away.</p>
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<p id="Lz67zg">So I think the four-man rotation they’ll use at end will be Fillinger, Ellis, Suguturaga, and then a mystery player to be determined in Fall camp but I don’t have high expectations of, simply because the options are so limited and there are real question marks for all of them. Greg said he wouldn’t be surprised at all if the walk-on freshman Aiono gets the last backup spot. Given the loss of two pretty talented DEs from last year’s rotation and what appears to be few good candidates to replace them and potentially some real depth issues, I expect the ends to take a step back in 2022.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="NCAA Football: Utah at Southern California" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/LNYFsTWV73WCWo7bKUSE_029GNE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23625652/usa_today_16927499.jpg">
<cite>Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="vqSE3d">The Utes lose both their starting linebackers from last year to the NFL, Devin Lloyd and Nephi Sewell. They also lose three more backers who were all pretty new to Utah (I suspect because this room has gotten too big for what’s usually a 4-2-5 defense and there are some promising new guys coming in), Jeremy Mercier, Trey Reynolds, and Carson Tabaracci.</p>
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<p id="h5srO5">They return #21 LB K. Reid, a low 3-star who walked on last year and became the third guy in the rotation as a true freshman; I thought he looked pretty good. They also return several other backups, including an unrated walk-on #54 LB Furey who was the fourth rotational backer. Nobody else got any substantial reps though, which is surprising considering some of the names here - #55 LB Mata’afa (cousin of Wazzu’s Hercules), brothers #10 LB E. Calvert and #34 LB J. Calvert who were both 4-stars, redshirt freshman 4-star #52 LB Fuaga, Wazzu transfer #46 LB Langi, and FCS transfer #82 LB Woods.</p>
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<p id="JaVKHU">There are three intriguing newcomers to the unit: senior and former 4-star #9 LB Diabate who was Florida’s leading tackler last year, and the 4-star early enrollee freshmen #20 LB Barton and #6 LB Medlock who both played in the Spring game. Greg thinks that Reid will probably get to keep his spot but that Furey will be relegated to special teams due to his athletic limitations, and I agree. We both think that the new guys will probably jump all the other returners (it’s easy to infer from last year’s pecking order that the six scholarship returners not named Reid aren’t ready to play and may be busts). My guess is that the starters will be Diabate and Reid, with the freshmen Barton and Medlock as the backups. It’s tough to say that’s an improvement over last year because Lloyd and Sewell were so good and the 2021 backups had some experience, but it shouldn’t be a huge step back either.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Pr6nLv555fIeFAeGZnLNJ8neOL0=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23625655/usa_today_17440958.jpg">
<cite>Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="REdiew">The defensive backs lose several guys from a unit that had a number of injury (and possibly development) issues last year. The most significant are the safeties Brandon McKinney who’d previously transferred in from Washington and was the Utah secondary’s leading tackler, then Vonte Davis who was one tackle behind him. Kamo’i Latu has also transferred out after playing in the Spring game; both Greg and I think that departure hurts because he showed a lot of promise. Two cornerbacks who were 2019 recruits but got very little playing time the last three years have also transferred, Drew Rawls and LaCarea Pleasant-Johnson.</p>
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<p id="jxFAwC">I think that Utah has two reliable and high quality defensive backs returning: #8 DB Bishop at strong safety and #1 CB Phillips at outside corner (though Greg thinks Phillips should be over the slot instead, something I’ve been saying for years). They may have a third good returner in #4 CB Broughton; Greg is pretty high on him but between the shortened 2020 season and his season-ending injury in 2021 I just haven’t gotten enough eyes on the subject and I’d be concerned about limited development time.</p>
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<p id="Qkb9ld">The rest of the returners didn’t really impress me last year, and I think Greg basically agrees although he noted on the podcast that a few guys were playing out of position and may look better if they were in the proper spots. I think #15 CB Mataele, #23 CB Marks, and #16 DB Vaughn will probably get spots in the rotation next year; I thought they were all coverage liabilities and I think it was telling for the rest of the room that the unrated walk-on Vaughn was being forced to switch to corner after some injury problems. Or as Greg put it regarding the replacement corner in the Rose Bowl, “the fact that Utah went to a running back before they went to [the other DBs] I feel like says a lot …”</p>
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<p id="nnnMwm">There are five other scholarship defensive backs in the room but they got basically zero playing time last year and for the above reasons I don’t think they’re going to make much noise on the depth chart. Greg thinks it’s more likely that we see a promising true freshman, mid 3-star Jocelyn Malaska, and an unrated FCS transfer, Clayton Isbell, though neither was available for Spring practices. In my opinion, the entire secondary has maybe five playable guys, two of whom I think are very good but the rest are kind of question marks. I’d be very worried about depth here, especially given the past injury history.</p>
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<h3 id="sfK7WR"> Accountability Corner</h3>
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<p id="GLLaKd">In <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/5/17/22438049/duck-dive-utah-football-2021-preview">last year’s preview</a>, I pointed out that Brewer seemed like a poor fit for Ludwig’s offense and my suspicions that Rising would get the starting job back as soon as his health allowed, which is exactly what happened. I wrote that with as many good backs transferring in and little in terms of returning production, we’d see a committee approach, which did basically happen although it was clear that Thomas took over. He transferred in after Spring ball and after we recorded our podcast interview so I was a little blindsided there, but I noted that his yards per carry average was the best of the incoming guys so that was a predictable outcome. I got the three starting tight ends exactly correct, including figuring out Kincaid’s role from film study. The wide receiver room went just as described, including Vele as a breakout despite being a walk-on. For the offensive line, I got the guards and center exactly correct (which wasn’t that easy considering the line changed multiple times the year before), but I whiffed badly on the tackles. I had Olaseni listed as a backup but was skeptical he’d even live up to his ideal proportions, and I really didn’t see Daniels switching from guard to tackle and getting out of the doghouse. I don’t know how I could have predicted those things and frankly even with the benefit of hindsight I’m still baffled how they happened, so I’m not sure what lesson to learn here. Still, I expected the line to improve simply from the relative stability and they definitely did that.</p>
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<p id="N0ZEPk">I got three of the four guys in the defensive tackle rotation correct, and one of the misses was due to a Fall injury, but I absolutely didn’t see Tafuna coming – he didn’t play at all previously and completely took over the inside of the line as a redshirt freshman. Similar story with the ends, three of four correct and the miss was a longtime player suddenly departing from the team after I published my article. Unlike the tackles, however, they didn’t find a new guy out of nowhere to take over in a four-man rotation but rather played three primary guys and then sporadic backups, which I think presaged some of the issues I see coming in 2022. I got the starting linebackers right, it would have been hard to miss there, but I took a pass on predicting the backups because it was a bunch of very unproven and somewhat unappealing prospects – the fact that two walk-ons wound up getting the second-string reps I think bore that out. I got the entire starting secondary correct except I didn’t know McKinney was transferring in, but I did get the prediction that the true freshman Bishop would start. Injuries in the unit forced some backups into action every one of the ones I mentioned then saw the field for substantial minutes.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Syndication: Phoenix" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-Dg2BE8unAJKsjO0rXXdvtvEeIE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23625657/usa_today_11592209.jpg">
<cite>Rob Schumacher/The Republic</cite>
</figure>
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/14/23166753/duck-dive-utah-football-2022-previewhythloday12022-06-07T07:01:00-07:002022-06-07T07:01:00-07:00Duck Dive: Oregon State Football 2022 Preview
<figure>
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 27 Oregon State at Oregon" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RFwUsb5_yff6K1i8_DlJY5WNG-0=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/70951321/1236898305.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Brian Murphy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Going deep with the Beavers’ scheme, returning personnel, and unknowns</p> <p id="dcUDE4">Special thanks to <a href="https://twitter.com/travislikesdogs">Travis Johannes</a> of <a href="https://www.buildingthedam.com/">Building the Dam</a> for joining me on the Quack 12 Podcast to discuss Oregon State’s roster. <a href="https://quack12podcast.com/quack-12/2022/6/7/oregon-state-roster-review-with-travis-johannes-2022"><strong>LISTEN HERE</strong></a></p>
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<h1 id="299HBE">Offense</h1>
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<p id="Unfv1n">Oregon State finished with the 19<sup>th</sup> ranked offense in F+, one of four Pac-12 offenses to make the top 20 in advanced stats (the others being Oregon, UCLA, and Utah) before a steep falloff to the 40s for two more teams and then well below for the rest of the conference. Considering OSU’s <a href="https://twitter.com/hythloday1/status/1524752469347028993">modest talent level</a>, I think their performance is a testament to head coach Smith’s well constructed scheme and a playbook that his roster can efficiently execute, which I expect to continue in 2022.</p>
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<p id="3reAXQ">Returning starter #10 QB Nolan will almost certainly keep the job next season for the Beavers. He was beat out in 2020 by #3 QB Gebbia, but got the job for the last three games after Gebbia’s injury. Gebbia re-injured himself before the 2021 season, but when Colorado’s Sam Noyer transferred in Nolan got beat again in Fall camp. But Noyer was pulled halfway through the opener against Purdue for ineffectiveness, and it’s been Nolan’s job ever since.</p>
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<p id="wCgbOV">Nolan’s skillset is a good fit for the offense Smith has designed … or perhaps more likely, the other way around. I think Nolan reliably gets the ball out on short and intermediate passes, doesn’t make a lot of mistakes or deliver an inaccurate throw, and has some escapability in the pocket, and so he can effectively lead the methodical drives this offense calls for. His NCAA passer rating in 2021 was 148.3, a respectable number and better than a lot of higher profile Pac-12 QBs. I don’t see a lot of zip on his throws on long, opposite-hash out routes and I don’t think he has the deep downfield accuracy to generate explosive air yards, but wisely enough this offense doesn’t call for those things.</p>
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<p id="7n3O3G">Noyer and freshman Sam Vidlak have both departed, so the only competition Nolan faces is from Gebbia and 2020 mid 3-star #17 QB Gulbranson, who hasn’t seen the field yet. Travis tells us that OSU media is not convinced that Gebbia is back to full health and with two season-ending injuries already they’re planning on the possibility that Gulbranson becomes the primary backup to Nolan. The only other guys in the room will be walk-on redshirt freshman #14 QB Blair, mid 3-star recruit Travis Throckmorton arriving in the Fall, and in a pinch #12 ILB Colletto who played QB in 2018 and the last three years been their wildcat runner with the occasional surprise pass. I think the depth here is problematic and any unavailability for Nolan would spell a big production problem for the Beavs.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: OCT 09 Oregon State at Washington State" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gsVoZqTbMq1fl5KtPD_R2JupiK4=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23608986/1235797378.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Robert Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="5SevBn">The running backs lose BJ Baylor to the Packers; he rushed for over 1,300 yards last year and led the Pac-12. A couple of high 3-stars who were intriguing prospects but never played have transferred out, Damir Collins and Ta’Ron Madison.</p>
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<p id="Tm8mpm">For all that talent loss, the Beavs’ running back unit still looks pretty strong to me, although it’s not obvious how they’ll sort it out and it should be an interesting Fall camp battle. They return two guys who’d previously transferred in from Power-5 programs, #5 RB Fenwick from South Carolina who was the second-leading rusher, and #21 RB Lowe from Washington who was the third-leading rusher but passed Fenwick in total yards due to a lot of catches out of the backfield (UW had converted him to a wideout but he went back to his HS position with OSU). They also return #25 RB Newell who got a couple carries last year, plus three walk-ons.</p>
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<p id="ed3jHu">OSU added two new players in 2022: true freshman mid 3-star #6 RB Martinez this Spring and Georgia Tech transfer 2019 low 4-star Jamious Griffin in the Fall. Martinez played with the number one offense in the Spring game and looked good enough to challenge for the starting position. Griffin had a promising start to his career in Atlanta but fell behind several very good backs in 2021 and decided to transfer out after he got practically no playing time.</p>
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<p id="vYwcIo">I could see any of those top four becoming the new primary back, or any combination becoming a two- or three-back rotation, although past history indicates Smith probably won’t go to four. At any rate, they’ve got plenty of depth and it’s almost impossible to believe — given the Beavs’ track record and reliance on a dominant run game — that they won’t be able to find the next high quality ballcarrier among them. Travis says that this is one of a couple units on the team that he just doesn’t worry about under Smith, and I think he’s right.</p>
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<p id="oOW5UZ">I think the tight end unit is the most interesting on the entire team because it might indicate some forthcoming structural changes to the offense, something Smith hinted at in a <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/05/is-luke-musgrave-oregon-states-next-great-tight-end-2022-beavers-football-post-spring-analysis.html">recent interview</a> and that Travis and I discussed extensively on the podcast.</p>
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<p id="N6VNo3">Last year, OSU used 12- and 13-personnel sets extensively – the top two were Teagan Quitoriano who was drafted by the Texans and #88 TE Musgrave (of the Ducks’ football family) who returns; both were great receiving options. When they put in a third it was returner #81 TE Overman, but he was used exclusively as a blocker and I don’t believe he got a single target in 2021.</p>
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<p id="QF5dAh">In my <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/11/26/22802944/duck-tape-film-analysis-of-oregon-state-2021">in-season preview</a> of the Beavs last year, I noted that their offensive stumbling block was that when they switched to their spread formation out of the shotgun (which they did on 3<sup>rd</sup> downs or whenever they fell behind the chains) they’d split out the tight ends and the lack of blocking help contributed to lower than expected per-play efficiency.</p>
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<p id="7mesJX">So I expect to see OSU continue with their 12-personnel sets, but there are two open questions here: first if Overman will be able to replace Quitoriano’s receiving threat, and second if they have another viable blocker for 13-pers sets or if a starter becomes unavailable. Given Overman’s lack of a track record and the fact that the rest of the room is five undersized 2021 recruits (of whom three are walk-ons) that they were trying out in the Spring game, my guess is that the answer to both is no.</p>
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<p id="5tBcUo">If I’m right about this situation, then we may see more 11-pers, spread formations, and opportunities for the wideouts than last year. That could lead to increased production, because I thought OSU’s offense got pretty conservative and predictable by the end of the year, and the defenses in their final two games against Oregon and Utah St definitely took advantage. But on the other hand, it might lead to a falloff instead if that extra blocking turns out to be sorely missed. There’s a real tradeoff to be carefully balanced here and we don’t know the values that Smith is working with yet.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: DEC 18 Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl - Oregon State v Utah State" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ehstE50tehXNp2-nKanOm5EqGbo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23608988/1237323128.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="kWNxCN">The Beavs are losing their top receiver in longtime starter Trevon Bradford, an undrafted free agent who signed with the Chargers. They return the second leading receiver in #0 WR Harrison, a 4-star transfer from Florida St who’s been with OSU for the past two seasons.</p>
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<p id="hXcqPZ">In 2021 there was basically a seven-way tie for the third place shared among four wide receivers, two tight ends, and a running back. Of them, wideouts Zeriah Beason and Champ Flemings have transferred out while former 4-star Nebraska transfer #1 WR Lindsey and low 3-star 2019 recruit #15 WR Gould return, and we’ve already covered the TEs and RBs. This means they are returning less than half of their total receiving yards and their wideout-specific receiving yards.</p>
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<p id="cD3zqt">It would be easy to pencil in Harrison, Lindsey, and Gould as the new starters and expect the lion’s share of the targets to go to them, since they’re the top returners and they were running with the ones in the Spring game. But I think there may be more going on here, or at least Smith should be considering it. The departures of Bradford and Beason are significant because they were the taller outside receivers, and since this was usually a 12-personnel offense they were using outside guys on nearly every snap whereas the shorter inside receivers would only come in for their spread formation reps.</p>
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<p id="Pg6rYc">Harrison is 6’1” and I’m sure he’s got a spot, but Lindsey and Gould (as well as returning backups #22 WR Bolden and #13 WR Irish) are all several inches under six foot and look like inside receivers to me. Unless there are truly significant changes to this offense, I don’t think they have enough playing time to go around for that many short wideouts plus multiple tight ends.</p>
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<p id="PEMdBs">I suspect that a couple of 6’2” former 4-stars will jump the queue, #14 WR Dunmore and #9 WR Tongue. They had previously transferred in from Penn St and Georgia, respectively, but got basically no playing time last year. The fact that the ball got distributed around so much in 2021, and the general lack of explosive passing plays, leads me to think there’s some disatisfaction with the returners and I’ll be watching in Fall to see if they shake up this unit with longer and more athletically gifted options. When I brought this up with Travis on the podcast, he too was stumped why Dunmore and Tongue hadn’t played more, and we discussed the possibilities that either those guys aren’t going to live up to billing or that Nolan can’t take advantage of them with his limited downfield game.</p>
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<p id="r4uwzC">The offensive line loses starting center Nathan Eldridge and right guard Nous Keonounnam. They return starters #67 LT Gray, #70 LG Levengood, and #68 RT Kipper, as well as a pair of backups who played substantial minutes in injury relief, #60 LG Brewer and #75 RT Fuaga.</p>
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<p id="alqhGX">Based on the Spring game, those five returners should form the new starting lineup, with Levengood sliding to center, Kipper moving inside to right guard, and Brewer and Fuaga becoming the full-timers. I think it should be a pretty effective line once again, as I believe OL coach Michalczik is the best in the Pac-12 and his track record once he has veterans with several years in the system apiece is excellent.</p>
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<p id="IY77P8">There are a few caveats, however. First, while this team gets the absolute most out of them, all of these guys were pretty modestly rated out of high school and I think their athletic ceilings are limited – we saw them get beat repeatedly going up against top d-lines or just really quick ones like Wazzu and Utah St, and film study revealed that their effectiveness dropped noticeably when they didn’t have tight end blocking help. Second, the position moves always constitute a risk – we don’t know how well Levengood will take to a center’s many duties or how Kipper will take to playing inside, and we don’t have a lot of film on the 335 lbs Fuaga winning against edge rushers with a quick first step.</p>
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<p id="NbgpNj">The third issue is that the backups are totally unknown and inexperienced. Several guys who I might have penciled in had I seen them in the Spring game were being held out with injuries like #58 OL Bloomfield and #55 OL White, and I think several more because I didn’t see a lot of scholarship linemen in Spring at all. What I saw instead with the twos and threes was #71 LT Spencer who’s a converted TE and still at least 35 lbs undersized, five different walk-ons, a new FCS transfer #54 OL McHarg, and a true freshman #57 OL Lopez. That’s pretty dangerous territory since every year in Smith’s tenure they’ve unfortunately had to turn to multiple backups at the o-line, and the options here are extremely green.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Oregon State v Oregon" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/IzBKIaX22shEWO8WpmJv3oAWeYQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23608989/1358890605.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="p1eIZw">
<h1 id="Z4mJ9i">Defense</h1>
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<p id="Ydzvid">OSU finished ranked 91<sup>st</sup> in defensive F+ last season, which was actually their best performance since 2016. Still, it was quite a contrast to the offense and probably a big reason why Tim Tibesar, the coordinator Smith brought in with him in 2018, was let go after the ninth game of the season (an overtime loss to Colorado). New fulltime DC Bray was the linebackers coach at the time and was promoted to interim DC, then Smith made it official just before the bowl game.</p>
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<p id="oPypWB">We therefore have four 2021 games’ worth of data, plus the Spring game, on Bray as a DC. I’ve charted each of them, and while certain credulous media members have called Bray’s style “more aggressive and daring” than Tibesar’s, film study provides no evidence for this conclusion. Their structures of both the front and the secondary are identical, and they have exactly the same correlations between offensive formation, down & distance, and field position, with the defensive choices of box count, man vs zone coverage, and blitz patterns. Bray got in two good games against ASU and Stanford, two teams that had clearly packed it in for the season, before decisive losses to Oregon and Utah St. The Spring game showed exactly the personnel and formational choices as I would have expected had Tibesar been retained.</p>
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<p id="qkKiqc">Travis and I have had two chances to discuss this and in my opinion, there are two primary reasons for the Beavs’ struggles on defense, and neither have much to do with the DC or playcalling. The first is simply the overall talent level, which is pretty modest for the entire team but even lower for the defense than it is for the offense. It’s a truism in the advanced stats community that defensive performance tracks much more closely with talent level than offensive performance does, because the offense has a lot more tools to proactively scheme around talent deficiencies while the defense is reactive and mostly has to rely on their fundamental training and natural aptitude. I think OSU is a perfect demonstration of the principle.</p>
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<p id="KLmZte">The second reason has to do with the defensive line, and it’s same thing I’ve written about repeatedly with Stanford and Cal as well over the years: a 3-4 structure without a nose tackle just doesn’t work. If you’ve run out of bodies to be the big two-gapper you need in the middle, then you’re forced to play your 2-4-5 structure (that you’d normally reserve just for 3<sup>rd</sup> & long passing situations) on every snap. That means either getting run all over, or devoting the inside backers and/or safeties to be full-time run stoppers and now you’re giving up intermediate passes all day. Either way, you’re halfway to a loss before the opening kickoff.</p>
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<p id="Ui7Re6">Last season, OSU got quite a shock when both their projected nose tackles, Jordan Whittley and Evan Bennett, transferred out before the season. At the last minute they converted a 365 lbs offensive lineman to the defense, #76 DL Sio, but he played only a few reps last year, and while he <a href="https://www.oregonlive.com/beavers/2022/05/oregon-states-defensive-line-strength-depends-on-hodgins-sio-2022-beavers-football-post-spring-analysis.html">apparently had a good Spring practice</a> he was held out of the Spring game. The two guys I saw when they played a third linemen were both walk-ons, Alexander Skelton who has since transferred out and #98 DL Anderson who returns. But 3-down reps were fairly rare and mostly reserved for when the offense brought out a heavy package in obvious run situations, on standard downs they were just playing a 2-down.</p>
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<p id="MqIZtP">In 2022, the clearest candidates to be that regular nose tackle and get them back to the 3-4 this structure wants to be are Sio, Anderson, and mid 3-star Juco #94 DL Shippen (who like the other two only got a handful of reps last year). Another possibility is moving #52 DL Rawls or #96 DL Sandberg over to nose – those guys are both getting pretty big as upperclassmen, over 290 lbs now, but have been playing 4-tech for their entire careers in regular rotation.</p>
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<p id="2EzbFJ">I’m not sure if they’ll be able to do that though, because they’re starting to bump up against depth issues in the rest of the d-line unit. In addition to Skelton they lost Keonte Schad, the high 3-star who transferred in from Minnesota last year and immediately took over the line, posting twice as many tackles as anyone else and is now with the Cardinals. It’s also unknown if #99 DL Hodgins, their most experienced career lineman, will be able to play – he’s now undergone two surgeries on his foot and sat out all of last season plus the Spring game. The only other returner with some experience is #90 DL Lolohea, who only played in four games last year and spent a good chunk of them moonlighting as an outside backer, especially in the bowl game. The rest of the room is just #77 DL Fa’amoe, a low 3-star redshirt freshman, #89 DL Briski, an undersized walk-on I saw late in the Spring game, and a couple of recruits arriving in the Fall who won’t be at playing weight.</p>
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<p id="BDo3Ip">If everyone makes it to the Fall season healthy and playable, I would project Sio at nose with Anderson and Shippen behind him, and a four-man rotation of Hodgins, Lolohea, Rawls, and Sandberg at the other two spots in a 3-down front. That would not be the biggest, most talented, or most experienced defensive line in the conference, but it would be adequate to get back to what this defensive structure is supposed to be and I think it’d significantly improve their defensive performance over last year by fixing the biggest single hole they had. However, we don’t know what a lot of those guys’ health or readiness is actually going to be right now, and the depth at this unit is precarious enough that a single bad piece of news could knock things down considerably.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 25 Oregon State at USC" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/x7wQHTAEoeco-siwuGF46IoYvwk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23608990/1235545535.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="0SG8Fn">The Beavs lose their most productive and longest tenured starter at outside backer, Andrzej Hughes-Murray, who signed an undrafted free agent contract with the Rams. They’ve also lost Addison Gumbs, a former 4-star transfer from Oklahoma who looked great in very limited action but was never healthy.</p>
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<p id="PeQTTf">They return the other longtime starter, #56 OLB Sharp, though he was held out of the Spring game. There are four other returners who played backup last year: #45 OLB Saluni and #82 OLB Stover got most of those reps, and #29 OLB Brownholtz and #9 OLB Franke appeared to be third-stringers. Sharp is a fine player but I’m not wild about the rest of those guys; I thought it was telling both that Saluni as a low 3-star true freshman in 2021 jumped the other three who were 2019 recruits, and that the d-lineman Lolohea moved over and was playing ahead of all of them in the bowl game.</p>
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<p id="06jB9V">There are one or two 2022 recruits who might wind up as OLBs but weren’t on campus for Spring, but in a sense they’re getting two more new guys in #6 OLB McCartan and #10 OLB Chatfield. McCartan looks to be fully back from a hamstring injury (he’d last seriously played in 2019) and was playing with the ones in the Spring game; the 4-star Chatfield transferred from Florida midseason and is now available after having to sit out (he’d only played a handful of reps in three years in Gainesville).</p>
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<p id="NCYFUW">My guess is that Sharp and McCartan get the starting spots as the most experienced players, with Chatfield and Stover as the primary backups and the other three scholarship returners plus walk-on #42 OLB Parrella as depth. This unit looks fine to me and should be able to handle an unavailability or two, but unless Chatfield really lives up to billing or one of the true freshmen comes out of nowhere in Fall, it’s hard to believe they’ll exceed last year’s performance and they may even take a step back without Hughes-Murray’s steady production. I don’t think this unit was really the problem last year and I don’t think it’ll be a problem in 2022 either, but as Travis said on the podcast this is a unit he doesn’t worry about but it’s unlikely there are any gamebreakers here.</p>
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<p id="C96AW5">OSU lost one of its two longtime starting inside backers, Avery Roberts, to the Seahawks – he led the conference last year in tackles. They’ve also lost Junior Walling, a mid 3-star freshman who played in the Spring game but subsequently transferred out.</p>
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<p id="Jyi3sy">They return the other starter, #36 ILB Speights. They’ve also been rotating in the backups consistently at this position (good roster planning like this is one of the many reasons I like Smith as a head coach), so #10 ILB Fisher-Morris should be ready to step right in for Speights, and they’ll have fairly experienced guys behind them in Colletto and #55 ILB Mascarenas-Arnold. There are two more scholarship inside backers behind them — though without any real experience — in #40 ILB Erhart and #20 ILB J. Miller, plus walk-on #41 ILB Allen I saw in the Spring game and a couple true freshman joining in the Fall.</p>
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<p id="rhUqVv">On the podcast Travis indicated that Speights will probably declare for the NFL draft a year early as Roberts did. If that looks to be the case, I would think that this coaching staff will rotate the backups in a bit more in 2022 than they would otherwise to get them some more experience for 2023 – we’ve seen that pattern at a lot of units for the Beavs over the years but especially the linebackers.</p>
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<p id="mlO5PL">Like the outside backers, I think this unit will be fine and has adequate depth, but it’s probably going to perform just at the same level or a step behind last year’s due to the loss of so much production and experience from Roberts. The only real possibility for significant improvement here isn’t in their control, it’s if the defensive line can get back to playing a 3-down front so that the ILBs are freed up to play the pass more, since athletically they have a real tough time reversing to deal with play-action.</p>
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<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="COLLEGE FOOTBALL: NOV 14 Oregon State at Washington" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_6grvDKn8Z-DFU7sYN4l6ah-3gU=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23608992/1229646295.jpg">
<cite>Photo by Jeff Halstead/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</cite>
</figure>
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<p id="lq1Kei">The secondary doesn’t have any significant departures. Safeties Jojo Forest and Arnez Madison have transferred out – Forest left late last September after not playing since 2019, while Madison left after the Spring game and has never played. Cornerback Elijah Jones’ career has stumped me – he was Kansas’ starter in 2020, transferred to OSU but barely played last year, and still got a UDFA contract with the Seahawks.</p>
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<p id="d5oBkm">Everybody else returns, and that kind of stability must be welcome since in the previous two offseasons they’d cycled out a huge number of players. That said, this was a fairly low talent group of defensive backs and shot through with walk-ons - other than the d-line personnel issues, this group was probably the major reason the defense has performed so poorly over the years.</p>
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<p id="3qDdd6">The corners return starters #1 CB R. Wright (he had replaced his brother Nahshon, who was drafted by the Cowboys last year) and #5 CB Austin, plus the primary backup #21 CB Hardge. Wright is a long rangy corner who shows real flashes of athletic talent when he can avoid getting flagged for being grabby, which unfortunately is not real often, and he was held out of the Spring practices with an injury. I’m not thrilled with the rest of the cornerbacks and there’s no real talent or experience in the backups – three of the four I saw in the Spring game were walk-ons and one of those, #19 CB S. Thomas, was the only one who got even a handful of reps last year while low 3-star redshirt junior #4 CB Robinson was limited with an injury. When mid 3-star 2022 recruit Noble Thomas joins in the Fall he’ll be one of only five scholarship corners on the roster. I don’t think this is a great unit to begin with, and a single injury to a starter could be disastrous.</p>
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<p id="ULBlo2">The safeties started two walk-ons last year, #3 DB Grant and #28 DB Oladapo, and that fact says a lot about the rest of the unit. The third starting safety in their predominantly 2-4-5 scheme was mid 3-star Juco #7 DB Julian, who was a pretty good tackler against the run (and they needed him to be given the aforementioned d-line dilemma) though I wasn’t too impressed with his pass coverage. Julian sustained a season-ending knee injury in their seventh game and he wasn’t back for Spring. He was replaced by #0 DB Arnold, who returns as does the rest of this unit.</p>
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<p id="4JYpBA">Grant was also held out of Spring practices with an injury, so we got to see a lot of the backups in the Spring game … it was quite an adventure. There are only two other scholarship returners, #17 DB Riley and #22 DB Russell; neither played last year and they were behind four walk-ons and a new Juco in the Spring game. That Juco, low 3-star #26 DB Cooper, was the nickelback with the ones and I suspect will be a primary backup in the Fall or even challenge for a starting job given the overall poor talent here. Julian’s status is still uncertain, and the last two safeties from the 2022 class haven’t arrived yet.</p>
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<p id="FDnvNv">There will be just seven safeties who came in on scholarship to fill three spots in a nickel defense, only two of whom have played for the Beavs before and only one of those is currently healthy. On paper there are 13 guys in the room; in practice the playable depth here is extremely thin and I expect pass coverage issues to persist regardless of what happens with the rest of the defense.</p>
<hr class="p-entry-hr" id="tWbxHM">
<h3 id="XNXfiV">Accountability Corner</h3>
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<p id="nYJHuT">In <a href="https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2021/6/14/22531489/duck-dive-oregon-state-football-2021-preview">last year’s preview</a> I spent a lot of time discussing the quarterback competition. While I can’t say that I nailed exactly what would happen, I did accurately predict that the job wouldn’t just automatically be Gebbia’s even though he was the 2020 game 1 starter, that Nolan was probably their best option even with Noyer transferring in, and it was worth discussing all the options because it could get complicated, and all those things came to pass. I thought the running backs would do well despite the loss of Jermar Jefferson and Art Pierce the year before, and I did nail that one as Baylor was the league’s leading rusher. I got the starting tight ends right, which was easy, but I also predicted the depth issues which I think will lead to meaningful structural changes this year, which I suspect will surprise some observers. The wide receivers played out exactly as predicted with the exception of not really playing Dunmore and Tongue, something that’s still a puzzle. I got the offensive line perfectly, including the prediction that they could take up to two injuries and still be extremely productive which is precisely what happened.</p>
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<p id="7V4vZQ">I predicted the Beavs would take a step back on defense and they certainly did, including firing their DC. I thought the primary reason was the loss of both nose tackles and that they were likely not going to be able to replace them and therefore would have to go to a 2-4 that couldn’t stop the run, and that’s just what they did. I also thought the Minnesota transfer Schad would shoot to the top of the lineup and he did, but also that his experience was at 3-tech (I even included some film of him with the Gophers) and he wouldn’t be able to solve their nose problem. The rest of the positions, linebackers and defensive backs, were fairly easy to predict though I feel silly for spending so much time talking about Gumbs considering he never played.</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Syndication: Statesman Journal" data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/d6Qma4dcg3acUB_LY6WqnJ-kwkc=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/23608993/usa_today_17242714.jpg">
<cite>BRIAN HAYES / STATESMAN JOURNAL / USA TODAY NETWORK</cite>
</figure>
https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2022/6/7/23155506/duck-dive-oregon-state-football-2022-previewhythloday1